diff --git a/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md b/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md index 9362899..c2eced7 100644 --- a/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md +++ b/checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md @@ -1,7 +1,11 @@ # Checkpoint indicator catalog -**Status:** v0.1 (minimal, for setup runs). ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01 extends it to -full sensor bundles for all stocks (`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`). +**Status:** v0.2 (2026-10-13). v0.1 held only the light and full lists. v0.2 +adds a sensor bundle for every GADM stock (§ Stock sensor bundles), following +`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`. IDs L1–L7 and F1–F8 are unchanged because +recorded checkpoints refer to them. Only indicators with an entry in +`sources.json` are fetched automatically. All others are collected by hand at +reviews. Jurisdictions: **US**, **EU** (with Germany where available), **Argentina** (the owner's hypotheses: the EU lags, Argentina may thrive). Add others only @@ -35,3 +39,176 @@ one. | F6 | Displaced-worker re-employment by age | US | BLS Displaced Worker Survey (biennial) | senior agency modifiers | | F7 | Public R&D share of GDP; open-source investment initiatives | US, EU, DE | OECD MSTI; national data | commons investment IX | | F8 | Energy use of data centers | US, EU | IEA; national energy agencies | ecological draw of K_Ω (`e2`) | + +## Stock sensor bundles + +One bundle per GADM stock, with the four measure kinds from +`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`: **O** objective outcome, **St** structural, +**B** behavioral, **Su** subjective. Most bundles reuse L and F indicators +where they apply. + +Column *Access*: **api** = machine-readable source that can get a +`sources.json` entry; **file** = downloadable tables without a stable API; +**manual** = report, paywall or registration, collected by hand. The access +values are not yet verified against web-fetcher. Verification and wiring +belong to ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T08. + +Cadence: **a** annual, **q** quarterly, **m** monthly, **irr** irregular or +multi-year survey waves. Bundles are collected at full (annual) checkpoints +unless an L indicator already covers them. + +### H — Human capability + +| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| H1 | O | Healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth | US, EU, DE, AR | WHO Global Health Observatory | api | a | +| H2 | O | Adult literacy, numeracy, adaptive problem solving | US, DE (no AR) | OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC cycle 2) | file | irr | +| H3 | St | Public expenditure on education, % of GDP | US, EU, DE, AR | World Bank WDI; UNESCO UIS | api | a | +| H4 | B | Adult participation in learning (last 4 weeks) | EU, DE | Eurostat `trng_lfse_01` | api | a | +| H5 | Su | Perceived freedom of choice and control over one's life | US, DE, AR | World Values Survey; Gallup World Poll (via World Happiness Report) | file | irr | + +Gaps: no unassisted-capability measure (MetricsCatalog link #40). Argentina +is not in PIAAC; PISA covers only 15-year-olds. + +### X — Assembly commons + +| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| X1 | O | Reuse of open packages (dependents per package, top ecosystems) | global | ecosyste.ms; deps.dev | api | q | +| X2 | St | Open-access share of research output | US, EU, DE, AR | OpenAlex | api | a | +| X3 | B | Developers and git pushes per economy | US, DE, AR, EU members | GitHub Innovation Graph | file | q | +| X4 | B | Maintainer continuity in critical projects | global | OpenSSF Scorecard; CHAOSS metrics | api | irr | +| X5 | Su | Developers' ease of building on existing components | global, per country | Stack Overflow Developer Survey | file | a | +| F7 | St | Public R&D share; open-source investment | US, EU, DE | OECD MSTI | api | a | + +### K_phys / K_Ω — Productive capacity and organism capability + +| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| L4 | O | AI task coverage by occupation; automation vs. augmentation | global | Anthropic Economic Index | manual | irr | +| K1 | O | Labour productivity growth | US, EU, DE, AR | BLS; Eurostat `nama_10_lp_ulc`; ILOSTAT | api | q/a | +| K2 | St | Installed supercomputing capacity per country | US, EU, DE | TOP500 | file | semiannual | +| K3 | St | Number of independent developers of notable or frontier models | global, per country | Epoch AI data; Stanford AI Index | file | irr | +| L5 | St | Investment in information-processing equipment | US | BEA via FRED | api | q | +| L1–L3 | B | Firm adoption of AI | US, EU, DE, AR | BTOS; Eurostat; manual for AR | api / manual | 2-weekly / a | +| K4 | Su | Workers' assessment of AI usefulness at work | US, EU | Pew Research; Eurofound | manual | irr | + +Report K together with B (F1) and P, as the MetricsCatalog requires. + +### F — Risk capacity + +| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| F-R1 | O | Business applications (high-propensity) | US | Census Business Formation Statistics via FRED | api | m | +| F-R2 | O | Business registrations and bankruptcy declarations | EU, DE | Eurostat `sts_rb_q` | api | q | +| F-R3 | O | Employer firm births and deaths | AR | Ministerio de Trabajo, OEDE (Observatorio de Empleo y Dinámica Empresarial) | file | q | +| F-R4 | St | Insolvency and business-entry regime | US, DE, AR | World Bank B-READY | file | a | +| F-R5 | B | Total early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA) | US, DE, AR | Global Entrepreneurship Monitor | file | a | +| F-R6 | Su | Fear-of-failure rate | US, DE, AR | Global Entrepreneurship Monitor | file | a | + +Gap: no source separates founders without inherited wealth. + +### G — Effective agency + +| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| G1 | O | Intergenerational income mobility | US | Opportunity Insights | file | irr | +| G2 | O | Re-employment of displaced workers by age | US | BLS Displaced Worker Survey (= F6) | file | biennial | +| G3 | St | Data and service portability rules in force | EU, US, AR | EU Data Act, DMA; legislative trackers (with L7) | manual | irr | +| G4 | B | Job-to-job transition rate | US, EU | Census J2J; Eurostat LFS `lfsi_long_e01` | api | q | +| H5 | Su | Perceived freedom of choice (shared with H) | US, DE, AR | WVS; Gallup | file | irr | + +Gap: restartability (time × cost × restrictions) has no direct source; it +needs a composite built from F-R4, G2 and G4. + +### N — Diversity & composability + +| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| N1 | O | Firm entry and exit rates (business dynamism) | US | Census Business Dynamics Statistics | api | a | +| N2 | O | Diversity of model publishers (entropy of downloads by organization) | global | Hugging Face Hub API | api | q | +| F2 | St | Concentration per component class | US, EU | competition authorities, trackers | manual | a | +| N3 | B | Multi-vendor use of AI models and clouds by firms | US, EU | vendor and analyst surveys | manual | irr | +| N4 | Su | Perceived lock-in | global | Stack Overflow Developer Survey; Eurostat cloud module | file | a | + +Gap: interoperability test pass rates have no public series. + +### Q — Epistemic capacity + +| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| Q1 | O | Reported AI incidents and time to response | global | AI Incident Database | api | irr | +| Q2 | St | Press freedom; freedom of academic and cultural expression | US, EU, DE, AR | RSF World Press Freedom Index; V-Dem | file | a | +| Q3 | St | Concentration of news and information channels | US, DE, AR | Reuters Institute Digital News Report; StatCounter (search share) | file | a / m | +| Q4 | B | Share of AI-mediated decisions with retrievable provenance | EU | AI Act transparency obligations (with L7) | manual | irr | +| Q5 | Su | Trust in news and in AI-generated information | US, DE, AR | Reuters Institute Digital News Report; Edelman | file | a | + +Caveat: Q5 measures trust *levels*. Calibration (trust against reliability) +needs Q1 or Q2 alongside. Disagreement between them is the finding. + +### P — Domination concentration (per channel) + +| ID | Kind | Channel | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| F2 | O | market | Top-firm shares, HHI in digital sectors | US, EU | competition authorities | manual | a | +| P1 | St | infrastructure | Cloud infrastructure market shares | global, regional | Synergy Research; Canalys (press summaries) | manual | q | +| P2 | St | discovery | Search engine market share | US, DE, AR | StatCounter Global Stats | file | m | +| P3 | St | membrane | Mobile OS and browser shares | US, DE, AR | StatCounter Global Stats | file | m | +| P4 | St | lineage | Share of notable models from the top three developers | global | Epoch AI; Stanford AI Index (with K3) | file | irr | +| P5 | St | political | Lobbying spend of large technology firms | US, EU | OpenSecrets; EU Transparency Register | api | q / a | +| P6 | B | — | Self-preferencing and exclusion decisions | US, EU | FTC, DOJ, European Commission DMA decisions | manual | irr | +| P7 | Su | — | Perceived ability to contest decisions of platforms | EU | Eurobarometer (when asked) | manual | irr | + +### E — Ecological headroom + +| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| E1 | O | Territorial CO₂ emissions | US, EU, DE, AR | Global Carbon Budget; Our World in Data | api | a | +| E2 | O | Domestic material consumption per capita | US, EU, DE, AR | UNEP IRP Global Material Flows; Eurostat `env_ac_mfa` | file / api | a | +| E3 | St | Electricity mix (low-carbon share) | US, EU, DE, AR | Ember | api | m | +| E4 | St | Circular material use rate | EU, DE | Eurostat `env_ac_cur` | api | a | +| F8 | B | Data-center energy use | US, EU | IEA; national energy agencies | manual | a | + +Su is empty by design (MetricsCatalog). + +### S — Social cohesion + +| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| S1 | O | Political violence and protest events | US, AR | ACLED (registration) | manual | m | +| S2 | St | Democracy and deliberation indices | US, EU, DE, AR | V-Dem | file | a | +| S3 | B | Voter turnout in national elections | US, DE, AR | International IDEA | file | per election | +| S4 | Su | Generalized interpersonal trust | US, DE, AR | World Values Survey; Latinobarómetro (AR) | file | irr / a | +| S5 | Su | Trust in national institutions | US, EU, DE, AR | Pew; Eurobarometer; Latinobarómetro | file | a | + +### A — Attention headroom + +| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence | +|---|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| F4 | O | Time use: leisure, TV, social media | US, EU | BLS ATUS; Eurostat HETUS | api / file | a / irr | +| A1 | O | Time use including unpaid care | AR | INDEC Encuesta Nacional de Uso del Tiempo (2021) | file | irr | +| A2 | St | Rules on engagement design and default notifications | EU, US | DSA enforcement; state laws (with L7) | manual | irr | +| A3 | B | Daily time on social media and on the internet | US, DE, AR | DataReportal (GWI survey) | manual | a | +| A4 | Su | Reported time scarcity; perceived control over attention | US | Pew Research | manual | irr | + +Caveat: A3 measures captured attention. It is the inverse of A, not A +itself (MetricsCatalog, Goodhart risk). F4 and A1 give self-directed time. + +## Coverage summary + +| Stock | O | St | B | Su | AR covered | +|---|---|---|---|---|---| +| H | H1, H2 | H3 | H4 (EU only) | H5 | partly | +| X | X1 | X2, F7 | X3, X4 | X5 | X2, X3 | +| K | L4, K1 | K2, K3, L5 | L1–L3 | K4 | L3 manual | +| F | F-R1–3 | F-R4 | F-R5 | F-R6 | yes | +| G | G1, G2 (US only) | G3 | G4 | H5 | weak | +| N | N1, N2 | F2 | N3 | N4 | no | +| Q | Q1 | Q2, Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | yes | +| P | F2 | P1–P5 | P6 | P7 | P2, P3 | +| E | E1, E2 | E3, E4 | F8 | — | E1–E3 | +| S | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4, S5 | yes | +| A | F4, A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 | A1 only | + +Weakest bundles: G (restartability), N (composability) and Q (calibration). +Their readings should carry wide uncertainty until better sources exist. diff --git a/metrics/MetricsCatalog.md b/metrics/MetricsCatalog.md index 5c8feca..7ec7d74 100644 --- a/metrics/MetricsCatalog.md +++ b/metrics/MetricsCatalog.md @@ -29,6 +29,9 @@ Rules for using the catalog: 4. Changes to indicators are governed like model changes: versioned, with a rationale (WS-11, governance of metrics). +Concrete sources per jurisdiction for each bundle are listed in +`checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md` (v0.2). + --- ## H — Human capability diff --git a/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md b/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md index 86f9492..4d7b564 100644 --- a/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md +++ b/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md @@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ depends_on: [] owner: claude-code topic_slug: coulomb-social created: "2026-10-12" -updated: "2026-10-12" +updated: "2026-10-13" state_hub_workstream_id: "a878617a-bde6-5690-9b8d-f44c72f253dc" --- @@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ technical data, per jurisdiction where possible. ```task id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01 -status: progress +status: done priority: high state_hub_task_id: "52cb88b0-9a5c-583f-a983-4b331f255f9e" ``` @@ -36,6 +36,10 @@ displaced-worker re-employment, trust and sentiment surveys, AI legislation trackers. Store in `checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md`, linked to `metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`. +**Done 2026-10-13:** catalog v0.2 has sensor bundles (O/St/B/Su) for all +eleven stocks, with jurisdiction, source, access class and cadence, and a +coverage summary. The weakest bundles are G, N and Q. Wiring sources is T08. + ## Checkpoint protocol and prediction register format ```task @@ -125,3 +129,17 @@ The founder creates `coulomb/web-fetcher` on forgejo.coulomb.social (push-to-create is disabled). Then: push from the workstation, repoint the railiance01 checkout (currently cloned from a git bundle) to origin, and register the repo with the State Hub (`statehub register`). + +## Machine-readable sources for full-checkpoint bundles + +```task +id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T08 +status: todo +priority: medium +``` + +For each catalog v0.2 indicator marked `api` or `file`, check that +web-fetcher can retrieve it and add a `sources.json` spec (`kind: full`) +with an adapter. Mark any that fail as `manual` in the catalog. Do this +before the first annual full checkpoint. Full runs pick up every spec, so +test each adapter with `--no-llm` before committing.