From 0d2ab2286d176b1c602cd15bf3e984898d9a6368 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001 From: tegwick Date: Sun, 2 Aug 2026 02:48:51 +0200 Subject: [PATCH] =?UTF-8?q?CB-WP-0011-T03:=20evidence=20=E2=80=94=20the=20?= =?UTF-8?q?chaos=20roll=20fired,=20and=20it=20was=20right?= MIME-Version: 1.0 Content-Type: text/plain; charset=UTF-8 Content-Transfer-Encoding: 8bit CB-EV-0009. Tier S did not produce a worse outcome than tier L would have. The roll deleted a survey that would have opened on 2D toolkit selection; the decomposition it forced instead found that the existing text renderer was showing 24 of 41 view fields. The structural trigger fires on a property of the plan, not of the code, so nothing in the tier derivation could have said the port was the wrong first question. Recorded honestly in both directions: the pass also made an interface change with no review, which is the cost side. One favourable fire is not a calibration; the window stays open to 2026-09-30. Corrects a number this pass asserted: the T01 commit message says '42 of 43, up from 24'. Measured by splicing the old renderer back in, it is 41 of 42 with 1 declared omitted, up from 24 -- and 16 fields were genuinely absent, not 17, because outcome.winners was rendered in a different format. Both original figures were counted by hand. CHAOS gains its first caught entry. Cheapest pass per response yet recorded (0.094 vs a previous best of 0.123). --- evidence/CB-EV-0009-inspectable-table.md | 191 ++++++++++++++++++++++ gates.toml | 4 +- workplans/CB-WP-0011-inspectable-table.md | 27 ++- 3 files changed, 216 insertions(+), 6 deletions(-) create mode 100644 evidence/CB-EV-0009-inspectable-table.md diff --git a/evidence/CB-EV-0009-inspectable-table.md b/evidence/CB-EV-0009-inspectable-table.md new file mode 100644 index 0000000..9f6237b --- /dev/null +++ b/evidence/CB-EV-0009-inspectable-table.md @@ -0,0 +1,191 @@ +# CB-EV-0009 — the chaos roll fired, and what it cost + +CB-WP-0011 T03. Measured 2026-08-02 at `HEAD` after T02. Pass kind +`product`. + +This is the first pass in which the chaos mechanism changed a tier, so +the first question is the one the calibration window exists to answer. + +--- + +## 1. Did tier S produce a worse outcome than tier L would have? + +**No — and the reason is not "tier L was unnecessary". It is that the +roll forced a decomposition that was better than the one I had planned.** + +The declaration: + +``` +structural tier L (INTENT stage 1 creates a new capability port) +chaos d4 = 4 → override fires +override roll shuf -e S M L → S +``` + +Before the roll I had the shape of the tier-L pass in hand: a survey +(`CB-RES-0006`) whose leading constraint would have been **AM-4a's 3,750 +lines of headroom** — 246,250 of a 250,000 target, measured — followed by +an ADR choosing a 2D toolkit and standing up `cb-render-api` / +`cb-render-null`. + +Tier S has no survey and no ADR, and the hard gate — *no implementation +code for a capability exists before its ADR is committed* — is not a tier +weight and does not roll down. So the two rules met head-on, and the +resolution was to **split the declaration**: take the part of stage 1 +that creates no port and adds no dependency, and leave the port to its +own declaration and its own roll. + +What that split surfaced is the finding this pass acted on: + +> `cb-play` already had a renderer. It had had one since stage 0. It was +> showing **24 of the 41** leaf paths a populated `GroundView` carries. + +A tier-L pass would have opened by surveying 2D toolkits. It would have +been surveying how to *draw* a table whose text renderer was silently +dropping the DARVO state machine, the GROUND practice, the scoring mode, +the Focus tokens, the discard pile, per-seat protection, and every part +of the outcome except the headline. **The port was the wrong first +question**, and nothing in the structural tier derivation could have said +so, because the trigger fires on "creates a capability port" — a property +of the *plan*, not of the code. + +**Stated against my own prior.** In the turn before the roll I recommended +tier L and said the AM-4a headroom "should lead the survey". The roll +deleted the survey and the pass was better for it. One data point, and it +is one data point — but it is the *first* evidence the CHAOS gate has +produced in six declarations, and it points the way the mechanism's +defenders hoped and I did not expect. + +**What tier L would have caught that this pass did not.** Being honest in +the other direction: this pass made a real interface change — +`cb_game_runtime::replay::open`, extracted so the inspector and the replay +gate share one bundle reader — with no review and no ADR. It is small, +dev-only, and flagged in its commit per the chaos limits, and I believe it +is right. But "I believe it is right" is exactly what a tier-L review +exists not to accept, and that is the cost side of the ledger. + +**Carried, not concluded.** Six of twelve declarations used, one override. +The retire condition in `gates.toml` asks whether an overridden tier ever +produces *a different outcome than the argued one*. It just did. That is +recorded as the gate's first `caught` entry, and the window stays open — +one favourable fire is not a calibration. + +## 2. The field-coverage gap, before and after + +| | leaf paths shown | +|---|---| +| before (stage-0 renderer) | **24** of 41 | +| after | **41** of 41, plus 1 declared omitted | + +**Measured, not counted.** The old renderer was spliced back in beside the +new fixture and run. That matters, because the first two figures I wrote +for this — "42 of 43, up from 24", in the T01 commit message — were +counted by hand and both were wrong. The trusted-arithmetic class, in a +pass whose entire subject is a gate against unverified claims. + +The measurement also corrects itself in the honest direction: +`outcome.winners.*` shows as missing under the new token but *was* being +rendered, in a different format. So **16 fields were genuinely absent**, +not 17. That is the number to quote. + +The one deliberate omission is `players.*.hand` — `null` for every seat +but the viewer, where the absence is what `hand N card(s)` renders. + +**The gate caught a field its own author had missed**, on its first run, +before it had ever been committed: `players.*.hand` was in neither list. +That is the entry worth having in `M-D1-MUT`'s ledger, more than the three +mutations I designed on purpose. + +## 3. What no test could have caught, and why + +Worth writing down as a class, because it is new here: + +> Every assertion a renderer test naturally makes — *the output mentions +> the round*, *the output is non-empty*, *P2's hand does not appear* — is +> satisfied by a renderer that shows a third of the state. + +This is the harness-does-nothing class in **presentation** form. The +harness runs, the assertions are real, and they are all satisfied by the +defect. What breaks it is asserting over the *shape of the input* rather +than the content of the output: walk the serialized view, require every +leaf path to be classified, and make silence cost a build. + +Paths, not keys. `problem` occurs under a DARVO target, a GROUND choice +and a Selection; a key-set walk would let one of the three vouch for the +other two. + +## 4. Cost, shape, and the meta budget + +| pass | kind | responses | cost | $/response | +|---|---|---|---|---| +| CB-WP-0006 | meta | 158 | $57.22 | 0.362 | +| CB-WP-0007 | meta | 21 | $7.95 | 0.298 | +| CB-WP-0008 | product | 134 | $17.38 | 0.123 | +| CB-WP-0009 | meta | 46 | $11.31 | 0.246 | +| CB-WP-0010 | product | 26 | $4.08 | 0.157 | +| **CB-WP-0011** | **product** | **45** | **$4.23** | **0.094** | + +**The cheapest pass per response yet recorded**, against a previous best +of 0.123. Two mechanical causes, both boring and both worth keeping: + +- it opened immediately after a compaction (§ below), and +- every task had a `cargo test` between it and being wrong. + +The CB-WP-0009 figure moved from $6.73 (as reported in CB-EV-0008 §4) to +$11.31. That is not a correction: CB-EV-0008 was written *during* +CB-WP-0009, and the responses after it are attributed to the pass they +belong to. A pass cannot measure its own final cost, and reporting one +mid-pass will always read low. + +### Session shape + +| metric | this pass | previous pass opened at | target | +|---|---|---|---| +| SH-1 mean context | **147,808** | 338,852 `[HARD]` | ≤ 200,000 | +| SH-2 p90 context | **149,262** | 339,342 `[SOFT]` | ≤ 300,000 | +| SH-3 batching | 0.0% `[SOFT]` | 0.0% | ≥ 20% | + +Both context metrics went from breach to comfortably inside, and the +lever was one `/compact` before the pass opened. That is now the second +time the same lever has produced the cheapest pass on record +(CB-WP-0008 was the first). Two observations are not a law, but the +prediction is cheap and falsifiable: **the next pass opened above the +SH-1 hard line will cost more per response than 0.123.** + +SH-3 stays at 0.0% against a 20% floor and remains unfalsified and +unremedied. It has now read 0.0% for five consecutive passes. + +### Meta budget + +**58% of the trailing three, against a soft 25%** — up from 45%, during +two consecutive `product` passes. + +That is not an instrument defect, but it is a property worth naming: the +budget is a **cost share**, so two cheap product passes move it less than +one expensive meta pass moved it up. CB-WP-0009's $11.31 is 58% of the +$19.62 the window holds, and it leaves the window on the next pass. + +**Falsifiable prediction:** if the next pass is `product`, the trailing-3 +meta share drops to **0%**, because CB-WP-0009 will be the pass that +rolled off. If it does not, the windowing is wrong in a way neither +CB-EV-0007 §3 nor CB-EV-0008 §1 found. + +No product work was displaced by meta work in this pass — nothing meta +was opened. The number is over the line and reported under the rule that +requires reporting it. + +## 5. Open + +- **Stage 1 is not shipped.** This is its inspectable half. INTENT's + stage-1 line stays open; the port, the visualization and + drag-to-propose are untouched. +- **The port declaration is still owed**, structurally tier L, with its + own chaos roll, and with AM-4a's 3,750-line headroom as its leading + constraint. That number is unchanged by this pass — nothing was added + to the shipped runtime. +- **CHAOS has its first `caught` entry** and stays open to 2026-09-30. +- **GATE-REVIEW still has none**, one pass older. +- **SH-3 at 0.0% for five passes.** Either the floor is wrong or the + behaviour is, and neither has been argued. +- **`cb-play` is now two tools in one binary.** Play and inspect share a + renderer and nothing else. If a third mode arrives, that is the second + use, and the split should be reconsidered then rather than now. diff --git a/gates.toml b/gates.toml index 111de34..29b43be 100644 --- a/gates.toml +++ b/gates.toml @@ -120,7 +120,9 @@ target = "" checks = "d4 on each tier declaration, 12-declaration calibration window" added = "2026-07-30" review_by = "2026-09-30" -caught = [] +caught = [ + "CB-WP-0011: first fire in 6 declarations — d4=4 rolled stage 1 from structural L to S; the deleted survey would have opened on 2D toolkits while the existing text renderer was showing 24 of 41 view fields (CB-EV-0009 §1)", +] retire_if = "the window closes with no overridden tier producing a different outcome than the argued one — the evaluation this window exists to make possible" [[gate]] diff --git a/workplans/CB-WP-0011-inspectable-table.md b/workplans/CB-WP-0011-inspectable-table.md index 9e22925..4c997f4 100644 --- a/workplans/CB-WP-0011-inspectable-table.md +++ b/workplans/CB-WP-0011-inspectable-table.md @@ -2,7 +2,7 @@ id: CB-WP-0011 kind: product title: "Stage 1, first slice: an inspector that shows everything" -status: todo +status: done state_hub_workstream_id: "1142442a-65f1-483a-800d-6ca8490c5f1a" --- @@ -110,9 +110,17 @@ test run against a state where the fields are absent is the same lie in a different costume. **Done 2026-08-02.** The renderer moved to `tools/cb-play/src/inspect.rs` -and now covers **42 of the 43 leaf paths** in a populated `GroundView`, -up from 24. The one omission is `players.*.hand` — `null` for a -non-viewer seat, where the absence is what `hand N card(s)` renders. +and now covers **41 of the 42 leaf paths** in a populated `GroundView`. +The one omission is `players.*.hand` — `null` for a non-viewer seat, +where the absence is what `hand N card(s)` renders. + +**Measured, not counted** (T03): the old renderer produced 24 of the 41 +tokens. One of the 17 it missed, `outcome.winners.*`, it did in fact +show — in a different format (`["P1", "P2"]` rather than `winners P1, +P2`), so the token misses it. **16 fields were genuinely absent**, and +that is the number to quote. The commit message for this task says +"42 of 43, up from 24"; both figures were counted by hand before the +measurement and both were wrong. `every_view_field_is_classified` walks the serialized view for leaf *paths* (not keys — `problem` occurs under a DARVO target, a GROUND @@ -193,7 +201,7 @@ nothing at all would still have reported a matching hash and passed. ```task id: CB-WP-0011-T03 -status: todo +status: done priority: medium state_hub_task_id: "db722865-1233-4918-952d-0bf4761199e4" ``` @@ -217,3 +225,12 @@ Write `evidence/CB-EV-0009-inspectable-table.md` covering: lands; the port half is untouched and INTENT's stage-1 line stays open. Marking a stage complete because part of it works is the failure mode stage 0 avoided by leaving the CLI player open for three passes. + +**Done 2026-08-02.** [CB-EV-0009](../evidence/CB-EV-0009-inspectable-table.md). +The headline: tier S did **not** produce a worse outcome, and the reason +is not that tier L was unnecessary — the roll forced a decomposition that +found a defect the survey would have walked past. Recorded as the CHAOS +gate's first `caught` entry, with the window left open. + +Also on record, against my own prior: I recommended tier L in the turn +before the roll, and the roll was right.