tegwick
945b28e6ab
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
197 lines
9.3 KiB
Python
197 lines
9.3 KiB
Python
"""Deterministic reality-checkpoint runner (ASSEMBLY-WP-0010).
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1. Window check against checkpoints/schedule.md (authoritative dates).
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2. Fetch the indicators of this kind from checkpoints/sources.json with
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web-fetcher (provenance: URL, retrieval time, payload hash).
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3. Write checkpoints/data/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.jsonl (raw observations) and
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checkpoints/YYYY/YYYY-MM-DD-<kind>.md (record).
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4. Optional assessment via llm-connect (LLM_CONNECT_URL). The model only sees
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fetched observations; any number in its text that is not among them makes
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the assessment rejected (no invented values).
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Usage:
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python3 checkpoints/run_checkpoint.py --kind light [--date YYYY-MM-DD] [--no-llm]
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Requires web-fetcher importable (pip install, or WEB_FETCHER_PATH=/path/to/web-fetcher).
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Exit codes: 0 ok, 3 out of window, 1 failure.
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"""
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from __future__ import annotations
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import argparse
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import json
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import os
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import re
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import sys
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import urllib.request
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from datetime import date, datetime
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from pathlib import Path
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from zoneinfo import ZoneInfo
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HERE = Path(__file__).resolve().parent
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REPO = HERE.parent
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if os.environ.get("WEB_FETCHER_PATH"):
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sys.path.insert(0, os.environ["WEB_FETCHER_PATH"])
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WINDOW_RE = re.compile(r"(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2})\s*[–-]\s*(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2})|from\s+(\d{4}-\d{2}-\d{2})")
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def berlin_today() -> date:
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return datetime.now(ZoneInfo("Europe/Berlin")).date()
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def active_phase(day: date, kind: str, schedule: str) -> str | None:
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"""Return the phase name whose window for `kind` contains `day`, else None."""
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for line in schedule.splitlines():
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cells = [c.strip().strip("`") for c in line.strip().strip("|").split("|")]
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if len(cells) < 3 or cells[1] != kind:
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continue
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m = WINDOW_RE.search(cells[2])
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if not m:
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continue
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if m.group(3):
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if day >= date.fromisoformat(m.group(3)):
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return cells[0]
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elif date.fromisoformat(m.group(1)) <= day <= date.fromisoformat(m.group(2)):
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return cells[0]
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return None
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def fetch(kind: str) -> list[dict]:
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from web_fetcher.registry import run_spec
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specs = json.loads((HERE / "sources.json").read_text())["specs"]
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out = []
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for spec in specs:
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if kind == "light" and spec.get("kind") != "light":
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continue
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for obs in run_spec(spec):
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d = obs.to_dict()
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d.update(indicator=spec.get("indicator"), jurisdiction=spec.get("jurisdiction"),
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label=spec.get("label"), source=d.get("source") or spec.get("source"))
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out.append(d)
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return out
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def model_version() -> str:
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readme = (REPO / "models" / "README.md").read_text()
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return "GADM-0.4" if "GADM-0.4" in readme else "unknown"
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def _numbers(text: str) -> set[str]:
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return {n.rstrip(".") for n in re.findall(r"\d+(?:[.,]\d+)?", text)}
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def assessment(observations: list[dict]) -> tuple[str | None, str | None]:
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url = os.environ.get("LLM_CONNECT_URL", "").rstrip("/")
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if not url:
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return None, "no LLM_CONNECT_URL; assessment skipped"
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ok = [o for o in observations if o["status"] == "ok"]
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facts = "\n".join(f"- {o['indicator']} {o['jurisdiction']} {o.get('labels') or ''}: {o['label']} = "
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f"{o['value']} {o.get('unit') or ''} (period {o['period']})" for o in ok)
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prompt = (
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"You assess AI adoption observations for a research checkpoint. Use ONLY the facts below.\n"
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"Rules: (a) every number you write must appear literally in the facts; (b) do not compute "
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"differences, ratios, growth rates or percentage points; (c) use '-' bullets, never numbered "
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"lists; (d) no forecasts; (e) indicators from different surveys (e.g. US BTOS: all employer firms, "
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"two-week window; Eurostat: enterprises with 10+ employees, annual) are not directly comparable - "
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"say so instead of ranking them against each other.\n"
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"Write two to four short bullets on what the observations say about AI adoption per "
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"jurisdiction (US, EU, DE) and which contrasts stand out (describe them in words).\n\nFacts:\n" + facts)
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body = json.dumps({"prompt": prompt, "config": {"temperature": 0.1, "max_tokens": 500}}).encode()
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try:
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req = urllib.request.Request(url + "/execute", data=body, headers={"Content-Type": "application/json"})
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with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=180) as resp:
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text = (json.loads(resp.read()).get("content") or "").strip()
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except Exception as exc: # network / server errors must not fail the checkpoint
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return None, f"assessment failed: {exc}"[:200]
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allowed = _numbers(facts)
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extra = sorted(n for n in _numbers(text) if n not in allowed and n.replace(",", ".") not in allowed)
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if extra:
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if os.environ.get("CHECKPOINT_DEBUG"):
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print("REJECTED ASSESSMENT:\n" + text, file=sys.stderr)
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return None, f"assessment rejected: numbers not in fetched data: {extra[:8]}"
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return text, None
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def registered() -> dict[tuple[str, str], list[str]]:
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"""(indicator, jurisdiction) -> prediction ids, from the headings in predictions.md."""
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out: dict[tuple[str, str], list[str]] = {}
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path = HERE / "predictions.md"
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if not path.exists():
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return out
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for m in re.finditer(r"^### (P-\d{4}-\d{3}) — (\w+) [^(\n]*\(([^)]+)\)", path.read_text(), re.M):
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for jur in (j.strip() for j in m.group(3).split(",")):
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out.setdefault((m.group(2), jur), []).append(m.group(1))
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return out
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GEO_ALIAS = {"EU27_2020": "EU27", "EU": "EU27"}
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def band_position(preds: dict, indicator: str, jur: str) -> str:
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ids = preds.get((indicator, jur)) or preds.get((indicator, GEO_ALIAS.get(jur, jur)), [])
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return f"see {', '.join(ids)} (judged at review)" if ids else "no prediction registered"
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def render(day: date, kind: str, phase: str, obs: list[dict], assess: str | None, assess_note: str | None,
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data_rel: str) -> str:
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rows, missing = [], []
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preds = registered()
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for o in obs:
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if o["status"] == "ok":
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geo = (o.get("labels") or {}).get("geo")
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jur = geo or o["jurisdiction"]
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pub = (o.get("published") or "")[:10] or "—"
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rows.append(f"| {o['indicator']} {o['label']} | {jur} | {o['value']} | {o.get('unit') or ''} | "
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f"{o['period']} | {pub} | [source]({o['url']}) | {band_position(preds, o['indicator'], jur)} |")
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else:
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missing.append(f"- {o['indicator']} {o['label']} ({o['jurisdiction']}): {o['status']}"
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f" — {o.get('note') or ''} Source: {o.get('source') or '—'}")
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lines = [f"# Checkpoint {day.isoformat()} ({kind})", "",
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f"- Model version: {model_version()}", f"- Phase: {phase}",
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"- Executor: checkpoints/run_checkpoint.py (web-fetcher; llm-connect assessment)",
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f"- Raw observations with provenance: `{data_rel}`", "",
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"## Observations", "",
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"| Indicator | Jurisdiction | Value | Unit | Reference period | Published | Source | Band position |",
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"|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|", *rows, "", "## Assessment", ""]
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lines += [assess] if assess else [f"_No automated assessment: {assess_note}_"]
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lines += ["", "## Not found / manual", "", *(missing or ["- none"]), "",
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"## Follow-ups", "",
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"- Band positions against registered predictions (`predictions.md`) are judged at review"
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if preds else "- No predictions registered yet; band positions follow once the register has entries.",
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*(["- Current regime per jurisdiction and flip candidates: `simulations/gadm02/results/matching.md`"
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" (model matching, re-run at the review of this checkpoint; not computed by this runner)"]
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if kind == "full" else []),
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""]
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return "\n".join(lines)
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def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> int:
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ap = argparse.ArgumentParser()
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ap.add_argument("--kind", choices=["light", "full"], required=True)
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ap.add_argument("--date", default=None)
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ap.add_argument("--no-llm", action="store_true")
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args = ap.parse_args(argv)
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day = date.fromisoformat(args.date) if args.date else berlin_today()
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phase = active_phase(day, args.kind, (HERE / "schedule.md").read_text())
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if phase is None:
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print(json.dumps({"status": "out-of-window", "date": day.isoformat(), "kind": args.kind}))
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return 3
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obs = fetch(args.kind)
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data_rel = f"checkpoints/data/{day.isoformat()}-{args.kind}.jsonl"
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(REPO / data_rel).parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
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(REPO / data_rel).write_text("\n".join(json.dumps(o, ensure_ascii=False, sort_keys=True) for o in obs) + "\n")
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assess, note = (None, "disabled (--no-llm)") if args.no_llm else assessment(obs)
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rec_rel = f"checkpoints/{day.year}/{day.isoformat()}-{args.kind}.md"
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(REPO / rec_rel).parent.mkdir(parents=True, exist_ok=True)
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(REPO / rec_rel).write_text(render(day, args.kind, phase, obs, assess, note, data_rel))
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summary = {"status": "ok", "date": day.isoformat(), "kind": args.kind, "phase": phase, "path": rec_rel,
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"data": data_rel, "ok": sum(o["status"] == "ok" for o in obs),
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"not_found": sum(o["status"] == "not_found" for o in obs),
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"error": sum(o["status"] == "error" for o in obs), "assessment": bool(assess)}
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print(json.dumps(summary))
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return 0
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if __name__ == "__main__":
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raise SystemExit(main())
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