ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T04: export channel (xport), H2 split (output yes from 4.5 % of GDP exports without the loop; VFAC no); CrossBorder § 7; CB6 indicator
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
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@ -38,6 +38,7 @@ cd simulations/gadm02 && python3 -B calibrate_data.py && python3 -B calibrated_r
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cd simulations/gadm02 && for j in US EU; do python3 -B gsa.py --model gadm04 --jobs 8 --start $j; done # GSA around calibrated starts, ~30 min
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cd simulations/gadm02 && python3 -B cross_border.py # coupled world US/EU/AR from the calibrated start (models/CrossBorder.md)
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cd simulations/gadm02 && python3 -B world_scenarios.py # contexts X1–X4, hypothesis re-test, local vs. global
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cd simulations/gadm02 && python3 -B exports.py # export channel and the "Argentina may thrive" hypothesis
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cd simulations/gadm02 && python3 -B matching.py && python3 -B matching.py --imm # model matching; IMM flip-detection acceptance test (~6 min)
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```
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@ -249,3 +249,13 @@ an investment indicator (`research/ModelMatching.md` § 4.2). Hyperscaler
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capital expenditure (company filings) is a second candidate, but the 2026
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guidance figures conflict across sources and are not audited quarterly
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values.
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## Export indicator for Argentina (ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T04)
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| ID | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| CB6 | Knowledge-based services exports (USD; % of GDP) | AR | INDEC, Balance of payments / knowledge-economy reports (USD 9.6 bn in 2025) | manual | q |
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CB6 tells whether Argentina moves toward the export path that would let it
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out-grow the EU on output (`models/CrossBorder.md` § 7): from about 4.5 % of
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GDP upward.
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@ -282,3 +282,46 @@ Readings:
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overshoots (1.52). κ is therefore not identified by today's data, and the prior
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0.8 does not double-count the calibrated adoption speed. κ matters only when
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the frontier pulls far ahead (context X3).
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## 7. Export channel and "Argentina may thrive" (WP-0016-T04)
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`gadm02` parameter `xport` (default 0) adds foreign demand for
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organism-enabled output: `dem += xport · K_Ω`. Argentina's
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knowledge-based services exports were USD 9.6 bn in 2025 (INDEC, +8.1 %),
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about 1.5 % of GDP. The sector's goal is USD 30 bn (about 4.5 %). `exports.py`
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sets Argentina's export demand to a share of its domestic demand at the
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calibrated start (`results/exports.md`).
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| Context, loop | Export share | AR Ȳ 0–25 / 0–100 | EU Ȳ 0–25 / 0–100 | AR − EU VFAC |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| X1, off | none | 0.99 / 0.81 | 1.01 / 0.85 | −0.041 |
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| X1, off | 1.5 % (today, upper bound) | 1.00 / 0.82 | 1.01 / 0.85 | −0.042 |
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| X1, off | 4.5 % (sector goal) | **1.03** / 0.85 | 1.01 / 0.85 | −0.045 |
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| X1, off | 10 % (export hub) | **1.07 / 0.90** | 1.02 / 0.85 | −0.052 |
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| X1, on | 10 % | 0.93 / 0.71 | 0.95 / 0.76 | −0.040 |
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| X2, off | 10 % | **1.14** / 1.00 | 1.09 / 1.01 | −0.071 |
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Ȳ is relative to each jurisdiction's own start.
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Readings:
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1. **H2a, output: Argentina can out-grow the EU through exports, but only
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well above today's level.** At the sector goal (4.5 % of GDP), early output
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growth passes the EU's. As an export hub (10 %), long-run growth does too.
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Today's knowledge-services exports, even counted fully as organism-enabled,
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do not change the result. With the legitimacy loop on, Argentina stays
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behind in every case.
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2. **H2b, VFAC: no.** More exports lower Argentina's VFAC relative to the EU
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(−0.041 → −0.052 in X1, −0.055 → −0.071 in X2). The extra organism capacity
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brings more displacement and attention extraction, while domination stays
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at 0.83, all of it run from abroad.
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3. **"Thriving" therefore splits.** A J2 jurisdiction can become richer through
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AI-enabled exports, but not better off on the program's measure, as long as
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its domination channels are foreign-run and its levers deregulated.
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Checkpoint indicators that would show the path: knowledge-services exports
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(INDEC, quarterly), and L3 adoption for Argentina.
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Caveats: export demand scales only with Argentina's own K_Ω (no price or
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competition effects, no partner demand). Adding it at t 0 shifts the
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calibrated rest point slightly; this is negligible at 1.5 % and noticeable at
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10 %.
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64
simulations/gadm02/exports.py
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64
simulations/gadm02/exports.py
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@ -0,0 +1,64 @@
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"""Export channel and the "Argentina may thrive" hypothesis (ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T04).
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Argentina's knowledge-based services exports were USD 9.6 bn in 2025 (INDEC),
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about 1.5 % of GDP; the sector's goal is USD 30 bn (about 4.5 %). The export
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channel adds foreign demand for organism-enabled output, dem += xport * K_Omega
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(gadm02 `xport`). xport is set so that at the calibrated start the export
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demand equals the given share of domestic demand. Upper bound for today: all
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knowledge-services exports count as organism-enabled.
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Usage: python3 -B simulations/gadm02/exports.py
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import sys
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from pathlib import Path
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sys.dont_write_bytecode = True
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import cross_border as cb # noqa: E402
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import gadm04 as g # noqa: E402
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import world as w # noqa: E402
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from world_scenarios import CONTEXTS, build, summ # noqa: E402
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OUT = Path(__file__).resolve().parent / "results"
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SHARES = {"closed (no exports)": 0.0, "today, upper bound (1.5 %)": 0.015,
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"sector goal (4.5 %)": 0.045, "export hub (10 %)": 0.10}
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def xport_for(share: float, p: dict, s: dict) -> float:
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_d, a = g.derivatives({**g.INIT, **s}, {**g.PARAMS, **p})
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return share * a["dem"] / s["Ko"]
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def main() -> None:
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OUT.mkdir(exist_ok=True)
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cal = cb.base()
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ar_p, ar_s = cal["AR"]
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lines = [f"# {g.MODEL_VERSION}: export channel and the 'Argentina may thrive' hypothesis", "",
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"Generated by `simulations/gadm02/exports.py` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T04). World of",
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"`world_scenarios.py` (US, EU, AR, J4; Calibration v0.5). Argentina's export demand for",
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"organism-enabled output is set to a share of its domestic demand at the start. Ȳ relative to",
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"own start. H2 holds if AR beats the EU on relative output (years 0–100) and on VFAC.", "",
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"| Context | Loop | Export share | AR Ȳ 0–25 / 0–100 | EU Ȳ 0–25 / 0–100 | AR − EU VFAC t100 | AR P t100 | H2 |",
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"|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|"]
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for cname in ("X1 US-led concentrated frontier", "X2 open-lineage world"):
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for lp, sent in (("off", 0.0), ("on", 1.0)):
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for label, share in SHARES.items():
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x = xport_for(share, ar_p, ar_s)
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wd = build(cal, CONTEXTS[cname], sent)
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wd["AR"]["p"] = {**wd["AR"]["p"], "xport": x}
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rows = w.simulate_world(wd)
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ar, eu = summ(rows["AR"]), summ(rows["EU"])
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h2 = ar["Y100"] > eu["Y100"] and ar["V100"] > eu["V100"]
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lines.append(f"| {cname} | {lp} | {label} | {ar['Y25']:.2f} / {ar['Y100']:.2f} | "
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f"{eu['Y25']:.2f} / {eu['Y100']:.2f} | {ar['V100'] - eu['V100']:+.3f} | {ar['P']:.2f} | "
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f"{'yes' if h2 else 'no'} |")
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lines.append("")
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(OUT / "exports.md").write_text("\n".join(lines))
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print("\n".join(lines))
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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main()
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@ -39,6 +39,9 @@ PARAMS = {
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"wm": 0.35, "ws": 0.20, "wc": 0.15, "wp": 0.15, "wo": 0.30,
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# claims on output (§ 9) + participation claims C_p
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"wL0": 0.60, "auto": 0.6, "dshare": 0.10, "cp": 0.0, "od": 0.20,
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# ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T04: foreign demand for organism-enabled output (exports), dem += xport * K_Omega.
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# 0 = closed economy (default; all earlier results unchanged).
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"xport": 0.0,
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# commons (§ 7)
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"aX": 0.30, "rho0": 0.30, "rhoO": 0.40, "IX": 0.02, "dX": 0.04,
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"lX": 0.06, "lXo": 0.06,
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@ -88,7 +91,7 @@ def auxiliaries(s: dict, p: dict) -> dict:
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cap = 1 - wl
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priv = cap * max(0.0, 1 - p["dshare"] - p["cp"])
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B = min(1.0, wl + cap * (p["dshare"] + p["cp"]) + priv * p["od"])
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dem = (0.4 + 0.6 * B) * (0.6 + 0.4 * S)
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dem = (0.4 + 0.6 * B) * (0.6 + 0.4 * S) + p.get("xport", 0.0) * Ko
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v_h = p["v0"] * (H ** p["eH"]) * (X ** p["eX"]) * (F ** p["eF"]) * (G ** p["eG"]) \
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* (N ** p["eN"]) * (Q ** p["eQ"]) * ((1 - P) ** p["eP"])
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25
simulations/gadm02/results/exports.md
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25
simulations/gadm02/results/exports.md
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@ -0,0 +1,25 @@
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# GADM-0.4: export channel and the 'Argentina may thrive' hypothesis
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Generated by `simulations/gadm02/exports.py` (ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T04). World of
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`world_scenarios.py` (US, EU, AR, J4; Calibration v0.5). Argentina's export demand for
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organism-enabled output is set to a share of its domestic demand at the start. Ȳ relative to
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own start. H2 holds if AR beats the EU on relative output (years 0–100) and on VFAC.
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| Context | Loop | Export share | AR Ȳ 0–25 / 0–100 | EU Ȳ 0–25 / 0–100 | AR − EU VFAC t100 | AR P t100 | H2 |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | closed (no exports) | 0.99 / 0.81 | 1.01 / 0.85 | -0.041 | 0.83 | no |
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| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 1.00 / 0.82 | 1.01 / 0.85 | -0.042 | 0.83 | no |
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| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | sector goal (4.5 %) | 1.03 / 0.85 | 1.01 / 0.85 | -0.045 | 0.83 | no |
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| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | export hub (10 %) | 1.07 / 0.90 | 1.02 / 0.85 | -0.052 | 0.83 | no |
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| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | closed (no exports) | 0.90 / 0.68 | 0.95 / 0.76 | -0.036 | 0.78 | no |
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| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 0.91 / 0.69 | 0.95 / 0.76 | -0.037 | 0.78 | no |
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| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | sector goal (4.5 %) | 0.92 / 0.70 | 0.95 / 0.76 | -0.038 | 0.78 | no |
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| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | export hub (10 %) | 0.93 / 0.71 | 0.95 / 0.76 | -0.040 | 0.78 | no |
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| X2 open-lineage world | off | closed (no exports) | 1.06 / 0.93 | 1.09 / 1.01 | -0.055 | 0.66 | no |
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| X2 open-lineage world | off | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 1.07 / 0.94 | 1.09 / 1.01 | -0.057 | 0.66 | no |
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| X2 open-lineage world | off | sector goal (4.5 %) | 1.10 / 0.96 | 1.09 / 1.01 | -0.061 | 0.66 | no |
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| X2 open-lineage world | off | export hub (10 %) | 1.14 / 1.00 | 1.09 / 1.01 | -0.071 | 0.66 | no |
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| X2 open-lineage world | on | closed (no exports) | 0.99 / 0.84 | 1.05 / 0.96 | -0.048 | 0.62 | no |
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| X2 open-lineage world | on | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 1.00 / 0.85 | 1.05 / 0.96 | -0.049 | 0.62 | no |
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| X2 open-lineage world | on | sector goal (4.5 %) | 1.01 / 0.86 | 1.05 / 0.96 | -0.051 | 0.62 | no |
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| X2 open-lineage world | on | export hub (10 %) | 1.03 / 0.87 | 1.05 / 0.96 | -0.055 | 0.62 | no |
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@ -72,11 +72,19 @@ start with J4 levers.
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```task
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id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T04
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status: todo
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status: done
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priority: low
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state_hub_task_id: "b638c044-91ae-5629-9913-3f1c64b9eb21"
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```
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**Done 2026-10-13 (export channel C6):** `xport` in gadm02 (default 0),
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`exports.py`, `models/CrossBorder.md` § 7. H2 splits: on output, Argentina can
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out-grow the EU only at export shares from the sector goal (4.5 % of GDP)
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upward, and only without the legitimacy loop. On VFAC it never does, because
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exports raise displacement and attention extraction while domination stays
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foreign-run. Talent (C7) and sentiment contagion (C8) were not needed for any
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reading so far.
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Add C6 (trade in organism output), C7 (talent and founders) and C8
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(sentiment contagion) only where a reading depends on them. First check
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whether H2 ("Argentina may thrive") changes with an export channel. That is
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