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Audit prospective comparison readiness and retain effort gaps

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199
research/evolution/ComparisonWindows.json Normal file
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@ -0,0 +1,199 @@
{
"schema_version": 1,
"basis": "Declared prospective groups; manually review shared stream, evidence tier, question granularity, evaluation and effort accounting before comparing returns.",
"review_trigger_cycles": 3,
"limits": [
"Group labels and cycle counts do not establish protocol comparability or a learning trend.",
"Unknown or zero research time prevents effort comparison of the complete declared window; never estimate missing time or silently omit its cycle.",
"A qualitative review may retain cycles with unknown effort; corroboration and inconclusive results remain visible.",
"Readiness is a review trigger, not statistical evidence, a plateau declaration or a maturity judgment."
],
"windows": [
{
"stream": "B",
"comparison_group": "B-independent-navigation-source-v1",
"cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0014",
"LEARN-0017"
],
"protocol_refs": [
"research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-zulip-navigation.md",
"research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-zulip-target-lookup.md"
],
"cycles_until_review_trigger": 1,
"qualitative_review_due": false,
"positive_effort_cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0014"
],
"unknown_effort_cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0017"
],
"zero_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"effort_complete": false,
"effort_comparison_ready": false,
"outcomes": {
"corroboration": 1,
"inconclusive": 0,
"merge": 0,
"rejection": 0,
"revision": 1
}
},
{
"stream": "B",
"comparison_group": "B-navigation-mechanism-v1",
"cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0011"
],
"protocol_refs": [
"research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-navigation.md"
],
"cycles_until_review_trigger": 2,
"qualitative_review_due": false,
"positive_effort_cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0011"
],
"unknown_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"zero_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"effort_complete": true,
"effort_comparison_ready": false,
"outcomes": {
"corroboration": 1,
"inconclusive": 0,
"merge": 0,
"rejection": 0,
"revision": 0
}
},
{
"stream": "D",
"comparison_group": "D-sqlite-git-recovery-v1",
"cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0018"
],
"protocol_refs": [
"research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-28-storage-receiver.md"
],
"cycles_until_review_trigger": 2,
"qualitative_review_due": false,
"positive_effort_cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0018"
],
"unknown_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"zero_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"effort_complete": true,
"effort_comparison_ready": false,
"outcomes": {
"corroboration": 1,
"inconclusive": 0,
"merge": 0,
"rejection": 0,
"revision": 0
}
},
{
"stream": "F",
"comparison_group": "F-navigation-focus-v1",
"cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0012"
],
"protocol_refs": [
"research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-navigation-focus.md"
],
"cycles_until_review_trigger": 2,
"qualitative_review_due": false,
"positive_effort_cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0012"
],
"unknown_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"zero_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"effort_complete": true,
"effort_comparison_ready": false,
"outcomes": {
"corroboration": 1,
"inconclusive": 0,
"merge": 0,
"rejection": 0,
"revision": 0
}
},
{
"stream": "F",
"comparison_group": "F-navigation-ownership-v1",
"cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0013"
],
"protocol_refs": [
"research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-navigation-ownership.md"
],
"cycles_until_review_trigger": 2,
"qualitative_review_due": false,
"positive_effort_cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0013"
],
"unknown_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"zero_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"effort_complete": true,
"effort_comparison_ready": false,
"outcomes": {
"corroboration": 0,
"inconclusive": 0,
"merge": 0,
"rejection": 0,
"revision": 1
}
},
{
"stream": "cross-stream",
"comparison_group": "CD-acceptance-projection-static-v1",
"cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0016"
],
"protocol_refs": [
"research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-zulip-acceptance.md"
],
"cycles_until_review_trigger": 2,
"qualitative_review_due": false,
"positive_effort_cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0016"
],
"unknown_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"zero_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"effort_complete": true,
"effort_comparison_ready": false,
"outcomes": {
"corroboration": 1,
"inconclusive": 0,
"merge": 0,
"rejection": 0,
"revision": 0
}
},
{
"stream": "cross-stream",
"comparison_group": "CD-authority-projection-documentary-v1",
"cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0015"
],
"protocol_refs": [
"research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-authority-projection.md"
],
"cycles_until_review_trigger": 2,
"qualitative_review_due": false,
"positive_effort_cycle_ids": [
"LEARN-0015"
],
"unknown_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"zero_effort_cycle_ids": [],
"effort_complete": true,
"effort_comparison_ready": false,
"outcomes": {
"corroboration": 0,
"inconclusive": 0,
"merge": 0,
"rejection": 0,
"revision": 1
}
}
]
}

76
research/evolution/EvolutionReport.md
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@ -59,62 +59,78 @@ Ten selected retrospective outcomes (not a historical census), followed by prosp
Cycles with recorded research effort: 7/18. Unknown effort is neither zero nor estimated from commits, tokens or assertion counts.
### Comparison readiness
Declared groups require a review of shared evidence tier, question granularity, evaluation and effort accounting. A matching label is not proof of comparability. [Machine-readable window audit](../../research/evolution/ComparisonWindows.json).
| Stream / declared group | Cycles | Positive effort | Unknown / zero effort | Qualitative review trigger | Complete-window effort comparison |
| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- | --- |
| B / B-independent-navigation-source-v1 | 2 | 1 | 1 / 0 | pending | not ready |
| B / B-navigation-mechanism-v1 | 1 | 1 | 0 / 0 | pending | not ready |
| D / D-sqlite-git-recovery-v1 | 1 | 1 | 0 / 0 | pending | not ready |
| F / F-navigation-focus-v1 | 1 | 1 | 0 / 0 | pending | not ready |
| F / F-navigation-ownership-v1 | 1 | 1 | 0 / 0 | pending | not ready |
| cross-stream / CD-acceptance-projection-static-v1 | 1 | 1 | 0 / 0 | pending | not ready |
| cross-stream / CD-authority-projection-documentary-v1 | 1 | 1 | 0 / 0 | pending | not ready |
Unknown or zero effort is not dropped to create a favorable window. Qualitative review can retain those cycles, but effort comparisons need an explicitly reviewed window with measured positive research time. No trend or plateau is inferred.
### Stream B / B-independent-navigation-source-v1
| Cycle | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0014 | revision | 6.345 | 9.46 |
| LEARN-0017 | corroboration | unknown | unknown |
| Cycle | Protocol | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0014 | [protocol](../../research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-zulip-navigation.md) | revision | 6.345 | 9.46 |
| LEARN-0017 | [protocol](../../research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-zulip-target-lookup.md) | corroboration | unknown | unknown |
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three comparable cycles: no trend assessment.
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three declared cycles: qualitative review trigger pending; no trend assessment.
### Stream B / B-navigation-mechanism-v1
| Cycle | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0011 | corroboration | 6.177 | 0.00 |
| Cycle | Protocol | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0011 | [protocol](../../research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-navigation.md) | corroboration | 6.177 | 0.00 |
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three comparable cycles: no trend assessment.
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three declared cycles: qualitative review trigger pending; no trend assessment.
### Stream D / D-sqlite-git-recovery-v1
| Cycle | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0018 | corroboration | 4.123 | 0.00 |
| Cycle | Protocol | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0018 | [protocol](../../research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-28-storage-receiver.md) | corroboration | 4.123 | 0.00 |
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three comparable cycles: no trend assessment.
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three declared cycles: qualitative review trigger pending; no trend assessment.
### Stream F / F-navigation-focus-v1
| Cycle | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0012 | corroboration | 5.138 | 0.00 |
| Cycle | Protocol | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0012 | [protocol](../../research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-navigation-focus.md) | corroboration | 5.138 | 0.00 |
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three comparable cycles: no trend assessment.
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three declared cycles: qualitative review trigger pending; no trend assessment.
### Stream F / F-navigation-ownership-v1
| Cycle | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0013 | revision | 13.918 | 4.31 |
| Cycle | Protocol | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0013 | [protocol](../../research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-navigation-ownership.md) | revision | 13.918 | 4.31 |
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three comparable cycles: no trend assessment.
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three declared cycles: qualitative review trigger pending; no trend assessment.
### Stream cross-stream / CD-acceptance-projection-static-v1
| Cycle | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0016 | corroboration | 4.182 | 0.00 |
| Cycle | Protocol | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0016 | [protocol](../../research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-zulip-acceptance.md) | corroboration | 4.182 | 0.00 |
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three comparable cycles: no trend assessment.
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three declared cycles: qualitative review trigger pending; no trend assessment.
### Stream cross-stream / CD-authority-projection-documentary-v1
| Cycle | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0015 | revision | 3.128 | 19.18 |
| Cycle | Protocol | Outcome | Research minutes | Consequential outcome/hour |
| --- | --- | --- | ---: | ---: |
| LEARN-0015 | [protocol](../../research/evolution/cycles/2026-09-27-authority-projection.md) | revision | 3.128 | 19.18 |
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three comparable cycles: no trend assessment.
One bounded question counts at most one consequential outcome. Corroboration and inconclusive work remain visible separately. Fewer than three declared cycles: qualitative review trigger pending; no trend assessment.
## Coherence and maintainability
@ -124,7 +140,7 @@ Profiles with unknown last substantive review date: 0. Assessment dates record t
Coherence metrics (ambiguous selections, unjustified relations and overlap resolved): not measured. Conflict Copy / Explicit Reconciliation overlap remains an explicit open question.
Review backlog and evidence gaps remain in [FEP-WP-0002-seed-language-validation](../../workplans/FEP-WP-0002-seed-language-validation.md), [FEP-WP-0003-contrasting-schools](../../workplans/FEP-WP-0003-contrasting-schools.md), [FEP-WP-0006-language-evolution](../../workplans/FEP-WP-0006-language-evolution.md).
Review backlog and evidence gaps remain in [FEP-WP-0009-m1-independent-validation](../../workplans/FEP-WP-0009-m1-independent-validation.md), [FEP-WP-0003-contrasting-schools](../../workplans/FEP-WP-0003-contrasting-schools.md), [FEP-WP-0006-language-evolution](../../workplans/FEP-WP-0006-language-evolution.md), [FEP-WP-0008-use-driven-improvement](../../workplans/FEP-WP-0008-use-driven-improvement.md).
## Pattern profiles

18
research/evolution/README.md
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@ -66,6 +66,9 @@ renew them. Historical snapshots retain their original schema-v1 assessments.
undermine their scope. Never promote automatically from metric thresholds.
Commands: `make evolution-report`, `make evolution-check`, `make evolution-test`.
Generation writes both EvolutionReport.md and the machine-readable
[ComparisonWindows.json](ComparisonWindows.json); checking rejects stale output
in either artifact.
The check rejects stale candidate hashes, missing references, inventory drift,
invalid provenance, unknown identities, corrupted baseline candidate hashes and stale
generated output. It does not
@ -112,6 +115,21 @@ baseline or the selected retrospective entries. Prefer more independent validati
when beliefs stabilize; broaden when new contexts expose missing decisions; repair
structure when ambiguity prevents use. Low novelty alone is not a stopping rule.
The window audit groups prospective entries by declared stream and comparison-group
label, orders them by date/identity, and retains links to every registered protocol.
Its three-cycle qualitative review trigger does not verify comparability: review
evidence tier, question granularity, evaluation and accounting against those protocols
first. Retrospective entries never join a window, even if later assigned effort or
a matching label. Outcomes include corroboration and inconclusive work.
The audit distinguishes positive research time, unknown time and recorded zero time.
Unknown or zero effort permits qualitative discussion with limits but prevents
effort comparison of the complete declared window. Do not silently discard those
cycles or reconstruct their time from commits. A narrower window needs an explicit
review explaining its boundary and retained exclusions. Readiness does not calculate
a trend, declare a plateau or complete WP-0006 T03; that task needs an evidence-bearing
review of useful comparable research, not a generated count.
Keep both the unchanged candidate cohort and additions/removals visible when
comparing snapshots. A growing inventory must not hide weakening evidence for old
claims. Learning continues after milestones; finite workplans carry the next bounded

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research/evolution/context.json
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@ -64,8 +64,9 @@
"adjudicated_unsupported_claim_count": null
},
"open_work": [
"workplans/FEP-WP-0002-seed-language-validation.md",
"workplans/FEP-WP-0009-m1-independent-validation.md",
"workplans/FEP-WP-0003-contrasting-schools.md",
"workplans/FEP-WP-0006-language-evolution.md"
"workplans/FEP-WP-0006-language-evolution.md",
"workplans/FEP-WP-0008-use-driven-improvement.md"
]
}