Implement Development Effort Calculator (WP-0010-T02)

src/target_revenue/effort_calculator.py implements Candidate A
(labor-cost-anchored, accepted T01): commit-timestamp session-gap
clustering for human interaction time, workplan/task-volume counts via
direct workplans/ directory parsing (no state-hub dependency, works
uniformly on any repo using this repo's own convention), file/line
counts with generated/vendored-path exclusion, and caller-supplied
token-cost pricing. estimate_target_basis() combines these and returns
a derivation dict (every input shown) plus a warnings list - never a
black-box dollar figure.

1-day manual-work floor, as requested: any raw commit-clustered
estimate below 1.0 day is floored and flagged with a warning that this
is very likely a measurement gap (commit-clustering is a floor
estimate by design) that should usually be compensated for by manual
override, not trusted at face value. A second, independent
sanity-check warning fires when finished-workplan/task volume is
substantial but the time estimate is still low, even above the floor -
demonstrated live against target-revenue's own history (7 finished
workplans, 57 tasks correctly flagged a 2.38-day estimate as
under-counted).

scripts/effort_calculator_cli.py: CLI wrapper printing JSON, following
the same offline-first, no-Phase-declaration pattern as
scripts/trf_onboard.py. tests/test_effort_calculator.py (15
deterministic tests, throwaway git repos/tmp_path fixtures) covers
commit clustering, workplan/task parsing, size-metric exclusion,
token-cost pricing, the floor-and-warning behavior, the sanity-check
warning, and an end-to-end smoke test. No new hard dependency.
This commit is contained in:
tegwick 2026-07-30 13:16:44 +02:00
parent 37ccee22ab
commit 9566e16a97
6 changed files with 720 additions and 2 deletions

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@ -82,7 +82,7 @@ The concept's §13 now defines a **Global Contingency Share Determination Rule**
| [TREV-WP-0007](workplans/TREV-WP-0007-degeneration-policy-and-canonical-profiles.md) | Degeneration policy + canonical monetization profile catalog — **finished**, all 4 tasks done. `trsl:policy:linear-longstop-v0` confirmed 2026-07-29 as the v1 norm for the first pilot cohort; `progress-paused-longstop-v1` named as the next iteration, not yet adopted |
| [TREV-WP-0008](workplans/TREV-WP-0008-governance-and-pilot-rollout.md) | Governance formalization + pilot rollout — active; T01T04 done. `info-tech-canon` dry-run onboarding routine exercised end-to-end 2026-07-29. **Org-wide TRSL license adoption executed 2026-07-30** across ~90 `coulomb`-org repos (`history/260730-TRSL-OrgWideLicenseRollout.md`) — a license-text adoption, not a Phase declaration. T05 (real Phase go-live gate) remains `todo` by design; no Phase exists yet for any repo |
| [TREV-WP-0009](workplans/TREV-WP-0009-target-revenue-control-plane.md) | Target Revenue Control Plane — interactive UI for the `binky` tenant, incl. interactive Development Credit entry creation (`specs/TargetRevenueControlPlaneConcept.md`) — active; **T01 accepted 2026-07-30** (four rights tiers confirmed; per-human sub-credentials at the Trust Service layer chosen over the concept's own simpler recommendation) — adds a real prerequisite: T02 extends WP-0006's finished auth layer before T03 (Control Plane backend) and T04 (interactive UI) can proceed |
| [TREV-WP-0010](workplans/TREV-WP-0010-development-effort-calculator.md) | Development Effort Calculator — turns human time/workplan-task volume/repo size/AI token cost into `target_basis` values feeding the framework's existing Initial Target formula (`specs/DevelopmentEffortCalculatorConcept.md`) — active; **T01 accepted 2026-07-30 (Candidate A, labor-cost-anchored)**; T02 (implementation) next. Split from TREV-WP-0009 2026-07-30 |
| [TREV-WP-0010](workplans/TREV-WP-0010-development-effort-calculator.md) | Development Effort Calculator — turns human time/workplan-task volume/repo size/AI token cost into `target_basis` values feeding the framework's existing Initial Target formula (`specs/DevelopmentEffortCalculatorConcept.md`) — active; T01 (Candidate A) and **T02 (implementation, `src/target_revenue/effort_calculator.py`, incl. a 1-day manual-work floor with warning) done**; T03 (apply to real candidates) next |
Hub index: [`WORK-RECORDS.md`](WORK-RECORDS.md) · brief: [`.custodian-brief.md`](.custodian-brief.md)

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@ -0,0 +1,57 @@
#!/usr/bin/env python3
"""CLI wrapper for target_revenue.effort_calculator (WP-0010-T02).
Prints a proposed `phase.target_basis` estimate for a repo, with full
derivation and warnings, as JSON. Token counts are caller-supplied (e.g.
pulled from the state hub's `get_token_summary` beforehand) rather than
fetched here this script has no MCP client of its own, matching the
offline-first design of the rest of this library.
Does not select a Target Multiple and does not register anything with
the hosted Trust Service this is an estimation aid, not a Phase
declaration tool (that remains `scripts/trf_onboard.py`).
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import argparse
import dataclasses
import json
import sys
from pathlib import Path
REPO_ROOT = Path(__file__).resolve().parents[1]
sys.path.insert(0, str(REPO_ROOT / "src"))
from target_revenue import effort_calculator as ec # noqa: E402
def main(argv: list[str] | None = None) -> None:
parser = argparse.ArgumentParser(description=__doc__)
parser.add_argument("repo_path", help="path to the repo to estimate effort for")
parser.add_argument("--daily-rate", type=float, required=True)
parser.add_argument("--tokens-in", type=int, default=0)
parser.add_argument("--tokens-out", type=int, default=0)
parser.add_argument("--model", default="default")
parser.add_argument("--session-gap-hours", type=float, default=ec.DEFAULT_SESSION_GAP_HOURS)
parser.add_argument("--hours-per-day", type=float, default=ec.DEFAULT_HOURS_PER_DAY)
args = parser.parse_args(argv)
result = ec.calculate_target_basis(
args.repo_path,
daily_rate=args.daily_rate,
tokens_in=args.tokens_in,
tokens_out=args.tokens_out,
model=args.model,
session_gap_hours=args.session_gap_hours,
hours_per_day=args.hours_per_day,
)
output = dataclasses.asdict(result)
print(json.dumps(output, indent=2))
if result.warnings:
print(f"\n{len(result.warnings)} warning(s) — see 'warnings' above.", file=sys.stderr)
if __name__ == "__main__":
main()

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@ -67,6 +67,18 @@ across every repo without depending on hub coverage — explicitly a
*floor* estimate (real effort is almost certainly higher), not a
best-effort true count.
**Implemented 2026-07-30** (`workplans/TREV-WP-0010-development-effort-calculator.md`
T02, `src/target_revenue/effort_calculator.py`), including a maintainer-
requested **1-day manual-work floor**: any raw commit-clustered estimate
below one day is floored to one day and flagged with a warning explaining
this is very likely a measurement gap, not a true "under a day" fact —
and should usually be compensated for by a manual override of
`estimated_effort_days` rather than trusted at face value. A second,
independent sanity-check warning fires whenever a repo's finished-
workplan/task volume (§2b) is substantial but the raw time estimate is
still low, catching cases above the 1-day floor that still look
implausible.
### 2b. Workplan/task volume — complexity index component
**What:** number and status distribution of workplans and tasks

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@ -0,0 +1,361 @@
"""Development Effort Calculator (WP-0010-T02).
Implements Candidate A (labor-cost-anchored), accepted 2026-07-30
(`workplans/TREV-WP-0010-development-effort-calculator.md` T01,
`specs/DevelopmentEffortCalculatorConcept.md` §3): human interaction time
drives `estimated_effort_days`/`daily_rate` directly; AI token cost
becomes `approved_direct_costs`; workplan/task-volume and repo-size
metrics are used only as a sanity check on the human-time estimate, never
their own dollar figure. This module produces `target_basis` values
(`specs/PhaseManifestSpecification.md`) feeding the framework's existing
Initial Target formula it does not compute an Initial Target itself,
and it never chooses a Target Multiple (that remains a human judgment
call, concept §4).
Every function here is pure or reads only from the local filesystem/git
history no network calls, no dependency on the state hub being
reachable, consistent with the offline-first design already established
elsewhere in this library (`fold.py`, `validation.py`).
**1-day manual-work floor (explicit, not silent):** commit-timestamp
clustering is, by the concept document's own framing, a floor estimate —
it systematically undercounts real effort (thinking/reading time, work
that never produced a commit). Any raw estimate below one day is treated
as a signal the measurement itself is incomplete, not as a true "this took
under a day" fact. `estimate_target_basis` floors the reported value to
`MANUAL_EFFORT_FLOOR_DAYS` in that case and attaches a prominent warning
recommending a manual override the floor is a safe fallback so the
Phase Manifest never carries an implausibly small figure, not a
replacement for a human's own judgment about the real effort involved.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import re
import subprocess
from dataclasses import dataclass, field
from pathlib import Path
from typing import Any
MANUAL_EFFORT_FLOOR_DAYS = 1.0
DEFAULT_SESSION_GAP_HOURS = 2.0
DEFAULT_HOURS_PER_DAY = 8.0
SINGLE_COMMIT_SESSION_MINUTES = 15.0
# v0 placeholder pricing — flagged for refinement once real usage data
# exists; not authoritative, callers may override via `model_pricing`.
DEFAULT_MODEL_PRICING_USD_PER_TOKEN: dict[str, dict[str, float]] = {
"default": {"input": 3e-6, "output": 15e-6},
}
# Paths that inflate the repo-size signal without reflecting real
# authored effort (specs/DevelopmentEffortCalculatorConcept.md §2c's
# flagged distortion). Matched against any path component.
GENERATED_VENDORED_EXCLUDES = frozenset(
{
"node_modules", ".venv", "venv", "__pycache__", ".git",
"dist", "build", ".pytest_cache", "vendor", "site-packages",
".egg-info", ".mypy_cache", ".ruff_cache",
}
)
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class CommitTimeEstimate:
"""Result of session-gap clustering over a repo's commit timestamps."""
raw_hours: float
session_count: int
commit_count: int
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class WorkplanTaskCounts:
"""Workplan/task volume, used only as a sanity-check signal (§2b)."""
finished_workplans: int
total_tasks: int
finished_tasks: int
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class RepoSizeMetrics:
"""File/line counts, used only as a sanity-check signal (§2c)."""
file_count: int
line_count: int
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class TokenCost:
"""AI token cost — the strongest, least speculative input (§2d)."""
tokens_in: int
tokens_out: int
usd: float
@dataclass(frozen=True)
class TargetBasisEstimate:
"""Proposed `phase.target_basis` values, with visible derivation.
`warnings` and `derivation` exist so the output is never a black-box
dollar figure per `specs/TargetRevenueLicenseConcept.md` §4.6's
"transparent, non-gameable" goal, showing which inputs produced which
numbers is part of this calculator's job, not an optional extra.
"""
estimated_effort_days: float
daily_rate: float
approved_direct_costs: float
warnings: list[str] = field(default_factory=list)
derivation: dict[str, Any] = field(default_factory=dict)
def cluster_commit_hours(
repo_path: str | Path, session_gap_hours: float = DEFAULT_SESSION_GAP_HOURS
) -> CommitTimeEstimate:
"""Group commit timestamps into sessions (gap-based clustering).
A session is a run of commits with no gap larger than
`session_gap_hours` between consecutive commits. Each session
contributes its own wall-clock span; a session of a single commit
(span zero) contributes a fixed `SINGLE_COMMIT_SESSION_MINUTES` floor,
since a lone commit still took some real, non-zero time to produce.
This is an explicit floor estimate (concept §2a), not a true count
time spent reading, thinking, or working without committing is
invisible to it by construction.
"""
result = subprocess.run(
["git", "-C", str(repo_path), "log", "--all", "--format=%at"],
capture_output=True, text=True, check=True,
)
timestamps = sorted(int(line) for line in result.stdout.splitlines() if line.strip())
if not timestamps:
return CommitTimeEstimate(raw_hours=0.0, session_count=0, commit_count=0)
gap_seconds = session_gap_hours * 3600
sessions: list[tuple[int, int]] = []
session_start = timestamps[0]
session_end = timestamps[0]
for ts in timestamps[1:]:
if ts - session_end > gap_seconds:
sessions.append((session_start, session_end))
session_start = ts
session_end = ts
sessions.append((session_start, session_end))
total_hours = 0.0
for start, end in sessions:
span_hours = (end - start) / 3600
if span_hours <= 0:
span_hours = SINGLE_COMMIT_SESSION_MINUTES / 60
total_hours += span_hours
return CommitTimeEstimate(
raw_hours=total_hours, session_count=len(sessions), commit_count=len(timestamps)
)
_TASK_BLOCK_RE = re.compile(r"```task\n(.*?)\n```", re.DOTALL)
_FRONTMATTER_RE = re.compile(r"^---\n(.*?)\n---", re.DOTALL)
_STATUS_FIELD_RE = re.compile(r'^status:\s*"?([^"\n]+)"?\s*$', re.MULTILINE)
def workplan_task_counts(repo_path: str | Path) -> WorkplanTaskCounts:
"""Count finished workplans and tasks under `<repo>/workplans/`.
Follows this repo's own workplan convention (YAML-ish frontmatter with
a `status:` field, ```task fenced blocks each with their own
`status:` line) rather than requiring state-hub connectivity works
on any repo using this convention, degrades to zero (not an error) for
repos with no `workplans/` directory at all.
"""
workplans_dir = Path(repo_path) / "workplans"
if not workplans_dir.is_dir():
return WorkplanTaskCounts(finished_workplans=0, total_tasks=0, finished_tasks=0)
finished_workplans = 0
total_tasks = 0
finished_tasks = 0
for md_file in sorted(workplans_dir.glob("*.md")):
try:
text = md_file.read_text(encoding="utf-8", errors="ignore")
except OSError:
continue
frontmatter_match = _FRONTMATTER_RE.match(text)
if frontmatter_match:
status_match = _STATUS_FIELD_RE.search(frontmatter_match.group(1))
if status_match and status_match.group(1).strip() == "finished":
finished_workplans += 1
for block in _TASK_BLOCK_RE.findall(text):
total_tasks += 1
task_status_match = _STATUS_FIELD_RE.search(block)
if task_status_match and task_status_match.group(1).strip() == "done":
finished_tasks += 1
return WorkplanTaskCounts(
finished_workplans=finished_workplans,
total_tasks=total_tasks,
finished_tasks=finished_tasks,
)
def repo_size_metrics(
repo_path: str | Path, extra_excludes: frozenset[str] = frozenset()
) -> RepoSizeMetrics:
"""File/line counts, excluding generated/vendored/dependency paths.
Exclusion is by path-component membership (any directory named
`node_modules`, `.venv`, etc. anywhere in a file's path is skipped
entirely), not just top-level this catches nested vendored trees,
not only ones at the repo root.
"""
excludes = GENERATED_VENDORED_EXCLUDES | extra_excludes
file_count = 0
line_count = 0
for path in Path(repo_path).rglob("*"):
if not path.is_file():
continue
if any(part in excludes for part in path.parts):
continue
file_count += 1
try:
with open(path, "rb") as f:
line_count += sum(1 for _ in f)
except OSError:
continue
return RepoSizeMetrics(file_count=file_count, line_count=line_count)
def token_cost_usd(
tokens_in: int,
tokens_out: int,
model: str = "default",
model_pricing: dict[str, dict[str, float]] | None = None,
) -> float:
"""AI token cost in USD for the given token counts and model.
`model_pricing` defaults to `DEFAULT_MODEL_PRICING_USD_PER_TOKEN` a
v0 placeholder table, not authoritative pricing; callers with real
per-model rates should pass their own table. Unknown models fall back
to `"default"` rather than raising, since the exact model used is a
`get_token_summary` reporting detail this module has no way to
validate against a live price list.
"""
pricing_table = model_pricing or DEFAULT_MODEL_PRICING_USD_PER_TOKEN
pricing = pricing_table.get(model, pricing_table["default"])
return tokens_in * pricing["input"] + tokens_out * pricing["output"]
def estimate_target_basis(
*,
commit_time: CommitTimeEstimate,
workplan_tasks: WorkplanTaskCounts,
repo_size: RepoSizeMetrics,
token_cost: TokenCost,
daily_rate: float,
hours_per_day: float = DEFAULT_HOURS_PER_DAY,
) -> TargetBasisEstimate:
"""Combine the four metric families into proposed `target_basis` values.
Candidate A (labor-cost-anchored): `estimated_effort_days` comes
directly from `commit_time`; `approved_direct_costs` comes directly
from `token_cost`; `workplan_tasks`/`repo_size` never produce their
own dollar figure they only trigger sanity-check warnings when they
suggest the time estimate is implausibly low for the amount of
finished, real work on record.
"""
warnings: list[str] = []
derivation: dict[str, Any] = {}
raw_effort_days = commit_time.raw_hours / hours_per_day
derivation["raw_commit_clustered_hours"] = round(commit_time.raw_hours, 3)
derivation["raw_commit_clustered_days"] = round(raw_effort_days, 3)
derivation["sessions"] = commit_time.session_count
derivation["commits"] = commit_time.commit_count
complexity_units_workplans = (
workplan_tasks.finished_workplans * 3 + workplan_tasks.finished_tasks * 1
)
derivation["finished_workplans"] = workplan_tasks.finished_workplans
derivation["finished_tasks"] = workplan_tasks.finished_tasks
derivation["complexity_units_workplans"] = complexity_units_workplans
derivation["file_count"] = repo_size.file_count
derivation["line_count"] = repo_size.line_count
effort_days = raw_effort_days
if effort_days < MANUAL_EFFORT_FLOOR_DAYS:
warnings.append(
f"Raw commit-clustered estimate was {raw_effort_days:.3f} day(s), below the "
f"{MANUAL_EFFORT_FLOOR_DAYS:.1f}-day floor. Floored to "
f"{MANUAL_EFFORT_FLOOR_DAYS:.1f} day(s) rather than reporting an implausibly "
"small figure. This is very likely a measurement gap — commit-timestamp "
"clustering is a floor estimate by design "
"(specs/DevelopmentEffortCalculatorConcept.md §2a), not a true reflection of "
"effort — and should usually be compensated for by a manual override of "
"estimated_effort_days rather than trusting this floored value at face value."
)
effort_days = MANUAL_EFFORT_FLOOR_DAYS
# Sanity-check signal (§2b/§2c): a real, non-trivial finished-work
# history alongside a still-low time estimate is itself evidence the
# time input is under-counting, independent of the floor above.
if complexity_units_workplans >= 15 and raw_effort_days < MANUAL_EFFORT_FLOOR_DAYS * 3:
warnings.append(
f"{workplan_tasks.finished_workplans} finished workplan(s) and "
f"{workplan_tasks.finished_tasks} finished task(s) on record suggest more real "
f"effort than the {raw_effort_days:.2f}-day raw time estimate reflects — treat "
"the time estimate as under-counted and consider a manual override."
)
derivation["approved_direct_costs_usd"] = round(token_cost.usd, 2)
derivation["tokens_in"] = token_cost.tokens_in
derivation["tokens_out"] = token_cost.tokens_out
return TargetBasisEstimate(
estimated_effort_days=round(effort_days, 3),
daily_rate=daily_rate,
approved_direct_costs=round(token_cost.usd, 2),
warnings=warnings,
derivation=derivation,
)
def calculate_target_basis(
repo_path: str | Path,
daily_rate: float,
tokens_in: int = 0,
tokens_out: int = 0,
model: str = "default",
session_gap_hours: float = DEFAULT_SESSION_GAP_HOURS,
hours_per_day: float = DEFAULT_HOURS_PER_DAY,
extra_excludes: frozenset[str] = frozenset(),
model_pricing: dict[str, dict[str, float]] | None = None,
) -> TargetBasisEstimate:
"""End-to-end convenience entry point: repo path + token counts in,
a proposed `target_basis` estimate (with warnings and derivation) out.
`tokens_in`/`tokens_out` are caller-supplied (e.g. from the state
hub's `get_token_summary`) rather than fetched here, since this
module has no MCP/network client of its own keeping it offline-first
like the rest of this library.
"""
commit_time = cluster_commit_hours(repo_path, session_gap_hours=session_gap_hours)
workplan_tasks = workplan_task_counts(repo_path)
repo_size = repo_size_metrics(repo_path, extra_excludes=extra_excludes)
usd = token_cost_usd(tokens_in, tokens_out, model=model, model_pricing=model_pricing)
token_cost = TokenCost(tokens_in=tokens_in, tokens_out=tokens_out, usd=usd)
return estimate_target_basis(
commit_time=commit_time,
workplan_tasks=workplan_tasks,
repo_size=repo_size,
token_cost=token_cost,
daily_rate=daily_rate,
hours_per_day=hours_per_day,
)

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"""Tests for target_revenue.effort_calculator (WP-0010-T02).
Pure/offline: builds throwaway git repos and directory fixtures under
tmp_path rather than depending on any real repo's current state, so
these tests stay deterministic regardless of what target-revenue's own
history looks like later.
"""
from __future__ import annotations
import subprocess
from pathlib import Path
import pytest
from target_revenue import effort_calculator as ec
def _git(repo: Path, *args: str, env: dict | None = None) -> None:
subprocess.run(["git", "-C", str(repo), *args], check=True, capture_output=True, env=env)
def _commit(repo: Path, message: str, epoch_seconds: int) -> None:
(repo / "file.txt").write_text(message)
_git(repo, "add", "file.txt")
date = f"{epoch_seconds} +0000"
env = {
"GIT_AUTHOR_DATE": date,
"GIT_COMMITTER_DATE": date,
"GIT_AUTHOR_NAME": "test",
"GIT_AUTHOR_EMAIL": "test@example.com",
"GIT_COMMITTER_NAME": "test",
"GIT_COMMITTER_EMAIL": "test@example.com",
}
import os
full_env = {**os.environ, **env}
_git(repo, "commit", "-q", "-m", message, env=full_env)
@pytest.fixture()
def git_repo(tmp_path):
repo = tmp_path / "repo"
repo.mkdir()
_git(repo, "init", "-q", "-b", "main")
return repo
# --- cluster_commit_hours ----------------------------------------------
def test_cluster_commit_hours_empty_repo_no_commits(git_repo):
result = ec.cluster_commit_hours(git_repo)
assert result == ec.CommitTimeEstimate(raw_hours=0.0, session_count=0, commit_count=0)
def test_cluster_commit_hours_single_commit_uses_floor(git_repo):
_commit(git_repo, "init", 1_000_000_000)
result = ec.cluster_commit_hours(git_repo)
assert result.commit_count == 1
assert result.session_count == 1
assert result.raw_hours == pytest.approx(ec.SINGLE_COMMIT_SESSION_MINUTES / 60)
def test_cluster_commit_hours_one_session_spans_actual_time(git_repo):
base = 1_000_000_000
_commit(git_repo, "c1", base)
_commit(git_repo, "c2", base + 3600) # 1 hour later, same session
result = ec.cluster_commit_hours(git_repo, session_gap_hours=2.0)
assert result.session_count == 1
assert result.commit_count == 2
assert result.raw_hours == pytest.approx(1.0)
def test_cluster_commit_hours_gap_splits_into_two_sessions(git_repo):
base = 1_000_000_000
_commit(git_repo, "c1", base)
_commit(git_repo, "c2", base + 3 * 3600) # 3 hours later, gap > 2h default
result = ec.cluster_commit_hours(git_repo, session_gap_hours=2.0)
assert result.session_count == 2
assert result.commit_count == 2
# Both are single-commit sessions -> two floor contributions.
assert result.raw_hours == pytest.approx(2 * ec.SINGLE_COMMIT_SESSION_MINUTES / 60)
# --- workplan_task_counts ------------------------------------------------
def test_workplan_task_counts_no_workplans_dir(tmp_path):
result = ec.workplan_task_counts(tmp_path)
assert result == ec.WorkplanTaskCounts(0, 0, 0)
def test_workplan_task_counts_counts_finished_workplans_and_tasks(tmp_path):
workplans = tmp_path / "workplans"
workplans.mkdir()
(workplans / "WP-0001.md").write_text(
"""---
id: WP-0001
status: finished
---
```task
id: WP-0001-T01
status: done
```
```task
id: WP-0001-T02
status: todo
```
"""
)
(workplans / "WP-0002.md").write_text(
"""---
id: WP-0002
status: active
---
```task
id: WP-0002-T01
status: done
```
"""
)
result = ec.workplan_task_counts(tmp_path)
assert result.finished_workplans == 1
assert result.total_tasks == 3
assert result.finished_tasks == 2
# --- repo_size_metrics ----------------------------------------------------
def test_repo_size_metrics_counts_files_and_lines(tmp_path):
(tmp_path / "a.py").write_text("line1\nline2\nline3\n")
(tmp_path / "b.py").write_text("line1\n")
result = ec.repo_size_metrics(tmp_path)
assert result.file_count == 2
assert result.line_count == 4
def test_repo_size_metrics_excludes_vendored_paths(tmp_path):
(tmp_path / "a.py").write_text("line1\n")
vendored = tmp_path / "node_modules" / "pkg"
vendored.mkdir(parents=True)
(vendored / "big.js").write_text("x\n" * 1000)
result = ec.repo_size_metrics(tmp_path)
assert result.file_count == 1
assert result.line_count == 1
# --- token_cost_usd --------------------------------------------------------
def test_token_cost_usd_default_pricing():
cost = ec.token_cost_usd(1_000_000, 1_000_000)
expected = 1_000_000 * 3e-6 + 1_000_000 * 15e-6
assert cost == pytest.approx(expected)
def test_token_cost_usd_unknown_model_falls_back_to_default():
cost_unknown = ec.token_cost_usd(1000, 1000, model="some-unlisted-model")
cost_default = ec.token_cost_usd(1000, 1000, model="default")
assert cost_unknown == cost_default
# --- estimate_target_basis: the 1-day floor and warning -------------------
def test_low_raw_estimate_triggers_floor_and_warning():
commit_time = ec.CommitTimeEstimate(raw_hours=0.5, session_count=1, commit_count=1)
result = ec.estimate_target_basis(
commit_time=commit_time,
workplan_tasks=ec.WorkplanTaskCounts(0, 0, 0),
repo_size=ec.RepoSizeMetrics(1, 10),
token_cost=ec.TokenCost(0, 0, 0.0),
daily_rate=1000.0,
)
assert result.estimated_effort_days == ec.MANUAL_EFFORT_FLOOR_DAYS
assert any("floor" in w.lower() for w in result.warnings)
assert any("manual override" in w.lower() for w in result.warnings)
assert result.derivation["raw_commit_clustered_days"] < ec.MANUAL_EFFORT_FLOOR_DAYS
def test_sufficient_raw_estimate_no_floor_warning():
commit_time = ec.CommitTimeEstimate(
raw_hours=ec.DEFAULT_HOURS_PER_DAY * 5, session_count=5, commit_count=20
)
result = ec.estimate_target_basis(
commit_time=commit_time,
workplan_tasks=ec.WorkplanTaskCounts(0, 0, 0),
repo_size=ec.RepoSizeMetrics(10, 500),
token_cost=ec.TokenCost(0, 0, 0.0),
daily_rate=1000.0,
)
assert result.estimated_effort_days == pytest.approx(5.0)
assert not any("floor" in w.lower() for w in result.warnings)
def test_high_workplan_volume_with_low_time_triggers_sanity_warning():
commit_time = ec.CommitTimeEstimate(raw_hours=4.0, session_count=1, commit_count=2)
result = ec.estimate_target_basis(
commit_time=commit_time,
workplan_tasks=ec.WorkplanTaskCounts(finished_workplans=10, total_tasks=50, finished_tasks=40),
repo_size=ec.RepoSizeMetrics(200, 20000),
token_cost=ec.TokenCost(0, 0, 0.0),
daily_rate=1000.0,
)
assert any("under-counted" in w.lower() for w in result.warnings)
def test_derivation_shows_its_work():
commit_time = ec.CommitTimeEstimate(raw_hours=16.0, session_count=2, commit_count=10)
result = ec.estimate_target_basis(
commit_time=commit_time,
workplan_tasks=ec.WorkplanTaskCounts(2, 5, 3),
repo_size=ec.RepoSizeMetrics(50, 3000),
token_cost=ec.TokenCost(tokens_in=100, tokens_out=200, usd=1.23),
daily_rate=800.0,
)
assert result.derivation["commits"] == 10
assert result.derivation["sessions"] == 2
assert result.derivation["finished_workplans"] == 2
assert result.derivation["file_count"] == 50
assert result.derivation["line_count"] == 3000
assert result.derivation["tokens_in"] == 100
assert result.approved_direct_costs == 1.23
assert result.daily_rate == 800.0
# --- calculate_target_basis: end-to-end -----------------------------------
def test_calculate_target_basis_end_to_end(git_repo):
base = 1_000_000_000
_commit(git_repo, "c1", base)
_commit(git_repo, "c2", base + ec.DEFAULT_HOURS_PER_DAY * 3 * 3600)
result = ec.calculate_target_basis(
git_repo, daily_rate=1000.0, tokens_in=1000, tokens_out=1000
)
assert result.daily_rate == 1000.0
assert result.approved_direct_costs == pytest.approx(
ec.token_cost_usd(1000, 1000), abs=0.01
)
assert isinstance(result.estimated_effort_days, float)

View file

@ -80,7 +80,7 @@ this formula, not Candidate B or a hybrid.
```task
id: TREV-WP-0010-T02
status: todo
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "b5fb46ea-b737-495f-82b8-5e10f0032cb5"
```
@ -107,6 +107,48 @@ black-box dollar figure with no visible derivation would undermine the
"transparent, non-gameable" goal (`specs/TargetRevenueLicenseConcept.md`
§4.6) this whole framework is built around.
**Result:** `src/target_revenue/effort_calculator.py` implemented, pure/
offline (no network or state-hub dependency — `list_tasks`/`list_workplans`
was superseded by direct `workplans/` directory parsing so the module
works uniformly on any repo using this repo's own workplan convention,
without requiring hub connectivity). `cluster_commit_hours()` does
session-gap clustering over `git log --all --format=%at`, with a 15-minute
floor for single-commit sessions. `workplan_task_counts()` parses
frontmatter `status:` fields and this repo's triple-backtick task-block
convention. `repo_size_metrics()`
excludes generated/vendored path components
(`node_modules`, `.venv`, `__pycache__`, etc.). `token_cost_usd()` takes
caller-supplied token counts (e.g. from `get_token_summary`) rather than
fetching them itself. `estimate_target_basis()` combines these per
Candidate A and returns a `TargetBasisEstimate` with a `derivation` dict
(showing every input value) and a `warnings` list.
**1-day manual-work floor, as requested:** any raw commit-clustered
estimate below `MANUAL_EFFORT_FLOOR_DAYS = 1.0` is floored to 1.0 day
(never reported smaller) and flagged with an explicit warning explaining
this is very likely a measurement gap — commit-clustering is a floor
estimate by design — and should usually be compensated for by a manual
override rather than trusted at face value. A second, independent
sanity-check warning fires when a repo's finished-workplan/task volume is
substantial but the raw time estimate is still low, catching the case
where the floor itself wasn't triggered but the estimate still looks
implausible (demonstrated live: running the calculator against
`target-revenue`'s own history — 7 finished workplans, 57 finished
tasks — correctly flagged its 2.38-day raw estimate as under-counted,
above the 1-day floor but still clearly too low for that much finished
work).
`scripts/effort_calculator_cli.py` — a CLI wrapper printing the estimate
as JSON, following the same offline-first, no-Phase-declaration pattern
as `scripts/trf_onboard.py`. `tests/test_effort_calculator.py` (15 tests,
deterministic — builds throwaway git repos and directory fixtures under
`tmp_path` rather than depending on any real repo's changing state)
covers commit clustering (empty/single-commit/multi-session), workplan/
task parsing, size-metric exclusion, token-cost pricing, the floor-and-
warning behavior, the independent sanity-check warning, and an
end-to-end smoke test. Full suite: 79 passing offline (64 + 15 new), no
new hard dependency (stdlib + existing `pathlib`/`subprocess`/`re` only).
## Apply calculator to real candidate repos
```task