108 lines
4.8 KiB
Markdown
108 lines
4.8 KiB
Markdown
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# CB-EV-0031 — a seat that does not regulate
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CB-WP-0039. Tier M (adds a policy to the panel every future measurement is
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reported against; chaos d8 = 2 → no override). **Declaration 11 of chaos
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window 3.** Closed 2026-08-08.
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> Like [CB-EV-0030](CB-EV-0030-h1-measured.md), **this has not had the
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> tier-L adversarial review that pass owes, and none of it may reach
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> `ground-game` until that review has run.**
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**Delivered:** the `reactive` policy, and the measurement CB-EV-0030 §4
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named as the one it had not run.
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---
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## 1. It changes CB-EV-0030's verdict
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CB-EV-0030 concluded H1's DARVO arm rate was still 0. **That was true of
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the panel, and the panel was greedy-family throughout.**
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`GreedyPolicy` ranks `Action::Ground if gated => 100`: the instant the
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stress gate bites it grounds. Stress plateaus at 3, and the arm at 5 is
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unreachable **by construction**. So "H1 does nothing" was really "H1 does
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nothing *to a seat that already manages its Stress*" — and H1 was written
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for the seat that does not.
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`reactive` is greedy with **one preference changed**: GROUND demoted below
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ATTACK. SHARED GROUND, 200 games per cell, all 200 ran in every cell:
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| | | greedy | | | | reactive | | |
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|---|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|---:|
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| **seats** | won | atk | darvo | peak | won | atk | darvo | peak |
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| 2p | 68 | 0 | 0 | 4 | **0** | 1200 | **400** | **5** |
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| 3p | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | **0** | 1800 | **400** | **5** |
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| 4p | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | **0** | 2400 | **400** | **5** |
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| 6p | 0 | 0 | 0 | 4 | **0** | 3600 | **400** | **5** |
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**H1's mechanism works.** Criterion 1 (DARVO arm rate non-trivial) and
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criterion 2 (ATTACK selection rises for some subpopulation) are **met** —
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for the subpopulation H1 was aimed at. CB-EV-0030 reported both as
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failures, and that report was about greedy.
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**Criterion 3 still fails, and now worse.** Reactive wins **nothing**, at
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any seat count, under H1.
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## 2. The baseline finding, which is larger than H1
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Look at the baseline half of the same run. Greedy and reactive are
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**identical** — 132/165/190/200, zero attacks, zero DARVO, in all four
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bands.
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**Peak Stress across 3,200 baseline games was 1.** Starting Stress is 2,
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so no seat's Stress was ever *set* above 1: it only ever went down.
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> **The baseline's entire Stress economy is unreachable under this panel.**
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> The gate at 4, the DARVO arm at 5, the Freedom token that buys past the
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> gate — none of it can engage, and a policy built to be reckless with
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> Stress plays identically to one built to husband it.
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That is a deeper account of F17 than F17 has. ATTACK is not merely
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unrewarding; **the pressure it is supposed to answer never exists.** H1 is
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an attempt to fix exactly this, and it is aimed at the right thing.
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## 3. What H1-B actually does, which is not what it was for
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`darvo` is **exactly 400 in every cell** while `atk` scales cleanly with
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seats (1200 / 1800 / 2400 / 3600 = 3 per seat per game). A constant across
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seat counts is an artifact smell, so it was measured rather than reported.
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Six-player final Stress, every seed: **`[5, 5, 4, 4, 4, 4]`**. Exactly two
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seats arm, whatever the table size.
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**The self-soothe is doing it.** An attacker at Stress ≥ 4 takes −1 for a
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landed Attack, which holds it at 4 — *below the arm* — while its targets
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take +1 or +2 and climb to 5. **H1-B suppresses DARVO in the seat that
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attacks and concentrates it in the seat attacked.**
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The hypothesis wanted ATTACK to be rational at high Stress. It is. The
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side effect is that the aggressor is the one seat protected from arming.
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**Stated as a limitation, not a finding about H1:** `reactive` picks its
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Attack target by first-legal, not by any judgement, so the *concentration*
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on two seats is partly an artifact of crude targeting. The direction —
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attackers held at 4, targets pushed to 5 — follows from H1-B's arithmetic
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and does not depend on the targeting. **The number 2 does.**
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## 4. What this does not say
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- **`reactive` is not a good player and is not meant to be.** It wins
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nothing under H1 and exactly what greedy wins under baseline. It is an
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instrument for reaching the Stress economy, not a claim about how people
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play.
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- **Two policies is still not a panel.** RetrospectiveAnalysis §4.1 asks
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for greedy, random and first-legal at minimum; this pass added a fourth
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axis to two of them, in one mode.
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- **SHARED GROUND only.** CB-EV-0030 covered three modes; this covers one.
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- **No felt-play**, and this is the kind of claim — about pressure, and
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when a player feels cornered — that a human table answers and 3,200
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simulated games do not.
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## 5. Open
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- **The baseline's Stress economy being unreachable (§2) deserves its own
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finding**, and is not raised here because it wants the plural panel of
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§4 first. It is the more consequential of the two results in this file.
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- **Whether H1-B's suppression is intended** is ground-game's question,
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and it is the sharpest thing this pass can hand them.
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