clay-borg/evidence
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CB-WP-0038: variant selection, H1 implemented, and H1 measured
ground-game packages hypotheses as selectable rules variants — a catalog,
a rules_delta.yaml, and prose — and their note is explicit that CSV text
alone is not executable here. So the kernel gains a Variant in game state:
in the state, therefore in the hash, therefore in the recording, because a
scenario replayed under a different variant would diverge silently.

Baseline is bit-for-bit what it was, asserted across seat counts and
seeds. A variant system that perturbs the baseline invalidates every
measurement this repo has.

H1-A and H1-B implemented from rules_delta.yaml and mutation-proven on
their own defects: "unclaimed" misread as face-up-and-unsolved, and the
attacker's Stress read after the attack's effects. Their `unchanged:` list
is asserted rather than trusted — that list is their claim about their own
experiment.

Measured, and three of their four criteria fail. DARVO arm rate is still
0 under greedy; ATTACK selection does not rise and falls for the rank-75
policy; group success collapses from 165/190/200 to 0 at 3/4/6 seats.
The mechanism is not the assumed one: greedy answers the pressure by
regulating, Stress plateaus at 3, so it never reaches the gate at 4 or the
arm at 5 — H1-A acts as a solve-rate tax and H1-B is unreachable under
competent play.

A harness defect was caught before the claim: sweep discarded refused
games silently and never reported its count, so "nobody won" and "nothing
played" printed identically. Reporting H1 as unwinnable on that basis
would have been the ADR-0018 family aimed at another repo's design. All
200 games ran in every cell; the zeros are real.

Chaos d8 = 8 — the window's first override, redrew L against a structural
L, so it changed nothing. Window 3 recorded in ChaosRollHistory.

NOT REVIEWED: tier L owes a separate-agent adversarial review, and no H1
result may reach ground-game until it has run.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-08 00:50:08 +02:00
..
CB-EV-0001-game-kernel.md CB-WP-0019 T01/T02: AM-4b asks what a contributor acquires 2026-08-03 19:04:54 +02:00
CB-EV-0002-cost-accounting.md CB-WP-0004 T04: fact registry and make facts-check — DFD gets a gate 2026-07-31 10:24:39 +02:00
CB-EV-0003-mechanical-work.md CB-WP-0004 T05: control loop — 6 points recovered, not 25-30 2026-07-31 10:27:09 +02:00
CB-EV-0004-assertion-coverage.md CB-WP-0005 T07/T08: control loop, retrospective, InnerLoop v1.4 2026-07-31 18:05:31 +02:00
CB-EV-0005-instrument-the-table.md CB-WP-0006 T08: control loop — 4 of 14 to 8 of 14, and a cost regression 2026-08-01 13:39:12 +02:00
CB-EV-0007-stage-0.md CB-WP-0008-T04: CB-EV-0007 — stage 0 is shipped, and the spend curve is a V 2026-08-01 15:25:19 +02:00
CB-EV-0008-adaptive-gates.md CB-WP-0009-T04: CB-EV-0008 — the gate changes, measured 2026-08-01 15:45:08 +02:00
CB-EV-0009-inspectable-table.md CB-WP-0011-T03: evidence — the chaos roll fired, and it was right 2026-08-02 02:48:51 +02:00
CB-EV-0010-render-port.md CB-WP-0012-T05: evidence — tier L deleted its own deliverable 2026-08-02 04:30:10 +02:00
CB-EV-0011-instrument-corrections.md CB-WP-0013-T04: evidence — and a rule about quoting your own cost 2026-08-02 07:32:07 +02:00
CB-EV-0012-execute-the-javascript.md CB-WP-0014-T03: hot-seat evidenced; stage 1 open on one human check 2026-08-02 07:58:59 +02:00
CB-EV-0013-the-inert-clauses.md CB-EV-0013: correct the cost table, and the self-quoting rule with it 2026-08-02 14:09:52 +02:00
CB-EV-0014-the-drop-target.md CB-WP-0017: legible interaction, and the chaos window's verdict 2026-08-02 22:42:45 +02:00
CB-EV-0015-legible-interaction.md CB-WP-0017: legible interaction, and the chaos window's verdict 2026-08-02 22:42:45 +02:00
CB-EV-0016-the-browser-is-a-client.md CB-WP-0018 T03/T04: explanations, and window 1's verdict 2026-08-03 02:24:13 +02:00
CB-EV-0017-budgets.md CB-WP-0019 T03/T04: the cost rule written down, and the lifecycle 2026-08-03 19:25:18 +02:00
CB-EV-0018-the-table-you-can-read.md CB-WP-0021: correct the declaration before writing any code 2026-08-03 20:35:39 +02:00
CB-EV-0019-import-the-edition.md CB-WP-0021 T04: evidence -- the endings are tight, and the cost chain snapped 2026-08-05 15:56:31 +02:00
CB-EV-0020-solve-legality.md CB-EV-0020: a gate moved the rule, and the report was wrong 2026-08-04 00:21:21 +02:00
CB-EV-0021-the-design-instrument.md CB-WP-0022 T05/T06/T07: the register, and what its first run found 2026-08-05 15:22:33 +02:00
CB-EV-0022-collect-the-rulings.md CB-WP-0026: collect the rulings -- ten answers that arrived and were never applied 2026-08-05 16:13:37 +02:00
CB-EV-0023-the-table-you-can-watch.md CB-WP-0024: the table you can watch 2026-08-05 17:32:48 +02:00
CB-EV-0024-could-we-have-won.md ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did 2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00
CB-EV-0025-the-commentary-track.md ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did 2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00
CB-EV-0026-the-table-you-sit-at.md ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did 2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00
CB-EV-0027-the-tokens-on-the-table.md ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did 2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00
CB-EV-0028-a-number-that-does-not-move.md CB-WP-0030: a control for the wrong-subject family 2026-08-07 11:35:41 +02:00
CB-EV-0029-the-fourteen-unread-files.md CB-WP-0037 done: T03 classification and T04 evidence 2026-08-08 00:33:24 +02:00
CB-EV-0030-h1-measured.md CB-WP-0038: variant selection, H1 implemented, and H1 measured 2026-08-08 00:50:08 +02:00