fluid_hypothesis:
  schema_version: "0.1"

  id: "H-tg-visual"
  interface_id: "helix-forge-telegram-publishing"
  state: "DRAFT"

  title: "A post carrying its portrait reaches further than text alone"

  observation:
    summary: >
      72 of 94 hall entries already carry a generated portrait, produced from the entry's own visual prompt. Telegram renders images inline and its feed is scanned rather than read, so a post with a portrait occupies more of a scrolling reader's attention than one without.
    evidence_refs:
      - "measurement:hall-of-helix/visuals@2026-09-04"
      - "pressure:P-register"
    affected_cohorts:
      - "telegram-subscribers"

  pressure:
    classes:
      - "repeated_expectation_mismatch"
    pressure_refs:
      - "P-register"
    severity: 0.6
    confidence: 0.7

  explanation:
    claim: >
      Reach in a scanned feed is won by stopping the scroll. The portraits are already made, already tied to the specific person and stretch of work, and cost nothing further to attach. If they do not measurably help, the effort of producing them for publication is not justified and the campaign should know that.
    reach:
      score: 0.4
      explains:
        - "P-register"
      notes: >
        Narrow but clean. It settles one delivery question decisively, and the
        answer transfers to fluid-x and fluid-substack, which face the same
        question under different feeds.

  proposed_adaptation:
    class: "presentation"
    summary: >
      Publish the post with its portrait attached as a photo message, with the post body as the caption.
    implementation_scope: "interface_only"

  backend_requirements:
    required: false
    requirement_refs: []

  expected_outcomes:
    - metric: "engagement_rate"
      cohort: "telegram-subscribers"
      target: 0.05
      direction: "higher"
    - metric: "source_link_rate"
      cohort: "telegram-subscribers"
      target: 0.02
      direction: "higher"

  guardrails:
    - metric: "unreviewed_publication"
      operator: "=="
      threshold: false
    - metric: "missing_source_attribution"
      operator: "=="
      threshold: false
    - metric: "missing_subject_consent"
      operator: "=="
      threshold: false
    - metric: "error_rate"
      operator: "<="
      threshold: 0.01

  fitness_dimensions:
    expected:
      client_utility: 0.2
      discoverability: 0.5
      simplicity: -0.1
      correctness: 0.0
      security: 0.0

  complexity:
    expected_delta:
      operation_count: 0
      concept_count: 0
      cognitive_load: 0.1
    score: 0.15

  risk:
    level: "LOW"
    reasons:
      - "presentation only; no contract, authorization or consent change"
      - "Telegram caps a photo caption at 1024 characters, a quarter of the text limit; this arm constrains the composition it carries"

  economics:
    estimated_experiment_cost: 0.0
    estimated_implementation_cost: 0.0
    currency: "EUR"
    expected_value_class: "MEDIUM"

  learning_value:
    score: 0.7
    notes: >
      Settles whether the portraits earn their place in publication, and the answer transfers to every other channel HelixForge publishes to.

  success_criteria:
    expression: >
      engagement_rate >= 0.05 AND no guardrail violation

  failure_criteria:
    expression: >
      any hard guardrail violation
      OR engagement_rate at or below the rival arm over the same window

  competition:
    group_id: "CG-tg-delivery"
    alternatives:
      - "H-tg-textonly"

  outcome:
    status: null
    summary: null
    evidence_refs: []