Fix the lease watcher, and record that three checks were themselves wrong
The first lease watch returned FAILED on one sample of 21. That sample was the instrument: it treated an empty kubectl result as not-ready, so a transient API hiccup was recorded as an outage. The service returned zero 503s across the window, with a readiness probe every 5s and 46 minutes of uptime past a 30-minute lease. Not overriding the verdict by argument — a verdict that can be talked around is worth nothing. The watcher now distinguishes a failed query from a failed service and corroborates against the kubelet's probe history, which samples far more often than once a minute. Promoted from scratch into tools/ so it is reviewable and re-runnable. Three checks in this rollout were defective in the same way: live-image-digest-match degrading to 'not pinned' while a digest was pinned, check_readiness reporting 'database unreachable' for a reachable but unmigrated database, and this watcher. A verification step that cannot fail correctly is worse than none, because it is trusted. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Claude-Session: https://claude.ai/code/session_01Bjefh8NUiEiahN4JLwoSKM Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 388925@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: 3507023f-e0fd-4a1e-9d90-a0d4217d1502
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@ -74,3 +74,34 @@ lease window cannot distinguish a service that works from one that works *once*.
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The criterion for `verified` is therefore observation across a full rotation,
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not a passing check at a single instant — an availability property is not
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provable by one sample.
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## The watcher was also wrong
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The first lease watch returned **FAILED** on one sample out of 21. That sample
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was the instrument, not the service: it treated an empty `kubectl` result as
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"not ready", so a transient API hiccup was recorded as an outage.
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The service had returned **zero** 503s across the whole window. The readiness
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probe fires every 5s, so a genuine two-minute outage would have left roughly
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twenty-four of them, and the pod ran 46 minutes past a 30-minute lease with no
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restarts.
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I did not override the verdict by argument — a verdict that can be talked around
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is worth nothing. The watcher is fixed (`tools/lease-watch.sh`) to distinguish
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a failed *query* from a failed *service*, and to corroborate its own sampling
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against the kubelet's probe history, which is a far better instrument than one
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sample a minute. Then re-measured.
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**Three checks in this rollout were themselves defective**, all the same shape —
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unable to distinguish their own failure from the failure they were watching for:
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| Check | How it lied |
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|---|---|
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| `live-image-digest-match` | line-offset `grep` returned empty; reported "not pinned yet" while a digest was pinned |
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| `check_readiness` (earlier) | one `except` reported "database unreachable" for a reachable but unmigrated database |
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| lease watcher v1 | empty `kubectl` output counted as an outage |
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A verification step that cannot fail correctly is worse than none, because it is
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trusted. That is the durable lesson from this deployment, more than any single
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defect it found.
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