tegwick
8249c34100
IR-WP-0008 imports those drop-folder exports on the due-job timer and records that website automation runs still have no public feed. Assistant: grok Assistant-Session: 01a106a5-fc07-78c2-b64f-8e04cea25daf
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6.5 KiB
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43 lines
No EOL
6.5 KiB
Text
**28 September 2026 (Europe/Berlin).** Frontier weather: dense mid-tier and efficiency releases compress the cost-intelligence curve while agentic and cyber benchmarks expose large price gaps and safety refusal differences; no single model dominates across boards.
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### Frontier & markets
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Confirmed cluster of releases in the last 10 days. Anthropic shipped Claude Opus 5.5 (22 Sep) at $4 input / $20 output per million tokens (20% below prior Opus; cache reads cut to $0.20), positioning it near Fable 5.1 capability at ~40% lower typical cost, followed today by Claude Sonnet 5.5 at unchanged $2/$10 (cache reads $0.20). Sonnet 5.5 is reported faster (>30% output speed), lower per-task cost (up to ~30% via fewer tokens), and strong on agentic coding (e.g., Terminal-Bench 4.0 scores near or above Opus 5.5 in some reports) with first-Sonnet cyber safeguards and fallbacks.
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OpenAI released GPT-6 Sol ($2/$10) and GPT-6 Luna ($0.10/$0.50) on 22 Sep, halving prior GPT-5.6 promotional pricing, with improved caching (90% off cached input) and claims of strong cost-performance on AutomationBench, Agents’ Last Exam, DeepSWE, FrontierCode, and OSWorld relative to higher-priced peers. GPT-6 Astra remains the higher tier.
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xAI (SpaceXAI) released Grok 4.7 (21 Sep) at the same $2/$6 as Grok 4.6, citing a larger base, longer RL on multi-hour tasks, better self-checking/context, and gains on CursorBench, DeepSWE, and knowledge-work suites.
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Other confirmed: Xiaomi MiMo-V2.6-Pro/Flash (open weights, competitive pricing), Google Gemini 3.8 variants (Flash TTS etc.), Qwen3.8-Omni-Flash, and others tracked by release aggregators. Artificial Analysis Intelligence Index (note version carefully; recent snapshots show Claude Opus 5.5 near top ~57–58 range, Sonnet 5.5 ~56, with prior leaders including Fable/Astra variants) and new Cyber Index (composite of CWE-Bench-AA, DeepsecBench-AA, CyberGym-E2E-AA) highlight Grok 4.7 (xhigh) and MiMo-V2.6-Pro tying at 56, GPT-6 Luna strong at low cost (~$0.12/task reported), and high refusal rates (32–38%) on some frontier models for cyber tasks—creating ~65× cost gaps at similar scores.
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Availability/pricing first-class: cache and list-price cuts dominate; capacity continues to constrain some free/enterprise tiers per broader reports. Saturated exams (older SWE-bench Verified variants) are not reliable rankers; prefer named harnesses (Terminal-Bench 4.0, OSWorld 2.0, DeepSWE, AutomationBench-AA, AA-Briefcase, etc.).
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### Science of intelligence
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Measurement emphasis remains on agentic, multi-step, and domain-specific suites rather than static knowledge exams. Artificial Analysis continues iterative Index updates (v4.3 lineage incorporating Terminal-Bench upgrades, AutomationBench-AA private sets, GDP.pdf long-context, etc.) with explicit cost-per-task and token-use reporting. Cyber Index launch formalizes defensive vulnerability discovery/reproduction/patching evaluation with industry partners (Collinear, IBM, NVIDIA, Vercel) and open Stirrup harness—highlighting that refusal policies materially affect usable scores.
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Primary lab work continues on alignment (lower misleading claims, containment resistance), factuality on real flagged conversations, and long-horizon professional workflows. Human modeling angles (neuroscience/cognitive science interfaces) appear quieter in the last week’s primary releases; focus stays on scaling agent reliability and verification. No major new theory papers from the named thinkers dominated the cycle.
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### Engineering
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Agents and coding remain the active frontier: Terminal-Bench 4.0, DeepSWE, FrontierCode (mergeability), OSWorld computer-use, and CursorBench show continued gains with scaffolding sensitivity. Inference advances center on prompt caching improvements (higher hit rates, mid-conversation reasoning/tool changes without cache breaks), adaptive effort/fallback, and speed (Sonnet 5.5, Grok variants). Energy/chip details sparse in primary model cards this window; capacity constraints and GPU pricing volatility persist in secondary market reports. Open-weights (MiMo, GLM, DeepSeek Flash variants) keep pressure on proprietary cost curves.
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### Political / legal / social
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EU AI Act enforcement is live for applicable provisions (transparency, GPAI oversight powers from ~2 Aug 2026). The AI Omnibus (in force late July) deferred most standalone high-risk system obligations to 2 Dec 2027 (Annex III) and later for product-embedded systems, while adding prohibitions on certain non-consensual intimate/CSAM generation systems and adjusting literacy/sandbox timelines. Watermarking/transparency duties remain near-term relevant.
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No major new US federal primary actions dominated the week; state-level transparency and employment rules continue. Social impact centers on enterprise evaluation strain from rapid release cadence and the operational cost of safety refusals in cyber/agent workloads.
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### Watchlist hits (primary links)
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- Anthropic Claude Sonnet 5.5: https://www.anthropic.com/claude-sonnet-5-5 (and platform docs). Confirmed.
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- OpenAI GPT-6 Sol/Luna: https://openai.com/index/introducing-gpt-6-sol-and-luna/. Confirmed.
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- xAI Grok 4.7: https://x.ai/news/grok-4-7. Confirmed.
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- Artificial Analysis Cyber Index: https://artificialanalysis.ai/articles/artificial-analysis-cyber-index. Confirmed.
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- Artificial Analysis Sonnet 5.5 note / Index updates: artificialanalysis.ai articles (28 Sep). Confirmed.
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- EU AI Act / Omnibus status: digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu pages. Confirmed.
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### Ledger actions
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- Re-evaluate Efficient / Budget labels for GPT-6 Sol/Luna (halved pricing + caching) and Sonnet 5.5 (token efficiency + speed) on agentic coding and knowledge-work tasks; Opus 5.5 may shift Frontier cost positioning.
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- Cyber Index (and Terminal-Bench 4.0) should enter or reweight the five-benchmark atlas for agentic/security workloads—refusal rates and cost-per-successful-task become first-class.
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- Monitor Haiku 5.5 (announced as imminent) and any capacity/region adjustments. Older saturated SWE-bench Verified numbers should not drive re-labeling.
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### Sources
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Primary/lab: openai.com (Sol/Luna, Astra system card references), anthropic.com / platform.claude.com (Sonnet 5.5, Opus 5.5), x.ai/news/grok-4-7, artificialanalysis.ai (Index v4.x notes, Cyber Index, Sonnet 5.5). Aggregators for confirmation only (BenchLM, release trackers). EU: digital-strategy.ec.europa.eu AI Act pages. Secondary corroboration from Reuters, TechCrunch, etc., tagged reported where not primary.
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Ask Intelligence Radar a task for a Task Router ticket (5 benchmarks → Frontier / Efficient / Budget + optional decomposition). |