WP-0015: L4/L7 collected, mapping update, 35/39 targets measured (Calibration v0.4), GSA around calibrated starts, first prediction observations; T06 waits for AR growth and EU/AR Pm
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
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@ -35,6 +35,7 @@ cd simulations/gadm02 && python3 -B legitimacy.py # sentiment and legitimacy l
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cd simulations/gadm02 && python3 -B jurisdictions.py # jurisdiction archetypes J1–J4 across the band
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cd simulations/gadm02 && python3 -B predictions_v1.py # band ranges for the prediction register (P-2026-*)
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cd simulations/gadm02 && python3 -B calibrate_data.py && python3 -B calibrated_readings.py # calibration to measured data (models/Calibration.md)
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cd simulations/gadm02 && for j in US EU; do python3 -B gsa.py --model gadm04 --jobs 8 --start $j; done # GSA around calibrated starts, ~30 min
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```
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Reality checkpoints (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010): scheduled by activity-core and
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@ -42,6 +42,24 @@ the mean of DE, FR, IT and ES.
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| L6 optimistic / sceptical about AI | AR | 30.7 / 44.2 % | June 2026 | La Nación Data (via [secondary report](https://blog.donweb.com/ia-futuro-argentinos-encuesta-2026/)); not checked against the original |
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| L3 firms applying AI in daily operations; planning to | AR | 20.4 %; 44.4 % | 2026 | Google / IDB study (via [iProfesional](https://www.iprofesional.com/management/424296-que-cantidad-de-argentinos-ya-usa-inteligencia-artificial-para-trabajar)) |
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### L4 and L7
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| Indicator | Jurisdiction | Observation | Source |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| L4 augmentation / automation share of Claude.ai conversations | global | 52 % / 45 % (Nov 2025 data, report Jan 2026); automation passed augmentation briefly in Aug 2025. Enterprise API use is mostly automation (about 3/4). | Anthropic Economic Index, Jan 2026 report (via [summary](https://zenvanriel.com/ai-engineer-blog/anthropic-economic-index-ai-workforce-impact-data/)); check against [anthropic.com/research](https://www.anthropic.com/research/the-anthropic-economic-index) |
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| L7 AI Omnibus, Reg. (EU) 2026/1744 | EU | In force 27 Jul 2026. Annex III high-risk duties moved from 2 Aug 2026 to 2 Dec 2027, Annex I to 2 Aug 2028. Transparency (Art. 50) and GPAI enforcement started 2 Aug 2026 as planned. | [Addleshaw Goddard](https://www.addleshawgoddard.com/en/insights/insights-briefings/2026/technology/eu-ai-act-ai-omnibus-formally-adopted/), [Mondaq](https://www.mondaq.com/eu-digital-omnibus-on-ai-enters-into-force/1825722) |
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| L7 EO 14365 "Ensuring a National Policy Framework for AI" | US | Signed 11 Dec 2025: DOJ task force against state AI laws, FCC/FTC preemption, funding conditions. White House legislative framework 20 Mar 2026. Bipartisan draft (Jun 2026) stalled. Colorado rewrote its act; California SB 53 in force. | [Morgan Lewis](https://www.morganlewis.com/pubs/2026/03/white-house-ai-framework-puts-federal-preemption-at-the-center-of-the-debate), [CASRAI](https://casrai.org/news/federal-ai-moratorium-state-preemption-fight-2026) |
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| L7 national AI law | AR | None passed. 53 bills in 2025, 11 comprehensive. Executive bill "Sociedad Automatizada" (AI-operated companies) sent 29 May 2026 (secondary source). Stated policy: promote AI "without regulating". Buenos Aires province: Resolution 9/2025. | [Diario Judicial](https://www.diariojudicial.com/news-97386-regular-la-ia), [DPL News](https://dplnews.com/?p=311680), [Ecosistema Startup](https://ecosistemastartup.com/sociedad-automatizada-milei-crea-empresas-con-ia-en-argentina/) |
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### Remaining priors, measured later the same day
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| Indicator | Jurisdiction | Value | Source |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Planetary boundaries breached | world | 7 of 9 (ocean acidification newly breached) | [Planetary Health Check 2025, Stockholm Resilience Centre](https://www.stockholmresilience.org/news--events/general-news/2025-09-24-seven-of-nine-planetary-boundaries-now-breached) |
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| Top-7 firms' share of S&P 500 market cap | US | about 34 % (Aug 2026) | [Charles Schwab](https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/what-are-magnificent-7-stocks) |
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| Wage share of GDP | AR | 45.5 % (2025; 43.9 % in 2024) | INDEC income accounts via [Tiempo Argentino](https://www.tiempoar.com.ar/ta_article/en-nueve-anos-los-salarios-perdieron-casi-diez-puntos-porcentuales-de-participacion-en-el-pbi/), [Economis](https://economis.com.ar/indec-los-salarios-aumentaron-60-y-mejoraron-su-peso-en-la-economia-argentina-en-2025/); check against INDEC |
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| Leisure; TV and streaming; all media (h/day) | DE | 6.1; 2.1; about 3 | [Destatis Zeitverwendungserhebung 2022](https://www.destatis.de/DE/Themen/Gesellschaft-Umwelt/Einkommen-Konsum-Lebensbedingungen/Zeitverwendung/Ergebnisse/_inhalt.html) (via press summaries) |
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Secondary-source figures are marked. They should be checked against the
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originals at the next review.
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@ -67,8 +85,12 @@ not an observation against the prediction, which starts at checkpoint 0.
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- Σ for the EU and AR uses each survey's positive − negative balance. The
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questions differ from Pew's, so the ranges are wide.
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- Ecological headroom E = share of planetary boundaries still in the safe
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zone (global).
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- Market concentration Pm = top-7 share of US market capitalization
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(economy-wide).
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## Still priors after this review
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Market concentration Pm (F2), ecological headroom E, EU and DE attention, AR
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claims breadth and AR adoption *growth* (only one level point). They remain in
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WP-0015-T02.
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Pm for the EU and AR, and AR adoption *growth* (one level point only; a
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second Google/IDB or INDEC data point gives growth).
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@ -39,6 +39,8 @@ Predictions v1 (P-2026-001 … 004) were registered by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06 on
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A value below ~31 % in 2027-10 is outside every anchor.
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- Observations:
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- (none yet)
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- 2026-10-12 (checkpoint 0): 23.8 % (BTOS 2026 period 20) → base value of the prediction, not yet a test
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- 2026-10-13: 23.8 % (same period). Short-run growth 19.5 % (period 10) → 23.8 % (period 20) ≈ 1.7× annualized: no slowdown yet; nothing to separate B2 from B3 so far
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### P-2026-002 — L2 enterprises using AI (EU27), reference years 2026, 2027, 2029
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- Registered: 2026-10-13, model GADM-0.4, by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06
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@ -80,6 +82,7 @@ Predictions v1 (P-2026-001 … 004) were registered by ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T06 on
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faster anchors gain weight. EU sentiment should move less than US sentiment.
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- Observations:
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- (none yet; baseline values to be collected at the first review, L6 manual)
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- 2026-10-13 (baseline, review): US Σ 0.285 (Pew, June 2026: 52 % concerned, 9 % excited; 2021: Σ 0.405). EU Σ ≈ 0.60 (Eurobarometer, fieldwork 2024; different question). AR Σ ≈ 0.43 (La Nación Data, June 2026; secondary). Later observations are compared with these values
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### Not registered in v1
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- **L3 (AR):** no adoption base value (manual source missing), so no
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@ -249,6 +249,18 @@ checkpoint updates it, and the mapping is revisited at every full checkpoint.
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| Argentina | J2 by stance | Deregulation programme (DNU 70/2023, Ley Bases 2024 with the RIGI investment regime); no comprehensive AI law as of 2025. | adoption level unknown (L3 manual); AR adopts foreign lineages, so its L and lin_open are set abroad; initial sentiment unmeasured (L6) |
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| (reference) China | J4 | state-coordinated deployment, algorithm registration and generative-AI rules | not a tracked jurisdiction; anchors J4 only |
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**Mapping update 2026-10-13 (review, L7):** the EU's drift toward higher
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permissiveness is now law: the AI Omnibus (Reg. 2026/1744, in force 27 July
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2026) delays Annex III high-risk duties to December 2027, while transparency
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and GPAI enforcement started in August 2026. The EU stays J1 for rights
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levers, with perm moving up. The US federal stance moved further toward J2
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(EO 14365, December 2025: preemption of state AI laws), but no federal
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statute exists, and state rights levers (California SB 53, Colorado) remain.
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US: J3 market structure with a J2 federal stance, unchanged as a label but
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stronger. Argentina: J2 confirmed. No AI law; the executive promotes
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AI-operated companies ("Sociedad Automatizada" bill, May 2026). Sources:
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`checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md`.
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### 4.5 Limitations
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- Closed economy: no lineage import, trade or capital flows between
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@ -1,7 +1,7 @@
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# Calibration of GADM-0.4 to measured data
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**Status:** v0.3 (2026-10-13). ASSEMBLY-WP-0013, then the 2026-10-13 review
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(§ 3.1): 28 measured targets, all inside their ranges after fitting. Calibrates starting states
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**Status:** v0.4 (2026-10-13). ASSEMBLY-WP-0013, then the 2026-10-13 review
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(§ 3.1): 35 of 39 targets measured, all 39 inside their ranges after fitting. Calibrates starting states
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for US, EU, DE and AR. Argentina has no measured adoption growth, so it is
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calibrated only on priors. Most state targets are literature priors that the
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next review must verify against checkpoint data.
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@ -77,9 +77,9 @@ The present is between B2 and B3. B1 is ruled out as a description of
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today, and B4 as a description of today's level. B4 can still describe the
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future if self-enhancement starts later.
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### 3.1 Calibration v0.3: measured targets and fitted parameters
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### 3.1 Calibration v0.4: measured targets and fitted parameters
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The review `checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md` measured 28 of the 39
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The review `checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md` measured 35 of the 39
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targets:
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- adoption level and growth (BTOS, Eurostat; AR level from the Google/IDB
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@ -88,19 +88,21 @@ targets:
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frontier-model top-3 share (Plin);
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- claims breadth B (compensation plus social benefits, % of GDP) and the US
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B trend;
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- US attention (ATUS 2025);
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- attention: US (ATUS 2025), DE and EU proxy (Destatis time-use survey 2022);
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- ecological headroom E (Planetary Health Check 2025: 7 of 9 boundaries
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breached) and US market concentration Pm (top-7 share of S&P 500 value);
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- sentiment Σ for US (Pew 2026), EU (Eurobarometer) and AR (La Nación Data).
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Fitted parameters per jurisdiction:
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| | k (× B2) | t* | wL0 | ereg | aext | auto |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| US | 2.00 | 1.2 y | 0.478 | 0.0096 | 0.387 | **0.26** (fitted to the B trend) |
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| EU | 1.54 | 0.9 y | 0.523 | 0.0098 | 0.931 | 0.60 (default) |
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| DE | 1.41 | 1.5 y | 0.616 | 0.0103 | 0.983 | 0.60 |
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| US | 2.00 | 1.2 y | 0.478 | 0.0062 | 0.387 | **0.26** (fitted to the B trend) |
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| EU | 1.54 | 0.9 y | 0.523 | 0.0063 | 0.719 | 0.60 (default) |
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| DE | 1.41 | 1.5 y | 0.616 | 0.0066 | 0.702 | 0.60 |
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| AR | 2.00 | 1.1 y | 0.387 | 0.0500 | 0.580 | 0.60 |
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**Fit: 39 of 39 targets inside their range, including 28 of 28 measured
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**Fit: 39 of 39 targets inside their range, including 35 of 35 measured
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targets.**
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- **Fitted against data:** adoption speed k and alignment t* (level and
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@ -116,13 +118,16 @@ Findings:
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growth anywhere, and B3 fits best (US z 0.0, AR 0.0, EU +0.5).
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2. **Automation.** The measured US labour-share decline is slower than the
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default automation strength implies. Fitted `auto` is 0.26 instead of 0.6.
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3. **Domination starts at or above the floor:** US 0.69, EU 0.72, AR 0.75
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3. **Domination starts at or above the floor:** US 0.68, EU 0.72, AR 0.75
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(floor 0.70). The large contributions are measured: frontier-model spend
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is 88 % with three firms, and search is 85–94 % with one.
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Still priors: market concentration Pm, ecological headroom E, EU and DE
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attention, AR claims breadth, and AR adoption *growth* (only one level point).
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They stay in ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T02.
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4. **Ecology is close to its floor.** Measured E is 0.235 against a floor of
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0.20. Ecological regeneration becomes one of the leading sensitivity
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drivers (§ 4.1).
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Still priors: market concentration Pm for the EU and AR, and AR adoption
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*growth* (only one level point). They stay in ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T06.
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## 4. Readings from the calibrated start (T04)
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@ -133,8 +138,8 @@ present, with the legitimacy loop off and on.
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| R1 rights-first levers give the best VFAC (§ 4.3 of AdoptionBand) | holds | holds | holds | **survives** |
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| R2 the legitimacy loop damps adoption (§ 3.3) | fails under J1 | holds | fails under J1 | **revised** |
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| R3 lagging alone costs early output (§ 4.3) | −0.088 Ȳ | −0.084 | −0.121 | **survives, stronger** |
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| R4 the current regime breaks the domination floor by t 100 | yes (J3; P 0.69 → 0.82) | yes (J1; 0.72 → 0.82) | yes (J2; 0.75 → 0.86) | **new** |
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| R3 lagging alone costs early output (§ 4.3) | −0.074 Ȳ | −0.071 | −0.121 | **survives, stronger** |
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| R4 the current regime breaks the domination floor by t 100 | yes (J3; P 0.68 → 0.82) | yes (J1; 0.72 → 0.82) | yes (J2; 0.75 → 0.86) | **new** |
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1. **R2 revised: the loop's sign depends on the regime.** Under rights-first
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levers, domination falls, perceived benefit rises, and sentiment
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@ -150,7 +155,7 @@ present, with the legitimacy loop off and on.
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3. **The EU has no lever headroom left within J1.** The channel counters are
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calibrated so that the current regime is at rest. Lever effects are
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therefore *relative to the current regime*. The US gains by moving from J3
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to J1 levers (P 0.69 → 0.55). The EU is already at J1 settings, and its P
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to J1 levers (P 0.68 → 0.54). The EU is already at J1 settings, and its P
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rises to 0.82. Within this closed-economy model, the EU's domination comes
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from levels set abroad (lineages, platforms), which its levers do not
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reach. This is the strongest argument yet for WP-0011.
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@ -159,6 +164,33 @@ present, with the legitimacy loop off and on.
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(P-2026-001 … 003) used growth alignment without k. They are consistent
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with § 3, because B2–B3 bracket the fitted speed.
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### 4.1 Global sensitivity around the calibrated start (WP-0015-T04)
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`gsa.py --model gadm04 --start US|EU` (`results/gsa_gadm04_start_US.md`,
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`_EU.md`): Morris and Sobol analysis of final VFAC around calibration v0.4.
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The scenario's policy levers are applied; adoption and automation stay at
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their fitted values.
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| Scenario | US: top 3 by ST | EU: top 3 by ST |
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|---|---|---|
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| Baseline | `dO` 0.29, `IX` 0.26, `ell` 0.08 | `IX` 0.33, `dO` 0.13, `lX` 0.11 |
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| Generative regime | `IX` 0.20, `ereg` 0.11, `dX` 0.10 (`expl` 0.09, rank 5) | `IX` 0.24, `lX` 0.13, `ereg` 0.10 |
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1. **The commons block leads from the calibrated start.** Commons
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investment `IX`, enclosure loss `lX` and decay `dX` rank at the top in both
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jurisdictions and both scenarios.
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2. **Ecology becomes a leading driver.** With E measured near its floor,
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ecological regeneration `ereg` ranks second or third in the generative
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regime. It did not appear in the uncalibrated top five.
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3. **The governance reading of WP-0009-T05 does not survive calibration
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unchanged.** Around the uncalibrated B3–B4 anchors, explainability `expl`
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led the generative regime. From the calibrated start it is fifth (US) or
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lower (EU). With domination already high and the counters calibrated to
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hold it, the commons and ecology parameters matter more for VFAC than the
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epistemic lever.
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4. **Organism depreciation `dO` still matters most for the US baseline** (ST
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0.29), less for the EU (0.13), where adoption is slower and smaller.
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## 5. Re-calibration at checkpoints (T05)
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When a checkpoint brings new data:
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@ -175,7 +207,7 @@ When a checkpoint brings new data:
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## 6. Limitations
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- Nine targets are still priors (§ 3.1). Several measured values come from
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- Four targets are still priors (§ 3.1). Several measured values come from
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secondary reports (see the review record).
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- One adoption speed parameter (k) for four parameters (aO, ell, oseed,
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selfenh). k does not separate investment from learning.
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@ -40,10 +40,10 @@
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"op": "top-3 share of enterprise LLM API spend 40+27+21 = 88 % (Menlo Ventures, Dec 2025); US firms paying Anthropic 43.8 %, OpenAI 39.8 % (Ramp, Aug 2026) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
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},
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"Pm": {
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"lo": 0.4,
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"hi": 0.6,
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"basis": "prior",
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"op": "market ~ top-firm sales concentration in digital sectors (F2)"
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"lo": 0.28,
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"hi": 0.45,
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"basis": "measured",
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"op": "top-7 firms' share of S&P 500 market capitalization about 34 % (Aug 2026, Charles Schwab); economy-wide concentration operator, upper range for sector concentration (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
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},
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"B": {
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"lo": 0.57,
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@ -64,10 +64,10 @@
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"op": "ATUS 2025 (BLS, 2026-06-25): leisure 5.2 h/day, TV 2.6 h (half); A = leisure share not taken by TV and engagement media, about 0.42-0.50 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
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},
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"E": {
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"lo": 0.2,
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"hi": 0.45,
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"basis": "prior",
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"op": "6 of 9 planetary boundaries transgressed (Richardson et al. 2023); national E1 measured but not yet mapped"
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"lo": 0.15,
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"hi": 0.32,
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"basis": "measured",
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"op": "Planetary Health Check 2025 (Stockholm Resilience Centre / PIK): 7 of 9 boundaries breached; E = share still in the safe zone = 2/9 = 0.22 (global) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
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},
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"Sig": {
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"lo": 0.22,
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@ -120,16 +120,16 @@
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"op": "compensation D1 / GDP 0.479 (Eurostat nama_10_gdp 2025) plus social benefits D62 16.5 % of GDP (gov_10a_main 2025): 0.644 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
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},
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"A": {
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"lo": 0.4,
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"hi": 0.6,
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"basis": "prior",
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"op": "HETUS where available"
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"lo": 0.45,
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"hi": 0.65,
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"basis": "measured",
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"op": "DE time-use survey 2022 as EU proxy (HETUS not current); range widened (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
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},
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"E": {
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"lo": 0.2,
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"hi": 0.45,
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"basis": "prior",
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"op": "as US; E2/E4 measured, not yet mapped"
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"lo": 0.15,
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"hi": 0.32,
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"basis": "measured",
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"op": "Planetary Health Check 2025 (Stockholm Resilience Centre / PIK): 7 of 9 boundaries breached; E = share still in the safe zone = 2/9 = 0.22 (global) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
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},
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"Sig": {
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"lo": 0.45,
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@ -168,6 +168,12 @@
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"hi": 0.76,
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"basis": "measured",
|
||||
"op": "D1 / GDP 0.544 plus D62 16.8 %: 0.712 (Eurostat 2025) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"A": {
|
||||
"lo": 0.48,
|
||||
"hi": 0.65,
|
||||
"basis": "measured",
|
||||
"op": "Destatis time-use survey 2022: leisure 6.1 h/day, TV and streaming 2.1 h, all media about 3 h; A = 0.51-0.65 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
|
||||
}
|
||||
},
|
||||
"AR": {
|
||||
|
|
@ -190,10 +196,10 @@
|
|||
"op": "top-3 share of enterprise LLM API spend 40+27+21 = 88 % (Menlo Ventures, Dec 2025); US firms paying Anthropic 43.8 %, OpenAI 39.8 % (Ramp, Aug 2026); same foreign lineages (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"B": {
|
||||
"lo": 0.45,
|
||||
"hi": 0.65,
|
||||
"basis": "prior",
|
||||
"op": "wage share fell sharply in 2024 (INDEC income accounts)"
|
||||
"lo": 0.49,
|
||||
"hi": 0.61,
|
||||
"basis": "measured",
|
||||
"op": "wage share 45.5 % of GDP 2025 (INDEC income accounts, via press) plus social transfers not yet measured (assumed 4-15 % of GDP) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
|
||||
},
|
||||
"Sig": {
|
||||
"lo": 0.36,
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -10,12 +10,16 @@ reading in models/GADM-0.2.md can be tested directly.
|
|||
Ranges: each parameter varies ±50 % around its scenario value; levers are
|
||||
clipped to [0, 1]; zero-valued parameters vary in [0, 0.1].
|
||||
|
||||
Usage: python3 -B simulations/gadm02/gsa.py [--quick] [--model gadm04] [--jobs 8] [--anchor B1..B4]
|
||||
Usage: python3 -B simulations/gadm02/gsa.py [--quick] [--model gadm04] [--jobs 8]
|
||||
[--anchor B1..B4 | --start US|EU|DE|AR]
|
||||
|
||||
--anchor (gadm04 only, ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T05) runs the analysis around an
|
||||
adoption band anchor (grounding.variant): anchor parameters and equilibrium
|
||||
initial state; channel counters are recalibrated at that state. The
|
||||
legitimacy-loop and permissiveness parameters (WP-0009-T03/T04) are not varied.
|
||||
--start (gadm04 only, ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T04) runs it around a jurisdiction's
|
||||
calibrated start (results/calibrated_starts.json); counters recalibrated at
|
||||
that state.
|
||||
|
||||
For models with power channels (gadm03, gadm03c, gadm04), the channel counter
|
||||
coefficients c_* are not varied but recalibrated for every sample, so each
|
||||
|
|
@ -41,6 +45,7 @@ JOBS = int(sys.argv[sys.argv.index("--jobs") + 1]) if "--jobs" in sys.argv else
|
|||
g = importlib.import_module(MODEL)
|
||||
CHANNELS = "Pm" in g.STOCKS
|
||||
ANCHOR = sys.argv[sys.argv.index("--anchor") + 1] if "--anchor" in sys.argv else None
|
||||
START = sys.argv[sys.argv.index("--start") + 1] if "--start" in sys.argv else None
|
||||
FIXED = {"wealth_on"} | ({c for c in gadm03.COEF.values()} if CHANNELS else set()) \
|
||||
| {k for k in getattr(g, "PARAMS", {}) if k in ("sent", "perm") or k.startswith(("sig_", "leg_"))}
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -68,7 +73,7 @@ def model(base: dict, rng: dict, names: list[str], u: list[float], init: dict) -
|
|||
lo, hi = rng[k]
|
||||
p[k] = lo + x * (hi - lo)
|
||||
if CHANNELS:
|
||||
p.update(g.calibrate(p, init) if ANCHOR else getattr(g, "calibrate", gadm03.calibrate)(p))
|
||||
p.update(g.calibrate(p, init) if (ANCHOR or START) else getattr(g, "calibrate", gadm03.calibrate)(p))
|
||||
return g.simulate(p, init)[-1]["VFAC"]
|
||||
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -179,6 +184,15 @@ def main() -> None:
|
|||
vp, vi = gr.variant(gr.BAND[ANCHOR])
|
||||
sc = {**sc, "params": {**sc["params"], **vp}, "init": {**sc["init"], **vi},
|
||||
"title": f"{sc['title']} — anchor {ANCHOR} ({gr.BAND[ANCHOR]})"}
|
||||
if START:
|
||||
import json as _json
|
||||
st = _json.loads((OUT / "calibrated_starts.json").read_text())[START]
|
||||
# calibrated parameters first; the scenario's policy levers on top, but not its
|
||||
# technology assumptions (adoption and automation stay at their fitted values)
|
||||
tech = {"auto", "aO", "ell", "oseed", "selfenh"}
|
||||
sc = {**sc, "params": {**{k: v for k, v in st["params"].items() if k in g.PARAMS},
|
||||
**{k: v for k, v in sc["params"].items() if k not in tech}},
|
||||
"init": dict(st["init"]), "title": f"{sc['title']} — calibrated start {START}"}
|
||||
base = {**g.PARAMS, **sc["params"]}
|
||||
rng = ranges(base)
|
||||
mres = morris(base, sc["init"], rng, r, rnd)
|
||||
|
|
@ -201,7 +215,7 @@ def main() -> None:
|
|||
lines += ["", f"Sum of S1 over analysed parameters: {tot1:.3f}. Reuse bundle: "
|
||||
f"ΣS1 = {b1:.3f}, ΣST = {bt:.3f}.", ""]
|
||||
print(f"done {name}", file=sys.stderr)
|
||||
stem = ("gsa" if MODEL == "gadm02" else f"gsa_{MODEL}") + (f"_{ANCHOR}" if ANCHOR else "")
|
||||
stem = ("gsa" if MODEL == "gadm02" else f"gsa_{MODEL}") + (f"_{ANCHOR}" if ANCHOR else "") + (f"_start_{START}" if START else "")
|
||||
(OUT / (f"{stem}-quick.md" if quick else f"{stem}.md")).write_text("\n".join(lines))
|
||||
print("\n".join(lines))
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -9,27 +9,27 @@ already contains today's permissiveness).
|
|||
|
||||
| Regime | Loop | K_Ω t5 / t25 / peak | Ȳ 0–25 | VFAC t100 | G | A | P t0 → t100 | floors broken |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| J1 | off | 0.18 / 0.22 / 0.22 | 0.294 | 0.431 | 0.48 | 0.56 | 0.69 → 0.55 | none |
|
||||
| J1 | on | 0.11 / 0.27 / 0.28 | 0.292 | 0.425 | 0.47 | 0.54 | 0.69 → 0.56 | none |
|
||||
| J2 | off | 0.38 / 0.40 / 0.44 | 0.339 | 0.277 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.69 → 0.78 | P |
|
||||
| J2 | on | 0.19 / 0.22 / 0.27 | 0.288 | 0.311 | 0.40 | 0.40 | 0.69 → 0.76 | P |
|
||||
| J3 | off | 0.33 / 0.36 / 0.39 | 0.324 | 0.262 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.69 → 0.82 | P |
|
||||
| J3 | on | 0.16 / 0.19 / 0.22 | 0.275 | 0.304 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.69 → 0.77 | P |
|
||||
| J4 | off | 0.33 / 0.38 / 0.40 | 0.332 | 0.296 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.69 → 0.77 | P |
|
||||
| J4 | on | 0.16 / 0.31 / 0.31 | 0.297 | 0.307 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.69 → 0.76 | P |
|
||||
| J1 | off | 0.18 / 0.23 / 0.23 | 0.253 | 0.419 | 0.48 | 0.56 | 0.68 → 0.54 | none |
|
||||
| J1 | on | 0.11 / 0.29 / 0.29 | 0.252 | 0.413 | 0.48 | 0.54 | 0.68 → 0.55 | none |
|
||||
| J2 | off | 0.38 / 0.41 / 0.44 | 0.289 | 0.268 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.68 → 0.78 | P |
|
||||
| J2 | on | 0.19 / 0.23 / 0.27 | 0.247 | 0.301 | 0.40 | 0.41 | 0.68 → 0.75 | P |
|
||||
| J3 | off | 0.33 / 0.36 / 0.39 | 0.277 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.68 → 0.82 | P |
|
||||
| J3 | on | 0.16 / 0.19 / 0.22 | 0.235 | 0.295 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.68 → 0.77 | P |
|
||||
| J4 | off | 0.34 / 0.39 / 0.41 | 0.284 | 0.285 | 0.38 | 0.41 | 0.68 → 0.77 | P |
|
||||
| J4 | on | 0.17 / 0.31 / 0.31 | 0.254 | 0.297 | 0.39 | 0.43 | 0.68 → 0.76 | P |
|
||||
|
||||
## EU (current regime ≈ J1)
|
||||
|
||||
| Regime | Loop | K_Ω t5 / t25 / peak | Ȳ 0–25 | VFAC t100 | G | A | P t0 → t100 | floors broken |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| J1 | off | 0.24 / 0.30 / 0.31 | 0.306 | 0.293 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.72 → 0.82 | P |
|
||||
| J1 | on | 0.26 / 0.18 / 0.28 | 0.285 | 0.311 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.72 → 0.80 | P |
|
||||
| J2 | off | 0.54 / 0.52 / 0.58 | 0.374 | 0.195 | 0.33 | 0.15 | 0.72 → 0.91 | P,A |
|
||||
| J2 | on | 0.46 / 0.14 / 0.47 | 0.274 | 0.248 | 0.38 | 0.26 | 0.72 → 0.88 | P |
|
||||
| J3 | off | 0.48 / 0.49 / 0.54 | 0.362 | 0.187 | 0.32 | 0.14 | 0.72 → 0.92 | P,A |
|
||||
| J3 | on | 0.41 / 0.12 / 0.41 | 0.262 | 0.239 | 0.38 | 0.25 | 0.72 → 0.90 | P |
|
||||
| J4 | off | 0.49 / 0.50 / 0.55 | 0.367 | 0.209 | 0.34 | 0.20 | 0.72 → 0.90 | P,A |
|
||||
| J4 | on | 0.51 / 0.35 / 0.53 | 0.340 | 0.230 | 0.36 | 0.24 | 0.72 → 0.89 | P |
|
||||
| J1 | off | 0.25 / 0.30 / 0.31 | 0.261 | 0.289 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.72 → 0.82 | P |
|
||||
| J1 | on | 0.26 / 0.18 / 0.28 | 0.244 | 0.306 | 0.41 | 0.47 | 0.72 → 0.80 | P |
|
||||
| J2 | off | 0.55 / 0.52 / 0.59 | 0.318 | 0.193 | 0.33 | 0.18 | 0.72 → 0.91 | P,A |
|
||||
| J2 | on | 0.46 / 0.14 / 0.47 | 0.234 | 0.245 | 0.38 | 0.31 | 0.72 → 0.88 | P |
|
||||
| J3 | off | 0.49 / 0.49 / 0.54 | 0.308 | 0.186 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 0.72 → 0.92 | P,A |
|
||||
| J3 | on | 0.41 / 0.11 / 0.41 | 0.224 | 0.237 | 0.38 | 0.30 | 0.72 → 0.90 | P |
|
||||
| J4 | off | 0.50 / 0.51 / 0.55 | 0.313 | 0.207 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 0.72 → 0.90 | P |
|
||||
| J4 | on | 0.51 / 0.35 / 0.53 | 0.290 | 0.228 | 0.36 | 0.29 | 0.72 → 0.89 | P |
|
||||
|
||||
## AR (current regime ≈ J2)
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -48,6 +48,6 @@ already contains today's permissiveness).
|
|||
|
||||
| Jurisdiction | R1 J1 best VFAC | R2 loop damps | R3 lagging costs early output (ΔȲ, ΔVFAC) | R4 current regime breaks P floor |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| US | holds | **fails** | holds (-0.088, +0.042) | yes |
|
||||
| EU | holds | holds | holds (-0.084, +0.026) | yes |
|
||||
| US | holds | **fails** | holds (-0.074, +0.041) | yes |
|
||||
| EU | holds | holds | holds (-0.071, +0.025) | yes |
|
||||
| AR | holds | **fails** | holds (-0.121, +0.036) | yes |
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -61,55 +61,55 @@
|
|||
},
|
||||
"DE": {
|
||||
"init": {
|
||||
"As": 0.48980323387568897,
|
||||
"Aw": 0.49482257426652876,
|
||||
"Cch": 0.4441648034819571,
|
||||
"Cd": 0.34617316016465904,
|
||||
"Cs": 0.5184755053991729,
|
||||
"Cw": 0.5619538231854824,
|
||||
"Dch": 0.45222328828671904,
|
||||
"Dd": 0.40237155735053637,
|
||||
"Ds": 0.534051971434396,
|
||||
"Dw": 0.5412207640198076,
|
||||
"E": 0.3248298954736303,
|
||||
"F": 0.40587535591155427,
|
||||
"G": 0.44811082106136974,
|
||||
"Gs": 0.43000444357509027,
|
||||
"Gw": 0.45414733881795505,
|
||||
"Ko": 0.11234398697833374,
|
||||
"Kp": 0.4813608094712152,
|
||||
"As": 0.5599288424043934,
|
||||
"Aw": 0.5595642615483107,
|
||||
"Cch": 0.44606561637805564,
|
||||
"Cd": 0.34624573024760946,
|
||||
"Cs": 0.5194055619662479,
|
||||
"Cw": 0.563580622192313,
|
||||
"Dch": 0.4522600176030964,
|
||||
"Dd": 0.4023715575613355,
|
||||
"Ds": 0.5340519790596704,
|
||||
"Dw": 0.5412211368980316,
|
||||
"E": 0.23486643582643155,
|
||||
"F": 0.40376104620616343,
|
||||
"G": 0.44808171081056014,
|
||||
"Gs": 0.4299840929679978,
|
||||
"Gw": 0.45411530817377127,
|
||||
"Ko": 0.11335989592626683,
|
||||
"Kp": 0.48192186244043217,
|
||||
"Lg": 0.535,
|
||||
"N": 0.46215059748089454,
|
||||
"N": 0.46214558382237997,
|
||||
"Nch": 0.227299207505914,
|
||||
"Nd": 0.0909055888190386,
|
||||
"Ns": 0.17049683002365584,
|
||||
"Nw": 0.5114007924940861,
|
||||
"Pd": 0.8804850333571789,
|
||||
"Pi": 0.661976211103832,
|
||||
"Plin": 0.876740750775282,
|
||||
"Pm": 0.50128095279319,
|
||||
"Pmem": 0.6002811359417883,
|
||||
"Ppol": 0.5023583760033836,
|
||||
"Q": 0.4917127861508988,
|
||||
"S": 0.4820035643089187,
|
||||
"Pd": 0.8804855464849508,
|
||||
"Pi": 0.6619591288561137,
|
||||
"Plin": 0.8767697856588446,
|
||||
"Pm": 0.5012800826351705,
|
||||
"Pmem": 0.6002862986481262,
|
||||
"Ppol": 0.502247695174575,
|
||||
"Q": 0.49172382234185763,
|
||||
"S": 0.48339721687145243,
|
||||
"Sig": 0.535,
|
||||
"W": 0.14836036568082947,
|
||||
"X": 0.3778200367466775
|
||||
"W": 0.12902620854069197,
|
||||
"X": 0.3780888608429845
|
||||
},
|
||||
"k": 1.4142135623730951,
|
||||
"params": {
|
||||
"L": 0.6,
|
||||
"aO": 0.3535533905932738,
|
||||
"aext": 0.9831283569335938,
|
||||
"aext": 0.7022445678710938,
|
||||
"c_d": 0.1627,
|
||||
"c_i": 0.3161,
|
||||
"c_lin": 0.0741,
|
||||
"c_m": 0.0683,
|
||||
"c_m": 0.0679,
|
||||
"c_mem": 0.1358,
|
||||
"c_pol": 0.4045,
|
||||
"c_pol": 0.4022,
|
||||
"care_load": 0.03,
|
||||
"ell": 0.5868986283848344,
|
||||
"ereg": 0.010267111111111112,
|
||||
"ereg": 0.0065505098039215694,
|
||||
"expl": 0.7,
|
||||
"lin_open": 0.6,
|
||||
"m": 0.7,
|
||||
|
|
@ -126,55 +126,55 @@
|
|||
},
|
||||
"EU": {
|
||||
"init": {
|
||||
"As": 0.4937836203396411,
|
||||
"Aw": 0.49896308458637634,
|
||||
"Cch": 0.426294685819212,
|
||||
"Cd": 0.3657278892931665,
|
||||
"Cs": 0.5295695555856555,
|
||||
"Cw": 0.5566611062469996,
|
||||
"Dch": 0.4308098298656463,
|
||||
"Dd": 0.4018519214238028,
|
||||
"Ds": 0.5402872245541102,
|
||||
"Dw": 0.5444431095847656,
|
||||
"E": 0.32493207314438577,
|
||||
"F": 0.4028309712113618,
|
||||
"G": 0.4328125482458494,
|
||||
"Gs": 0.4131728688642662,
|
||||
"Gw": 0.4393603073192635,
|
||||
"Ko": 0.09101991941647128,
|
||||
"Kp": 0.4878961969619115,
|
||||
"As": 0.547253539111859,
|
||||
"Aw": 0.548224625767804,
|
||||
"Cch": 0.4272032249357156,
|
||||
"Cd": 0.3657481101191295,
|
||||
"Cs": 0.5300003504494355,
|
||||
"Cw": 0.5574458274764564,
|
||||
"Dch": 0.43082056226817644,
|
||||
"Dd": 0.40185192143119564,
|
||||
"Ds": 0.5402872251399204,
|
||||
"Dw": 0.544443167177392,
|
||||
"E": 0.23494814917684614,
|
||||
"F": 0.40163610217993473,
|
||||
"G": 0.43280316908266564,
|
||||
"Gs": 0.41316669929349137,
|
||||
"Gw": 0.43934985809595245,
|
||||
"Ko": 0.09150868360327788,
|
||||
"Kp": 0.48813726708482263,
|
||||
"Lg": 0.535,
|
||||
"N": 0.4765659398459323,
|
||||
"N": 0.4765639299171411,
|
||||
"Nch": 0.22729951420364686,
|
||||
"Nd": 0.09090351693347513,
|
||||
"Ns": 0.17049805681458743,
|
||||
"Nw": 0.5114004857963531,
|
||||
"Pd": 0.890186133559438,
|
||||
"Pi": 0.6607139553167074,
|
||||
"Plin": 0.8756873973062851,
|
||||
"Pm": 0.5003930796435053,
|
||||
"Pmem": 0.570135040320222,
|
||||
"Ppol": 0.5009721717160969,
|
||||
"Q": 0.4948158265527009,
|
||||
"S": 0.4862857394652712,
|
||||
"Pd": 0.8901863182693627,
|
||||
"Pi": 0.6607094653142659,
|
||||
"Plin": 0.875695868800961,
|
||||
"Pm": 0.5003873745051807,
|
||||
"Pmem": 0.5701365716974683,
|
||||
"Ppol": 0.5009311028707848,
|
||||
"Q": 0.49481882396446897,
|
||||
"S": 0.4869511365194517,
|
||||
"Sig": 0.535,
|
||||
"W": 0.1754134603387214,
|
||||
"X": 0.38616450279192865
|
||||
"W": 0.1531825186893347,
|
||||
"X": 0.386286326958335
|
||||
},
|
||||
"k": 1.5422108254079407,
|
||||
"params": {
|
||||
"L": 0.6,
|
||||
"aO": 0.3855527063519852,
|
||||
"aext": 0.9310928344726562,
|
||||
"aext": 0.7186294555664062,
|
||||
"c_d": 0.1507,
|
||||
"c_i": 0.3161,
|
||||
"c_lin": 0.0741,
|
||||
"c_m": 0.0735,
|
||||
"c_m": 0.073,
|
||||
"c_mem": 0.1387,
|
||||
"c_pol": 0.4273,
|
||||
"c_pol": 0.4247,
|
||||
"care_load": 0.03,
|
||||
"ell": 0.6400174925442954,
|
||||
"ereg": 0.009816444444444445,
|
||||
"ereg": 0.006262980392156864,
|
||||
"expl": 0.7,
|
||||
"lin_open": 0.6,
|
||||
"m": 0.7,
|
||||
|
|
@ -191,40 +191,40 @@
|
|||
},
|
||||
"US": {
|
||||
"init": {
|
||||
"As": 0.4638561505217184,
|
||||
"Aw": 0.47095929341363896,
|
||||
"Cch": 0.4332185525265263,
|
||||
"Cd": 0.3554804338324086,
|
||||
"Cs": 0.5209267906156767,
|
||||
"Cw": 0.5554727722506773,
|
||||
"Dch": 0.43881655455166524,
|
||||
"Dd": 0.402177333960535,
|
||||
"Ds": 0.5371442836459209,
|
||||
"Dw": 0.542748194853914,
|
||||
"E": 0.32475029967213903,
|
||||
"F": 0.4034487151448105,
|
||||
"G": 0.4241337094438139,
|
||||
"Gs": 0.4020491232007042,
|
||||
"Gw": 0.4314965577581139,
|
||||
"Ko": 0.1243134793968734,
|
||||
"Kp": 0.484041964344501,
|
||||
"As": 0.4637886597324476,
|
||||
"Aw": 0.4708912712885,
|
||||
"Cch": 0.4332376843396394,
|
||||
"Cd": 0.3554802311708495,
|
||||
"Cs": 0.5209218105092162,
|
||||
"Cw": 0.5554746836783269,
|
||||
"Dch": 0.4388525127347231,
|
||||
"Dd": 0.40217733404614336,
|
||||
"Ds": 0.5371442878970177,
|
||||
"Dw": 0.5427484729157492,
|
||||
"E": 0.2348127910138574,
|
||||
"F": 0.4019226367895594,
|
||||
"G": 0.42717955590953194,
|
||||
"Gs": 0.40530821191422817,
|
||||
"Gw": 0.4344713107332175,
|
||||
"Ko": 0.12518257777530525,
|
||||
"Kp": 0.4843707773756649,
|
||||
"Lg": 0.285,
|
||||
"N": 0.46840082573714836,
|
||||
"N": 0.4695950957345203,
|
||||
"Nch": 0.22729935918753863,
|
||||
"Nd": 0.09090457861394226,
|
||||
"Ns": 0.17049743675015444,
|
||||
"Nw": 0.5114006408124614,
|
||||
"Pd": 0.8504430615397236,
|
||||
"Pi": 0.6313462967709835,
|
||||
"Plin": 0.8768277636112062,
|
||||
"Pm": 0.5006822876704253,
|
||||
"Pmem": 0.5011181593225171,
|
||||
"Ppol": 0.5016418357629986,
|
||||
"Q": 0.49220841683727995,
|
||||
"S": 0.4828360374678574,
|
||||
"Pd": 0.8504253145857318,
|
||||
"Pi": 0.6313187120405613,
|
||||
"Plin": 0.8768509945133794,
|
||||
"Pm": 0.36539578850727567,
|
||||
"Pmem": 0.5011312389614087,
|
||||
"Ppol": 0.5015193643253176,
|
||||
"Q": 0.4926257295998362,
|
||||
"S": 0.48418788964527376,
|
||||
"Sig": 0.285,
|
||||
"W": 0.18562318134613848,
|
||||
"X": 0.3811184088807723
|
||||
"W": 0.16235252953395493,
|
||||
"X": 0.38160201689555423
|
||||
},
|
||||
"k": 2.0,
|
||||
"params": {
|
||||
|
|
@ -234,12 +234,12 @@
|
|||
"c_d": 0.2661,
|
||||
"c_i": 0.3805,
|
||||
"c_lin": 0.2603,
|
||||
"c_m": 0.0757,
|
||||
"c_m": 0.0764,
|
||||
"c_mem": 0.576,
|
||||
"c_pol": 0.4316,
|
||||
"c_pol": 0.4267,
|
||||
"care_load": 0.03,
|
||||
"disc": 0.6,
|
||||
"ereg": 0.009643111111111111,
|
||||
"ereg": 0.0061523921568627455,
|
||||
"lin_open": 0.1,
|
||||
"m": 0.1,
|
||||
"r_d": 0.6,
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -8,20 +8,20 @@ range. Adoption scaled from anchor B2 by k; t* aligned by observed growth.
|
|||
|
||||
| Jurisdiction | Archetype levers | k | t* (y) | K_Ω(t*) | fitted wL0 | fitted ereg | fitted aext | auto |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| US | J3 | 2.00 | 1.2 | 0.124 | 0.478 | 0.0096 | 0.387 | 0.26 |
|
||||
| EU | J1 | 1.54 | 0.9 | 0.091 | 0.523 | 0.0098 | 0.931 | 0.60 |
|
||||
| DE | J1 | 1.41 | 1.5 | 0.112 | 0.616 | 0.0103 | 0.983 | 0.60 |
|
||||
| US | J3 | 2.00 | 1.2 | 0.125 | 0.478 | 0.0062 | 0.387 | 0.26 |
|
||||
| EU | J1 | 1.54 | 0.9 | 0.092 | 0.523 | 0.0063 | 0.719 | 0.60 |
|
||||
| DE | J1 | 1.41 | 1.5 | 0.113 | 0.616 | 0.0066 | 0.702 | 0.60 |
|
||||
| AR | J2 | 2.00 | 1.1 | 0.110 | 0.387 | 0.0500 | 0.580 | 0.60 |
|
||||
|
||||
**Fit summary:** 39 of 39 targets inside their range; measured targets 28 of 28.
|
||||
**Fit summary:** 39 of 39 targets inside their range; measured targets 35 of 35.
|
||||
|
||||
## Fixed anchors aligned by growth: K_Ω level miss
|
||||
|
||||
| Jurisdiction | B1 | B2 | B3 | B4 |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| US | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.055, z -0.9 | K_Ω 0.124, z -0.0 | K_Ω 0.209, z +1.1 |
|
||||
| EU | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.055, z -0.7 | K_Ω 0.125, z +0.5 | K_Ω 0.201, z +1.9 |
|
||||
| DE | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.074, z -0.6 | K_Ω 0.171, z +0.9 | K_Ω 0.347, z +3.6 |
|
||||
| US | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.055, z -0.9 | K_Ω 0.125, z +0.0 | K_Ω 0.220, z +1.3 |
|
||||
| EU | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.055, z -0.7 | K_Ω 0.125, z +0.6 | K_Ω 0.203, z +2.0 |
|
||||
| DE | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.075, z -0.6 | K_Ω 0.173, z +0.9 | K_Ω 0.353, z +3.7 |
|
||||
| AR | cannot reach growth | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.110, z +0.0 | K_Ω 0.163, z +0.9 |
|
||||
|
||||
## Residuals at the calibrated start
|
||||
|
|
@ -30,47 +30,47 @@ range. Adoption scaled from anchor B2 by k; t* aligned by observed growth.
|
|||
|
||||
| Target | Range | Model at t* | z | basis |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Ko | 0.05–0.2 | 0.124 | -0.01 | prior |
|
||||
| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.3–1.6 | 1.447 | -0.02 | measured |
|
||||
| Ko | 0.05–0.2 | 0.125 | +0.00 | prior |
|
||||
| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.3–1.6 | 1.449 | -0.01 | measured |
|
||||
| Pd | 0.8–0.9 | 0.850 | +0.01 | measured |
|
||||
| Pi | 0.56–0.7 | 0.631 | +0.02 | measured |
|
||||
| Pmem | 0.4–0.6 | 0.501 | +0.01 | measured |
|
||||
| Plin | 0.8–0.95 | 0.877 | +0.02 | measured |
|
||||
| Pm | 0.4–0.6 | 0.501 | +0.01 | prior |
|
||||
| Pm | 0.28–0.45 | 0.365 | +0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| B | 0.57–0.67 | 0.613 | -0.13 | measured |
|
||||
| B_trend | -0.01–0.0 | -0.005 | +0.01 | measured |
|
||||
| B_trend | -0.01–0.0 | -0.005 | -0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| A | 0.4–0.55 | 0.469 | -0.08 | measured |
|
||||
| E | 0.2–0.45 | 0.325 | -0.00 | prior |
|
||||
| E | 0.15–0.32 | 0.235 | -0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| Sig | 0.22–0.35 | 0.285 | +0.00 | measured |
|
||||
|
||||
### EU
|
||||
|
||||
| Target | Range | Model at t* | z | basis |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Ko | 0.04–0.15 | 0.091 | -0.07 | prior |
|
||||
| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.35–1.6 | 1.449 | -0.21 | measured |
|
||||
| Ko | 0.04–0.15 | 0.092 | -0.06 | prior |
|
||||
| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.35–1.6 | 1.452 | -0.18 | measured |
|
||||
| Pd | 0.84–0.94 | 0.890 | +0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| Pi | 0.56–0.76 | 0.661 | +0.01 | measured |
|
||||
| Pmem | 0.47–0.67 | 0.570 | +0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| Plin | 0.8–0.95 | 0.876 | +0.01 | measured |
|
||||
| B | 0.6–0.69 | 0.636 | -0.21 | measured |
|
||||
| A | 0.4–0.6 | 0.498 | -0.02 | prior |
|
||||
| E | 0.2–0.45 | 0.325 | -0.00 | prior |
|
||||
| A | 0.45–0.65 | 0.548 | -0.02 | measured |
|
||||
| E | 0.15–0.32 | 0.235 | -0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| Sig | 0.45–0.62 | 0.535 | +0.00 | measured |
|
||||
|
||||
### DE
|
||||
|
||||
| Target | Range | Model at t* | z | basis |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Ko | 0.05–0.18 | 0.112 | -0.04 | prior |
|
||||
| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.2–1.45 | 1.316 | -0.08 | measured |
|
||||
| Ko | 0.05–0.18 | 0.113 | -0.03 | prior |
|
||||
| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.2–1.45 | 1.318 | -0.06 | measured |
|
||||
| Pd | 0.83–0.93 | 0.880 | +0.01 | measured |
|
||||
| Pi | 0.56–0.76 | 0.662 | +0.02 | measured |
|
||||
| Pmem | 0.5–0.7 | 0.600 | +0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| Plin | 0.8–0.95 | 0.877 | +0.02 | measured |
|
||||
| B | 0.66–0.76 | 0.693 | -0.33 | measured |
|
||||
| A | 0.4–0.6 | 0.494 | -0.06 | prior |
|
||||
| E | 0.2–0.45 | 0.325 | -0.00 | prior |
|
||||
| B | 0.66–0.76 | 0.693 | -0.34 | measured |
|
||||
| A | 0.48–0.65 | 0.560 | -0.06 | measured |
|
||||
| E | 0.15–0.32 | 0.235 | -0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| Sig | 0.45–0.62 | 0.535 | +0.00 | measured |
|
||||
|
||||
### AR
|
||||
|
|
@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ range. Adoption scaled from anchor B2 by k; t* aligned by observed growth.
|
|||
| Ko | 0.05–0.17 | 0.110 | +0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| Pd | 0.89–0.98 | 0.935 | +0.01 | measured |
|
||||
| Plin | 0.8–0.95 | 0.876 | +0.02 | measured |
|
||||
| B | 0.45–0.65 | 0.540 | -0.10 | prior |
|
||||
| B | 0.49–0.61 | 0.540 | -0.17 | measured |
|
||||
| Sig | 0.36–0.5 | 0.430 | +0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| Pmem | 0.68–0.88 | 0.780 | +0.00 | measured |
|
||||
| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.25–1.65 | 1.443 | -0.03 | prior |
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
102
simulations/gadm02/results/gsa_gadm04_start_EU.md
Normal file
102
simulations/gadm02/results/gsa_gadm04_start_EU.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
|
|||
# GADM-0.4 global sensitivity analysis
|
||||
|
||||
Channel counters c_* are recalibrated per sample (not varied); wealth_on is fixed.
|
||||
|
||||
Generated by `simulations/gadm02/gsa.py`.
|
||||
Output: final VFAC (t = 100 years). Parameters vary ±50 % around the scenario
|
||||
value (levers clipped to [0, 1]; zero-valued parameters in [0, 0.1]).
|
||||
Morris: 20 trajectories, 4 levels. Sobol: S1 Saltelli (2010, centred), ST Jansen, N = 256,
|
||||
bootstrap 95 % intervals, seed 20261012. Parameters outside the Sobol set stay at
|
||||
their scenario values.
|
||||
|
||||
μ* ranks importance. A σ that is large relative to μ* indicates
|
||||
interactions or non-linearity. ST − S1 is the share of variance due to
|
||||
interactions involving that parameter.
|
||||
|
||||
## Baseline (current trends) — calibrated start EU
|
||||
|
||||
### Morris screening (top 15)
|
||||
|
||||
| Rank | Parameter | μ* | μ | σ |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 1 | `IX` | 0.0431 | +0.0431 | 0.0100 |
|
||||
| 2 | `dO` | 0.0297 | +0.0285 | 0.0164 |
|
||||
| 3 | `lX` | 0.0279 | -0.0279 | 0.0068 |
|
||||
| 4 | `ereg` | 0.0265 | +0.0265 | 0.0086 |
|
||||
| 5 | `arec` | 0.0251 | +0.0251 | 0.0079 |
|
||||
| 6 | `dX` | 0.0239 | -0.0239 | 0.0084 |
|
||||
| 7 | `q0` | 0.0237 | +0.0237 | 0.0075 |
|
||||
| 8 | `aext` | 0.0235 | -0.0235 | 0.0067 |
|
||||
| 9 | `n1` | 0.0222 | +0.0222 | 0.0103 |
|
||||
| 10 | `x_att` | 0.0219 | -0.0219 | 0.0051 |
|
||||
| 11 | `q2` | 0.0213 | -0.0213 | 0.0076 |
|
||||
| 12 | `g1` | 0.0192 | +0.0192 | 0.0046 |
|
||||
| 13 | `n3` | 0.0180 | -0.0180 | 0.0043 |
|
||||
| 14 | `aX` | 0.0179 | +0.0179 | 0.0109 |
|
||||
| 15 | `b1` | 0.0173 | -0.0173 | 0.0034 |
|
||||
|
||||
Reuse bundle Morris ranks: `rho0` 29, `IX` 1, `lin_open` 28, `std` 32
|
||||
|
||||
### Sobol indices
|
||||
|
||||
| Parameter | S1 | S1 95 % CI | ST | ST 95 % CI | ST − S1 |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| `IX` | 0.336 | [0.259, 0.425] | 0.326 | [0.273, 0.390] | -0.009 |
|
||||
| `dO` | 0.138 | [0.075, 0.194] | 0.127 | [0.102, 0.158] | -0.011 |
|
||||
| `lX` | 0.112 | [0.050, 0.159] | 0.112 | [0.092, 0.132] | -0.000 |
|
||||
| `dX` | 0.097 | [0.044, 0.147] | 0.082 | [0.069, 0.100] | -0.015 |
|
||||
| `q0` | 0.004 | [-0.048, 0.058] | 0.074 | [0.061, 0.089] | +0.070 |
|
||||
| `ereg` | 0.069 | [0.026, 0.109] | 0.071 | [0.058, 0.086] | +0.001 |
|
||||
| `arec` | 0.070 | [0.037, 0.110] | 0.064 | [0.051, 0.079] | -0.006 |
|
||||
| `aext` | 0.066 | [0.021, 0.105] | 0.058 | [0.048, 0.070] | -0.007 |
|
||||
| `x_att` | 0.060 | [0.019, 0.097] | 0.057 | [0.046, 0.070] | -0.003 |
|
||||
| `n1` | 0.062 | [0.023, 0.101] | 0.048 | [0.039, 0.057] | -0.014 |
|
||||
| `std` | 0.006 | [-0.018, 0.033] | 0.025 | [0.021, 0.030] | +0.019 |
|
||||
| `lin_open` | 0.019 | [-0.001, 0.039] | 0.014 | [0.011, 0.017] | -0.005 |
|
||||
| `rho0` | 0.002 | [-0.018, 0.023] | 0.013 | [0.011, 0.016] | +0.011 |
|
||||
|
||||
Sum of S1 over analysed parameters: 1.042. Reuse bundle: ΣS1 = 0.364, ΣST = 0.379.
|
||||
|
||||
## Generative regime — calibrated start EU
|
||||
|
||||
### Morris screening (top 15)
|
||||
|
||||
| Rank | Parameter | μ* | μ | σ |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 1 | `IX` | 0.0420 | +0.0420 | 0.0167 |
|
||||
| 2 | `ereg` | 0.0363 | +0.0363 | 0.0105 |
|
||||
| 3 | `dO` | 0.0297 | +0.0286 | 0.0148 |
|
||||
| 4 | `lX` | 0.0279 | -0.0279 | 0.0107 |
|
||||
| 5 | `arec` | 0.0268 | +0.0268 | 0.0080 |
|
||||
| 6 | `n1` | 0.0262 | +0.0262 | 0.0118 |
|
||||
| 7 | `dX` | 0.0244 | -0.0244 | 0.0097 |
|
||||
| 8 | `aext` | 0.0242 | -0.0242 | 0.0063 |
|
||||
| 9 | `q0` | 0.0240 | +0.0240 | 0.0123 |
|
||||
| 10 | `x_att` | 0.0228 | -0.0228 | 0.0058 |
|
||||
| 11 | `aX` | 0.0223 | +0.0223 | 0.0103 |
|
||||
| 12 | `q2` | 0.0219 | -0.0219 | 0.0099 |
|
||||
| 13 | `g1` | 0.0201 | +0.0201 | 0.0064 |
|
||||
| 14 | `std` | 0.0198 | +0.0198 | 0.0096 |
|
||||
| 15 | `expl` | 0.0192 | +0.0192 | 0.0112 |
|
||||
|
||||
Reuse bundle Morris ranks: `rho0` 20, `IX` 1, `lin_open` 29, `std` 14
|
||||
|
||||
### Sobol indices
|
||||
|
||||
| Parameter | S1 | S1 95 % CI | ST | ST 95 % CI | ST − S1 |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| `IX` | 0.240 | [0.168, 0.328] | 0.241 | [0.202, 0.283] | +0.001 |
|
||||
| `lX` | 0.098 | [0.035, 0.150] | 0.125 | [0.100, 0.152] | +0.028 |
|
||||
| `ereg` | 0.088 | [0.038, 0.142] | 0.103 | [0.085, 0.127] | +0.014 |
|
||||
| `dX` | 0.167 | [0.118, 0.215] | 0.090 | [0.072, 0.109] | -0.077 |
|
||||
| `dO` | 0.056 | [0.012, 0.097] | 0.072 | [0.058, 0.088] | +0.016 |
|
||||
| `arec` | 0.064 | [0.031, 0.106] | 0.058 | [0.046, 0.074] | -0.005 |
|
||||
| `x_att` | 0.032 | [-0.005, 0.075] | 0.055 | [0.046, 0.068] | +0.023 |
|
||||
| `q0` | 0.066 | [0.023, 0.105] | 0.055 | [0.043, 0.067] | -0.011 |
|
||||
| `n1` | 0.034 | [-0.007, 0.072] | 0.053 | [0.044, 0.064] | +0.019 |
|
||||
| `aext` | 0.032 | [-0.011, 0.071] | 0.053 | [0.045, 0.064] | +0.021 |
|
||||
| `std` | 0.046 | [0.013, 0.074] | 0.053 | [0.042, 0.063] | +0.006 |
|
||||
| `rho0` | 0.019 | [-0.006, 0.048] | 0.039 | [0.030, 0.048] | +0.020 |
|
||||
| `lin_open` | 0.021 | [-0.011, 0.055] | 0.032 | [0.025, 0.041] | +0.012 |
|
||||
|
||||
Sum of S1 over analysed parameters: 0.963. Reuse bundle: ΣS1 = 0.326, ΣST = 0.364.
|
||||
102
simulations/gadm02/results/gsa_gadm04_start_US.md
Normal file
102
simulations/gadm02/results/gsa_gadm04_start_US.md
Normal file
|
|
@ -0,0 +1,102 @@
|
|||
# GADM-0.4 global sensitivity analysis
|
||||
|
||||
Channel counters c_* are recalibrated per sample (not varied); wealth_on is fixed.
|
||||
|
||||
Generated by `simulations/gadm02/gsa.py`.
|
||||
Output: final VFAC (t = 100 years). Parameters vary ±50 % around the scenario
|
||||
value (levers clipped to [0, 1]; zero-valued parameters in [0, 0.1]).
|
||||
Morris: 20 trajectories, 4 levels. Sobol: S1 Saltelli (2010, centred), ST Jansen, N = 256,
|
||||
bootstrap 95 % intervals, seed 20261012. Parameters outside the Sobol set stay at
|
||||
their scenario values.
|
||||
|
||||
μ* ranks importance. A σ that is large relative to μ* indicates
|
||||
interactions or non-linearity. ST − S1 is the share of variance due to
|
||||
interactions involving that parameter.
|
||||
|
||||
## Baseline (current trends) — calibrated start US
|
||||
|
||||
### Morris screening (top 15)
|
||||
|
||||
| Rank | Parameter | μ* | μ | σ |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 1 | `dO` | 0.0496 | +0.0496 | 0.0160 |
|
||||
| 2 | `IX` | 0.0393 | +0.0393 | 0.0084 |
|
||||
| 3 | `ell` | 0.0263 | -0.0263 | 0.0082 |
|
||||
| 4 | `ereg` | 0.0231 | +0.0231 | 0.0069 |
|
||||
| 5 | `arec` | 0.0229 | +0.0229 | 0.0061 |
|
||||
| 6 | `aext` | 0.0228 | -0.0228 | 0.0053 |
|
||||
| 7 | `n1` | 0.0213 | +0.0213 | 0.0096 |
|
||||
| 8 | `lX` | 0.0205 | -0.0205 | 0.0048 |
|
||||
| 9 | `g1` | 0.0201 | +0.0201 | 0.0044 |
|
||||
| 10 | `x_att` | 0.0177 | -0.0177 | 0.0029 |
|
||||
| 11 | `dX` | 0.0173 | -0.0173 | 0.0048 |
|
||||
| 12 | `q0` | 0.0167 | +0.0167 | 0.0068 |
|
||||
| 13 | `oseed` | 0.0157 | -0.0157 | 0.0059 |
|
||||
| 14 | `wL0` | 0.0142 | +0.0142 | 0.0061 |
|
||||
| 15 | `e2` | 0.0138 | -0.0138 | 0.0049 |
|
||||
|
||||
Reuse bundle Morris ranks: `rho0` 31, `IX` 2, `lin_open` 78, `std` 36
|
||||
|
||||
### Sobol indices
|
||||
|
||||
| Parameter | S1 | S1 95 % CI | ST | ST 95 % CI | ST − S1 |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| `dO` | 0.321 | [0.247, 0.408] | 0.293 | [0.246, 0.353] | -0.028 |
|
||||
| `IX` | 0.281 | [0.185, 0.362] | 0.255 | [0.207, 0.312] | -0.026 |
|
||||
| `ell` | 0.079 | [0.027, 0.121] | 0.082 | [0.068, 0.099] | +0.003 |
|
||||
| `lX` | 0.068 | [0.017, 0.113] | 0.070 | [0.058, 0.082] | +0.002 |
|
||||
| `ereg` | 0.055 | [0.016, 0.091] | 0.059 | [0.049, 0.070] | +0.004 |
|
||||
| `arec` | 0.066 | [0.034, 0.102] | 0.054 | [0.044, 0.067] | -0.012 |
|
||||
| `g1` | 0.067 | [0.027, 0.102] | 0.054 | [0.044, 0.064] | -0.014 |
|
||||
| `aext` | 0.075 | [0.037, 0.117] | 0.052 | [0.043, 0.062] | -0.023 |
|
||||
| `n1` | -0.012 | [-0.051, 0.030] | 0.045 | [0.038, 0.053] | +0.057 |
|
||||
| `x_att` | 0.035 | [-0.000, 0.069] | 0.042 | [0.033, 0.052] | +0.006 |
|
||||
| `std` | -0.001 | [-0.019, 0.017] | 0.014 | [0.010, 0.017] | +0.014 |
|
||||
| `rho0` | 0.003 | [-0.011, 0.015] | 0.006 | [0.005, 0.007] | +0.003 |
|
||||
| `lin_open` | 0.002 | [-0.000, 0.005] | 0.000 | [0.000, 0.000] | -0.002 |
|
||||
|
||||
Sum of S1 over analysed parameters: 1.041. Reuse bundle: ΣS1 = 0.285, ΣST = 0.275.
|
||||
|
||||
## Generative regime — calibrated start US
|
||||
|
||||
### Morris screening (top 15)
|
||||
|
||||
| Rank | Parameter | μ* | μ | σ |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| 1 | `ereg` | 0.0398 | +0.0398 | 0.0113 |
|
||||
| 2 | `IX` | 0.0378 | +0.0378 | 0.0205 |
|
||||
| 3 | `n1` | 0.0314 | +0.0314 | 0.0133 |
|
||||
| 4 | `expl` | 0.0274 | +0.0274 | 0.0230 |
|
||||
| 5 | `aX` | 0.0271 | +0.0271 | 0.0174 |
|
||||
| 6 | `lX` | 0.0263 | -0.0263 | 0.0116 |
|
||||
| 7 | `dX` | 0.0255 | -0.0255 | 0.0123 |
|
||||
| 8 | `arec` | 0.0241 | +0.0241 | 0.0084 |
|
||||
| 9 | `q0` | 0.0240 | +0.0240 | 0.0073 |
|
||||
| 10 | `dO` | 0.0238 | +0.0214 | 0.0159 |
|
||||
| 11 | `q2` | 0.0227 | -0.0227 | 0.0195 |
|
||||
| 12 | `m` | 0.0223 | +0.0223 | 0.0102 |
|
||||
| 13 | `std` | 0.0221 | +0.0221 | 0.0122 |
|
||||
| 14 | `e2` | 0.0217 | -0.0217 | 0.0083 |
|
||||
| 15 | `aext` | 0.0205 | -0.0205 | 0.0063 |
|
||||
|
||||
Reuse bundle Morris ranks: `rho0` 23, `IX` 2, `lin_open` 22, `std` 13
|
||||
|
||||
### Sobol indices
|
||||
|
||||
| Parameter | S1 | S1 95 % CI | ST | ST 95 % CI | ST − S1 |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| `IX` | 0.165 | [0.093, 0.229] | 0.196 | [0.162, 0.237] | +0.031 |
|
||||
| `ereg` | 0.166 | [0.111, 0.224] | 0.113 | [0.096, 0.131] | -0.054 |
|
||||
| `dX` | 0.129 | [0.078, 0.184] | 0.098 | [0.078, 0.123] | -0.031 |
|
||||
| `aX` | 0.056 | [0.008, 0.109] | 0.097 | [0.076, 0.120] | +0.040 |
|
||||
| `expl` | 0.086 | [0.039, 0.140] | 0.094 | [0.077, 0.111] | +0.009 |
|
||||
| `lX` | 0.121 | [0.071, 0.174] | 0.089 | [0.075, 0.107] | -0.032 |
|
||||
| `n1` | 0.091 | [0.057, 0.134] | 0.072 | [0.059, 0.087] | -0.019 |
|
||||
| `q0` | 0.066 | [0.019, 0.110] | 0.069 | [0.055, 0.082] | +0.002 |
|
||||
| `std` | 0.066 | [0.023, 0.104] | 0.057 | [0.045, 0.068] | -0.009 |
|
||||
| `lin_open` | 0.068 | [0.032, 0.113] | 0.056 | [0.044, 0.069] | -0.011 |
|
||||
| `arec` | 0.046 | [0.005, 0.090] | 0.051 | [0.043, 0.061] | +0.006 |
|
||||
| `rho0` | 0.065 | [0.029, 0.100] | 0.049 | [0.038, 0.061] | -0.016 |
|
||||
| `dO` | 0.058 | [0.019, 0.100] | 0.048 | [0.036, 0.058] | -0.011 |
|
||||
|
||||
Sum of S1 over analysed parameters: 1.183. Reuse bundle: ΣS1 = 0.363, ΣST = 0.358.
|
||||
|
|
@ -35,11 +35,11 @@ Goal: two scenario modes on one model.
|
|||
This workplan was revised against the calibrated, partly measured start
|
||||
(`models/Calibration.md` v0.2, `results/calibrated_starts.json`):
|
||||
|
||||
- Concentration is measured (Calibration v0.3, 28 of 28 measured targets
|
||||
- Concentration is measured (Calibration v0.4, 35 of 35 measured targets
|
||||
fitted): leading search share 0.85–0.94, mobile-OS HHI 0.50–0.78, cloud
|
||||
top-3 share 0.63, frontier-model top-3 spend 0.88. Outside the US, all of
|
||||
these channels are run by foreign operators.
|
||||
- Starting domination is US 0.69, EU 0.72, AR 0.75: at or above the floor
|
||||
- Starting domination is US 0.68, EU 0.72, AR 0.75: at or above the floor
|
||||
(0.70) everywhere.
|
||||
- BR-007: the EU, already at rights-first levers, cannot bring P down. Its
|
||||
domination is set abroad. That is the acceptance test for this workplan:
|
||||
|
|
@ -48,7 +48,7 @@ This workplan was revised against the calibrated, partly measured start
|
|||
- Adoption: present between B2 and B3; fitted speed k 1.3–1.8 × B2.
|
||||
|
||||
All runs start from `calibrated_starts.json`. WP-0015 continues to replace
|
||||
the remaining priors (Pm, E, EU/DE attention, AR B and growth); re-run T05 after each re-calibration.
|
||||
the remaining priors (EU/AR Pm, AR growth; WP-0015-T06); re-run T05 after each re-calibration.
|
||||
|
||||
## Cross-border channels: inventory and evidence
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -24,8 +24,8 @@ jurisdiction or society operates under has changed significantly.
|
|||
|
||||
## Calibrated starting point (set up 2026-10-13, after calibration)
|
||||
|
||||
The calibration (`models/Calibration.md` v0.3: 39 of 39 targets in range,
|
||||
28 measured) gives the first matching evidence:
|
||||
The calibration (`models/Calibration.md` v0.4: 39 of 39 targets in range,
|
||||
35 measured) gives the first matching evidence:
|
||||
|
||||
- Aligned by measured growth, **B1 cannot reproduce today's adoption growth**
|
||||
(US, EU, DE). B2 lands slightly low, B3 fits, and B4 overshoots the level
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -4,7 +4,7 @@ type: workplan
|
|||
title: "First checkpoint review: measured targets, manual indicators, re-calibration"
|
||||
domain: communication
|
||||
repo: assembly-economics
|
||||
status: proposed
|
||||
status: active
|
||||
flavor: residual
|
||||
depends_on: [ASSEMBLY-WP-0013, ASSEMBLY-WP-0009]
|
||||
owner: claude-code
|
||||
|
|
@ -30,12 +30,12 @@ the re-calibrated state this workplan produces.
|
|||
|
||||
```task
|
||||
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T01
|
||||
status: progress
|
||||
status: done
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
state_hub_task_id: "cb9cc96b-ab9c-5df1-956a-d168efce1fd6"
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Partly done 2026-10-13:** L6 US, EU, AR and L3 AR (level) in `checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md`. L4 and L7 are open, and secondary-source figures need checking against the originals.
|
||||
**Done 2026-10-13:** L3 (AR level), L4, L6 (US, EU, AR) and L7 (EU, US, AR) in `checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md`; mapping update in `models/AdoptionBand.md` § 4.4. Secondary-source figures are marked there; checking them against the originals is part of the next regular review.
|
||||
|
||||
For each indicator, record the value with source, reference period and
|
||||
retrieval date in a review record `checkpoints/2026/<date>-review.md`:
|
||||
|
|
@ -58,12 +58,12 @@ Where a source is machine-readable after all, add a `sources.json` spec.
|
|||
|
||||
```task
|
||||
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T02
|
||||
status: progress
|
||||
status: done
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
state_hub_task_id: "7533595c-21cc-5526-84fc-a33a1d1adc90"
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Partly done 2026-10-13:** 28 targets measured (Pd, Pmem, Pi, Plin, B, US A, Σ, AR adoption level). Open: Pm, E, EU/DE attention, AR B, AR adoption growth.
|
||||
**Done 2026-10-13:** 35 of 39 targets measured (Calibration v0.4). The rest moved to T06.
|
||||
|
||||
Replace `prior` targets in `simulations/gadm02/calibration_targets.json` with
|
||||
measured ranges, citing source and date in `op`:
|
||||
|
|
@ -88,7 +88,7 @@ priority: high
|
|||
state_hub_task_id: "0813f5cd-9ba1-5530-a2e5-4a66f3d98610"
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Done 2026-10-13:** Calibration v0.3, 39 of 39 targets in range; `aext` and `auto` fitted in addition. Verdict and R1–R4 unchanged. Later updates follow `models/Calibration.md` § 5.
|
||||
**Done 2026-10-13:** Calibration v0.4, 39 of 39 targets in range; `aext` and `auto` fitted in addition. Verdict and R1–R4 unchanged. Later updates follow `models/Calibration.md` § 5.
|
||||
|
||||
Follow `models/Calibration.md` § 5. Re-run `calibrate_data.py` and
|
||||
`calibrated_readings.py`. Compare k, t*, the anchor verdict (today: between
|
||||
|
|
@ -103,11 +103,13 @@ rather than taken from the archetype.
|
|||
|
||||
```task
|
||||
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T04
|
||||
status: todo
|
||||
status: done
|
||||
priority: medium
|
||||
state_hub_task_id: "5ee785e7-004c-5f59-b558-64341412e9bf"
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Done 2026-10-13:** `gsa.py --start`; results for US and EU in `models/Calibration.md` § 4.1. Commons and ecology lead; explainability falls back.
|
||||
|
||||
The WP-0009-T05 GSA ran around the uncalibrated band anchors. Add a
|
||||
`--start <jurisdiction>` option to `gsa.py` that uses
|
||||
`results/calibrated_starts.json`. Run it for US and EU. Question: do the
|
||||
|
|
@ -118,14 +120,38 @@ dominant drivers of VFAC change once domination starts near the floor
|
|||
|
||||
```task
|
||||
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T05
|
||||
status: todo
|
||||
status: done
|
||||
priority: medium
|
||||
state_hub_task_id: "5a862792-59c7-5e95-acfb-f370ba84d267"
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**Done 2026-10-13:** first observations appended to P-2026-001 (BTOS still about 1.7× per year, no slowdown) and baselines to P-2026-004. The alignment did not change in Calibration v0.3 (B3 fits best, as v1 assumed), so no predictions v2 are needed yet.
|
||||
|
||||
Append the first observations to P-2026-001 (BTOS, from the setup and monthly
|
||||
checkpoints) and P-2026-004 (sentiment baseline from T01), following the
|
||||
register rules: append only, never edit. Note whether the US BTOS series still
|
||||
grows at about 1.46 per year. A clear slowdown already in late 2026 would
|
||||
favour B2 over B3. If the re-calibration (T03) changes the alignment, register
|
||||
predictions v2 as new entries that supersede v1.
|
||||
|
||||
## Remaining priors: EU/AR market concentration, AR adoption growth
|
||||
|
||||
```task
|
||||
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T06
|
||||
status: wait
|
||||
priority: medium
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
Waits for data that does not exist yet as of 2026-10-13.
|
||||
|
||||
- **AR adoption growth:** the second data point of the Google/IDB study, or
|
||||
INDEC's ICT survey. Then fit AR's k from measured growth instead of the
|
||||
prior 1.25–1.65.
|
||||
- **Pm for the EU and AR:** an economy-wide concentration operator consistent
|
||||
with the US one (top-firm share of listed market value, for example the
|
||||
STOXX 600 top 10, MERVAL top 5). Add it as `sources.json` specs if
|
||||
machine-readable.
|
||||
|
||||
Then re-calibrate (`models/Calibration.md` § 5) and check whether readings
|
||||
R1–R4 change. Also verify the secondary-source figures marked in
|
||||
`checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md` against their originals.
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Add table
Add a link
Reference in a new issue