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+---
+id: FIN-WP-0007
+type: workplan
+title: "AI plan cost, token estimates, and effectiveness"
+domain: financials
+repo: fin-hub
+status: proposed
+owner: grok
+topic_slug: financials
+created: "2026-08-15"
+updated: "2026-08-15"
+related:
+  - FIN-WP-0002
+  - FIN-WP-0004
+  - STATE-WP-0045
+  - ITC-CAP-0.2.0
+origin: assessment
+origin_ref: "info-tech-canon 0.3.0 review — AI token data-gap"
+---
+
+# FIN-WP-0007 — AI plan cost, token estimates, and effectiveness
+
+## Goal
+
+Build a provenance-bearing dataset that lets fin-hub compare **what AI
+plans cost**, **what token capacity they entitle**, **what was actually
+or estimably consumed**, and **what work was delivered**, without treating
+missing session usage as zero and without turning estimates into booked
+spend.
+
+The motivating failure is operational, not theoretical: most coding-agent
+sessions do not emit trustworthy token counts or token costs. The facts
+that *do* exist are monthly plan invoices, plan entitlements, occasional
+provider or State Hub measurements, and independent work outcomes. Those
+must stay distinct and joinable so effectiveness can be watched over
+time.
+
+This workplan applies the InfoTechCanon 0.3.0 / ITC-CAP 0.2.0 split
+already used for infrastructure in `FIN-WP-0004`: booked euros are not
+usage; usage is recorded in native units (`token` for class `I`);
+`unknown` is never stored as `0`; currency is an overlay. It does **not**
+wait for a new commerce or intelligence domain model.
+
+## Boundaries
+
+| Concept | Authoritative writer | Fin-hub role |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| Provider invoice / plan subscription charge | fin-hub | Book once as `booked_cost` |
+| Recurring plan as a financial commitment | fin-hub | Record cadence and amount; not usage |
+| Plan entitlement (included tokens or plan capacity) | fin-hub | Commercial fact, same discipline as engagement prices |
+| Session token evidence (`measured` / `allocated` / `estimated` / `superseded`) | State Hub (`STATE-WP-0045`) | Consume aggregates; do not re-parse sessions |
+| Technical infrastructure usage and resource identity | resource-control | Out of scope here (class `S`/`C`/`P`, `FIN-WP-0004`) |
+| Work done (tasks, progress, outcomes) | State Hub / domain repos | Join key for effectiveness; not a cost driver |
+| Implied €/token and work-per-token / work-per-euro | fin-hub | Reporting overlay; never a booked price |
+| Vendor parsers, transcripts, model names, list prices | State Hub / llm-connect / operators | Not invented here |
+
+Reuse `docs/fin-resource-authority-contract-v0.1.md` shapes
+(`booked_cost`, `usage_observation`, `AllocationEvidence`). Resource-control
+is the wrong *producer* for AI-session usage; the *envelope* is the right
+one. A new AI-plan producer (State Hub aggregates, plus fin-hub's own
+entitlement and booked facts) fills that role.
+
+## Non-goals
+
+- Legal invoices, DATEV postings, or payment execution (`FIN-WP-0005`).
+- Completing the Scaleway `platform:audit-storage` booked-cost round trip
+  (`FIN-WP-0004-T05`). That is class `S`, not class `I`.
+- Owning session parsers or storing transcripts.
+- A canonical token↔hour or token↔euro exchange rate (ITC-CAP forbids
+  asserting one; substitution is observed from the time series).
+- A new definition of “work” beyond joining to existing task / progress
+  outcomes.
+- Editing InfoTechCanon inline. Canon pressure is a demand message, not a
+  kernel patch from this repo.
+
+## Measurement layers
+
+Keep these four quantities in separate records, joined by period,
+provider/plan, and optional workplan/repo:
+
+1. **Booked plan cost** — euros for the subscription month.
+2. **Entitlement** — included tokens or declared plan capacity.
+3. **Consumption of class `I`** — tokens, each row marked
+   `measured` | `inferred` | `unknown`. Missing is `unknown`, never `0`.
+4. **Work done** — tasks or accepted outcomes in the same period.
+
+Derived overlays, never booked facts:
+
+- implied €/token = booked ÷ (measured + estimated + residual)
+- effectiveness = work / measured tokens, work / (measured+estimated)
+  tokens, and work / euro
+- coverage = measured / (measured + estimated + residual)
+
+A month with worse coverage must not look more efficient. Changing an
+estimator method starts a new series.
+
+## Record the authority and measurement split
+
+```task
+id: FIN-WP-0007-T00
+status: todo
+priority: high
+```
+
+Write a short design note in `docs/` that records the four-layer split,
+the authority table above, reuse of the v0.1 exchange envelopes, and
+the State Hub join (token aggregates by
+`measurement_kind`, period, repo/workplan). Confirm `SCOPE.md` already
+covers token-spend models; if the current wording implies session-metered
+CSV rows are the only token surface, update it so plan invoices,
+entitlements, estimated usage, and effectiveness reports are in scope
+while session parsing stays out.
+
+Done when the note is committed, `SCOPE.md` matches the boundary, and
+no task below has an ambiguous owner for booked cost, entitlement,
+session tokens, or work.
+
+## Stop treating missing tokens as zero
+
+```task
+id: FIN-WP-0007-T01
+status: todo
+priority: high
+```
+
+After T00, fix `TokenSpend` and `parse_anthropic_billing_csv` so absent
+token fields are `null` / omitted, not `0`. `0` means measured and none.
+Align ledger import: token quantities that are unknown must not become
+zero ledger attributes, and a cost-only row must remain a cost-only row.
+
+Add regression tests for missing `input_tokens` / `output_tokens`,
+cost-only provider exports, and the invariant that incomplete months
+cannot under-report consumption as zero.
+
+Done when the existing fixture still parses, a missing-token fixture
+does not emit zeros, and CAP-R8 (`unknown` never stored as zero) holds
+on the token path.
+
+## Book AI-plan invoices as facts and commitments
+
+```task
+id: FIN-WP-0007-T02
+status: todo
+priority: high
+```
+
+After T00, ingest monthly AI-plan / subscription charges as
+`booked_cost` facts (one current fact per provider-account × plan ×
+accounting period) and as recurring `Commitment` rows where the plan is
+ongoing. Use the existing financial-fact identity, fingerprint,
+correction, and unknown-tax rules from `FIN-WP-0004`.
+
+Do not explode a flat monthly invoice into synthetic per-session costs.
+Session-level euros, if shown at all, come from a later allocation
+(T05), not from the booked ledger.
+
+Done when a fixture for at least two providers (for example a flat
+subscription and a usage-top-up) books exactly once per period,
+corrects append-only, and appears on burn/runway like any other
+commitment.
+
+## Record plan entitlements
+
+```task
+id: FIN-WP-0007-T03
+status: todo
+priority: high
+```
+
+After T02, add an append-only plan-entitlement record: provider, plan
+identity, period, entitled quantity, unit (`token` or a declared plan
+capacity such as a multiplier), source provenance, and revision link.
+Follow the engagement-price discipline from `FIN-WP-0002-T02`: a
+revision supersedes, a price or capacity is not an invoice, currency
+mismatches cannot silently join.
+
+When entitled tokens are themselves unknown (common for “Max 20×”
+style plans), store `unknown` plus the declared plan label. Do not
+invent a token ceiling.
+
+Done when a plan month can be reported as booked euros + entitled
+capacity (or explicit unknown) without reading session logs.
+
+## Consume State Hub token aggregates as usage observations
+
+```task
+id: FIN-WP-0007-T04
+status: todo
+priority: high
+```
+
+After T00, ingest State Hub token summaries as `usage_observation`
+records (or a compatible typed sibling). Preserve `measurement_kind`
+(`measured`, `allocated`, `estimated`, `superseded`), period, model,
+repo/workplan association, confidence, and coverage. Do not re-parse
+Codex/Claude/Cursor/Grok session files in this repo.
+
+Superseded rows must not enter totals. Estimated and measured must
+remain separable. Months with no State Hub events produce an explicit
+unknown residual, not a zero-consumption observation.
+
+Done when a recorded fixture of mixed measured/estimated/superseded
+aggregates stores as usage evidence, reconciles by kind, and cannot be
+posted as booked spend.
+
+## Allocate booked plan cost across work
+
+```task
+id: FIN-WP-0007-T05
+status: todo
+priority: medium
+```
+
+After T02 and T04, allocate each AI-plan `financial_fact_id` across
+repos/workplans using `AllocationEvidence`: named method, shares, and
+explicit residual. Allowed first methods: measured-token share,
+measured+estimated-token share, session-count share, even split.
+Method and estimator version are part of the record identity.
+
+Shares plus residual must equal 1. Unattributed and unmeasured shares
+stay visible. Allocation never writes a new booked fact.
+
+Done when a one-plan, two-workplan fixture reconciles to the booked
+effective amount, names its method, and keeps residual when coverage
+is incomplete.
+
+## Publish an effectiveness report
+
+```task
+id: FIN-WP-0007-T06
+status: todo
+priority: medium
+```
+
+After T03–T05, add a period report (CLI and, if cheap, the existing
+read API) that emits, per plan and currency:
+
+- booked effective amount
+- entitled capacity (or unknown)
+- tokens measured / estimated / residual-unknown
+- coverage ratio
+- implied €/token, labelled inferred
+- work joined (task counts or accepted outcomes) for the same period
+- work per measured token, work per (measured+estimated) token, work
+  per euro — three series, not one blend
+
+Refuse to present a single blended “efficiency” number. A month whose
+coverage is below a documented threshold is marked unfit for trend
+comparison, not interpolated.
+
+Done when two fixture months with different coverage cannot produce a
+chart in which the worse-measured month looks cheaper per unit of
+work unless that is also true on the measured-only series.
+
+## Send canon feedback
+
+```task
+id: FIN-WP-0007-T07
+status: todo
+priority: low
+```
+
+After T00, send a demand signal to `info-tech-canon` (State Hub
+message and/or a `demand/` note they can assimilate). Ask for:
+
+- a `measured | inferred | declared | unknown` qualifier on
+  `CapabilityConsumption` (reuse ITC-DATA lineage states; do not
+  invent a local dialect);
+- enough `commerce.entitlement` / `commerce.metering` structure for
+  plan capacity and incomplete meters (OQ-5 still open for invoices
+  and entitlements);
+- dropping or re-homing the `cost` quality dimension on
+  `intelligence.generation` so it does not fight ITC-CAP §4.12.
+
+Do not patch the canon from this repo.
+
+Done when the demand is sent, referenced from this workplan, and
+explicitly does not block T01–T06.