diff --git a/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md b/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md index 5f164f6..0c91937 100644 --- a/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md +++ b/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md @@ -236,3 +236,16 @@ channel, the strength of host access rules, and frontier access. CB2 is the observable for the access-rule strength a. At the 2026-10-13 review it gave a ≈ 0 (at most 0.006 per year). + +## Investment indicator for the regime filter (ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T06) + +| ID | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| L5b | Private construction put in place, Office (includes data centers), SAAR | US | Census Construction Spending, `https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/xlsx/release.xlsx`, Table 1 (second "Office" row = private) | file (fixed layout; last 5 months + year-ago month) | m | + +L5b is closer to organism investment than L5, which covers all +information-processing equipment. The regime filter's reliability rests on +an investment indicator (`research/ModelMatching.md` § 4.2). Hyperscaler +capital expenditure (company filings) is a second candidate, but the 2026 +guidance figures conflict across sources and are not audited quarterly +values. diff --git a/simulations/gadm02/observed_series.json b/simulations/gadm02/observed_series.json index 2a763fa..658e833 100644 --- a/simulations/gadm02/observed_series.json +++ b/simulations/gadm02/observed_series.json @@ -252,6 +252,38 @@ 0.8519 ] ] + }, + "US_dc_construction": { + "indicator": "L5b", + "unit": "millions of USD, SAAR (private office construction, includes data centers)", + "source": "U.S. Census Bureau, Construction Spending release 2026-10-01 (https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/xlsx/release.xlsx), Table 1, private Office: Aug 2025, Apr-Aug 2026. Data centers are reported within Office and drive its growth (+29.8 % yoy while office proper is weak). Operator: proportional to gross organism investment; preferred over L5 for the regime filter", + "log_sigma": 0.05, + "points": [ + [ + 0.0, + 103300 + ], + [ + 0.6667, + 111220 + ], + [ + 0.75, + 115159 + ], + [ + 0.8333, + 121940 + ], + [ + 0.9167, + 128199 + ], + [ + 1.0, + 134119 + ] + ] } } } diff --git a/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-reliable-flip-detection.md b/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-reliable-flip-detection.md index e469bc0..9c4f289 100644 --- a/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-reliable-flip-detection.md +++ b/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-reliable-flip-detection.md @@ -96,13 +96,15 @@ years (`matching.py --synthetic`). Add the criteria as a slow test. ```task id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T05 -status: wait +status: todo priority: medium state_hub_task_id: "93477fd0-6d90-51dd-a41a-75a22715bf29" ``` -Waits for T06 (T04 passed, but the result rests on an AI-specific investment -series). Then run matching at every full checkpoint (optionally at light ones), report the current regime and any flip candidates in the +Unblocked 2026-10-13 (T04 passed, T06 provides L5b). First extend +`main_observed` to the IMM filter with the observed series (adoption, L5b, +discovery, sentiment once available), then run matching at every full +checkpoint (optionally at light ones), report the current regime and any flip candidates in the checkpoint record, and coordinate the runner change with WP-0014 (governed execution profile). @@ -110,11 +112,17 @@ execution profile). ```task id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T06 -status: todo +status: done priority: high state_hub_task_id: "97f58120-60b4-5583-82b2-a227031fd989" ``` +**Done 2026-10-13:** L5b, Census private Office construction (includes data +centers; +29.8 % yoy), added to `observed_series.json` (Aug 2025, Apr–Aug +2026) and to the indicator catalog. Hyperscaler capex was considered and set +aside: the 2026 figures are guidance and conflict across sources. Noise for +the filter: log sd 0.05, as tested. + The filter's reliability rests on investment (without it, false flips are 5 of 6). L5 covers all information-processing equipment. Find and wire a series closer to organism investment, for example hyperscaler capital expenditure