fluid_hypothesis:
  schema_version: "0.1"

  id: "H-tg-textonly"
  interface_id: "helix-forge-telegram-publishing"
  state: "DRAFT"

  title: "Text alone reaches further than a post constrained by a caption"

  observation:
    summary: >
      Telegram limits a photo caption to 1024 characters, a quarter of the 4096 available to a text message. Attaching a portrait therefore constrains the composition it accompanies, and a post written to 1024 characters is a different piece of writing from one written to 4096.
    evidence_refs:
      - "canon:fluid-telegram/TelegramCapabilityCanon.md#MED-01"
      - "pressure:P-register"
    affected_cohorts:
      - "telegram-subscribers"

  pressure:
    classes:
      - "repeated_expectation_mismatch"
    pressure_refs:
      - "P-register"
    severity: 0.6
    confidence: 0.7

  explanation:
    claim: >
      The scarce resource in a condensed post is room to say something specific. A generated portrait is decorative and interchangeable across entries; a concrete detail about what someone actually did is not. Trading three quarters of the available text for a picture spends the thing that makes a post worth reading on the thing that makes it look like everything else in the feed.
    reach:
      score: 0.4
      explains:
        - "P-register"
      notes: >
        Narrow but clean. It settles one delivery question decisively, and the
        answer transfers to fluid-x and fluid-substack, which face the same
        question under different feeds.

  proposed_adaptation:
    class: "presentation"
    summary: >
      Publish the post as a text message with a link to the source entry, and no attached visual.
    implementation_scope: "interface_only"

  backend_requirements:
    required: false
    requirement_refs: []

  expected_outcomes:
    - metric: "engagement_rate"
      cohort: "telegram-subscribers"
      target: 0.05
      direction: "higher"
    - metric: "source_link_rate"
      cohort: "telegram-subscribers"
      target: 0.02
      direction: "higher"

  guardrails:
    - metric: "unreviewed_publication"
      operator: "=="
      threshold: false
    - metric: "missing_source_attribution"
      operator: "=="
      threshold: false
    - metric: "missing_subject_consent"
      operator: "=="
      threshold: false
    - metric: "error_rate"
      operator: "<="
      threshold: 0.01

  fitness_dimensions:
    expected:
      client_utility: 0.2
      discoverability: 0.3
      simplicity: 0.3
      correctness: 0.0
      security: 0.0

  complexity:
    expected_delta:
      operation_count: 0
      concept_count: 0
      cognitive_load: 0.1
    score: 0.05

  risk:
    level: "LOW"
    reasons:
      - "presentation only; no contract, authorization or consent change"
      - "the simpler arm; nothing to attach and nothing to fail"

  economics:
    estimated_experiment_cost: 0.0
    estimated_implementation_cost: 0.0
    currency: "EUR"
    expected_value_class: "MEDIUM"

  learning_value:
    score: 0.7
    notes: >
      If this wins, the campaign stops producing portraits for publication and spends that effort on the writing instead.

  success_criteria:
    expression: >
      engagement_rate >= 0.05 AND no guardrail violation

  failure_criteria:
    expression: >
      any hard guardrail violation
      OR engagement_rate at or below the rival arm over the same window

  competition:
    group_id: "CG-tg-delivery"
    alternatives:
      - "H-tg-visual"

  outcome:
    status: null
    summary: null
    evidence_refs: []