Review 2026-10-13: measured Pd, Pmem (StatCounter) and US sentiment (Pew); re-calibration (Calibration v0.2); WP-0011/0012 set up against the calibrated start (ready)

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
2026-10-13 17:17:14 +02:00 · 2026-10-13 17:17:14 +02:00 · 9bd9f6f4b7
commit 9bd9f6f4b7
parent 7ea8068374
9 changed files with 482 additions and 209 deletions
--- a/checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md
+++ b/checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md
@ -0,0 +1,48 @@
+# Review 2026-10-13 (partial): measured values for calibration targets
+
+- Reviewer: claude-code session (ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T01/T02, partial)
+- Purpose: replace literature priors in
+  `simulations/gadm02/calibration_targets.json` with measurements before the
+  cross-border (WP-0011) and flipping (WP-0012) workplans are set up.
+
+## Observations
+
+| Indicator | Jurisdiction | Value | Reference period | Source | Retrieved |
+|---|---|---|---|---|---|
+| P2 leading search engine share (Google) | US | 85.19 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter Global Stats (CSV export) | 2026-10-13 |
+| P2 | DE | 87.84 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| P2 | FR | 88.14 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| P2 | IT | 87.31 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| P2 | ES | 93.78 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| P2 | AR | 93.83 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| P3 mobile OS shares (iOS / Android) | US | 53.50 / 46.46 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| P3 | DE | 27.69 / 72.29 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| P3 | FR | 34.65 / 65.32 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| P3 | IT | 36.60 / 63.38 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| P3 | ES | 26.86 / 73.13 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| P3 | AR | 12.66 / 87.34 % | Sept 2026 | StatCounter | 2026-10-13 |
+| L6 more concerned than excited / more excited / both | US | 52 / 9 / 37 % | survey June 22–28, 2026, n = 3,488 | Pew Research Center | 2026-10-13 |
+| L6 same question | US | 37 / 18 / — % | 2021 | Pew Research Center (as reported in the 2026 release) | 2026-10-13 |
+
+StatCounter's "Europe" region returned no rows, so the EU is approximated by
+the mean of DE, FR, IT and ES.
+
+## Operators applied
+
+- Discovery channel Pd = leading search share.
+- Membrane channel Pmem = HHI of mobile OS shares (the OS duopoly controls the
+  user–organism boundary). The operator is a modeling judgment, so the
+  target range stays ±0.10.
+- Sentiment Σ = 0.5 + (excited − concerned) / 200. US 2026: 0.285. US 2021:
+  0.405.
+
+## Bearing on predictions
+
+P-2026-004 (US sentiment falls while adoption grows): the historical series
+(2021 → 2026, Σ −0.12) runs in the predicted direction. This is a baseline,
+not an observation against the prediction, which starts at checkpoint 0.
+
+## Still priors after this review
+
+Pi (cloud shares), Plin (frontier developers), Pm (F2), A (ATUS), B level,
+E, EU and AR sentiment, AR adoption (L3). They remain WP-0015-T01/T02.
--- a/models/Calibration.md
+++ b/models/Calibration.md
@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 # Calibration of GADM-0.4 to measured data

-**Status:** v0.1 (2026-10-13), ASSEMBLY-WP-0013. Calibrates starting states
+**Status:** v0.2 (2026-10-13), ASSEMBLY-WP-0013, updated with measured
+channels and US sentiment (§ 3.1). Calibrates starting states
 for US, EU, DE and AR. Argentina has no measured adoption growth, so it is
 calibrated only on priors. Most state targets are literature priors that the
 next review must verify against checkpoint data.
@ -76,6 +77,17 @@ The present is between B2 and B3. B1 is ruled out as a description of
 today, and B4 as a description of today's level. B4 can still describe the
 future if self-enhancement starts later.

+### 3.1 Update with measured values (review 2026-10-13)
+
+`checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md` replaced several priors with
+measurements: the discovery channel Pd (leading search share: US 0.85,
+EU 0.89, DE 0.88, AR 0.94), the membrane channel Pmem (mobile OS HHI: US 0.50,
+EU 0.57, DE 0.60, AR 0.78), and US sentiment Σ (Pew 2026: 0.285, down from
+0.405 in 2021). The adoption fit and the anchor verdict did not change.
+Starting domination is now US 0.63, EU 0.67 and **AR 0.71**: Argentina starts
+above the floor, driven by foreign-operated discovery and membrane channels.
+Still priors: Pi, Plin, Pm, A, B level, E, EU and AR sentiment, AR adoption.
+
 ## 4. Readings from the calibrated start (T04)

 `calibrated_readings.py` applies each archetype's levers from the calibrated
@ -86,7 +98,7 @@ present, with the legitimacy loop off and on.
 | R1 rights-first levers give the best VFAC (§ 4.3 of AdoptionBand) | holds | holds | holds | **survives** |
 | R2 the legitimacy loop damps adoption (§ 3.3) | fails under J1 | holds | fails under J1 | **revised** |
 | R3 lagging alone costs early output (§ 4.3) | −0.080 Ȳ | −0.078 | −0.068 | **survives, stronger** |
-| R4 the current regime breaks the domination floor by t 100 | yes (J3) | yes (J1) | yes (J2) | **new** |
+| R4 the current regime breaks the domination floor by t 100 | yes (J3) | yes (J1) | yes (J2; already above at t 0) | **new** |

 1. **R2 revised: the loop's sign depends on the regime.** Under rights-first
   levers, domination falls, perceived benefit rises, and sentiment
--- a/simulations/gadm02/calibration_targets.json
+++ b/simulations/gadm02/calibration_targets.json
@ -1,43 +1,206 @@
 {
-  "note": "Calibration targets (ASSEMBLY-WP-0013-T01). Ranges in normalized model units [0, 1] unless a 'ratio' target. 'measured' = checkpoint 0 data (checkpoints/data/2026-10-12-light.jsonl and the full-source probe of 2026-10-13); 'prior' = literature value as known up to 2025, to be verified at the next review. Observation operators and caveats: models/Calibration.md.",
-  "reference_date": "2026-10-12",
-  "targets": {
-    "US": {
-      "Ko": {"lo": 0.05, "hi": 0.20, "basis": "prior", "op": "task coverage: firm use 23.8 % (L1, measured) times usage intensity; genAI-assisted share of work hours of a few percent (Bick, Blandin, Deming 2024-25); occupations with AI on >=25 % of tasks ~1/3 (Anthropic Economic Index 2025)"},
-      "Ko_ratio_1y": {"lo": 1.30, "hi": 1.60, "basis": "measured", "op": "L1 BTOS Q7 17.3 % -> 23.8 % over 0.85 y: 1.46 per year"},
-      "Pd": {"lo": 0.75, "hi": 0.92, "basis": "prior", "op": "discovery channel ~ leading search engine share (~87-90 %, StatCounter); P2 wires it"},
-      "Pi": {"lo": 0.50, "hi": 0.72, "basis": "prior", "op": "infrastructure ~ top-3 cloud share (~63-66 %, Synergy Research)"},
-      "Pmem": {"lo": 0.40, "hi": 0.85, "basis": "prior", "op": "membrane ~ OS/app-store duopoly controlling the user-organism boundary; wide because the mapping is uncertain"},
-      "Plin": {"lo": 0.45, "hi": 0.80, "basis": "prior", "op": "lineage ~ share of frontier-model usage or spend held by the top three developers"},
-      "Pm": {"lo": 0.40, "hi": 0.60, "basis": "prior", "op": "market ~ top-firm sales concentration in digital sectors (F2)"},
-      "B": {"lo": 0.55, "hi": 0.75, "basis": "prior", "op": "claims breadth ~ labour share plus broad transfers; F1 index 93.4 (2017=100) is measured and gives the trend"},
-      "B_trend": {"lo": -0.010, "hi": 0.000, "basis": "measured", "op": "F1 labour share index -6.6 % over 2017-2026: about -0.005 per year in B"},
-      "A": {"lo": 0.40, "hi": 0.60, "basis": "prior", "op": "self-directed leisure share, ATUS 2023 / DataReportal (WP-0008 grounding)"},
-      "E": {"lo": 0.20, "hi": 0.45, "basis": "prior", "op": "6 of 9 planetary boundaries transgressed (Richardson et al. 2023); national E1 measured but not yet mapped"},
-      "Sig": {"lo": 0.30, "hi": 0.45, "basis": "prior", "op": "Pew: about half of adults more concerned than excited about AI, ~1 in 10 more excited (2023-25)"}
-    },
-    "EU": {
-      "Ko": {"lo": 0.04, "hi": 0.15, "basis": "prior", "op": "as US; enterprise use 19.95 % (L2, measured, 10+ employees)"},
-      "Ko_ratio_1y": {"lo": 1.35, "hi": 1.60, "basis": "measured", "op": "L2 13.48 -> 19.95 % (2024 -> 2025): 1.48"},
-      "Pd": {"lo": 0.75, "hi": 0.93, "basis": "prior", "op": "as US"},
-      "Pi": {"lo": 0.55, "hi": 0.80, "basis": "prior", "op": "top-3 (non-EU) cloud providers' share of the EU market"},
-      "Pmem": {"lo": 0.40, "hi": 0.85, "basis": "prior", "op": "as US; DMA obligations may lower effective control"},
-      "Plin": {"lo": 0.45, "hi": 0.85, "basis": "prior", "op": "mostly non-EU lineages (cross-border, WP-0011)"},
-      "B": {"lo": 0.65, "hi": 0.80, "basis": "prior", "op": "higher labour share and transfers than US (F1 EU proxy measured)"},
-      "A": {"lo": 0.40, "hi": 0.60, "basis": "prior", "op": "HETUS where available"},
-      "E": {"lo": 0.20, "hi": 0.45, "basis": "prior", "op": "as US; E2/E4 measured, not yet mapped"},
-      "Sig": {"lo": 0.38, "hi": 0.55, "basis": "prior", "op": "Eurobarometer: majority see AI as useful but want regulation; uncalibrated"}
-    },
-    "DE": {
-      "Ko": {"lo": 0.05, "hi": 0.18, "basis": "prior", "op": "enterprise use 25.97 % (L2, measured)"},
-      "Ko_ratio_1y": {"lo": 1.20, "hi": 1.45, "basis": "measured", "op": "L2 19.75 -> 25.97 % (2024 -> 2025): 1.31"}
-    },
-    "AR": {
-      "Ko": {"lo": 0.02, "hi": 0.15, "basis": "prior", "op": "no measured adoption (L3 manual); wide prior"},
-      "Pd": {"lo": 0.80, "hi": 0.95, "basis": "prior", "op": "leading search engine share"},
-      "Plin": {"lo": 0.50, "hi": 0.90, "basis": "prior", "op": "foreign lineages only"},
-      "B": {"lo": 0.45, "hi": 0.65, "basis": "prior", "op": "wage share fell sharply in 2024 (INDEC income accounts)"},
-      "Sig": {"lo": 0.35, "hi": 0.60, "basis": "prior", "op": "unmeasured (L6 manual); wide prior"}
-    }
+ "note": "Calibration targets (ASSEMBLY-WP-0013-T01). Ranges in normalized model units [0, 1] unless a 'ratio' target. 'measured' = checkpoint 0 data (checkpoints/data/2026-10-12-light.jsonl and the full-source probe of 2026-10-13); 'prior' = literature value as known up to 2025, to be verified at the next review. Observation operators and caveats: models/Calibration.md.",
+ "reference_date": "2026-10-12",
+ "targets": {
+  "US": {
+   "Ko": {
+    "lo": 0.05,
+    "hi": 0.2,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "task coverage: firm use 23.8 % (L1, measured) times usage intensity; genAI-assisted share of work hours of a few percent (Bick, Blandin, Deming 2024-25); occupations with AI on >=25 % of tasks ~1/3 (Anthropic Economic Index 2025)"
+   },
+   "Ko_ratio_1y": {
+    "lo": 1.3,
+    "hi": 1.6,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "L1 BTOS Q7 17.3 % -> 23.8 % over 0.85 y: 1.46 per year"
+   },
+   "Pd": {
+    "lo": 0.8,
+    "hi": 0.9,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "leading search engine share 85.2 % (Google); StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
+   },
+   "Pi": {
+    "lo": 0.5,
+    "hi": 0.72,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "infrastructure ~ top-3 cloud share (~63-66 %, Synergy Research)"
+   },
+   "Pmem": {
+    "lo": 0.4,
+    "hi": 0.6,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "HHI of mobile OS shares (iOS 53.5, Android 46.5 %) = 0.50; operator uncertain, range ±0.10; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
+   },
+   "Plin": {
+    "lo": 0.45,
+    "hi": 0.8,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "lineage ~ share of frontier-model usage or spend held by the top three developers"
+   },
+   "Pm": {
+    "lo": 0.4,
+    "hi": 0.6,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "market ~ top-firm sales concentration in digital sectors (F2)"
+   },
+   "B": {
+    "lo": 0.55,
+    "hi": 0.75,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "claims breadth ~ labour share plus broad transfers; F1 index 93.4 (2017=100) is measured and gives the trend"
+   },
+   "B_trend": {
+    "lo": -0.01,
+    "hi": 0.0,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "F1 labour share index -6.6 % over 2017-2026: about -0.005 per year in B"
+   },
+   "A": {
+    "lo": 0.4,
+    "hi": 0.6,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "self-directed leisure share, ATUS 2023 / DataReportal (WP-0008 grounding)"
+   },
+   "E": {
+    "lo": 0.2,
+    "hi": 0.45,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "6 of 9 planetary boundaries transgressed (Richardson et al. 2023); national E1 measured but not yet mapped"
+   },
+   "Sig": {
+    "lo": 0.22,
+    "hi": 0.35,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "Pew Research, June 22-28 2026 (n = 3,488): 52 % more concerned than excited, 9 % more excited, 37 % both; Sigma = 0.5 + (excited - concerned)/200 = 0.285; 2021: 37 % / 18 % -> 0.405, trend about -0.024 per year"
+   }
+  },
+  "EU": {
+   "Ko": {
+    "lo": 0.04,
+    "hi": 0.15,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "as US; enterprise use 19.95 % (L2, measured, 10+ employees)"
+   },
+   "Ko_ratio_1y": {
+    "lo": 1.35,
+    "hi": 1.6,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "L2 13.48 -> 19.95 % (2024 -> 2025): 1.48"
+   },
+   "Pd": {
+    "lo": 0.84,
+    "hi": 0.94,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "leading search share, mean of DE 87.8, FR 88.1, IT 87.3, ES 93.8 % = 89.3 %; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
+   },
+   "Pi": {
+    "lo": 0.55,
+    "hi": 0.8,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "top-3 (non-EU) cloud providers' share of the EU market"
+   },
+   "Pmem": {
+    "lo": 0.47,
+    "hi": 0.67,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "mobile OS HHI, mean of DE 0.60, FR 0.55, IT 0.54, ES 0.61 = 0.57; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
+   },
+   "Plin": {
+    "lo": 0.45,
+    "hi": 0.85,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "mostly non-EU lineages (cross-border, WP-0011)"
+   },
+   "B": {
+    "lo": 0.65,
+    "hi": 0.8,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "higher labour share and transfers than US (F1 EU proxy measured)"
+   },
+   "A": {
+    "lo": 0.4,
+    "hi": 0.6,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "HETUS where available"
+   },
+   "E": {
+    "lo": 0.2,
+    "hi": 0.45,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "as US; E2/E4 measured, not yet mapped"
+   },
+   "Sig": {
+    "lo": 0.38,
+    "hi": 0.55,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "Eurobarometer: majority see AI as useful but want regulation; uncalibrated"
+   }
+  },
+  "DE": {
+   "Ko": {
+    "lo": 0.05,
+    "hi": 0.18,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "enterprise use 25.97 % (L2, measured)"
+   },
+   "Ko_ratio_1y": {
+    "lo": 1.2,
+    "hi": 1.45,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "L2 19.75 -> 25.97 % (2024 -> 2025): 1.31"
+   },
+   "Pd": {
+    "lo": 0.83,
+    "hi": 0.93,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "leading search share 87.8 %; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
+   },
+   "Pmem": {
+    "lo": 0.5,
+    "hi": 0.7,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "mobile OS HHI (Android 72.3, iOS 27.7 %) = 0.60; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
+   }
+  },
+  "AR": {
+   "Ko": {
+    "lo": 0.02,
+    "hi": 0.15,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "no measured adoption (L3 manual); wide prior"
+   },
+   "Pd": {
+    "lo": 0.89,
+    "hi": 0.98,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "leading search share 93.8 %; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
+   },
+   "Plin": {
+    "lo": 0.5,
+    "hi": 0.9,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "foreign lineages only"
+   },
+   "B": {
+    "lo": 0.45,
+    "hi": 0.65,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "wage share fell sharply in 2024 (INDEC income accounts)"
+   },
+   "Sig": {
+    "lo": 0.35,
+    "hi": 0.6,
+    "basis": "prior",
+    "op": "unmeasured (L6 manual); wide prior"
+   },
+   "Pmem": {
+    "lo": 0.68,
+    "hi": 0.88,
+    "basis": "measured",
+    "op": "mobile OS HHI (Android 87.3, iOS 12.7 %) = 0.78; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
+   }
  }
+ }
 }
--- a/simulations/gadm02/results/calibrated_readings.md
+++ b/simulations/gadm02/results/calibrated_readings.md
@ -9,45 +9,45 @@ already contains today's permissiveness).

 | Regime | Loop | K_Ω t5 / t25 / peak | Ȳ 0–25 | VFAC t100 | G | A | P t0 → t100 | floors broken |
 |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-| J1 | off | 0.17 / 0.21 / 0.21 | 0.299 | 0.429 | 0.48 | 0.49 | 0.64 → 0.54 | none |
-| J1 | on | 0.13 / 0.26 / 0.26 | 0.302 | 0.423 | 0.48 | 0.48 | 0.64 → 0.55 | none |
-| J2 | off | 0.35 / 0.38 / 0.41 | 0.335 | 0.297 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.64 → 0.70 | P |
-| J2 | on | 0.23 / 0.22 / 0.27 | 0.293 | 0.342 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.64 → 0.65 | none |
-| J3 | off | 0.31 / 0.33 / 0.36 | 0.319 | 0.269 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.64 → 0.79 | P |
-| J3 | on | 0.20 / 0.17 / 0.22 | 0.277 | 0.319 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 0.64 → 0.72 | P |
-| J4 | off | 0.31 / 0.36 / 0.38 | 0.329 | 0.319 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.64 → 0.69 | none |
-| J4 | on | 0.21 / 0.30 / 0.31 | 0.308 | 0.339 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 0.64 → 0.66 | none |
+| J1 | off | 0.17 / 0.21 / 0.21 | 0.299 | 0.424 | 0.48 | 0.50 | 0.63 → 0.56 | none |
+| J1 | on | 0.10 / 0.25 / 0.25 | 0.297 | 0.420 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.63 → 0.56 | none |
+| J2 | off | 0.36 / 0.38 / 0.42 | 0.336 | 0.296 | 0.39 | 0.26 | 0.63 → 0.71 | P |
+| J2 | on | 0.18 / 0.22 / 0.26 | 0.292 | 0.341 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 0.63 → 0.66 | none |
+| J3 | off | 0.31 / 0.34 / 0.37 | 0.320 | 0.269 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.63 → 0.79 | P |
+| J3 | on | 0.16 / 0.18 / 0.21 | 0.277 | 0.319 | 0.41 | 0.32 | 0.63 → 0.72 | P |
+| J4 | off | 0.32 / 0.36 / 0.38 | 0.330 | 0.318 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.63 → 0.69 | none |
+| J4 | on | 0.16 / 0.30 / 0.30 | 0.301 | 0.338 | 0.41 | 0.35 | 0.63 → 0.66 | none |

 ## EU (current regime ≈ J1)

 | Regime | Loop | K_Ω t5 / t25 / peak | Ȳ 0–25 | VFAC t100 | G | A | P t0 → t100 | floors broken |
 |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-| J1 | off | 0.25 / 0.32 / 0.33 | 0.322 | 0.330 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.65 → 0.77 | P |
-| J1 | on | 0.22 / 0.19 / 0.25 | 0.297 | 0.350 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.65 → 0.75 | P |
-| J2 | off | 0.55 / 0.52 / 0.59 | 0.378 | 0.219 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 0.65 → 0.89 | P |
-| J2 | on | 0.41 / 0.13 / 0.41 | 0.279 | 0.279 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.65 → 0.85 | P |
-| J3 | off | 0.49 / 0.49 / 0.54 | 0.367 | 0.211 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 0.65 → 0.90 | P |
-| J3 | on | 0.36 / 0.11 / 0.36 | 0.267 | 0.268 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.65 → 0.87 | P |
-| J4 | off | 0.50 / 0.50 / 0.56 | 0.373 | 0.234 | 0.36 | 0.28 | 0.65 → 0.88 | P |
-| J4 | on | 0.44 / 0.34 / 0.47 | 0.339 | 0.259 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.65 → 0.86 | P |
+| J1 | off | 0.25 / 0.31 / 0.32 | 0.319 | 0.326 | 0.43 | 0.47 | 0.67 → 0.79 | P |
+| J1 | on | 0.22 / 0.19 / 0.25 | 0.295 | 0.347 | 0.45 | 0.53 | 0.67 → 0.76 | P |
+| J2 | off | 0.55 / 0.51 / 0.59 | 0.378 | 0.216 | 0.35 | 0.22 | 0.67 → 0.89 | P |
+| J2 | on | 0.40 / 0.13 / 0.40 | 0.278 | 0.275 | 0.41 | 0.37 | 0.67 → 0.86 | P |
+| J3 | off | 0.49 / 0.48 / 0.54 | 0.366 | 0.208 | 0.34 | 0.21 | 0.67 → 0.91 | P |
+| J3 | on | 0.35 / 0.11 / 0.35 | 0.266 | 0.264 | 0.40 | 0.36 | 0.67 → 0.88 | P |
+| J4 | off | 0.50 / 0.50 / 0.55 | 0.372 | 0.231 | 0.35 | 0.29 | 0.67 → 0.89 | P |
+| J4 | on | 0.44 / 0.34 / 0.47 | 0.338 | 0.255 | 0.38 | 0.35 | 0.67 → 0.87 | P |

 ## AR (current regime ≈ J2)

 | Regime | Loop | K_Ω t5 / t25 / peak | Ȳ 0–25 | VFAC t100 | G | A | P t0 → t100 | floors broken |
 |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-| J1 | off | 0.07 / 0.08 / 0.08 | 0.357 | 0.498 | 0.48 | 0.55 | 0.59 → 0.47 | none |
-| J1 | on | 0.07 / 0.11 / 0.11 | 0.363 | 0.488 | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.59 → 0.49 | none |
-| J2 | off | 0.15 / 0.17 / 0.18 | 0.373 | 0.298 | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.59 → 0.81 | P |
-| J2 | on | 0.13 / 0.10 / 0.14 | 0.353 | 0.347 | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.59 → 0.73 | P |
-| J3 | off | 0.12 / 0.14 / 0.15 | 0.354 | 0.279 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.59 → 0.85 | P |
-| J3 | on | 0.11 / 0.08 / 0.12 | 0.335 | 0.298 | 0.37 | 0.38 | 0.59 → 0.84 | P |
-| J4 | off | 0.13 / 0.15 / 0.16 | 0.368 | 0.313 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.59 → 0.81 | P |
-| J4 | on | 0.12 / 0.14 / 0.15 | 0.362 | 0.322 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 0.59 → 0.80 | P |
+| J1 | off | 0.06 / 0.07 / 0.07 | 0.336 | 0.430 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 0.71 → 0.63 | none |
+| J1 | on | 0.06 / 0.10 / 0.11 | 0.343 | 0.424 | 0.43 | 0.54 | 0.71 → 0.63 | none |
+| J2 | off | 0.13 / 0.15 / 0.16 | 0.349 | 0.292 | 0.37 | 0.35 | 0.71 → 0.83 | P |
+| J2 | on | 0.12 / 0.10 / 0.13 | 0.332 | 0.306 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 0.71 → 0.81 | P |
+| J3 | off | 0.11 / 0.12 / 0.13 | 0.331 | 0.274 | 0.36 | 0.34 | 0.71 → 0.86 | P |
+| J3 | on | 0.10 / 0.07 / 0.11 | 0.315 | 0.286 | 0.37 | 0.37 | 0.71 → 0.85 | P |
+| J4 | off | 0.12 / 0.13 / 0.14 | 0.342 | 0.305 | 0.37 | 0.43 | 0.71 → 0.82 | P |
+| J4 | on | 0.11 / 0.12 / 0.13 | 0.338 | 0.308 | 0.37 | 0.44 | 0.71 → 0.82 | P |

 ## Readings check

 | Jurisdiction | R1 J1 best VFAC | R2 loop damps | R3 lagging costs early output (ΔȲ, ΔVFAC) | R4 current regime breaks P floor |
 |---|---|---|---|---|
-| US | holds | **fails** | holds (-0.080, +0.049) | yes |
+| US | holds | **fails** | holds (-0.080, +0.050) | yes |
 | EU | holds | holds | holds (-0.078, +0.029) | yes |
-| AR | holds | **fails** | holds (-0.068, +0.059) | yes |
+| AR | holds | **fails** | holds (-0.068, +0.027) | yes |
--- a/simulations/gadm02/results/calibrated_starts.json
+++ b/simulations/gadm02/results/calibrated_starts.json
@ -14,8 +14,8 @@
   "E": 0.5,
   "F": 0.4,
   "G": 0.5,
-   "Gs": 0.4135608052230543,
-   "Gw": 0.4423469390792501,
+   "Gs": 0.3802001627244952,
+   "Gw": 0.4119616691879227,
   "Ko": 0.05,
   "Kp": 0.5,
   "Lg": 0.475,
@ -24,11 +24,11 @@
   "Nd": 0.0909,
   "Ns": 0.1705,
   "Nw": 0.5114,
-   "Pd": 0.875,
+   "Pd": 0.935,
   "Pi": 0.45,
   "Plin": 0.7,
   "Pm": 0.5,
-   "Pmem": 0.05,
+   "Pmem": 0.78,
   "Ppol": 0.5,
   "Q": 0.5,
   "S": 0.5,
@ -41,12 +41,12 @@
   "L": 0.2,
   "aO": 0.25,
   "aext": 0.58,
-   "c_d": 0.1686,
+   "c_d": 0.0934,
   "c_i": 0.4354,
   "c_lin": 0.3342,
-   "c_m": 0.0839,
-   "c_mem": 0.2232,
-   "c_pol": 0.4387,
+   "c_m": 0.083,
+   "c_mem": 0.2597,
+   "c_pol": 0.4633,
   "care_load": 0.03,
   "ell": 0.415,
   "expl": 0.2,
@ -64,52 +64,52 @@
 },
 "DE": {
  "init": {
-   "As": 0.5994055133438848,
-   "Aw": 0.5956127821315564,
-   "Cch": 0.4477601514305044,
-   "Cd": 0.346306913236369,
-   "Cs": 0.520221286705607,
-   "Cw": 0.5650251782489758,
-   "Dch": 0.4534707362813133,
-   "Dd": 0.40237157476409424,
-   "Ds": 0.5340524600109721,
-   "Dw": 0.5412386928136026,
-   "E": 0.32477563565261475,
-   "F": 0.406214302229859,
-   "G": 0.4669706393023191,
-   "Gs": 0.45040261789673497,
-   "Gw": 0.4724942817582482,
-   "Ko": 0.11204807623464383,
-   "Kp": 0.4850551504104633,
+   "As": 0.5994680869112339,
+   "Aw": 0.5956745140145546,
+   "Cch": 0.4477308946229111,
+   "Cd": 0.3463065232298026,
+   "Cs": 0.5202136991854523,
+   "Cw": 0.5650065243033202,
+   "Dch": 0.4534177193202591,
+   "Dd": 0.4023715744586903,
+   "Ds": 0.5340524489690092,
+   "Dw": 0.5412381533859043,
+   "E": 0.3247890301689604,
+   "F": 0.40620515777497634,
+   "G": 0.4638249153794165,
+   "Gs": 0.44702012572352084,
+   "Gw": 0.4694274944281725,
+   "Ko": 0.11120201587003738,
+   "Kp": 0.4845529885718244,
   "Lg": 0.465,
-   "N": 0.4698572375568401,
+   "N": 0.4682823225054386,
   "Nch": 0.227299207505914,
   "Nd": 0.0909055888190386,
   "Ns": 0.17049683002365584,
   "Nw": 0.5114007924940861,
-   "Pd": 0.8404433584084035,
-   "Pi": 0.6766597291530182,
-   "Plin": 0.6531611798469636,
-   "Pm": 0.501127281539491,
-   "Pmem": 0.6253005195889499,
-   "Ppol": 0.501258142560581,
-   "Q": 0.4943394590291307,
-   "S": 0.4938336900730911,
+   "Pd": 0.8803752003298085,
+   "Pi": 0.6767101667605153,
+   "Plin": 0.6531140334151384,
+   "Pm": 0.5011880052136072,
+   "Pmem": 0.6002756261055299,
+   "Ppol": 0.5014127662652859,
+   "Q": 0.4938091540425548,
+   "S": 0.4921217856330394,
   "Sig": 0.465,
-   "W": 0.1418269216152224,
-   "X": 0.3815369582316903
+   "W": 0.14181427065953242,
+   "X": 0.3808892870931109
  },
  "k": 1.2968395546510096,
  "params": {
   "L": 0.6,
   "aO": 0.3242098886627524,
   "aext": 0.58,
-   "c_d": 0.2076,
+   "c_d": 0.1627,
   "c_i": 0.3082,
   "c_lin": 0.1545,
-   "c_m": 0.0676,
-   "c_mem": 0.1325,
-   "c_pol": 0.3916,
+   "c_m": 0.0675,
+   "c_mem": 0.1358,
+   "c_pol": 0.3932,
   "care_load": 0.03,
   "ell": 0.538188415180169,
   "ereg": 0.010371111111111112,
@ -129,52 +129,52 @@
 },
 "EU": {
  "init": {
-   "As": 0.6022110730609026,
-   "Aw": 0.5983734070111925,
-   "Cch": 0.42970746216441263,
-   "Cd": 0.36580010332275065,
-   "Cs": 0.5311174279117297,
-   "Cw": 0.5595710782314253,
-   "Dch": 0.43391811311898315,
-   "Dd": 0.40185192950343673,
-   "Ds": 0.540287657581905,
-   "Dw": 0.5444709876184545,
-   "E": 0.32490555368572266,
-   "F": 0.4038418860397113,
-   "G": 0.4669746063705105,
-   "Gs": 0.45067565634436757,
-   "Gw": 0.4724085849934444,
-   "Ko": 0.09295971632748619,
-   "Kp": 0.49089638582919953,
+   "As": 0.6022369802724169,
+   "Aw": 0.5983990586704753,
+   "Cch": 0.4296961098097199,
+   "Cd": 0.3658000277616374,
+   "Cs": 0.531114776281014,
+   "Cw": 0.5595638314034223,
+   "Dch": 0.4338969793417084,
+   "Dd": 0.40185192948881626,
+   "Ds": 0.5402876564242498,
+   "Dw": 0.5444708739472085,
+   "E": 0.32491072972305585,
+   "F": 0.40383829528416304,
+   "G": 0.46362209249277403,
+   "Gs": 0.44706936936879144,
+   "Gw": 0.46914067764474965,
+   "Ko": 0.09236214234529257,
+   "Kp": 0.49057792425006697,
   "Lg": 0.465,
-   "N": 0.48146105429498814,
+   "N": 0.480428523544123,
   "Nch": 0.22729951420364686,
   "Nd": 0.09090351693347513,
   "Ns": 0.17049805681458743,
   "Nw": 0.5114004857963531,
-   "Pd": 0.8401703723438362,
-   "Pi": 0.6756003540121523,
-   "Plin": 0.6512599460981073,
-   "Pm": 0.5003928475923168,
-   "Pmem": 0.625120692559038,
-   "Ppol": 0.5004629080215169,
-   "Q": 0.49647058079417594,
-   "S": 0.4961799846780209,
+   "Pd": 0.8901481224236264,
+   "Pi": 0.6756195094254455,
+   "Plin": 0.6512409883764116,
+   "Pm": 0.5004206843711574,
+   "Pmem": 0.5701391873421384,
+   "Ppol": 0.5005199792487638,
+   "Q": 0.496121516063456,
+   "S": 0.4950179461291722,
   "Sig": 0.465,
-   "W": 0.1415399971647991,
-   "X": 0.3886079776742642
+   "W": 0.14153505661488275,
+   "X": 0.3881824342892735
  },
  "k": 1.4142135623730951,
  "params": {
   "L": 0.6,
   "aO": 0.3535533905932738,
   "aext": 0.58,
-   "c_d": 0.2076,
+   "c_d": 0.1507,
   "c_i": 0.3082,
   "c_lin": 0.1545,
-   "c_m": 0.0676,
-   "c_mem": 0.1325,
-   "c_pol": 0.3916,
+   "c_m": 0.0675,
+   "c_mem": 0.1387,
+   "c_pol": 0.3933,
   "care_load": 0.03,
   "ell": 0.5868986283848344,
   "ereg": 0.010371111111111112,
@ -194,52 +194,52 @@
 },
 "US": {
  "init": {
-   "As": 0.3808104214589926,
-   "Aw": 0.39238875380106325,
-   "Cch": 0.4320585769736019,
-   "Cd": 0.35544705213692934,
-   "Cs": 0.5204128668626581,
-   "Cw": 0.5545180747872985,
-   "Dch": 0.4401863681211243,
-   "Dd": 0.40217734522037146,
-   "Ds": 0.5371446834057223,
-   "Dw": 0.5427658780304737,
-   "E": 0.3247816419156534,
-   "F": 0.4038617318969497,
-   "G": 0.44449715396855705,
-   "Gs": 0.42420018896791334,
-   "Gw": 0.4512640217239816,
-   "Ko": 0.12011417326340354,
-   "Kp": 0.48525994626318303,
-   "Lg": 0.375,
-   "N": 0.47385722318808055,
+   "As": 0.3807387060541207,
+   "Aw": 0.39231553791052187,
+   "Cch": 0.43207432091616804,
+   "Cd": 0.35544687293148663,
+   "Cs": 0.5204083909927092,
+   "Cw": 0.5545192473095811,
+   "Dch": 0.44021580444384073,
+   "Dd": 0.4021773452907872,
+   "Ds": 0.5371446868990992,
+   "Dw": 0.5427661062067165,
+   "E": 0.32477402360599716,
+   "F": 0.40386646797500675,
+   "G": 0.44746771325105483,
+   "Gs": 0.4273800228043242,
+   "Gw": 0.4541648103175681,
+   "Ko": 0.12085960981519464,
+   "Kp": 0.485568315370954,
+   "Lg": 0.285,
+   "N": 0.4750661899740872,
   "Nch": 0.22729935918753863,
   "Nd": 0.09090457861394226,
   "Ns": 0.17049743675015444,
   "Nw": 0.5114006408124614,
-   "Pd": 0.8353792157657403,
-   "Pi": 0.6112274041397924,
-   "Plin": 0.6282575981699254,
-   "Pm": 0.5008035596117066,
-   "Pmem": 0.6257814090803576,
-   "Ppol": 0.5013251909373883,
-   "Q": 0.4940387269388879,
-   "S": 0.488118981076643,
-   "Sig": 0.375,
-   "W": 0.1736376354915976,
-   "X": 0.3830386563827038
+   "Pd": 0.850338836992873,
+   "Pi": 0.61120172693781,
+   "Plin": 0.6282948532035832,
+   "Pm": 0.5007646038707543,
+   "Pmem": 0.5010688516394961,
+   "Ppol": 0.5012170779107693,
+   "Q": 0.4944329020485621,
+   "S": 0.48930053442912297,
+   "Sig": 0.285,
+   "W": 0.17364601012524727,
+   "X": 0.3834924328519065
  },
  "k": 1.8340080864093424,
  "params": {
   "L": 0.1,
   "aO": 0.4585020216023356,
   "aext": 0.58,
-   "c_d": 0.288,
+   "c_d": 0.2661,
   "c_i": 0.3904,
   "c_lin": 0.5618,
-   "c_m": 0.0733,
-   "c_mem": 0.5354,
-   "c_pol": 0.4132,
+   "c_m": 0.0734,
+   "c_mem": 0.576,
+   "c_pol": 0.4114,
   "care_load": 0.03,
   "disc": 0.6,
   "ell": 0.761113355859877,
--- a/simulations/gadm02/results/calibration.md
+++ b/simulations/gadm02/results/calibration.md
@ -8,18 +8,18 @@ range. Adoption scaled from anchor B2 by k; t* aligned by observed growth.

 | Jurisdiction | Archetype levers | k | t* (y) | K_Ω(t*) | fitted wL0 | fitted ereg |
 |---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
-| US | J3 | 1.83 | 1.2 | 0.120 | 0.530 | 0.0099 |
-| EU | J1 | 1.41 | 0.9 | 0.093 | 0.637 | 0.0104 |
-| DE | J1 | 1.30 | 1.5 | 0.112 | 0.637 | 0.0104 |
+| US | J3 | 1.83 | 1.2 | 0.121 | 0.530 | 0.0099 |
+| EU | J1 | 1.41 | 0.9 | 0.092 | 0.637 | 0.0104 |
+| DE | J1 | 1.30 | 1.5 | 0.111 | 0.637 | 0.0104 |
 | AR | J2 | — | — | — | 0.387 | 0.0500 |

 ## Fixed anchors aligned by growth: K_Ω level miss

 | Jurisdiction | B1 | B2 | B3 | B4 |
 |---|---|---|---|---|
-| US | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.058, z -0.9 | K_Ω 0.134, z +0.1 | K_Ω 0.228, z +1.4 |
-| EU | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.063, z -0.6 | K_Ω 0.143, z +0.9 | K_Ω 0.267, z +3.1 |
-| DE | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.083, z -0.5 | K_Ω 0.190, z +1.1 | K_Ω 0.390, z +4.2 |
+| US | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.059, z -0.9 | K_Ω 0.135, z +0.1 | K_Ω 0.230, z +1.4 |
+| EU | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.062, z -0.6 | K_Ω 0.142, z +0.9 | K_Ω 0.252, z +2.9 |
+| DE | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.080, z -0.5 | K_Ω 0.188, z +1.1 | K_Ω 0.384, z +4.1 |

 ## Residuals at the calibrated start

@ -27,28 +27,28 @@ range. Adoption scaled from anchor B2 by k; t* aligned by observed growth.

 | Target | Range | Model at t* | z | basis |
 |---|---|---|---|---|
-| Ko | 0.05–0.2 | 0.120 | -0.07 | prior |
-| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.3–1.6 | 1.432 | -0.12 | measured |
-| Pd | 0.75–0.92 | 0.835 | +0.00 | prior |
+| Ko | 0.05–0.2 | 0.121 | -0.06 | prior |
+| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.3–1.6 | 1.434 | -0.11 | measured |
+| Pd | 0.8–0.9 | 0.850 | +0.01 | measured |
 | Pi | 0.5–0.72 | 0.611 | +0.01 | prior |
-| Pmem | 0.4–0.85 | 0.626 | +0.00 | prior |
+| Pmem | 0.4–0.6 | 0.501 | +0.01 | measured |
 | Plin | 0.45–0.8 | 0.628 | +0.02 | prior |
 | Pm | 0.4–0.6 | 0.501 | +0.01 | prior |
 | B | 0.55–0.75 | 0.634 | -0.16 | prior |
-| B_trend | -0.01–0.0 | -0.012 | -1.37 ⚠ | measured |
+| B_trend | -0.01–0.0 | -0.012 | -1.40 ⚠ | measured |
 | A | 0.4–0.6 | 0.389 | -1.11 ⚠ | prior |
 | E | 0.2–0.45 | 0.325 | -0.00 | prior |
-| Sig | 0.3–0.45 | 0.375 | +0.00 | prior |
+| Sig | 0.22–0.35 | 0.285 | +0.00 | measured |

 ### EU

 | Target | Range | Model at t* | z | basis |
 |---|---|---|---|---|
-| Ko | 0.04–0.15 | 0.093 | -0.04 | prior |
-| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.35–1.6 | 1.462 | -0.10 | measured |
-| Pd | 0.75–0.93 | 0.840 | +0.00 | prior |
+| Ko | 0.04–0.15 | 0.092 | -0.05 | prior |
+| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.35–1.6 | 1.458 | -0.13 | measured |
+| Pd | 0.84–0.94 | 0.890 | +0.00 | measured |
 | Pi | 0.55–0.8 | 0.676 | +0.00 | prior |
-| Pmem | 0.4–0.85 | 0.625 | +0.00 | prior |
+| Pmem | 0.47–0.67 | 0.570 | +0.00 | measured |
 | Plin | 0.45–0.85 | 0.651 | +0.01 | prior |
 | B | 0.65–0.8 | 0.713 | -0.16 | prior |
 | A | 0.4–0.6 | 0.599 | +0.99 | prior |
@ -59,13 +59,13 @@ range. Adoption scaled from anchor B2 by k; t* aligned by observed growth.

 | Target | Range | Model at t* | z | basis |
 |---|---|---|---|---|
-| Ko | 0.05–0.18 | 0.112 | -0.05 | prior |
-| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.2–1.45 | 1.315 | -0.08 | measured |
-| Pd | 0.75–0.93 | 0.840 | +0.00 | prior |
+| Ko | 0.05–0.18 | 0.111 | -0.06 | prior |
+| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.2–1.45 | 1.312 | -0.10 | measured |
+| Pd | 0.83–0.93 | 0.880 | +0.01 | measured |
 | Pi | 0.55–0.8 | 0.677 | +0.01 | prior |
-| Pmem | 0.4–0.85 | 0.625 | +0.00 | prior |
+| Pmem | 0.5–0.7 | 0.600 | +0.00 | measured |
 | Plin | 0.45–0.85 | 0.653 | +0.02 | prior |
-| B | 0.65–0.8 | 0.708 | -0.23 | prior |
+| B | 0.65–0.8 | 0.708 | -0.22 | prior |
 | A | 0.4–0.6 | 0.597 | +0.97 | prior |
 | E | 0.2–0.45 | 0.325 | -0.00 | prior |
 | Sig | 0.38–0.55 | 0.465 | +0.00 | prior |
--- a/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0011-cross-border-coupling.md
+++ b/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0011-cross-border-coupling.md
@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ type: workplan
 title: "Cross-border coupling: jurisdiction-local and global scenarios"
 domain: communication
 repo: assembly-economics
-status: proposed
+status: ready
 flavor: implementation
 depends_on: [ASSEMBLY-WP-0013, ASSEMBLY-WP-0015]
 owner: claude-code
@ -30,8 +30,24 @@ Goal: two scenario modes on one model.
 - **Global:** all jurisdictions are simulated together and exchange
  cross-border flows at every time step.

-Starts only after WP-0013 (calibration) and WP-0015 (first review and
-re-calibration) give a reality-aligned starting point for each jurisdiction.
+## Calibrated starting point (set up 2026-10-13, after calibration)
+
+This workplan was revised against the calibrated, partly measured start
+(`models/Calibration.md` v0.2, `results/calibrated_starts.json`):
+
+- Discovery and membrane concentration are measured: leading search share
+  0.85–0.94, mobile-OS HHI 0.50–0.78. Both channels are run by foreign
+  operators everywhere except the US.
+- Starting domination is US 0.63, EU 0.67, AR 0.71. Argentina starts above
+  the floor.
+- BR-007: the EU, already at rights-first levers, cannot bring P down. Its
+  domination is set abroad. That is the acceptance test for this workplan:
+  the coupled model must show whether, and through which channel, EU or US
+  levers can lower the foreign-set channels.
+- Adoption: present between B2 and B3; fitted speed k 1.3–1.8 × B2.
+
+All runs start from `calibrated_starts.json`. WP-0015 continues to replace
+the remaining priors (Pi, Plin); re-run T05 after each re-calibration.

 ## Cross-border channels: inventory and evidence

@ -43,7 +59,11 @@ state_hub_task_id: "a12786e8-806a-5a4e-a733-f5afe2d8b22d"
 ```

 List the channels through which jurisdictions affect each other, with
-evidence and a candidate indicator for each. Candidates: lineage import
+evidence and a candidate indicator for each. Priority, from the calibration:
+**(1) operator origin of discovery and membrane** (Pd, Pmem: share of the
+leading search engine and mobile OSes run by foreign firms; measurable now
+via StatCounter), **(2) lineage import** (Plin: origin of deployed models),
+(3) infrastructure (Pi: foreign cloud share). Candidates: lineage import
 (models built under foreign rules: effective L, lin_open, m), platform and
 membrane reach (foreign operators' discovery and attention extraction),
 compute and capital flows (`aO` funded abroad), trade in organism output,
@ -60,7 +80,10 @@ priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "d3ced4fc-a9e7-5bbf-a99a-5606c7c2e890"
 ```

-Design how jurisdictions share state: a coupling matrix per channel
+Design how jurisdictions share state. Proposal to test first: each
+jurisdiction's channel level is a mix of a domestic part (its own levers) and
+a foreign-operated part (set by the operator's home jurisdiction), with the
+foreign weight from operator market shares. Then a coupling matrix per channel
 (weights from trade, platform market shares, lineage origin), and which
 stocks become partly shared (lineage control, discovery channel, organism
 capability frontier). Keep each jurisdiction's own levers. Decide the
@ -105,8 +128,11 @@ priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "8b1f4c24-60e6-5d13-89ef-de6416795a70"
 ```

-Run EU, US, AR (and a J4 reference bloc) together across B1–B4, with and
-without the legitimacy loop. Re-test "Europe lags" and "Argentina may
+Run EU, US, AR (and a J4 reference bloc) together from the calibrated
+starts, across B2–B3 (the band the data supports) plus B4 as a stress case,
+with and without the legitimacy loop. First test BR-007: does EU P fall when
+US-side levers (or EU market-access rules such as the DMA) act on the foreign
+part of Pd and Pmem? Re-test "Europe lags" and "Argentina may
 thrive" with lineage import. Compare local-in-context and global results:
 when does the context approximation fail? Update the break register.

--- a/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0012-model-matching-flipping.md
+++ b/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0012-model-matching-flipping.md
@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ type: workplan
 title: "Model matching and regime flipping"
 domain: communication
 repo: assembly-economics
-status: proposed
+status: ready
 flavor: implementation
 depends_on: [ASSEMBLY-WP-0013, ASSEMBLY-WP-0015, ASSEMBLY-WP-0010]
 owner: claude-code
@ -22,6 +22,17 @@ simulations. When new measured or simulated data shows that another model or
 regime fits better, record a **flipping event**: a signal that the regime a
 jurisdiction or society operates under has changed significantly.

+## Calibrated starting point (set up 2026-10-13, after calibration)
+
+The calibration (`models/Calibration.md` v0.2) gives the first matching
+evidence:
+
+- Aligned by measured growth, **B1 cannot reproduce today's adoption growth**
+  (US, EU, DE). B2 lands slightly low, B3 fits, and B4 overshoots the level
+  (z +1.4 to +4.1).
+- US sentiment has a measured series (Pew 2021 → 2026, Σ 0.405 → 0.285),
+  which is the first data that can tell "legitimacy loop on" from "off".
+
 Candidates are combinations of model version (GADM-0.2 … 0.4, later the
 coupled model of WP-0011), adoption anchor (B1–B4), archetype (J1–J4), and
 loop structure (legitimacy loop on/off, self-enhancement). Starts after
@ -37,7 +48,11 @@ priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "e2c8b5f3-67aa-5f69-b654-b589d990105e"
 ```

-Define the candidate regimes and a fit criterion per jurisdiction: a
+Start with a small candidate set that the data can already separate:
+anchors B2, B3, B4 × legitimacy loop off/on × the fitted adoption speed k
+from `calibrate_data.py`. Keep B1 as a candidate with its current misfit
+recorded, so that a later return to B1-like growth is detectable. Define the
+candidate regimes and a fit criterion per jurisdiction: a
 likelihood or scaled-error score over the checkpoint indicators, with
 indicator noise and proxy uncertainty (catalog caveat: no indicator equals
 a model quantity). Penalize complexity (for example an information
@ -53,7 +68,8 @@ priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "a3eae0d5-c5cf-5af2-b419-ab72dfd504f7"
 ```

-Implement `matching.py`: for each jurisdiction, fit each candidate to the
+Build on `calibrate_data.py` (its alignment by growth and the z-scores per
+target are the first score). Implement `matching.py`: for each jurisdiction, fit each candidate to the
 checkpoint series (using the WP-0013 calibration routine), score it, and
 produce a ranked table with weights (for example Akaike or Bayesian model
 weights). Output: `results/matching.md` and a machine-readable record per
@ -68,7 +84,9 @@ priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "a7a9a42a-8703-56c8-ab0d-b7505e22dfef"
 ```

-Define a flipping event: the best-fitting regime changes **and** the
+First flip candidates to watch: B3 → B2 (an adoption slowdown in the BTOS
+series, compare P-2026-001) and loop off → on (sentiment falling faster than
+adoption). Define a flipping event: the best-fitting regime changes **and** the
 evidence for the change exceeds a threshold that persists over at least two
 checkpoints, so that noise does not flip. Distinguish measured flips (from
 observed data) and simulated flips (a run crosses into another regime's
--- a/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-first-checkpoint-review.md
+++ b/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-first-checkpoint-review.md
@ -30,11 +30,13 @@ the re-calibrated state this workplan produces.

 ```task
 id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T01
-status: todo
+status: progress
 priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "cb9cc96b-ab9c-5df1-956a-d168efce1fd6"
 ```

+**Partly done 2026-10-13:** L6 US (Pew 2026 and 2021) in `checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md`. L3, L4, L7 and EU/AR sentiment are open.
+
 For each indicator, record the value with source, reference period and
 retrieval date in a review record `checkpoints/2026/<date>-review.md`:

@ -56,11 +58,13 @@ Where a source is machine-readable after all, add a `sources.json` spec.

 ```task
 id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T02
-status: todo
+status: progress
 priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "7533595c-21cc-5526-84fc-a33a1d1adc90"
 ```

+**Partly done 2026-10-13:** Pd and Pmem (StatCounter) for US, EU proxy, DE, AR, and US Σ are now `measured`. Pi, Plin, Pm, A, B, E are open.
+
 Replace `prior` targets in `simulations/gadm02/calibration_targets.json` with
 measured ranges, citing source and date in `op`:

@ -79,11 +83,13 @@ level). Do not narrow it because data exists.

 ```task
 id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T03
-status: todo
+status: progress
 priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "0813f5cd-9ba1-5530-a2e5-4a66f3d98610"
 ```

+**Partly done 2026-10-13:** re-calibrated with the measured channels; verdict and R1–R4 unchanged (`models/Calibration.md` § 3.1). Repeat after the remaining T02 values.
+
 Follow `models/Calibration.md` § 5. Re-run `calibrate_data.py` and
 `calibrated_readings.py`. Compare k, t*, the anchor verdict (today: between
 B2 and B3, B1 ruled out) and readings R1–R4 with the 2026-10-13 calibration.