ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did
not
Tier M (changes how the loop constrains its own operation), declared at
d8 because the rate for window 3 is what this document decides and
declaring at a rate it invents would be circular. chaos d8 = 7, no
override.
I CLAIMED WINDOW 2 PRODUCED ZERO OVERRIDES, FIVE TIMES, AND IT IS FALSE.
Declaration 3 (CB-WP-0020) rolled d8 = 8, overrode, drew S against a
structural S, and changed nothing -- and CB-WP-0020 recorded it correctly
at the time, in those words: "the first override at d8... It changed
nothing... One."
Counting the workplans takes one command and I never ran it. CB-EV-0024
asserted "zero" without checking; CB-EV-0025, 0026, 0027 and CB-WP-0029
each cited the one before. A claim propagated five times by citation
rather than by measurement, in files whose subject was that exact failure.
facts-check catches a copied number that disagrees with its source;
nothing catches a number with NO source, asserted once and repeated.
Registered F23, and all four evidence files carry an in-place correction
rather than a silent edit (ADR-0012 D5).
THE ACTUAL VERDICT: THE RATE IS WORKING. Eleven rolls at d8 -- declaration
1 opened the window at the old d4 -- against 1.375 eights expected, 1
observed. Not a shortage of evidence; the design.
BUT THE RETIREMENT CONDITION GENUINELY CANNOT FIRE, and that took
computing to see. "An override changes nothing twice running" needs a
consecutive pair at P=1/3 each, so ~12 overrides expected, at ~1.4 per
window: ~9 windows, roughly 100 declarations. A gate that cannot cash out
on any realistic horizon is decoration, which ADR-0006 D3 forbids.
Restated to be evaluated PER WINDOW: retire if a full window's overrides
all change nothing, met in two consecutive windows. A window with no
overrides is inconclusive and advances nothing. ~24 declarations rather
than ~100. Window 2 counts as the first; window 3 opens at d8 and decides.
Recorded and deliberately not acted on: declarations 5-9 rolled six five
times running, ~1 in 370 for some run of five in eleven rolls. shuf tested
over 200 rapid successive calls looks uniform, longest run three. Found
post hoc, which is how coincidences become findings, so it is logged for a
future window to check rather than treated as evidence.
InnerLoop.md then crossed the loadability limit, and so did
InnerLoopReference.md. The window log moved to specs/ChaosRollHistory.md:
it grows by one entry per window, and a log inside a reference eventually
crowds out the reference.
make all: exit 0.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00
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# Chaos roll — window records
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One entry per chaos window. Split out of `InnerLoopReference.md` when that
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file crossed the loadability limit: this is a **log that grows**, and a log
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inside a reference eventually crowds out the reference.
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The rule itself lives in [`InnerLoop.md`](InnerLoop.md) §Loop tiers; the
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current window's terms are there. This is the history the verdicts rest on.
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**Window 1** (d4, closed 2026-08-02): 12 declarations, **2 overrides**, one
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each way, and **both changed the outcome**. The mechanism was kept and the
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rate dropped d4 → d8 (CB-EV-0015 §5, CB-EV-0016 §4).
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**Window 2** (d8, 2026-08-03 → 2026-08-07): 12 declarations, of which
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**11 rolled at d8** — declaration 1 (CB-WP-0018) opened the window and
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rolled at the old d4. Expected 8s: **1.375**. Observed: **1**.
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| decl | pass | roll | effect |
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|---:|---|---|---|
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| 1 | CB-WP-0018 | d4 = 3 | opened the window at the old rate |
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| 2 | CB-WP-0019 | d8 = 5 | — |
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| **3** | **CB-WP-0020** | **d8 = 8** | **override — drew S over a structural S: changed nothing** |
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| 4 | CB-WP-0021 | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 5–9 | CB-WP-0022…0026 | d8 = 6 ×5 | — |
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| 10 | CB-WP-0027 | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 11 | CB-WP-0028 | d8 = 1 | — |
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| 12 | CB-WP-0029 | d8 = 4 | — |
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**Verdict (ADR-0017): the rate is behaving as designed.** One override
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against 1.375 expected is not a shortage of evidence.
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**Why the retirement condition changed.** *"An override changes nothing
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twice running"* requires a consecutive pair, each with P = 1/3, so ~12
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overrides are expected before one occurs — at ~1.4 overrides per window,
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**~9 windows or roughly 100 declarations**. A gate that cannot cash out on
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any realistic horizon is decoration (ADR-0006 D3). It is now evaluated
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**per window**, needing two consecutive qualifying windows: ~24
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declarations rather than ~100.
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**Four evidence files claimed window 2 produced zero overrides.** They were
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wrong, and each cited the one before rather than counting. See F23 —
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the failure is a claim with no source, asserted once and repeated, which
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no gate here detects.
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**A post-hoc observation, deliberately not acted on.** Declarations 5–9
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rolled six five times running (~1 in 370 for some run of five in eleven
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rolls). `shuf` was tested over 200 rapid successive calls and looks
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uniform, longest run three. Recorded so a future window can check whether
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it recurs; not evidence of anything on its own.
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CB-WP-0038: variant selection, H1 implemented, and H1 measured
ground-game packages hypotheses as selectable rules variants — a catalog,
a rules_delta.yaml, and prose — and their note is explicit that CSV text
alone is not executable here. So the kernel gains a Variant in game state:
in the state, therefore in the hash, therefore in the recording, because a
scenario replayed under a different variant would diverge silently.
Baseline is bit-for-bit what it was, asserted across seat counts and
seeds. A variant system that perturbs the baseline invalidates every
measurement this repo has.
H1-A and H1-B implemented from rules_delta.yaml and mutation-proven on
their own defects: "unclaimed" misread as face-up-and-unsolved, and the
attacker's Stress read after the attack's effects. Their `unchanged:` list
is asserted rather than trusted — that list is their claim about their own
experiment.
Measured, and three of their four criteria fail. DARVO arm rate is still
0 under greedy; ATTACK selection does not rise and falls for the rank-75
policy; group success collapses from 165/190/200 to 0 at 3/4/6 seats.
The mechanism is not the assumed one: greedy answers the pressure by
regulating, Stress plateaus at 3, so it never reaches the gate at 4 or the
arm at 5 — H1-A acts as a solve-rate tax and H1-B is unreachable under
competent play.
A harness defect was caught before the claim: sweep discarded refused
games silently and never reported its count, so "nobody won" and "nothing
played" printed identically. Reporting H1 as unwinnable on that basis
would have been the ADR-0018 family aimed at another repo's design. All
200 games ran in every cell; the zeros are real.
Chaos d8 = 8 — the window's first override, redrew L against a structural
L, so it changed nothing. Window 3 recorded in ChaosRollHistory.
NOT REVIEWED: tier L owes a separate-agent adversarial review, and no H1
result may reach ground-game until it has run.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-08 00:50:08 +02:00
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---
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## Window 3 — opened 2026-08-07 at d8, running to 12 declarations
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| # | pass | roll | override |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| 1 | CB-WP-0030 | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 2 | CB-WP-0031 | d8 = 2 | — |
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| 3 | CB-WP-0032 | d8 = 6 | — |
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| 4 | CB-WP-0033 | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 5 | CB-WP-0034 | d8 = 4 | — |
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| 6 | CB-WP-0035 | d8 = 4 | — |
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| 7 | CB-WP-0036 (first declaration) | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 8 | CB-WP-0036 (re-declared L→M) | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 9 | CB-WP-0037 | d8 = 1 | — |
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| 10 | CB-WP-0038 | **d8 = 8** | **yes — redraw L, structural was L, so it changed nothing** |
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CB-WP-0039: a seat that does not regulate — and it changes H1's verdict
CB-EV-0030 concluded H1's DARVO arm rate was still 0. That was true of the
panel, and the panel was greedy-family throughout. GreedyPolicy ranks
`Ground if gated => 100`, so it grounds the instant the stress gate bites,
Stress plateaus at 3, and the arm at 5 is unreachable by construction. "H1
does nothing" was really "H1 does nothing to a seat that already manages
its Stress" — and H1 was written for the seat that does not.
`reactive` is greedy with exactly one preference changed: GROUND demoted
below ATTACK. Under it, H1's criteria 1 and 2 are MET — DARVO arms 400
times per cell, ATTACK is chosen 3 times per seat per game. Criterion 3
fails harder: reactive wins nothing at any seat count.
The larger finding is about the baseline. Greedy and reactive play
IDENTICALLY under baseline, and peak Stress across 3,200 baseline games
was 1 — against a starting value of 2. The gate at 4, the DARVO arm at 5
and the Freedom token are all unreachable, and a policy built to be
reckless with Stress is indistinguishable from one built to husband it.
That is a deeper account of F17 than F17 has. Not raised as a finding yet:
it wants the plural panel first.
A constant was investigated rather than reported: darvo was exactly 400 in
every cell while atk scaled with seats. Six-player final Stress is
[5,5,4,4,4,4] every seed — H1-B holds the attacker at 4, below the arm,
and pushes its targets to 5. The self-soothe suppresses DARVO in the
aggressor and concentrates it in the attacked. The direction follows from
H1-B's arithmetic; the number 2 is partly an artifact of reactive's
first-legal targeting, and is labelled as such.
Still unreviewed: tier L review outstanding on CB-WP-0038, and nothing
here reaches ground-game until it runs.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-08 01:08:40 +02:00
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| 11 | CB-WP-0039 | d8 = 2 | — |
|
CB-WP-0040: name the stratum before naming the defect
The maintainer could not tell whether "error", "failure", "finding" or
"correction" referred to the game's design, our formalisation of it, the
code, the measuring apparatus, or the sentences we wrote. Three review
rounds produced twenty-odd defect statements spanning five systems, all
called errors. The confusion was ours.
specs/Taxonomy.md, grounded in named canon rather than invented here: six
strata from Sargent's problem entity / conceptual model / computerized
model, extended where a simulation-V&V frame stops — we also own an
instrument and an account. The two relations are what was missing:
GAME<->MODEL is validation, MODEL<->ENGINE is verification, and nearly
every argument about "our bug or their gap" was that distinction going
unnamed.
Fault/error/failure from Avizienis et al., applied within a stratum, plus
the rule that explains the review history: a failure in one stratum is a
fault in the next. And it finally defines the family ADR-0018 could only
point at — a wrong-subject error is an ACCOUNT failure with no INSTRUMENT
fault, which is why tests never catch them.
MDA supplies the game-facing layers and one hard limit: our panels measure
dynamics, our trial logs sample aesthetics, and a win rate does not answer
"is it fun".
specs/Positioning.md names the field fairly — Ludii is the closest
relative and the right benchmark — and the four differentiators, each
already built rather than aspired to. Clay-borg is a design-evidence
instrument; anyone can produce the number. Three tracks named and none
started: a second game, game theory as the lens on dynamics, and
assimilated knowledge about why games work.
Track A is the falsifier for the whole positioning: every abstraction here
has exactly one instance, which by our own rule may mean invented rather
than observed.
Chaos window 3 closes at 12 declarations with one override that changed
nothing. Its verdict is due and is deliberately not written here.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-08 11:41:16 +02:00
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| 12 | CB-WP-0040 | d8 = 5 | — |
|
CB-WP-0038: variant selection, H1 implemented, and H1 measured
ground-game packages hypotheses as selectable rules variants — a catalog,
a rules_delta.yaml, and prose — and their note is explicit that CSV text
alone is not executable here. So the kernel gains a Variant in game state:
in the state, therefore in the hash, therefore in the recording, because a
scenario replayed under a different variant would diverge silently.
Baseline is bit-for-bit what it was, asserted across seat counts and
seeds. A variant system that perturbs the baseline invalidates every
measurement this repo has.
H1-A and H1-B implemented from rules_delta.yaml and mutation-proven on
their own defects: "unclaimed" misread as face-up-and-unsolved, and the
attacker's Stress read after the attack's effects. Their `unchanged:` list
is asserted rather than trusted — that list is their claim about their own
experiment.
Measured, and three of their four criteria fail. DARVO arm rate is still
0 under greedy; ATTACK selection does not rise and falls for the rank-75
policy; group success collapses from 165/190/200 to 0 at 3/4/6 seats.
The mechanism is not the assumed one: greedy answers the pressure by
regulating, Stress plateaus at 3, so it never reaches the gate at 4 or the
arm at 5 — H1-A acts as a solve-rate tax and H1-B is unreachable under
competent play.
A harness defect was caught before the claim: sweep discarded refused
games silently and never reported its count, so "nobody won" and "nothing
played" printed identically. Reporting H1 as unwinnable on that basis
would have been the ADR-0018 family aimed at another repo's design. All
200 games ran in every cell; the zeros are real.
Chaos d8 = 8 — the window's first override, redrew L against a structural
L, so it changed nothing. Window 3 recorded in ChaosRollHistory.
NOT REVIEWED: tier L owes a separate-agent adversarial review, and no H1
result may reach ground-game until it has run.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-08 00:50:08 +02:00
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**The window's first 8, at declaration 10.** Expectation over ten rolls at
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d8 is 1.25; one is exactly on rate.
|
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**The override changed nothing**, which is the observation ADR-0017 D2's
|
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retirement condition is built from — it needs *a full window whose
|
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|
overrides all change nothing*, in two consecutive windows. This window now
|
CB-WP-0040: name the stratum before naming the defect
The maintainer could not tell whether "error", "failure", "finding" or
"correction" referred to the game's design, our formalisation of it, the
code, the measuring apparatus, or the sentences we wrote. Three review
rounds produced twenty-odd defect statements spanning five systems, all
called errors. The confusion was ours.
specs/Taxonomy.md, grounded in named canon rather than invented here: six
strata from Sargent's problem entity / conceptual model / computerized
model, extended where a simulation-V&V frame stops — we also own an
instrument and an account. The two relations are what was missing:
GAME<->MODEL is validation, MODEL<->ENGINE is verification, and nearly
every argument about "our bug or their gap" was that distinction going
unnamed.
Fault/error/failure from Avizienis et al., applied within a stratum, plus
the rule that explains the review history: a failure in one stratum is a
fault in the next. And it finally defines the family ADR-0018 could only
point at — a wrong-subject error is an ACCOUNT failure with no INSTRUMENT
fault, which is why tests never catch them.
MDA supplies the game-facing layers and one hard limit: our panels measure
dynamics, our trial logs sample aesthetics, and a win rate does not answer
"is it fun".
specs/Positioning.md names the field fairly — Ludii is the closest
relative and the right benchmark — and the four differentiators, each
already built rather than aspired to. Clay-borg is a design-evidence
instrument; anyone can produce the number. Three tracks named and none
started: a second game, game theory as the lens on dynamics, and
assimilated knowledge about why games work.
Track A is the falsifier for the whole positioning: every abstraction here
has exactly one instance, which by our own rule may mean invented rather
than observed.
Chaos window 3 closes at 12 declarations with one override that changed
nothing. Its verdict is due and is deliberately not written here.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-08 11:41:16 +02:00
|
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had one qualifying override, and it changed nothing.
|
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**Window 3 is closed at 12 declarations. Its verdict is due and is not
|
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|
written here** — recording it is a change to how the loop constrains its
|
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|
own operation, which is a tier-M trigger in its own right, and window 2's
|
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verdict was delayed the same way. **One override in twelve, changing
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nothing**, is the second consecutive window to produce no override that
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changed an outcome; ADR-0017 D2's retirement condition asks for exactly
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|
that in two consecutive windows and should now be evaluated rather than
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restated.
|
CB-WP-0038: variant selection, H1 implemented, and H1 measured
ground-game packages hypotheses as selectable rules variants — a catalog,
a rules_delta.yaml, and prose — and their note is explicit that CSV text
alone is not executable here. So the kernel gains a Variant in game state:
in the state, therefore in the hash, therefore in the recording, because a
scenario replayed under a different variant would diverge silently.
Baseline is bit-for-bit what it was, asserted across seat counts and
seeds. A variant system that perturbs the baseline invalidates every
measurement this repo has.
H1-A and H1-B implemented from rules_delta.yaml and mutation-proven on
their own defects: "unclaimed" misread as face-up-and-unsolved, and the
attacker's Stress read after the attack's effects. Their `unchanged:` list
is asserted rather than trusted — that list is their claim about their own
experiment.
Measured, and three of their four criteria fail. DARVO arm rate is still
0 under greedy; ATTACK selection does not rise and falls for the rank-75
policy; group success collapses from 165/190/200 to 0 at 3/4/6 seats.
The mechanism is not the assumed one: greedy answers the pressure by
regulating, Stress plateaus at 3, so it never reaches the gate at 4 or the
arm at 5 — H1-A acts as a solve-rate tax and H1-B is unreachable under
competent play.
A harness defect was caught before the claim: sweep discarded refused
games silently and never reported its count, so "nobody won" and "nothing
played" printed identically. Reporting H1 as unwinnable on that basis
would have been the ADR-0018 family aimed at another repo's design. All
200 games ran in every cell; the zeros are real.
Chaos d8 = 8 — the window's first override, redrew L against a structural
L, so it changed nothing. Window 3 recorded in ChaosRollHistory.
NOT REVIEWED: tier L owes a separate-agent adversarial review, and no H1
result may reach ground-game until it has run.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-08 00:50:08 +02:00
|
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**Declaration 8 is a re-declaration of the same workplan**, counted
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separately because it was a materially different pass: CB-WP-0036 was
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re-scoped from L to M after the maintainer moved the animation work out of
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the repo, and a changed declaration is a new declaration or the roll is
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not binding on what was actually built.
|
CB-WP-0041 done: ADR-0020 refuses the port, and T02 is why
T02 — all chance derives from one root seed. Three chance points, all
reading it: the setup deck shuffle, the setup Lead draw, and the reshuffle
permutation. The Problems deal is not chance at all. So in extensive-form
terms the tree has a single chance node at the root.
That test was wrong first, and the mutation caught it. It compared state
hashes — and GroundState carries `seed` as a field, so "different seeds
differ" was true by construction. Mutating the shuffle away left it green.
It now compares the dealt configuration, and the same mutation fails it: a
wrong-subject error inside the control written for T02.
The reshuffle is a pure function of (seed, round) because K5 requires
deterministic replay, where a real table reshuffles independently. That is
a modelling restriction, not a defect, and it is now pinned.
T03 — commit/reveal checked in both directions: before Reveal each seat
sees its own selection and no other; after Reveal the information sets
merge, because an encoding that hides forever is not commit/reveal either.
T04 — ADR-0020 refuses the EFG port, and the blocker is T02 rather than
T01, which inverts what the workplan expected. Perfect recall looked like
the risk and is a constraint with a known answer: key on observation
histories. Making chance explicit is the expensive one — the reshuffle
would become a real chance node and break the K5 purity that every
recording, replay bundle and trial-note hash depends on. A port would
trade the property this project is built on for one it has never needed.
Track B's first move is therefore a question, not a build: take "is
exploitability meaningful for a co-operative game with a shared threshold"
to OpenSpiel on a toy model, where answering it costs nothing. D4 states
what being wrong looks like — OpenSpiel settling on a toy what three
rounds of policy sweeps could not — and makes watching for it the next
action.
Taxonomy §4.1 records the EFG correspondence with the test that checks
each row, so a later pass starts from a specification rather than a memory.
Chaos window 4 at three declarations. Window 3's verdict is now two
windows behind and should be evaluated rather than restated.
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-08 15:35:03 +02:00
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|
---
|
|
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|
|
## Window 4 — opened 2026-08-08 at d8
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| # | pass | roll | override |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|---|---|---|---|
|
|
|
|
|
|
| 1 | CB-WP-0041 | d8 = 5 | — |
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| 2 | CB-WP-0042 | d8 = 4 | — |
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| 3 | ADR-0020 | d8 = 7 | — |
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**Window 3's verdict remains owed** and is now two windows behind. One
|
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override in twelve, changing nothing, is the second consecutive window
|
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|
meeting ADR-0017 D2's retirement condition — *"a full window's overrides
|
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|
|
all change nothing"* — and the condition asks for two consecutive such
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|
windows. **It should be evaluated, not restated again.**
|