assembly-economics/simulations/gadm02/calibration_targets.json

{
 "note": "Calibration targets (ASSEMBLY-WP-0013-T01). Ranges in normalized model units [0, 1] unless a 'ratio' target. 'measured' = checkpoint 0 data (checkpoints/data/2026-10-12-light.jsonl and the full-source probe of 2026-10-13); 'prior' = literature value as known up to 2025, to be verified at the next review. Observation operators and caveats: models/Calibration.md.",
 "reference_date": "2026-10-12",
 "targets": {
  "US": {
   "Ko": {
    "lo": 0.05,
    "hi": 0.2,
    "basis": "prior",
    "op": "task coverage: firm use 23.8 % (L1, measured) times usage intensity; genAI-assisted share of work hours of a few percent (Bick, Blandin, Deming 2024-25); occupations with AI on >=25 % of tasks ~1/3 (Anthropic Economic Index 2025)"
   },
   "Ko_ratio_1y": {
    "lo": 1.3,
    "hi": 1.6,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "L1 BTOS Q7 17.3 % -> 23.8 % over 0.85 y: 1.46 per year"
   },
   "Pd": {
    "lo": 0.8,
    "hi": 0.9,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "leading search engine share 85.2 % (Google); StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pi": {
    "lo": 0.56,
    "hi": 0.7,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "top-3 cloud infrastructure share 28+20+15 = 63 % worldwide, Q2 2026 (Synergy Research, 2026-07-30) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pmem": {
    "lo": 0.4,
    "hi": 0.6,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "HHI of mobile OS shares (iOS 53.5, Android 46.5 %) = 0.50; operator uncertain, range ±0.10; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Plin": {
    "lo": 0.8,
    "hi": 0.95,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "top-3 share of enterprise LLM API spend 40+27+21 = 88 % (Menlo Ventures, Dec 2025); US firms paying Anthropic 43.8 %, OpenAI 39.8 % (Ramp, Aug 2026) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pm": {
    "lo": 0.28,
    "hi": 0.45,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "top-7 firms' share of S&P 500 market capitalization about 34 % (Aug 2026, Charles Schwab); economy-wide concentration operator, upper range for sector concentration (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "B": {
    "lo": 0.57,
    "hi": 0.67,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "compensation of employees 16,350 / GDP 32,563 = 0.502 plus government social benefits 3,724 / GDP = 0.114: 0.616 (BEA via FRED COE, GDP, B087RC1Q027SBEA, 2026 Q2) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "B_trend": {
    "lo": -0.01,
    "hi": 0.0,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "F1 labour share index -6.6 % over 2017-2026: about -0.005 per year in B"
   },
   "A": {
    "lo": 0.4,
    "hi": 0.55,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "ATUS 2025 (BLS, 2026-06-25): leisure 5.2 h/day, TV 2.6 h (half); A = leisure share not taken by TV and engagement media, about 0.42-0.50 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "E": {
    "lo": 0.15,
    "hi": 0.32,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "Planetary Health Check 2025 (Stockholm Resilience Centre / PIK): 7 of 9 boundaries breached; E = share still in the safe zone = 2/9 = 0.22 (global) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Sig": {
    "lo": 0.22,
    "hi": 0.35,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "Pew Research, June 22-28 2026 (n = 3,488): 52 % more concerned than excited, 9 % more excited, 37 % both; Sigma = 0.5 + (excited - concerned)/200 = 0.285; 2021: 37 % / 18 % -> 0.405, trend about -0.024 per year"
   }
  },
  "EU": {
   "Ko": {
    "lo": 0.04,
    "hi": 0.15,
    "basis": "prior",
    "op": "as US; enterprise use 19.95 % (L2, measured, 10+ employees)"
   },
   "Ko_ratio_1y": {
    "lo": 1.35,
    "hi": 1.6,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "L2 13.48 -> 19.95 % (2024 -> 2025): 1.48"
   },
   "Pd": {
    "lo": 0.84,
    "hi": 0.94,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "leading search share, mean of DE 87.8, FR 88.1, IT 87.3, ES 93.8 % = 89.3 %; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pi": {
    "lo": 0.56,
    "hi": 0.76,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "top-3 cloud infrastructure share 28+20+15 = 63 % worldwide, Q2 2026 (Synergy Research, 2026-07-30); EU market not separated, upper range widened for the low share of EU providers (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pmem": {
    "lo": 0.47,
    "hi": 0.67,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "mobile OS HHI, mean of DE 0.60, FR 0.55, IT 0.54, ES 0.61 = 0.57; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Plin": {
    "lo": 0.8,
    "hi": 0.95,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "top-3 share of enterprise LLM API spend 40+27+21 = 88 % (Menlo Ventures, Dec 2025); US firms paying Anthropic 43.8 %, OpenAI 39.8 % (Ramp, Aug 2026); same foreign lineages (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "B": {
    "lo": 0.6,
    "hi": 0.69,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "compensation D1 / GDP 0.479 (Eurostat nama_10_gdp 2025) plus social benefits D62 16.5 % of GDP (gov_10a_main 2025): 0.644 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "A": {
    "lo": 0.45,
    "hi": 0.65,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "DE time-use survey 2022 as EU proxy (HETUS not current); range widened (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "E": {
    "lo": 0.15,
    "hi": 0.32,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "Planetary Health Check 2025 (Stockholm Resilience Centre / PIK): 7 of 9 boundaries breached; E = share still in the safe zone = 2/9 = 0.22 (global) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Sig": {
    "lo": 0.45,
    "hi": 0.62,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "Special Eurobarometer 554/557 (fieldwork 2024): 55 % expect AI to affect daily life positively, 35 % negatively; Sigma = 0.5 + (pos - neg)/200 = 0.60; different question from Pew, so the range is wide and skewed down (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pm": {
    "lo": 0.17,
    "hi": 0.3,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "top-10 constituents' share of the STOXX Europe 600, about 21 % (STOXX components list, undated; secondary search 2026-10-14); same operator family as the US (top-7 share of the S&P 500, 34 %) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   }
  },
  "DE": {
   "Ko": {
    "lo": 0.05,
    "hi": 0.18,
    "basis": "prior",
    "op": "enterprise use 25.97 % (L2, measured)"
   },
   "Ko_ratio_1y": {
    "lo": 1.2,
    "hi": 1.45,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "L2 19.75 -> 25.97 % (2024 -> 2025): 1.31"
   },
   "Pd": {
    "lo": 0.83,
    "hi": 0.93,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "leading search share 87.8 %; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pmem": {
    "lo": 0.5,
    "hi": 0.7,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "mobile OS HHI (Android 72.3, iOS 27.7 %) = 0.60; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "B": {
    "lo": 0.66,
    "hi": 0.76,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "D1 / GDP 0.544 plus D62 16.8 %: 0.712 (Eurostat 2025) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "A": {
    "lo": 0.48,
    "hi": 0.65,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "Destatis time-use survey 2022: leisure 6.1 h/day, TV and streaming 2.1 h, all media about 3 h; A = 0.51-0.65 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   }
  },
  "AR": {
   "Ko": {
    "lo": 0.05,
    "hi": 0.17,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "20.4 % of firms apply AI in daily operations (Google / IDB study, Aug 2026); scaled like the US level fit (23.8 % -> 0.12) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pd": {
    "lo": 0.89,
    "hi": 0.98,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "leading search share 93.8 %; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Plin": {
    "lo": 0.8,
    "hi": 0.95,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "top-3 share of enterprise LLM API spend 40+27+21 = 88 % (Menlo Ventures, Dec 2025); US firms paying Anthropic 43.8 %, OpenAI 39.8 % (Ramp, Aug 2026); same foreign lineages (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "B": {
    "lo": 0.49,
    "hi": 0.61,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "wage share 45.5 % of GDP 2025 (INDEC income accounts, via press) plus social transfers not yet measured (assumed 4-15 % of GDP) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Sig": {
    "lo": 0.36,
    "hi": 0.5,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "La Nacion Data (June 2026, via secondary report): 30.7 % optimistic, 44.2 % sceptical; Sigma = 0.43; secondary source, range +-0.07 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pmem": {
    "lo": 0.68,
    "hi": 0.88,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "mobile OS HHI (Android 87.3, iOS 12.7 %) = 0.78; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Ko_ratio_1y": {
    "lo": 1.25,
    "hi": 1.65,
    "basis": "prior",
    "op": "no AR series yet; assumed within the US/EU/DE observed range (1.31-1.48)"
   },
   "E": {
    "lo": 0.15,
    "hi": 0.32,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "Planetary Health Check 2025 (Stockholm Resilience Centre / PIK): 7 of 9 boundaries breached; E = share still in the safe zone = 2/9 = 0.22 (global) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   }
  },
  "CN": {
   "Ko": {
    "lo": 0.06,
    "hi": 0.2,
    "basis": "prior",
    "op": "no all-firm share; 74.6 % of China's Fortune 500 deploy or use generative AI (Omdia 2025H1), 42 % of the population are generative-AI users (CNIC, end of 2025); range like the US"
   },
   "Ko_ratio_1y": {
    "lo": 1.3,
    "hi": 1.8,
    "basis": "prior",
    "op": "no firm series; user numbers roughly doubled within a year (CNIC); range above the US/EU observed growth"
   },
   "Pd": {
    "lo": 0.4,
    "hi": 0.65,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "leading search share Baidu 46.9 % (StatCounter Sept 2026); StatCounter undercounts China's domestic market (Bing 21.6 %, Yandex 15 % suggest foreign-browser bias), so the range is wide (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pmem": {
    "lo": 0.46,
    "hi": 0.66,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "mobile OS HHI (Android 67.5 %, iOS 31.9 %) = 0.56 (StatCounter Sept 2026) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "Pi": {
    "lo": 0.55,
    "hi": 0.8,
    "basis": "prior",
    "op": "domestic cloud market led by Alibaba, Huawei, Tencent; top-3 share prior"
   },
   "Plin": {
    "lo": 0.5,
    "hi": 0.85,
    "basis": "prior",
    "op": "domestic lineages (DeepSeek, Qwen, others); concentration prior"
   },
   "Sig": {
    "lo": 0.7,
    "hi": 0.85,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "Ipsos (via Stanford AI Index 2025): 83 % of Chinese respondents see more benefits than drawbacks (US 39 %); Sigma = 0.5 + (benefit - drawback)/200 = 0.83, range widened downward for the different question (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   },
   "E": {
    "lo": 0.15,
    "hi": 0.32,
    "basis": "measured",
    "op": "Planetary Health Check 2025 (Stockholm Resilience Centre / PIK): 7 of 9 boundaries breached; E = share still in the safe zone = 2/9 = 0.22 (global) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
   }
  }
 }
}