diff --git a/.custodian-brief.md b/.custodian-brief.md index 4c00fa1..2763905 100644 --- a/.custodian-brief.md +++ b/.custodian-brief.md @@ -2,11 +2,20 @@ # Custodian Brief — assembly-economics **Domain:** communication -**Last synced:** 2026-10-12 08:56 UTC +**Last synced:** 2026-10-12 08:58 UTC **State Hub:** http://127.0.0.1:8000 *(adjust if running on a remote machine)* ## Active Workstreams +### Adoption band and jurisdiction scenarios +Progress: 2/6 done | workplan_id: `6b369628-11d2-5418-ba12-5d48238ec3a7` + +**Open tasks:** +- · Sentiment and legitimacy loop `81a7d2fa` +- · Jurisdiction archetypes `863d6962` +- · Global sensitivity per band anchor `b89f22a2` +- · Pre-registered predictions v1 `ebac215f` + ### Reality checkpoints: indicators, prediction register, recurring comparison Progress: 0/4 done | workplan_id: `a878617a-bde6-5690-9b8d-f44c72f253dc` @@ -16,17 +25,6 @@ Progress: 0/4 done | workplan_id: `a878617a-bde6-5690-9b8d-f44c72f253dc` - · Checkpoint protocol and prediction register format `f03b5bbe` - · Baseline checkpoint 2026-Q4 `2d236d7f` -### Adoption band and jurisdiction scenarios -Progress: 0/6 done | workplan_id: `6b369628-11d2-5418-ba12-5d48238ec3a7` - -**Open tasks:** -- · Band anchors including the aggressive self-enhancing case `f0e01f88` -- · Probe all scenarios across the band `48054e06` -- · Sentiment and legitimacy loop `81a7d2fa` -- · Jurisdiction archetypes `863d6962` -- · Global sensitivity per band anchor `b89f22a2` -- · Pre-registered predictions v1 `ebac215f` - ## Inbox Hygiene **Stale unread:** 2 message(s) older than 3 day(s) — triage at session start. diff --git a/WORK-RECORDS.md b/WORK-RECORDS.md index bc44f86..dd225fb 100644 --- a/WORK-RECORDS.md +++ b/WORK-RECORDS.md @@ -17,7 +17,7 @@ | workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0007 | proposed | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0007-gadm-sectors-goods.md | | workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008 | finished | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md | | workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009 | active | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md | -| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0010 | ready | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md | +| workplan | ASSEMBLY-WP-0010 | active | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md | | task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-T01 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-statehub-bootstrap.md | | task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-T02 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-statehub-bootstrap.md | | task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-T03 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0001-statehub-bootstrap.md | @@ -66,8 +66,8 @@ | task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-T03 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md | | task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-T04 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md | | task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-T05 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0008-empirical-grounding.md | -| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T01 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md | -| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T02 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md | +| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T01 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md | +| task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T02 | done | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md | | task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T03 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md | | task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T04 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md | | task | ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T05 | todo | — | workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-adoption-band-jurisdictions.md | diff --git a/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-annual.md b/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-annual.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..3e884de --- /dev/null +++ b/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-annual.md @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +--- +id: assembly-checkpoint-annual +name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Annual" +enabled: false +owner: custodian-agent +governance: custodian +status: proposed +trigger: + type: cron + cron_expression: "0 8 20 1 *" + timezone: Europe/Berlin + misfire_policy: skip +context_sources: [] +--- + +# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Annual + +Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance +projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml` +(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`). + +Steady state: full checkpoint on 20 Jan from 2027. + +Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session` +approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows +`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is +authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event +`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`, +`detail.path`. + +```rule +id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-annual +action: + task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (full) — steady phase" + description: > + Run a full reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow + checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against + checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the full indicators from + checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values); + compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write + checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-full.md; append observations; commit and + push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo, + detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path. + target_repo: assembly-economics + priority: medium + labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"] +``` diff --git a/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026.md b/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..5dfcdec --- /dev/null +++ b/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026.md @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +--- +id: assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026 +name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Monthly (Nov–Dec 2026)" +enabled: false +owner: custodian-agent +governance: custodian +status: proposed +trigger: + type: cron + cron_expression: "0 8 15 11,12 *" + timezone: Europe/Berlin + misfire_policy: skip +context_sources: [] +--- + +# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Monthly (Nov–Dec 2026) + +Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance +projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml` +(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`). + +Transition phase: light checkpoints on 15 Nov and 15 Dec 2026. Fires every year; the window guard makes later years no-ops, and the definition is disabled after 2026. + +Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session` +approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows +`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is +authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event +`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`, +`detail.path`. + +```rule +id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026 +action: + task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (light) — transition phase" + description: > + Run a light reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow + checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against + checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the light indicators from + checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values); + compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write + checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-light.md; append observations; commit and + push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo, + detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path. + target_repo: assembly-economics + priority: medium + labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"] +``` diff --git a/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-quarterly.md b/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-quarterly.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..b19c22b --- /dev/null +++ b/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-quarterly.md @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +--- +id: assembly-checkpoint-quarterly +name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Quarterly" +enabled: false +owner: custodian-agent +governance: custodian +status: proposed +trigger: + type: cron + cron_expression: "0 8 15 1,4,7,10 *" + timezone: Europe/Berlin + misfire_policy: skip +context_sources: [] +--- + +# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Quarterly + +Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance +projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml` +(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`). + +Steady state: light checkpoints on 15 Jan, Apr, Jul and Oct from 2027. + +Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session` +approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows +`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is +authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event +`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`, +`detail.path`. + +```rule +id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-quarterly +action: + task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (light) — steady phase" + description: > + Run a light reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow + checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against + checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the light indicators from + checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values); + compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write + checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-light.md; append observations; commit and + push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo, + detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path. + target_repo: assembly-economics + priority: medium + labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"] +``` diff --git a/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily.md b/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..1eda477 --- /dev/null +++ b/activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily.md @@ -0,0 +1,47 @@ +--- +id: assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily +name: "Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Setup (daily, 13–15 Oct 2026)" +enabled: false +owner: custodian-agent +governance: custodian +status: proposed +trigger: + type: cron + cron_expression: "0 8 13-15 10 *" + timezone: Europe/Berlin + misfire_policy: skip +context_sources: [] +--- + +# Assembly Economics Checkpoint — Setup (daily, 13–15 Oct 2026) + +Domain definition owned by `assembly-economics` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010). Railiance +projection: `activity-core/k8s/railiance/20-runtime.yaml` +(ConfigMap `actcore-external-activity-definitions`). + +Setup phase: daily light checkpoints on 13-15 Oct 2026 to verify the pipeline end to end. Fires on 13-15 Oct of every year; the executor's window guard (checkpoints/schedule.md) turns later years into no-ops, and the definition is disabled after 2026 (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T04). + +Execution: rein-aharness claims the ops_run and runs the `agent-session` +approach in the `assembly-economics` checkout. The session follows +`checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md`; the window guard in `checkpoints/schedule.md` is +authoritative for dates. Completion: State Hub progress event +`assembly_checkpoint` with `detail.repo`, `detail.date`, `detail.kind`, +`detail.path`. + +```rule +id: emit-assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily +action: + task_template: "Assembly Economics reality checkpoint (light) — setup phase" + description: > + Run a light reality checkpoint for assembly-economics. Follow + checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md exactly: window check against + checkpoints/schedule.md first; collect the light indicators from + checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md with sources (never invent values); + compare against checkpoints/predictions.md; write + checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-light.md; append observations; commit and + push; post progress event_type=assembly_checkpoint with detail.repo, + detail.date, detail.kind, detail.path. + target_repo: assembly-economics + priority: medium + labels: ["agent-session", "assembly-checkpoint", "research", "automated"] +``` diff --git a/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md b/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9362899 --- /dev/null +++ b/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md @@ -0,0 +1,37 @@ +# Checkpoint indicator catalog + +**Status:** v0.1 (minimal, for setup runs). ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01 extends it to +full sensor bundles for all stocks (`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`). + +Jurisdictions: **US**, **EU** (with Germany where available), **Argentina** +(the owner's hypotheses: the EU lags, Argentina may thrive). Add others only +with a reason. + +Mapping caveat: these indicators are *proxies*. None of them equals the model +quantity. Band positions are judged from several proxies together, never from +one. + +## Light checkpoint: adoption, investment, sentiment, legislation + +| # | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Primary source | Model quantity (proxy for) | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| L1 | Share of firms using AI to produce goods or services | US | U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) | K_Ω adoption breadth | +| L2 | Share of enterprises using AI technologies | EU, DE | Eurostat, ICT usage in enterprises (AI module) | K_Ω adoption breadth | +| L3 | AI use by firms or workers | AR | INDEC / national ICT surveys, or OECD / IDB regional data | K_Ω adoption breadth | +| L4 | Share of tasks or conversations by occupation; automation vs. augmentation | global, per country where published | Anthropic Economic Index; comparable usage indices | K_Ω task share, automation share | +| L5 | AI-related investment (data-center capex, information-processing equipment) as share of GDP or of GDP growth | US, EU | BEA; Fed / central bank notes; company capex guidance | organism investment `aO` | +| L6 | Public sentiment toward AI (benefit vs. harm, trust) | US, EU, AR | Pew Research; Eurobarometer; Edelman Trust Barometer; Latinobarómetro | sentiment Σ | +| L7 | AI legislation milestones since the last checkpoint | US (federal and state), EU (AI Act implementation), AR | official journals; legislative trackers | legislation levers (permissiveness, `m`, `expl`) | + +## Full checkpoint: additions (annual) + +| # | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Primary source | Model quantity | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| F1 | Labour share of income | US, EU, AR | BLS / BEA, Eurostat, INDEC | claims breadth B, wage share | +| F2 | Market concentration (top-firm sales shares, HHI) in digital sectors | US, EU | competition authorities, academic trackers | domination P (market, infrastructure channels) | +| F3 | Leading-firm displacement / persistence | US | Bessen et al. series and updates | self-reinforcement r_k | +| F4 | Time use: leisure, TV, social media | US (ATUS), EU (HETUS where available) | BLS ATUS; DataReportal | attention headroom A | +| F5 | Informal care hours | US, EU | AARP/NAC; Eurofound | care load | +| F6 | Displaced-worker re-employment by age | US | BLS Displaced Worker Survey (biennial) | senior agency modifiers | +| F7 | Public R&D share of GDP; open-source investment initiatives | US, EU, DE | OECD MSTI; national data | commons investment IX | +| F8 | Energy use of data centers | US, EU | IEA; national energy agencies | ecological draw of K_Ω (`e2`) | diff --git a/checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md b/checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..6b14bd1 --- /dev/null +++ b/checkpoints/PLAYBOOK.md @@ -0,0 +1,56 @@ +# Checkpoint playbook (executor instructions) + +You are running a **reality checkpoint** for the `assembly-economics` +repository. Work only inside this repository. Keep the run within budget: +a `light` checkpoint should take well under 15 minutes. + +## Steps + +1. Determine today's date in Europe/Berlin and the run kind (`light` or + `full`) from the task title. +2. Read `checkpoints/schedule.md`. If today is not inside an active window for + this kind, write `checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-out-of-window.md` (one line + saying so), commit, push, post the completion event with `in_band: 0`, + and stop. +3. Read `checkpoints/README.md` (protocol) and `checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md`. +4. For each indicator of this kind, search for the most recent published + value. Prefer the primary source listed in the catalog. Record value, + unit, reference period, publication date and URL. If you can't find it, + record `not found` and the sources tried. Do **not** estimate or invent + values. +5. Compare with `checkpoints/predictions.md` where an entry exists. +6. Write the record using the template below, then append the observations + to `predictions.md` under the matching entries (append-only). +7. Commit with the message `Checkpoint YYYY-MM-DD ()`, then push. +8. Post the completion event (README step 7). + +If something blocks you (no network, push rejected, catalog missing), still +write the record with the blocker stated, and report the failure. A recorded +failure is a valid outcome of a setup run. + +## Record template + +```markdown +# Checkpoint YYYY-MM-DD () + +- Model version: +- Phase: +- Executor: + +## Observations + +| Indicator | Jurisdiction | Value | Unit | Reference period | Published | Source | Band position | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| + +## Assessment + +- : ; notable changes; surprises. + +## Not found + +- : sources tried + +## Follow-ups + +- +``` diff --git a/checkpoints/README.md b/checkpoints/README.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..e871004 --- /dev/null +++ b/checkpoints/README.md @@ -0,0 +1,41 @@ +# Reality checkpoints + +Regular comparison of the GADM adoption band and model readings with +observed economic, sociological and technical data. Method: +`research/ScenarioBandMethod.md` § 6. Workplan: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010. + +## Files + +| File | Purpose | +|---|---| +| `schedule.md` | phase windows; every run checks it first | +| `PLAYBOOK.md` | step-by-step instructions for the executing agent | +| `IndicatorCatalog.md` | indicators, jurisdictions, sources, mapping to model quantities | +| `predictions.md` | append-only register of pre-registered predictions | +| `YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-.md` | one record per checkpoint run | + +## Protocol + +1. **Window check.** Is today inside an active window in `schedule.md` for + this kind? If not, record an `out-of-window` no-op and stop. +2. **Collect.** Gather the indicators for this kind from `IndicatorCatalog.md`: + `light` = adoption, investment and sentiment indicators; `full` = all + catalog sections. Use the most recent published value, and record value, + unit, reference period, publication date and source URL. Never invent a + value: if it isn't found, record `not found` and the sources tried. +3. **Compare.** For every indicator with an entry in `predictions.md`, locate + the observation in the band (which anchor B1–B4 it tracks), and mark it + *inside* or *outside* the band. Indicators without a registered prediction + are recorded as observations only. +4. **Assess.** Short notes per jurisdiction: which archetype and band anchor + reality currently tracks, notable legislation or sentiment changes, and + surprises. +5. **Record.** Write `checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-.md` from the template + in `PLAYBOOK.md`. Append the observations to the matching entries in + `predictions.md`. Never edit earlier predictions or observations. +6. **No silent re-tuning.** Model changes suggested by a checkpoint become an + intake (`intakes/intakes.md`) or a workplan task. Parameter changes go + through `models/ParameterGrounding.md`. +7. **Complete.** Commit and push, then post a State Hub progress event with + `event_type: assembly_checkpoint` and `detail`: `repo`, `date`, `kind`, + `path`, `in_band`, `out_of_band`, `not_found`. diff --git a/checkpoints/predictions.md b/checkpoints/predictions.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..21faac1 --- /dev/null +++ b/checkpoints/predictions.md @@ -0,0 +1,25 @@ +# Prediction register (append-only) + +Pre-registered predictions from the current model version, and the +observations recorded against them at later checkpoints. **Never edit or +delete an entry.** Revised predictions are added as new entries that +reference the entry they supersede. + +The first substantive predictions (band ranges per anchor for catalog +indicators) are written by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06. Until then, checkpoints +record observations only. + +## Entry format + +```markdown +### P-YYYY-NNN — (), horizon +- Registered: , model , by +- Proxy mapping: +- Band: B1 · B2 · B3 · B4 +- Observations: + - : () → +``` + +## Entries + +(none yet) diff --git a/checkpoints/schedule.md b/checkpoints/schedule.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..7588e81 --- /dev/null +++ b/checkpoints/schedule.md @@ -0,0 +1,20 @@ +# Checkpoint schedule + +Authoritative phase windows for the reality checkpoints +(`research/ScenarioBandMethod.md` § 6). Cron triggers in activity-core cannot +express years, so **every executor run checks this file first**. If today +(Europe/Berlin) is not inside an active window for the run's kind, the +executor records an `out-of-window` no-op and stops. + +| Phase | Kind | Window (inclusive) | Dates | Trigger definition | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| setup | `light` | 2026-10-13 – 2026-10-15 | daily | `assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily` | +| transition | `light` | 2026-11-01 – 2026-12-31 | 15th of each month | `assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026` | +| steady | `light` | from 2027-01-01 | 15 Jan / Apr / Jul / Oct | `assembly-checkpoint-quarterly` | +| steady | `full` | from 2027-01-01 | 20 Jan | `assembly-checkpoint-annual` | + +All runs fire at 08:00 Europe/Berlin. + +**Housekeeping:** after 2026-12-31, disable `assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily` +and `assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026` in activity-core (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T04). +The window guard above makes a late disable harmless. diff --git a/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md b/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md index b0ef92a..673c260 100644 --- a/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md +++ b/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md @@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ trackers. Store in `checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md`, linked to ```task id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02 -status: todo +status: progress priority: high state_hub_task_id: "f03b5bbe-a40f-54a6-a77f-cdf18cc77950" ```