CB-WP-0025 T06/T07: a difficulty baseline that reports its own confound
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T06. games/ground/examples/difficulty.rs, make difficulty, wired into make self-tests, and a report file in ground-game under GROUND-WP-0005 with a hub message pointing at it. THE REPORT OPENS WITH THE RETRACTION, because what this task was written to send was withdrawn by T02 and GROUND-WP-0005 is blocked on exactly that number. They are told, in the first section, that we nearly sent them "the game is too easy at 5-6 seats" and why it was wrong. seats winnable greedy random first-legal spread 2p 60% 60.0% 5.0% 76.7% 71.7 3p 93% 88.3% 6.7% 25.0% 81.7 4p 100% 93.3% 6.7% 30.0% 86.7 5p 100% 100.0% 3.3% 0.0% 100.0 6p 100% 100.0% 3.3% 0.0% 100.0 SPREAD justifies the whole redesign: 71.7 to 100.0 points between three trivial policies. The table now shows why no single rate is a difficulty rather than asserting it. And the 5-6 rows point the OPPOSITE way from the withdrawn claim -- first-legal 0% against greedy 100% is the widest spread in the table, which suggests play matters MORE there, not less. Neither reading is established and the report says so. The confound is stated in the tool's own output, not only in prose: `winnable` is conditioned on greedy's play up to the final round, because searching from round 1 is unaffordable. Presenting it as a property of the deal would repeat this pass's error in a subtler form -- which is exactly how a corrected project reintroduces a defect. NO THRESHOLD CHANGES ARE PROPOSED. The instrument can fail (spec §5): a witness must replay to a win, an unwinnable position must report searched-out rather than a budget cut, a one-node budget must not claim exhaustion, and the policy panel must actually disagree. difficulty-baseline.rs marked superseded, kept as the survey's dated snapshot. Registered as F16, inconsistent / withdrawn. T07. evidence/CB-EV-0024. Five of nine defects came only from the review; four from execution, and all four of those were in work written after it. The wrong-denominator family now has five instances and still no control -- facts-check catches copies that disagree, nothing catches a number computed correctly against the wrong base. Tier L was an over-declaration (no port, structurally M) and paid for itself anyway, because the review is L-only. Chaos window 2 will close with zero overrides, making its retirement condition untestable. Named as open rather than implied done: the witness is NOT wired to the ending page. The search works; the browser cannot ask it yet. make all: exit 0. loop-lint clean. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
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@ -43,6 +43,7 @@ kinds, states and metrics: [`GameDesign.md`](GameDesign.md). Reported by
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| F13 | inconsistent | withdrawn | scenarios/ground/gr-e01-threshold-reachable-2p.yaml | counterexample | 2026-08-01 | clay-borg |
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| F14 | unplayed | note | — | — | 2026-08-01 | clay-borg |
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| F15 | underdetermined | note | — | — | 2026-08-05 | clay-borg |
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| F16 | inconsistent | withdrawn | games/ground/examples/difficulty.rs | counterexample | 2026-08-05 | clay-borg |
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<!-- design-register:end -->
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@ -62,6 +63,16 @@ kinds, states and metrics: [`GameDesign.md`](GameDesign.md). Reported by
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`-reachable-`. **Its reproduction is green**, which under GameDesign §1.3
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is the alarm that forced the resolution. Withdrawn rather than deleted,
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and the withdrawal is reported (ADR-0012 D5).
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- **F16 — "the game is too easy at 5–6 seats", withdrawn the day it was
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raised.** Claimed from `GreedyPolicy` winning 200/200 at those seat
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counts. A `FirstLegal` policy scores **0%** on the identical deals, and
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at two seats it *beats* greedy — two unsophisticated agents span the
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whole range, so the measurement was about the policy. Caught by the
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CB-WP-0025 adversarial review (C4) **before transmission**; it would
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have been the fifth wrong premise sent to ground-game and the worst,
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since GROUND-WP-0005 is blocked on exactly this number. The withdrawal
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was reported (ADR-0012 D5). Its reproduction is `difficulty.rs`, whose
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policy panel is plural *because of this finding*.
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- **F15 — the rules define one game, not a series.** `OutcomeView` gives
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`personal` (per seat), `group_success` (per table) and `winners`. Summing
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the first and counting the third answer different questions, and GROUND
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