Make the sensing loop durable and pin the reserve to Scaleway

The weekday brief only counts when the file is on origin/main. Hub
events without git objects are failures. The open-weight SoT moves
from the VAULT 850 GiB quota to a dedicated Scaleway bucket (One Zone
IA for R, Glacier for S) so V4-Flash and K3 are economically in-scope.

Catalogs the real DeepSeek-V4-Flash-0731 (MIT ~167 GiB MoE, not 12B)
and nominates Qwen3.8-27B. Bucket create remains FI-WP-0004-T08.

Assistant: grok
Assistant-Session: 01a09c6a-1cfc-75b1-a78d-c13eaf22241d

scripts/verify_brief_durability.py

@@ -0,0 +1,114 @@
+#!/usr/bin/env python3
+"""Fail if State Hub fi_daily_brief events are not on origin/main.
+
+A brief day is complete only when briefs/YYYY/MM/YYYY-MM-DD.md exists in
+this git repository (the clone should be origin/main). Hub events that
+claim wrote/committed without a matching file are the 2026-08/09 failure
+mode: local commit on railiance, due-bit cleared, durable memory empty.
+
+Usage:
+  python3 scripts/verify_brief_durability.py
+  STATE_HUB_URL=http://127.0.0.1:8000 python3 scripts/verify_brief_durability.py
+
+Exit 0 = every hub success event has a brief file.
+Exit 1 = mismatch (or hub unreachable when --require-hub is set).
+"""
+from __future__ import annotations
+
+import argparse
+import json
+import os
+import sys
+import urllib.error
+import urllib.request
+from pathlib import Path
+
+ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
+
+
+def brief_path(date: str) -> Path:
+    year, month, _ = date.split("-")
+    return ROOT / "briefs" / year / month / f"{date}.md"
+
+
+def load_events(url: str, timeout: float) -> list[dict]:
+    req = urllib.request.Request(
+        f"{url.rstrip('/')}/progress/?event_type=fi_daily_brief",
+        headers={"Accept": "application/json"},
+    )
+    with urllib.request.urlopen(req, timeout=timeout) as resp:
+        data = json.loads(resp.read().decode())
+    if isinstance(data, list):
+        return data
+    if isinstance(data, dict):
+        for key in ("items", "events", "results"):
+            if isinstance(data.get(key), list):
+                return data[key]
+    raise RuntimeError(f"unexpected hub payload type {type(data)}")
+
+
+def main() -> int:
+    ap = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
+    ap.add_argument(
+        "--hub",
+        default=os.environ.get("STATE_HUB_URL", "http://127.0.0.1:8000"),
+    )
+    ap.add_argument("--timeout", type=float, default=8.0)
+    ap.add_argument(
+        "--require-hub",
+        action="store_true",
+        help="exit 1 if the hub cannot be reached (default: warn and check git only)",
+    )
+    args = ap.parse_args()
+
+    git_dates = sorted(
+        p.stem
+        for p in (ROOT / "briefs").rglob("20*.md")
+        if p.name[0].isdigit()
+    )
+    print(f"git briefs: {len(git_dates)} last={git_dates[-1] if git_dates else '-'}")
+
+    try:
+        events = load_events(args.hub, args.timeout)
+    except (urllib.error.URLError, TimeoutError, json.JSONDecodeError, RuntimeError) as exc:
+        msg = f"hub unreachable or unreadable at {args.hub}: {exc}"
+        if args.require_hub:
+            print(f"FAIL {msg}", file=sys.stderr)
+            return 1
+        print(f"WARN {msg}")
+        return 0
+
+    missing: list[str] = []
+    present: list[str] = []
+    for ev in events:
+        detail = ev.get("detail") or {}
+        date = str(detail.get("date") or "")
+        if not date:
+            continue
+        repo = detail.get("repo")
+        if repo and repo != "freedom-intelligence":
+            continue
+        path = brief_path(date)
+        if path.is_file():
+            present.append(date)
+        else:
+            missing.append(date)
+
+    missing = sorted(set(missing))
+    present = sorted(set(present))
+    print(f"hub fi_daily_brief dates on git: {len(present)}")
+    if missing:
+        print("FAIL hub events with no brief file:")
+        for date in missing:
+            print(f"  {date}  expected {brief_path(date).relative_to(ROOT)}")
+        print(
+            "A local-only commit must not clear due. "
+            "Push to origin, or treat the hub event as a false completion."
+        )
+        return 1
+    print("ok: every hub fi_daily_brief date has a brief file")
+    return 0
+
+
+if __name__ == "__main__":
+    sys.exit(main())