# Risk Register

> Status: draft v0.1 — 2026-07-16. Known failure modes, mitigations, and
> escalation paths. Reviewed in the daily brief; updated whenever a risk
> changes.

## Risk entry template

```yaml
id: RISK-NNN
title: ""
class: legal | financial | security | product | attention | ecosystem
likelihood: low | medium | high
impact: low | medium | high
status: open | mitigating | accepted | closed
mitigation: ""
escalation: ""
```

## Open risks

```yaml
id: RISK-001
title: "Compliance state of dormant GmbH (filings, tax, registry)"
class: legal
likelihood: low
impact: high
status: mitigating
mitigation: "Audit v0 (2026-07-16): filings current through JA 2024; registry details still unverified (OH-2026-004). Residual gap tracked as RISK-006."
escalation: "Hard legal deadline discovered → allowed escalation even when founder unavailable"
```

```yaml
id: RISK-002
title: "IP ownership between Bernd (private) and GmbH unclarified"
class: legal
likelihood: high
impact: high
status: open
mitigation: "Inventory during audit; clarify before any ecosystem product is sold"
escalation: "Blocks S4 (first external offer) if unresolved"
```

```yaml
id: RISK-003
title: "Founder attention is the single point of failure"
class: attention
likelihood: high
impact: high
status: mitigating
mitigation: "AutonomyPolicy lanes; decision packages; unattended-progress design"
escalation: "Decision queue older than 14 days → prune and re-prioritize"
```

```yaml
id: RISK-004
title: "Too many parallel product ideas dilute focus (idea cloud > portfolio)"
class: product
likelihood: high
impact: medium
status: open
mitigation: "Offer Catalog levels; one flagship offer first; success ladder discipline"
escalation: "Founder decision on focus if >3 offers active simultaneously"
```

```yaml
id: RISK-005
title: "Agentic stack becomes busywork generator instead of progress engine"
class: product
likelihood: medium
impact: medium
status: open
mitigation: "Every loop must feed a queue, a decision, or evidence; brutalist founder interface; token budgets"
escalation: "Weekly review shows activity without milestone movement"
```

```yaml
id: RISK-006
title: "No active Steuerberater mandate — JA 2025 and ongoing filings uncovered"
class: legal
likelihood: high
impact: high
status: mitigating
mitigation: "Inquiry to Bohle-Horsmann sent 2026-07-06 (OH-2026-001); fallback: re-engage Weglarzy/FSW or find alternative. DUO transition prepared (OH-2026-002)."
escalation: "No mandate secured by end of September 2026 → founder decision on fallback"
```

```yaml
id: RISK-007
title: "DUO receipt backlog and license dependency on former StB"
class: financial
likelihood: medium
impact: medium
status: open
mitigation: "Backlog catch-up + transition plan (OH-2026-002); Weglarzy agreed to accompany DUO transfer"
escalation: "Loss of DUO access before transfer → immediate export of Belegablage"
```