79 lines
3.8 KiB
Markdown
79 lines
3.8 KiB
Markdown
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---
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id: GROUND-RPT-0004
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type: report
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title: "clay-borg: H1 measured — reaches unregulated seats; group success collapses"
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domain: consumer
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repo: ground-game
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status: informational
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owner: bernd
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topic_slug: whynot
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created: "2026-08-08"
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extends: GROUND-WP-0006
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---
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# H1 measurement receipt (clay-borg CB-EV-0030 / CB-EV-0031)
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Upstream: clay-borg `evidence/CB-EV-0030-h1-measured.md`,
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`evidence/CB-EV-0031-a-seat-that-does-not-regulate.md`, hub message
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2026-08-08. Variant selection + H1-A/H1-B implemented in their kernel from
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`rules_delta.yaml`. Baseline `unchanged:` list asserted.
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**Instrument caveat (their words):** three rounds of adversarial review;
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twelve defects were in *their* harness, not in H1 design. Stable finding:
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**H1 reaches the unregulated seat, and the table stops winning.** Supporting
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numbers moved across corrections — treat policy-dependent tables as
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directional, not absolute.
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No felt-play. SHARED GROUND dominant for regulation comparison; attack-value
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covers three modes for arms.
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---
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## Criteria §3.2 (design note)
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| # | criterion | verdict |
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|---|-----------|---------|
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| 1 | DARVO arm rate non-trivial | **Policy-dependent.** 0 for greedy. **Met for unregulated `reactive`** (~1 arm/seat/game at 3p+). Under rank-75, H1 *reduces* arms to 0 at 3p+ |
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| 2 | ATTACK rises for some subpopulation | **Met only for unregulated seat.** rank-75 attacks **fall** under H1 (often to 0 at 3p+) |
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| 3 | group success does not collapse | **Fails hard.** Greedy SHARED: 165/190/200 → **0** at 3/4/6p; 2p 132 → 68 |
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| 4 | Bond/GROUND better than DARVO | Vacuous for winning policies (they never arm) |
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## Mechanism (not what H1 assumed)
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H1-A is answered by **regulation** (GROUND), not by climbing to DARVO:
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- Stress plateaus ~3 under greedy (below gate 4 and arm 5).
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- Actions spent on stress hygiene → fewer SOLVEs → **solve-rate tax**.
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- **H1-B never fires** under competent play (Stress never ≥4).
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Seed-1 3p illustration: baseline clear board / success; H1 ends Stress 3,3,3 with 2 unclaimed and under threshold.
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Tax scales with open board (harder at 3p+); intended DARVO effect does not.
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## Baseline Stress economy (larger than H1)
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Under greedy **and** reactive on **baseline** r0: peak Stress **held** never exceeds start **2** — Stress only falls — when those policies never select ATTACK. ATTACK appears to be the **sole inbound pressure** for those policies. That is a sharper account of RPT-0003 than “ATTACK never pays”: **the pressure ATTACK would answer never occurs** unless someone already attacks.
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(Always-attack rank-95 *does* drive Stress under baseline — so the economy is reachable; just not by non-attacking competent play.)
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## Invariant (unexplained)
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Under `reactive` + H1 at 3p/4p/6p: DARVO arms **exactly `seats × games`** (one arm per seat per game). clay-borg does not explain it. H1-B disabled → arm count unchanged (withdrawn “H1-B suppresses attacker DARVO” story).
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## Withdrawn by clay-borg
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Story that H1-B suppresses DARVO in the attacker / concentrates it in the target — from a broken multi-preference policy.
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## Their offered tuning directions (not findings)
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If the aim is Stress sometimes reaching 5: pressure scaling with **count** of unclaimed Problems; delay pressure until later rounds; lower DARVO arm threshold. Each is a rules choice for ground-game.
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---
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## Ground-game reading (for WP-0006-T04/T05)
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1. **Do not promote H1 as packaged** into baseline — criterion 3 fails.
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2. **Direction is right:** Problem → Stress coupling addresses the real gap (inbound pressure only via ATTACK).
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3. **Shape/magnitude is wrong:** flat +1/end is a board-clear tax that competent players absorb with GROUND before DARVO.
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4. **Next experiment** should change *how* pressure is applied (scaled/delayed/targeted), not only add status stress — though Idea 2 last-place (semi) remains a candidate **H2** per design note §6.
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