50 lines
2.4 KiB
Markdown
50 lines
2.4 KiB
Markdown
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# Chaos roll — window records
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One entry per chaos window. Split out of `InnerLoopReference.md` when that
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file crossed the loadability limit: this is a **log that grows**, and a log
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inside a reference eventually crowds out the reference.
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The rule itself lives in [`InnerLoop.md`](InnerLoop.md) §Loop tiers; the
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current window's terms are there. This is the history the verdicts rest on.
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**Window 1** (d4, closed 2026-08-02): 12 declarations, **2 overrides**, one
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each way, and **both changed the outcome**. The mechanism was kept and the
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rate dropped d4 → d8 (CB-EV-0015 §5, CB-EV-0016 §4).
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**Window 2** (d8, 2026-08-03 → 2026-08-07): 12 declarations, of which
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**11 rolled at d8** — declaration 1 (CB-WP-0018) opened the window and
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rolled at the old d4. Expected 8s: **1.375**. Observed: **1**.
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| decl | pass | roll | effect |
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|---:|---|---|---|
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| 1 | CB-WP-0018 | d4 = 3 | opened the window at the old rate |
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| 2 | CB-WP-0019 | d8 = 5 | — |
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| **3** | **CB-WP-0020** | **d8 = 8** | **override — drew S over a structural S: changed nothing** |
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| 4 | CB-WP-0021 | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 5–9 | CB-WP-0022…0026 | d8 = 6 ×5 | — |
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| 10 | CB-WP-0027 | d8 = 7 | — |
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| 11 | CB-WP-0028 | d8 = 1 | — |
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| 12 | CB-WP-0029 | d8 = 4 | — |
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**Verdict (ADR-0017): the rate is behaving as designed.** One override
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against 1.375 expected is not a shortage of evidence.
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**Why the retirement condition changed.** *"An override changes nothing
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twice running"* requires a consecutive pair, each with P = 1/3, so ~12
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overrides are expected before one occurs — at ~1.4 overrides per window,
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**~9 windows or roughly 100 declarations**. A gate that cannot cash out on
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any realistic horizon is decoration (ADR-0006 D3). It is now evaluated
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**per window**, needing two consecutive qualifying windows: ~24
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declarations rather than ~100.
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**Four evidence files claimed window 2 produced zero overrides.** They were
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wrong, and each cited the one before rather than counting. See F23 —
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the failure is a claim with no source, asserted once and repeated, which
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no gate here detects.
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**A post-hoc observation, deliberately not acted on.** Declarations 5–9
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rolled six five times running (~1 in 370 for some run of five in eleven
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rolls). `shuf` was tested over 200 rapid successive calls and looks
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uniform, longest run three. Recorded so a future window can check whether
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it recurs; not evidence of anything on its own.
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