96 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
96 lines
3.6 KiB
Markdown
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# Workload demand forecast — coulomb-social (2026-08)
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| Field | Value |
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|-------|--------|
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| Resource | `resource:tenant:coulomb:coulomb-social` |
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| Workplan | CSOC-WP-0005-T01 |
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| Forecast version | `csoc-demand-2026-08-v1` |
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| Created | 2026-08-12T09:03:47Z |
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| Machine record | `demand-forecast-2026-08.json` |
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## Scope
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Demand for **this production instance** (Coulomb reference tenant on
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Railiance). Deployment shape is **instance-per-client** (DR-1 C): future
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external customers are **separate instances** and separate resource ids —
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they are **not** folded into the high scenario.
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| Case | What it models |
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|------|----------------|
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| **low** | Current parallel-host posture: few operators, Bubble still full product on apex |
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| **base** | Coulomb community day-to-day on the rebuild (still one tenant) |
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| **high** | Full Bubble-parity load on this Coulomb instance (HA-ish replicas/resources) |
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## Proxies (stable units)
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| Proxy | Unit | Notes |
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|-------|------|--------|
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| active_tenants | count | Expected 1 for this instance |
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| active_members | MAU-ish Member count | App-owned |
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| http_requests_per_month | count | App Service ingress |
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| oidc_logins_per_month | count | Successful app logins |
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| background_jobs_per_month | count | 0 until workers exist |
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| app_database_gb | GB logical | `coulomb_social_db` on apps-pg |
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| stored_media_gb | GB | App-owned binaries only |
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| forgejo_content_gb_bound | GB | Attribution for space markdown on shared Forgejo |
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| ingress_gb / egress_gb | GB/month | App path only |
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| cpu/memory request·limit | mCPU / Mi | Declared K8s requirements |
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| operator_hours_per_month | hours | Workload labor (T03) |
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## Scenario table (monthly)
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| Proxy | low | base | high |
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|-------|----:|-----:|-----:|
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| active_tenants | 1 | 1 | 1 |
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| active_members | 5 | 50 | 500 |
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| http_requests | 5 000 | 150 000 | 2 000 000 |
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| oidc_logins | 80 | 1 500 | 20 000 |
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| background_jobs | 0 | 0 | 5 000 |
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| app_database_gb | 0.1 | 1 | 10 |
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| DB growth %/mo | 5 | 10 | 15 |
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| stored_media_gb | 0 | 2 | 50 |
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| forgejo_content_gb_bound | 0.01 | 0.5 | 20 |
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| ingress_gb | 0.5 | 5 | 40 |
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| egress_gb | 1 | 15 | 120 |
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| cpu request (m) | 100 | 200 | 500 |
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| mem request (Mi) | 256 | 512 | 1024 |
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| replicas | 1 | 1 | 2 |
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| operator h/mo | 2 | 4 | 8 |
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| labor €/mo @ €60/h | 120 | 240 | 480 |
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Infrastructure EUR is **not invented** here. Cost joins should treat
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infrastructure as an allocated share of cluster, apps-pg, ingress, and
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identity platform once those owners and fin-hub supply figures.
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## Capacity floor (current deploy declaration)
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From `railiance-apps` chart defaults (production values do not override
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resources as of 2026-08):
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| Dimension | Value |
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|-----------|--------|
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| replicas | 1 |
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| cpu request / limit | 100m / 1000m |
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| memory request / limit | 256Mi / 1Gi |
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| media PV | disabled |
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| Image tag (values) | `7fcd0cf` (railiance-apps helm values; may lag git HEAD) |
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## How resource-control should use this
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1. Pick scenario band from observed MAU / requests (or default **low** until
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Bubble migration starts).
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2. Feed proxies into monthly forecast/actual control (null infrastructure
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until platform prices exist).
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3. Attribute Forgejo-bound content via `forgejo_content_gb_bound` without
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double-counting storage in the app resource.
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4. Recalibrate after three comparable months (MAPE on members, requests, DB
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GB, labor hours).
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## Assumptions and falsifiability
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See JSON `assumptions` array. Primary falsifiers after each calendar month:
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- measured `active_members` outside the active scenario band by >2×
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- `app_database_gb` growth vs declared growth %
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- operator hours vs T03 labor log
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