Apply Development Effort Calculator to real pilot candidates (WP-0010-T03)
Adds since/until date-range scoping to cluster_commit_hours() and workplan_task_counts() (threaded through calculate_target_basis()), needed whenever a candidate is one bounded workplan within a repo whose overall history spans much more (net-kingdom, railiance-apps) rather than the whole repo being the candidate (vergabe-teilnahme, info-tech-canon). Fixes a real bug found along the way: workplan_task_counts() only scanned the top level of workplans/, missing net-kingdom's workplans/archived/ convention entirely - silently reported zero finished workplans for NK-WP-0002, which lives there. Fixed to scan recursively; added a regression test. Updates all three draft pilot-candidate manifests with calculator- derived target_basis/initial_target values, replacing the hand-picked placeholders: net-kingdom-local-identity: 200,000 -> 10,000 EUR (floor + sanity warnings) railiance-vergabe-teilnahme: 3,500,000 -> 648,800 EUR (no warnings) info-tech-canon-service-surface: 2,500,000 -> 141,800 EUR (sanity warning) history/260730-EffortCalculator-CandidateApplication.md records full derivation, warnings, and the judgment calls made explicit rather than silently picked (date-scoping windows; measuring vergabe-teilnahme's own repo rather than railiance-apps' deployment-only wiring, with both figures shown). Still draft/non-binding - WP-0008-T05 unaffected. 5 new tests (20 -> now covering since/until scoping and the archived-subdirectory fix). Full suite: 84 passing offline.
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9 changed files with 405 additions and 25 deletions
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@ -113,7 +113,10 @@ class TargetBasisEstimate:
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def cluster_commit_hours(
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repo_path: str | Path, session_gap_hours: float = DEFAULT_SESSION_GAP_HOURS
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repo_path: str | Path,
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session_gap_hours: float = DEFAULT_SESSION_GAP_HOURS,
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since: str | None = None,
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until: str | None = None,
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) -> CommitTimeEstimate:
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"""Group commit timestamps into sessions (gap-based clustering).
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@ -126,11 +129,20 @@ def cluster_commit_hours(
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This is an explicit floor estimate (concept §2a), not a true count —
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time spent reading, thinking, or working without committing is
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invisible to it by construction.
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`since`/`until` (any `git log --since`/`--until`-accepted date string,
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e.g. `"2026-03-01"`) scope the estimate to a date range — required
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whenever the candidate Milestone Release is one bounded workplan
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within a repo whose overall history spans much more unrelated work
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than that one Phase. Whole-repo history (the default, no scoping) is
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only correct when the repo's entire history *is* the candidate.
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"""
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result = subprocess.run(
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["git", "-C", str(repo_path), "log", "--all", "--format=%at"],
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capture_output=True, text=True, check=True,
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)
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cmd = ["git", "-C", str(repo_path), "log", "--all", "--format=%at"]
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if since:
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cmd += ["--since", since]
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if until:
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cmd += ["--until", until]
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result = subprocess.run(cmd, capture_output=True, text=True, check=True)
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timestamps = sorted(int(line) for line in result.stdout.splitlines() if line.strip())
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if not timestamps:
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return CommitTimeEstimate(raw_hours=0.0, session_count=0, commit_count=0)
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@ -161,16 +173,34 @@ def cluster_commit_hours(
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_TASK_BLOCK_RE = re.compile(r"```task\n(.*?)\n```", re.DOTALL)
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_FRONTMATTER_RE = re.compile(r"^---\n(.*?)\n---", re.DOTALL)
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_STATUS_FIELD_RE = re.compile(r'^status:\s*"?([^"\n]+)"?\s*$', re.MULTILINE)
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_UPDATED_FIELD_RE = re.compile(r'^updated:\s*"?([0-9]{4}-[0-9]{2}-[0-9]{2})"?\s*$', re.MULTILINE)
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_CREATED_FIELD_RE = re.compile(r'^created:\s*"?([0-9]{4}-[0-9]{2}-[0-9]{2})"?\s*$', re.MULTILINE)
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def workplan_task_counts(repo_path: str | Path) -> WorkplanTaskCounts:
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def workplan_task_counts(
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repo_path: str | Path, since: str | None = None, until: str | None = None
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) -> WorkplanTaskCounts:
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"""Count finished workplans and tasks under `<repo>/workplans/`.
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Follows this repo's own workplan convention (YAML-ish frontmatter with
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a `status:` field, ```task fenced blocks each with their own
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`status:` line) rather than requiring state-hub connectivity — works
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on any repo using this convention, degrades to zero (not an error) for
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repos with no `workplans/` directory at all.
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repos with no `workplans/` directory at all. Scans recursively (not
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just the top level), since several repos in this ecosystem archive
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finished workplans under `workplans/archived/` rather than deleting
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them — a non-recursive scan would silently undercount exactly the
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finished work this function exists to measure.
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`since`/`until` (`YYYY-MM-DD` strings) restrict counting to workplans
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whose frontmatter `updated` (falling back to `created`) date falls
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within the window — a workplan file with neither field is always
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counted, since there is nothing to filter it by. Pass matching
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`since`/`until` values to `cluster_commit_hours` when scoping a
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candidate to one bounded workplan within a repo whose overall history
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spans much more; otherwise a whole-repo workplan count compared
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against a date-scoped time estimate produces a misleading sanity-check
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signal (falsely flagging under-counting).
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"""
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workplans_dir = Path(repo_path) / "workplans"
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if not workplans_dir.is_dir():
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@ -180,15 +210,26 @@ def workplan_task_counts(repo_path: str | Path) -> WorkplanTaskCounts:
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total_tasks = 0
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finished_tasks = 0
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for md_file in sorted(workplans_dir.glob("*.md")):
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for md_file in sorted(workplans_dir.rglob("*.md")):
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try:
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text = md_file.read_text(encoding="utf-8", errors="ignore")
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except OSError:
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continue
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frontmatter_match = _FRONTMATTER_RE.match(text)
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frontmatter = frontmatter_match.group(1) if frontmatter_match else ""
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if since or until:
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date_match = _UPDATED_FIELD_RE.search(frontmatter) or _CREATED_FIELD_RE.search(frontmatter)
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if date_match:
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date_str = date_match.group(1)
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if since and date_str < since:
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continue
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if until and date_str > until:
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continue
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if frontmatter_match:
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status_match = _STATUS_FIELD_RE.search(frontmatter_match.group(1))
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status_match = _STATUS_FIELD_RE.search(frontmatter)
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if status_match and status_match.group(1).strip() == "finished":
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finished_workplans += 1
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@ -336,6 +377,8 @@ def calculate_target_basis(
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hours_per_day: float = DEFAULT_HOURS_PER_DAY,
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extra_excludes: frozenset[str] = frozenset(),
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model_pricing: dict[str, dict[str, float]] | None = None,
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since: str | None = None,
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until: str | None = None,
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) -> TargetBasisEstimate:
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"""End-to-end convenience entry point: repo path + token counts in,
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a proposed `target_basis` estimate (with warnings and derivation) out.
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@ -344,9 +387,22 @@ def calculate_target_basis(
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hub's `get_token_summary`) rather than fetched here, since this
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module has no MCP/network client of its own — keeping it offline-first
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like the rest of this library.
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`since`/`until` scope both commit-time clustering and workplan/task
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counting to the same date window — pass both whenever the candidate
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Milestone Release is one bounded workplan within a repo whose overall
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history spans much more (see `cluster_commit_hours`/
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`workplan_task_counts` docstrings); leave unset only when the repo's
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entire history genuinely is the candidate. Repo size (file/line
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counts) is not date-scoped — it reflects the repo's current state
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regardless of when each file was last touched, which is intentional
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(`target_basis` describes the Milestone Release's actual delivered
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size, not a historical snapshot) but worth noting as an asymmetry.
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"""
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commit_time = cluster_commit_hours(repo_path, session_gap_hours=session_gap_hours)
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workplan_tasks = workplan_task_counts(repo_path)
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commit_time = cluster_commit_hours(
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repo_path, session_gap_hours=session_gap_hours, since=since, until=until
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)
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workplan_tasks = workplan_task_counts(repo_path, since=since, until=until)
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repo_size = repo_size_metrics(repo_path, extra_excludes=extra_excludes)
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usd = token_cost_usd(tokens_in, tokens_out, model=model, model_pricing=model_pricing)
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token_cost = TokenCost(tokens_in=tokens_in, tokens_out=tokens_out, usd=usd)
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