A board game of bonds and rivalry.
tegwick
edda653db2
GROUND-WP-0005 has both tasks blocked on a measured difficulty baseline. This is that baseline, with its confound stated rather than hidden. It opens with a retraction. Earlier today clay-borg was going to report that a greedy bot wins 200 of 200 games at five and six seats and the game is too easy there -- which would have invited threshold changes. A FirstLegal policy scores 0% on the identical deals where greedy scores 100%, and at two seats it beats greedy. Two unsophisticated agents span the entire range, so a single policy's win rate is a statement about the policy. clay-borg's adversarial review caught it before it left the repo. Fifth wrong premise avoided, second stopped before sending. What is reported instead is the WINNABLE FRACTION -- the proportion of deals in which an exhaustive search finds a winning line in the final round -- alongside a plural policy panel and the SPREAD between policies. The spread is 71.7 to 100.0 percentage points, which is the direct evidence for why the single-policy figure was meaningless. Stated limits: the winnable figure is conditioned on greedy's play up to the final round (searching from round 1 exceeded 2x10^6 nodes at two seats), it is a lower bound, and budget-cut deals are excluded rather than counted as losses. No threshold changes are proposed. The confound is large enough that clay-borg would rather this repo saw it than acted on it. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> |
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| workplans | ||
| .custodian-brief.md | ||
| .gitignore | ||
| .repo-classification.yaml | ||
| AGENTS.md | ||
| INTENT.md | ||
| LICENSE | ||
| README.md | ||
| SCOPE.md | ||
| WORK-RECORDS.md | ||
ground-game
A board game of bonds and rivalry.