WP-0015-T06: AR adoption growth and Pm sources found (OWID/Microsoft, FRED GFDD); fix Google/IDB citation; WP-0014: rein-aharness status and pin branch

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
Assistant-Model: opus
Assistant-Process: 193986@bnt-lap001
Assistant-Session: 585bfbea-320e-47b3-8c0e-bc1513a53307

checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md

@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ the mean of DE, FR, IT and ES.
 | same | DE | 0.544; 16.8 % | 2025 | Eurostat |
 | L6 AI's effect on daily life in 20 years (positive / negative) | EU | 55 / 35 % | fieldwork 2024 | Special Eurobarometer 554/557 (via [Verian](https://www.veriangroup.com/news-and-insights/artificial-intelligence-and-the-future-of-work)) |
 | L6 optimistic / sceptical about AI | AR | 30.7 / 44.2 % | June 2026 | La Nación Data (via [secondary report](https://blog.donweb.com/ia-futuro-argentinos-encuesta-2026/)); not checked against the original |
-| L3 firms applying AI in daily operations; planning to | AR | 20.4 %; 44.4 % | 2026 | Google / IDB study (via [iProfesional](https://www.iprofesional.com/management/424296-que-cantidad-de-argentinos-ya-usa-inteligencia-artificial-para-trabajar)) |
+| L3 firms applying AI in daily operations; planning to | AR | 20.4 %; 44.4 % | 2026 | Google / Foresight / IDB "IA que funciona para Hispanoamérica", presented 2026-08-25 (via [DPL News](https://dplnews.com/reinventar-un-proceso-roi-10-veces-google-cloud/)). _Corrected 2026-10-19: the link previously given here (iProfesional 424296, a Bumeran worker survey) does not contain these figures._ |
 
 ### L4 and L7
 

workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0014-checkpoint-operations-2027.md

@@ -33,6 +33,8 @@ priority: high
 state_hub_task_id: "2d0f60c8-30c6-589f-ae7c-f26a01f03687"
 ```
 
+**2026-10-19, rein-aharness status:** REINAH-WP-0003-T04 is still `wait` with no ETA. The publisher is not started; it needs per-repo push credentials from OpenBao and Activity Core accepting publish evidence (ACTIVITY-WP-0046), and the FI/Binky owner migrations are still open. **The 2026-12-15 canary is at risk.** A matching pin for the rein-aharness side is ready on local branch `assembly-webfetcher-v0.2.0` (dcf444f, not pushed): it clones tag v0.2.0, refuses a checkout that is not at the tag, and uses a per-run `--cache`. It is waiting for owner review, merge and redeploy. Our runner checks only `__version__`; the rein-aharness tag check catches a checkout that has drifted past the tag.
+
 **2026-10-19:** web-fetcher pinned to tag `v0.2.0` (web-fetcher request, WEBFETCH-WP-0003-T03): the runner refuses other versions, records the version, and accepts `--cache DIR` / `--replay DIR`. Declaration updated. For the profile (step 2): the railiance01 runner should install the tag instead of a moving checkout and pass `--cache` to per-run scratch.
 
 **2026-10-14, blocked on rein-aharness:** operator decisions 0636c577 (tenant-owned blueprint, no Glas profile) and c6f23433 (publisher owned by rein-aharness as a separately granted capability). Our side is done: owner declaration `activity-definitions/assembly-checkpoint.declaration.yaml` with the `repository_grant` v2 block, confirmed to glas-harness (GLAS-WP-0017-T02) and rein-aharness. Waiting for the publisher capability (REINAH-WP-0003-T04), then the canary run before 2026-12-15.

workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-first-checkpoint-review.md

@@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ depends_on: [ASSEMBLY-WP-0013, ASSEMBLY-WP-0009]
 owner: claude-code
 topic_slug: coulomb-social
 created: "2026-10-13"
-updated: "2026-10-14"
+updated: "2026-10-19"
 state_hub_workstream_id: "74d02cb9-e4f3-5943-8c33-6db81c8b5acf"
 ---
 
@@ -138,11 +138,18 @@ predictions v2 as new entries that supersede v1.
 
 ```task
 id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T06
-status: wait
+status: todo
 priority: medium
 state_hub_task_id: "8cce2578-9046-502f-b4a6-bcab272accab"
 ```
 
+**2026-10-19: AR data found (partly unblocked; next: re-calibrate AR).** Verified against the sources:
+
+- **AR adoption growth (relative signal):** Microsoft AI Diffusion via [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/estimated-share-people-generative-ai) (`ai_user_share`, people 15–64 using generative AI; modelled from telemetry): AR 17.8 / 19.6 / 21.9 % (2025-06-30 / 2025-12-31 / 2026-03-31); US 26.3 / 28.3 / 31.3 %. Implied growth per year about 1.32 for AR and 1.26 for the US. This counts individuals, not firms, so it is not the BTOS/Eurostat operator. Use the AR/US ratio of about 1.05 to place AR's k inside the 1.25–1.65 prior; do not use it as an absolute value. No firm-level second point exists yet: INDEC has no firm AI/ICT survey, MinCyT ENDEI wave 4 is in fieldwork, and the Google/IDB study has no earlier wave.
+- **AR Pm:** World Bank GFDD via [FRED DDAM02ARA156NWDB](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDAM02ARA156NWDB) (value traded outside the top 10, as a share of market cap). Top-10 share = 100 − value: 68.5 / 74.1 / 72.4 / 63.3 / 57.4 / 80.4 % for 2012–2017. This is the same operator family as the EU STOXX top-10 measure (about 21 %). Caveats: the series ends in 2017, it is volatile, and firms listed only abroad (MercadoLibre) are missing. Usable as a range of 57–80 %. Not verified in the original: S&P/BYMA General top-10 weight 73.2 % (factsheet 2022-10-31). Cross-check only (a different operator): INDEC ENGE 2024, the top 500 firms produce 17.4 % of gross value added.
+- **Citation fix:** the 20.4 % / 44.4 % AR figures in `checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md` come from Google/Foresight/IDB, presented 2026-08-25; the iProfesional link given there did not contain them. Corrected.
+- The EU STOXX 21 % comes from an undated components list, so it also needs checking against the original.
+
 **2026-10-14:** EU market concentration measured (STOXX Europe 600 top-10 about 21 %), re-calibrated (Calibration v0.6: 50/50 targets, 42 measured); readings R1–R4 unchanged; cross-border and world results re-run. **Blocked:** AR market concentration (the MERVAL is too narrow for a comparable operator) and AR adoption growth (needs a second Google/IDB or INDEC data point).
 
 Waits for data that does not exist yet as of 2026-10-13.