clay-borg/tools
tegwick 05d1a9aada
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ADR-0021: the chaos roll is retired, and the condition that retired it was wrong
The condition is met and the tally was verified rather than recalled.
ADR-0017 D2 named window 3 as the decider; windows 2 and 3 each produced
exactly one override and each changed nothing. Every roll in window 3 was
cross-checked against the workplan that made it, because the last time
this project tallied chaos rolls from memory it was wrong and asserted the
wrong figure four times (F23). All twelve agree.

But meeting the condition is not evidence. P(an override changes nothing)
is 1/3, and each window had exactly one override, so the condition fires
on a 1/9 coincidence. ADR-0017 restated it to be REACHABLE and made it
weak in the process; reachability was checked and discriminating power was
not.

Worse, it measures the wrong subject. It asks whether an override changed
the tier; the question is whether changing the tier helped. Under it, a
die that always changed the tier could never be retired however useless
its changes were.

The real ground is stronger. Four overrides across roughly forty
declarations, and the mechanism's value has never once been demonstrated.
The one substantive intervention dropped CB-WP-0011 from a structural L to
S, and that work then needed CB-WP-0016 and CB-WP-0017 to fix defects a
human found by playing. Not offered as causation — a tier is process
weight, not a guarantee — but it is the only evidence we have about an
override's consequences and it points the wrong way.

And the purpose has no live evidence of need: 17 M, 11 S, 4 L across every
workplan, with the only two structural/declared mismatches being the
window-1 overrides themselves. Tier declaration has not ossified.

So: retired, with nothing replacing it. Adding a successor to guard
against ossification that has not occurred would invent a gate for an
instance we do not have. The revival trigger is stated: tiers collapsing
toward one value, or a pass declaring below its structural tier to dodge a
review.

InnerLoop loses the chaos paragraph, loop-lint loses the chaos-recorded
check — a check that outlives its rule becomes an obstruction — and its
self-test now asserts the opposite: a note with no roll must pass.
ChaosRollHistory is closed. Window 4 ends incomplete at four declarations,
the last of which is this one, rolled because the rule was still in force.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-08 15:51:52 +02:00
..
cb-play CB-WP-0038: variant selection, H1 implemented, and H1 measured 2026-08-08 00:50:08 +02:00
cb-sim CB-WP-0015: the two inert clauses, AM-7 scaling and AM-8 N=10 2026-08-02 14:07:08 +02:00
cb-cost.py CB-WP-0013-T02/T03: retire SH-3 as a gate; correct AM-4a and its target 2026-08-02 07:30:14 +02:00
dep-weight.py CB-WP-0019 T01/T02: AM-4b asks what a contributor acquires 2026-08-03 19:04:54 +02:00
design-baseline.py CB-WP-0026: collect the rulings -- ten answers that arrived and were never applied 2026-08-05 16:13:37 +02:00
design.py CB-WP-0026: collect the rulings -- ten answers that arrived and were never applied 2026-08-05 16:13:37 +02:00
edition-check.py CB-REV-0003: round 3, and three of four FATAL came from round 2's fixes 2026-08-08 10:26:25 +02:00
facts.py CB-WP-0006 T07: implement K18, amend K14 2026-08-01 12:47:16 +02:00
gate-review.py CB-WP-0009-T02: gates.toml and make gate-review 2026-08-01 15:42:13 +02:00
loop-lint.py ADR-0021: the chaos roll is retired, and the condition that retired it was wrong 2026-08-08 15:51:52 +02:00
mutation-check.py CB-WP-0021 T06: fix AM-7's measurement, not its floor 2026-08-04 01:10:38 +02:00
replay-test.py CB-WP-0006 T06: K10 replay bundles, --replay, and AM-7 re-earned 2026-08-01 11:05:37 +02:00
repo.py CB-WP-0004 T01: fix environment friction at the root 2026-07-31 10:13:52 +02:00
rule-coverage.py CB-WP-0026: collect the rulings -- ten answers that arrived and were never applied 2026-08-05 16:13:37 +02:00
runtime-metrics.py Fix the AM-5 instrument to measure quietly; the breach was not real 2026-08-01 10:37:25 +02:00
size-metrics.py CB-WP-0006 T02: instrument AM-2; report AM-3 blocked, with the argument 2026-07-31 18:38:15 +02:00
status.py status: a cancelled task is a closed one 2026-08-03 18:55:11 +02:00
task-done.py chore: mark T01/T02 done (measured: $2.33 + $1.68, 46 responses, opus-5) 2026-07-31 10:18:34 +02:00
trials.py CB-WP-0033: a game is the unit 2026-08-07 17:41:11 +02:00