# Reality checkpoints

Regular comparison of the GADM adoption band and model readings with
observed economic, sociological and technical data. Method:
`research/ScenarioBandMethod.md` § 6. Workplan: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010.

## Files

| File | Purpose |
|---|---|
| `schedule.md` | phase windows; every run checks it first |
| `PLAYBOOK.md` | step-by-step instructions for the executing agent |
| `IndicatorCatalog.md` | indicators, jurisdictions, sources, mapping to model quantities |
| `predictions.md` | append-only register of pre-registered predictions |
| `YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md` | one record per checkpoint run |

## Protocol

1. **Window check.** Is today inside an active window in `schedule.md` for
   this kind? If not, record an `out-of-window` no-op and stop.
2. **Collect.** Gather the indicators for this kind from `IndicatorCatalog.md`:
   `light` = adoption, investment and sentiment indicators; `full` = all
   catalog sections. Use the most recent published value, and record value,
   unit, reference period, publication date and source URL. Never invent a
   value: if it isn't found, record `not found` and the sources tried.
3. **Compare.** For every indicator with an entry in `predictions.md`, locate
   the observation in the band (which anchor B1–B4 it tracks), and mark it
   *inside* or *outside* the band. Indicators without a registered prediction
   are recorded as observations only.
4. **Assess.** Short notes per jurisdiction: which archetype and band anchor
   reality currently tracks, notable legislation or sentiment changes, and
   surprises.
5. **Record.** Write `checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md` from the template
   in `PLAYBOOK.md`. Append the observations to the matching entries in
   `predictions.md`. Never edit earlier predictions or observations.
6. **No silent re-tuning.** Model changes suggested by a checkpoint become an
   intake (`intakes/intakes.md`) or a workplan task. Parameter changes go
   through `models/ParameterGrounding.md`.
7. **Complete.** Commit and push, then post a State Hub progress event with
   `event_type: assembly_checkpoint` and `detail`: `repo`, `date`, `kind`,
   `path`, `in_band`, `out_of_band`, `not_found`.