Calibration v0.7: AR market concentration measured (GFDD top-10 57-80 %), AR adoption growth narrowed (1.36-1.65) by OWID/Microsoft relative signal
AR k 2.00 -> 2.18; 51/51 targets in range, 43 measured. Readings R1-R4, cross-border, world and export verdicts unchanged. dematerialization.md regenerated (was stale). ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T06 stays wait for a firm-level second AR point and a current S&P/BYMA constituent file. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 193986@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: 585bfbea-320e-47b3-8c0e-bc1513a53307
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# Calibration of GADM-0.4 to measured data
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**Status:** v0.6 (2026-10-14): EU market concentration measured (STOXX
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**Status:** v0.7 (2026-10-19): Argentina's market concentration measured
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(top-10 share of listed market value 57–80 %, World Bank GFDD 2012–2017), and
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its adoption growth narrowed to 1.36–1.65. The growth range comes from the
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relative AR/US growth of people-level generative-AI use (still a prior, since
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it is not a firm series). AR k is now 2.18; 51 of 51 targets in range, 43
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measured. Readings R1–R4 and the world and export verdicts are unchanged
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(§ 3.2). Earlier: v0.6 (2026-10-14): EU market concentration measured (STOXX
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Europe 600 top-10 about 21 %), China (J4) added; 50 of 50 targets in range,
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42 measured. Readings R1–R4 unchanged. Earlier: v0.5 (2026-10-13). ASSEMBLY-WP-0013, then the 2026-10-13 review
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(§ 3.1): 36 of 40 targets measured, all 40 inside their ranges after fitting.
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@ -122,7 +128,7 @@ Findings:
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growth anywhere, and B3 fits best (US z 0.0, AR 0.0, EU +0.5).
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2. **Automation.** The measured US labour-share decline is slower than the
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default automation strength implies. Fitted `auto` is 0.26 instead of 0.6.
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3. **Domination starts at or above the floor:** US 0.68, EU 0.72, AR 0.75
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3. **Domination starts at or above the floor:** US 0.68, EU 0.72, AR 0.75 (0.77 in v0.7)
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(floor 0.70). The large contributions are measured: frontier-model spend
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is 88 % with three firms, and search is 85–94 % with one.
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@ -132,6 +138,38 @@ Findings:
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Still priors: market concentration Pm for the EU and AR, and AR adoption
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*growth* (only one level point). They stay in ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T06.
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(EU Pm measured in v0.6, AR Pm in v0.7; see § 3.2.)
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### 3.2 Calibration v0.7: Argentina (2026-10-19)
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- **Pm (measured, dated):** top-10 share of listed market value from the World
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Bank GFDD ([FRED DDAM02ARA156NWDB](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDAM02ARA156NWDB),
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100 − share outside the top 10): 68.5 / 74.1 / 72.4 / 63.3 / 57.4 / 80.4 %
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for 2012–2017. Target range 0.55–0.80. It is the same operator family as the
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EU (top 10 of the STOXX 600, 21 %). Caveats:
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- The series ends in 2017 and swings from year to year.
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- Argentina's listed market is narrow, so the value is an upper bound for
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economy-wide concentration.
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- Firms listed only abroad (MercadoLibre) are missing.
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- **K_Ω growth (prior, narrowed):** there is no firm-level series for
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Argentina. Microsoft AI Diffusion (via Our World in Data) gives the
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people-level genAI user share:
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- AR: 17.8 → 21.9 % over 0.75 y, 1.32 per year.
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- US: 26.3 → 31.3 %, 1.26 per year.
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The ratio is 1.05. Applied to the US firm range (1.3–1.6), it gives
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1.36–1.68, capped at the earlier prior to 1.36–1.65.
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- **Fit:** k 2.00 → 2.18, t* 1.1 → 1.0 y; 51 of 51 targets in range, 43 of 43
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measured. Anchor verdict for AR: B3 z −0.2, B4 z +0.5 (was 0.0 / +0.9);
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B1 and B2 still cannot reach the growth.
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- **Readings:** the domination start for AR moves from 0.75 to 0.77. No
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verdict in `calibrated_readings.md`, `cross_border.md`, `world_scenarios.md`
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or `exports.md` changes; only numbers within rows moved, by about 0.01–0.03.
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`results/dematerialization.md` was regenerated too. Its earlier committed
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version was stale, and it differs also without this change.
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- **Still open:** a firm-level second AR adoption point (the next Google/IDB
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wave, or MinCyT ENDEI wave 4). A current S&P/BYMA General constituent file
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would replace the dated GFDD range.
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## 4. Readings from the calibrated start (T04)
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@ -220,16 +220,22 @@
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"op": "mobile OS HHI (Android 87.3, iOS 12.7 %) = 0.78; StatCounter Global Stats, Sept 2026, retrieved 2026-10-13 (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
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},
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"Ko_ratio_1y": {
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"lo": 1.25,
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"lo": 1.36,
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"hi": 1.65,
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"basis": "prior",
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"op": "no AR series yet; assumed within the US/EU/DE observed range (1.31-1.48)"
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"op": "no AR firm series; relative signal from people-level genAI use (Microsoft AI Diffusion via Our World in Data, ai_user_share): AR 17.8 -> 21.9 % over 0.75 y (1.32 per year) vs. US 26.3 -> 31.3 % (1.26), ratio 1.05; applied to the US firm range 1.3-1.6 gives 1.36-1.68, capped at the earlier prior 1.65 (ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T06, 2026-10-19)"
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},
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"E": {
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"lo": 0.15,
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"hi": 0.32,
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"basis": "measured",
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"op": "Planetary Health Check 2025 (Stockholm Resilience Centre / PIK): 7 of 9 boundaries breached; E = share still in the safe zone = 2/9 = 0.22 (global) (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-13-review.md)"
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},
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"Pm": {
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"lo": 0.55,
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"hi": 0.8,
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"basis": "measured",
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"op": "top-10 share of listed market value, World Bank GFDD via FRED DDAM02ARA156NWDB (100 - value outside top 10): 57-80 % over 2012-2017; same operator family as the EU (STOXX 600 top-10, 21 %); dated (series ends 2017), volatile, excludes firms listed only abroad (ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T06, 2026-10-19)"
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}
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},
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"CN": {
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@ -35,14 +35,14 @@ already contains today's permissiveness).
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| Regime | Loop | K_Ω t5 / t25 / peak | Ȳ 0–25 | VFAC t100 | G | A | P t0 → t100 | floors broken |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| J1 | off | 0.13 / 0.14 / 0.14 | 0.219 | 0.342 | 0.41 | 0.52 | 0.75 → 0.71 | P |
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| J1 | on | 0.14 / 0.18 / 0.18 | 0.225 | 0.337 | 0.41 | 0.51 | 0.75 → 0.72 | P |
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| J2 | off | 0.29 / 0.31 / 0.34 | 0.256 | 0.229 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.75 → 0.86 | P |
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| J2 | on | 0.26 / 0.16 / 0.27 | 0.226 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.75 → 0.85 | P |
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| J3 | off | 0.25 / 0.27 / 0.29 | 0.243 | 0.220 | 0.33 | 0.26 | 0.75 → 0.89 | P |
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| J3 | on | 0.23 / 0.13 / 0.23 | 0.214 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.75 → 0.88 | P |
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| J4 | off | 0.25 / 0.28 / 0.30 | 0.249 | 0.243 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 0.75 → 0.86 | P |
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| J4 | on | 0.25 / 0.24 / 0.28 | 0.242 | 0.251 | 0.35 | 0.37 | 0.75 → 0.85 | P |
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| J1 | off | 0.14 / 0.15 / 0.16 | 0.220 | 0.334 | 0.40 | 0.52 | 0.77 → 0.73 | P |
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| J1 | on | 0.15 / 0.19 / 0.19 | 0.226 | 0.330 | 0.40 | 0.50 | 0.77 → 0.74 | P |
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| J2 | off | 0.31 / 0.33 / 0.36 | 0.262 | 0.223 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.77 → 0.87 | P |
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| J2 | on | 0.28 / 0.17 / 0.29 | 0.228 | 0.249 | 0.36 | 0.33 | 0.77 → 0.85 | P |
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| J3 | off | 0.27 / 0.29 / 0.31 | 0.248 | 0.214 | 0.33 | 0.25 | 0.77 → 0.89 | P |
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| J3 | on | 0.24 / 0.14 / 0.25 | 0.216 | 0.238 | 0.35 | 0.32 | 0.77 → 0.88 | P |
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| J4 | off | 0.27 / 0.30 / 0.32 | 0.254 | 0.237 | 0.34 | 0.34 | 0.77 → 0.87 | P |
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| J4 | on | 0.27 / 0.25 / 0.30 | 0.246 | 0.246 | 0.35 | 0.36 | 0.77 → 0.86 | P |
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## Readings check
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@ -50,4 +50,4 @@ already contains today's permissiveness).
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| US | holds | **fails** | holds (-0.074, +0.041) | yes |
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| EU | holds | holds | holds (-0.071, +0.025) | yes |
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| AR | holds | **fails** | holds (-0.071, +0.037) | yes |
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| AR | holds | **fails** | holds (-0.074, +0.037) | yes |
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@ -1,56 +1,59 @@
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{
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"AR": {
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"init": {
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"As": 0.3933826396488501,
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"Aw": 0.40511492207416233,
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"Cch": 0.4273843968793827,
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"Cd": 0.3587407755911709,
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"Cs": 0.5221045404056308,
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"Cw": 0.5527863221920585,
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"Dch": 0.4324721146671006,
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"Dd": 0.40208384609169734,
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"Ds": 0.5381858106675497,
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"Dw": 0.5432637495981915,
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"E": 0.23490109284472976,
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"F": 0.40078098442686216,
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"G": 0.3939066247514239,
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"Gs": 0.3691475006850279,
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"Gw": 0.4021611562408701,
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"Ko": 0.11020893023626183,
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"Kp": 0.48265381553022696,
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"As": 0.3938570711520698,
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"Aw": 0.40559646823699275,
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"Cch": 0.42504282577807234,
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"Cd": 0.3621405415410378,
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"Cs": 0.5244293617815503,
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"Cw": 0.552567914885571,
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"Dch": 0.42977585384571104,
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"Dd": 0.40197548698200525,
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"Ds": 0.5392336179998232,
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"Dw": 0.5438325080011251,
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"E": 0.23490682775483795,
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"F": 0.4007188486017007,
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"G": 0.38987596871702257,
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"Gs": 0.36488871384030624,
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"Gw": 0.3982065684804245,
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"Ko": 0.11018170696539106,
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"Kp": 0.48385423823854457,
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"Lg": 0.43,
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"N": 0.4662972258960817,
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"Nch": 0.22729941048548938,
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"Nd": 0.09090423054953169,
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"Ns": 0.17049764194195746,
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"Nw": 0.5114005895145106,
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"Pd": 0.9352292483301565,
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"Pi": 0.4510843433941384,
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"Plin": 0.8763311191596226,
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"Pm": 0.5007388296322555,
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"Pmem": 0.7802943183157686,
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"Ppol": 0.5023230598382163,
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"Q": 0.4899756881721131,
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"S": 0.4736974256876645,
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"N": 0.4679640645921365,
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"Nch": 0.22729946215662053,
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"Nd": 0.09090387668390394,
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"Ns": 0.17049784862648207,
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"Nw": 0.5114005378433795,
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"Pd": 0.9352013063407087,
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"Pi": 0.4509328265052135,
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"Plin": 0.8762066324354454,
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"Pm": 0.6757753477840724,
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"Pmem": 0.7802652778494975,
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"Ppol": 0.5020560802259075,
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"Q": 0.490367596051575,
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"S": 0.4741539790001801,
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"Sig": 0.43,
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"W": 0.18659851139862596,
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"X": 0.3805204281698532
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"W": 0.18658289088869798,
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"X": 0.3816377637628799
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},
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"k": 2.0,
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"k": 2.1810154653305154,
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"params": {
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"L": 0.2,
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"aO": 0.5452538663326288,
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"aext": 0.58,
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"c_d": 0.0934,
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"c_i": 0.4354,
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"c_lin": 0.1734,
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"c_m": 0.0808,
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"c_m": 0.0671,
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"c_mem": 0.2597,
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"c_pol": 0.4631,
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"c_pol": 0.4664,
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"care_load": 0.03,
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"ell": 0.9051214181121638,
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"ereg": 0.005842745098039215,
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"expl": 0.2,
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"lin_open": 0.2,
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"m": 0.2,
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"oseed": 0.03598675517795351,
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"r_d": 0.6,
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"r_i": 0.45,
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"r_lin": 0.45,
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@ -59,7 +62,7 @@
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"wL0": 0.38659793814432997,
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"x_att": 0.7
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},
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"t_star": 1.1
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"t_star": 1.0
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},
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"CN": {
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"init": {
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@ -11,10 +11,10 @@ range. Adoption scaled from anchor B2 by k; t* aligned by observed growth.
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| US | J3 | 2.00 | 1.2 | 0.125 | 0.478 | 0.0062 | 0.387 | 0.26 |
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| EU | J1 | 1.54 | 0.9 | 0.092 | 0.523 | 0.0063 | 0.719 | 0.60 |
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| DE | J1 | 1.41 | 1.5 | 0.115 | 0.616 | 0.0066 | 0.702 | 0.60 |
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| AR | J2 | 2.00 | 1.1 | 0.110 | 0.387 | 0.0058 | 0.580 | 0.60 |
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| AR | J2 | 2.18 | 1.0 | 0.110 | 0.387 | 0.0058 | 0.580 | 0.60 |
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| CN | J4 | 2.00 | 1.0 | 0.124 | 0.600 | 0.0065 | 0.580 | 0.60 |
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**Fit summary:** 50 of 50 targets inside their range; measured targets 42 of 42.
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**Fit summary:** 51 of 51 targets inside their range; measured targets 43 of 43.
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## Fixed anchors aligned by growth: K_Ω level miss
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@ -23,7 +23,7 @@ range. Adoption scaled from anchor B2 by k; t* aligned by observed growth.
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| US | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.055, z -0.9 | K_Ω 0.125, z +0.0 | K_Ω 0.220, z +1.3 |
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| EU | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.056, z -0.7 | K_Ω 0.127, z +0.6 | K_Ω 0.216, z +2.2 |
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| DE | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.078, z -0.6 | K_Ω 0.175, z +0.9 | K_Ω 0.362, z +3.8 |
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| AR | cannot reach growth | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.110, z +0.0 | K_Ω 0.162, z +0.9 |
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| AR | cannot reach growth | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.099, z -0.2 | K_Ω 0.140, z +0.5 |
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| CN | cannot reach growth | K_Ω 0.057, z -1.0 | K_Ω 0.124, z -0.1 | K_Ω 0.213, z +1.2 |
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## Residuals at the calibrated start
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@ -82,13 +82,14 @@ range. Adoption scaled from anchor B2 by k; t* aligned by observed growth.
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| Target | Range | Model at t* | z | basis |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| Ko | 0.05–0.17 | 0.110 | +0.00 | measured |
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| Pd | 0.89–0.98 | 0.935 | +0.01 | measured |
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| Pd | 0.89–0.98 | 0.935 | +0.00 | measured |
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| Plin | 0.8–0.95 | 0.876 | +0.02 | measured |
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| B | 0.49–0.61 | 0.540 | -0.17 | measured |
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| Sig | 0.36–0.5 | 0.430 | +0.00 | measured |
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| Pmem | 0.68–0.88 | 0.780 | +0.00 | measured |
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| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.25–1.65 | 1.443 | -0.04 | prior |
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| Ko_ratio_1y | 1.36–1.65 | 1.496 | -0.06 | prior |
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| E | 0.15–0.32 | 0.235 | -0.00 | measured |
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| Pm | 0.55–0.8 | 0.676 | +0.01 | measured |
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### CN
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@ -16,64 +16,64 @@ at most a ≈ 0.006. Counterfactual strong rule: a 0.15.
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| closed model, current levers | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
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| closed model, current levers | EU | 0.70 → 0.77 → 0.82 | 0.91 / 0.60 / 0.90 | 0.31 | 0.288 | 0.41 | 0.41 | broken |
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| closed model, current levers | AR | 0.75 → 0.85 → 0.86 | 0.95 / 0.79 / 0.90 | 0.31 | 0.229 | 0.34 | 0.27 | broken |
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| closed model, current levers | AR | 0.77 → 0.86 → 0.87 | 0.95 / 0.79 / 0.90 | 0.33 | 0.223 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
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| coupled, current levers | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
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| coupled, current levers | EU | 0.70 → 0.77 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.91 | 0.31 | 0.281 | 0.41 | 0.42 | broken |
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| coupled, current levers | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
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| coupled, current levers | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
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| coupled, DMA as observed (a fitted) | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
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| coupled, DMA as observed (a fitted) | EU | 0.70 → 0.77 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.91 | 0.31 | 0.281 | 0.41 | 0.42 | broken |
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| coupled, DMA as observed (a fitted) | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
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| coupled, DMA as observed (a fitted) | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
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| coupled, strong access rule a 0.15 (σ 0) | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
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| coupled, strong access rule a 0.15 (σ 0) | EU | 0.70 → 0.61 → 0.68 | 0.14 / 0.07 / 0.91 | 0.35 | 0.332 | 0.44 | 0.39 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, strong access rule a 0.15 (σ 0) | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, strong access rule a 0.15 (σ 0) | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, strong access rule, spillover σ 0.5 | US | 0.68 → 0.70 → 0.75 | 0.68 / 0.12 / 0.90 | 0.38 | 0.279 | 0.37 | 0.31 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, strong access rule, spillover σ 0.5 | EU | 0.70 → 0.61 → 0.69 | 0.14 / 0.07 / 0.91 | 0.35 | 0.331 | 0.44 | 0.39 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, strong access rule, spillover σ 0.5 | AR | 0.75 → 0.73 → 0.76 | 0.68 / 0.12 / 0.90 | 0.33 | 0.265 | 0.36 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, strong access rule, spillover σ 0.5 | AR | 0.77 → 0.75 → 0.77 | 0.68 / 0.12 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.258 | 0.35 | 0.25 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, US moves to J1 levers | US | 0.68 → 0.58 → 0.60 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.28 | 0.49 | 0.379 | 0.46 | 0.47 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US moves to J1 levers | EU | 0.70 → 0.57 → 0.64 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.358 | 0.45 | 0.38 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US moves to J1 levers | AR | 0.75 → 0.63 → 0.66 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.303 | 0.37 | 0.25 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US moves to J1 levers | AR | 0.77 → 0.66 → 0.68 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.295 | 0.37 | 0.24 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US J1 + DMA as observed | US | 0.68 → 0.58 → 0.60 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.28 | 0.49 | 0.379 | 0.46 | 0.47 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US J1 + DMA as observed | EU | 0.70 → 0.57 → 0.64 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.35 | 0.38 | 0.358 | 0.45 | 0.38 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US J1 + DMA as observed | AR | 0.75 → 0.63 → 0.66 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.303 | 0.37 | 0.25 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US J1 + DMA as observed | AR | 0.77 → 0.66 → 0.68 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.295 | 0.37 | 0.24 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US J1 + strong access rule | US | 0.68 → 0.58 → 0.60 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.28 | 0.49 | 0.379 | 0.46 | 0.47 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US J1 + strong access rule | EU | 0.70 → 0.41 → 0.42 | 0.15 / 0.01 / 0.35 | 0.43 | 0.427 | 0.51 | 0.35 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US J1 + strong access rule | AR | 0.75 → 0.63 → 0.66 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.28 | 0.37 | 0.303 | 0.37 | 0.25 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, US J1 + strong access rule | AR | 0.77 → 0.66 → 0.68 | 0.86 / 0.02 / 0.28 | 0.39 | 0.295 | 0.37 | 0.24 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage access rule a 0.15 on Plin | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage access rule a 0.15 on Plin | EU | 0.70 → 0.67 → 0.73 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.19 | 0.34 | 0.316 | 0.43 | 0.40 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage access rule a 0.15 on Plin | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage access rule a 0.15 on Plin | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage portability 0.5 | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage portability 0.5 | EU | 0.70 → 0.77 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.92 | 0.31 | 0.283 | 0.41 | 0.42 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage portability 0.5 | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage portability 0.5 | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage access 0.15 + portability 0.5 | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage access 0.15 + portability 0.5 | EU | 0.70 → 0.70 → 0.76 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.56 | 0.33 | 0.310 | 0.42 | 0.40 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage access 0.15 + portability 0.5 | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU lineage access 0.15 + portability 0.5 | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU cloud switching (Data Act) a 0.15 on Pi | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU cloud switching (Data Act) a 0.15 on Pi | EU | 0.70 → 0.71 → 0.77 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.91 | 0.32 | 0.302 | 0.42 | 0.41 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU cloud switching (Data Act) a 0.15 on Pi | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU cloud switching (Data Act) a 0.15 on Pi | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU all host rules (Pd, Pmem, Plin, Pi 0.15; portability 0.5) | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU all host rules (Pd, Pmem, Plin, Pi 0.15; portability 0.5) | EU | 0.70 → 0.36 → 0.35 | 0.14 / 0.07 / 0.57 | 0.43 | 0.438 | 0.53 | 0.34 | ok |
|
||||
| coupled, EU all host rules (Pd, Pmem, Plin, Pi 0.15; portability 0.5) | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.237 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU all host rules (Pd, Pmem, Plin, Pi 0.15; portability 0.5) | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.232 | 0.34 | 0.25 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, endogenous foreign shares, current levers | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, endogenous foreign shares, current levers | EU | 0.70 → 0.77 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.31 | 0.281 | 0.41 | 0.42 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, endogenous foreign shares, current levers | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, endogenous foreign shares, current levers | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU commons push (IX × 3), fixed shares | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU commons push (IX × 3), fixed shares | EU | 0.70 → 0.76 → 0.81 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.91 | 0.34 | 0.327 | 0.42 | 0.40 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU commons push (IX × 3), fixed shares | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU commons push (IX × 3), fixed shares | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU commons push (IX × 3), endogenous shares | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU commons push (IX × 3), endogenous shares | EU | 0.70 → 0.76 → 0.81 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.326 | 0.42 | 0.40 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU commons push (IX × 3), endogenous shares | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, EU commons push (IX × 3), endogenous shares | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook (domestic segment measured), current levers | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook (domestic segment measured), current levers | EU | 0.70 → 0.76 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.31 | 0.282 | 0.41 | 0.42 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook (domestic segment measured), current levers | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook (domestic segment measured), current levers | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, endogenous shares | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, endogenous shares | EU | 0.70 → 0.76 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.31 | 0.281 | 0.41 | 0.42 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, endogenous shares | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, endogenous shares | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, commons push, endogenous shares | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, commons push, endogenous shares | EU | 0.70 → 0.75 → 0.79 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.331 | 0.42 | 0.40 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, commons push, endogenous shares | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, commons push, endogenous shares | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, lineage portability 0.5 | US | 0.68 → 0.79 → 0.82 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.36 | 0.253 | 0.36 | 0.32 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, lineage portability 0.5 | EU | 0.66 → 0.73 → 0.80 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.86 | 0.32 | 0.292 | 0.41 | 0.41 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, lineage portability 0.5 | AR | 0.75 → 0.81 → 0.83 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.32 | 0.241 | 0.35 | 0.27 | broken |
|
||||
| coupled, split hook, lineage portability 0.5 | AR | 0.77 → 0.82 → 0.84 | 0.88 / 0.63 / 0.90 | 0.34 | 0.235 | 0.34 | 0.26 | broken |
|
||||
|
||||
## EU domination at t 100: effect of each lever (coupled model)
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -10,8 +10,8 @@ start (Calibration v0.5) with ecological classes. Total throughput per output is
|
|||
|
||||
| Jurisdiction | observed | model, no split (φ 0.2) | model, split ε 2 (φ 0.2) | φ_r reproducing the observation (split ε 2) |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| EU | -1.85 %/y | -4.55 %/y | -5.24 %/y | 0.79 |
|
||||
| DE | -2.73 %/y | -3.98 %/y | -4.59 %/y | 0.57 |
|
||||
| EU | -1.85 %/y | -4.50 %/y | -5.20 %/y | 0.78 |
|
||||
| DE | -2.73 %/y | -3.93 %/y | -4.54 %/y | 0.56 |
|
||||
|
||||
## T04 readings at the prior and at the EU-fitted φ_r (generative regime, material replenishment at rest)
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -21,19 +21,19 @@ start (Calibration v0.5) with ecological classes. Total throughput per output is
|
|||
| 0.2 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.77 | none → none | 0.592 → 0.611 |
|
||||
| 0.2 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.68 | none → none | 0.579 → 0.606 |
|
||||
| 0.2 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.36 | none → none | 0.528 → 0.562 |
|
||||
| 0.57 | B1 | 0.00 → 0.00 | none → none | 0.606 → 0.609 |
|
||||
| 0.57 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.15 | none → none | 0.589 → 0.597 |
|
||||
| 0.57 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.45 | none → none | 0.573 → 0.586 |
|
||||
| 0.57 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.19 | none → none | 0.520 → 0.537 |
|
||||
| 0.79 | B1 | 0.00 → 0.00 | none → none | 0.605 → 0.606 |
|
||||
| 0.79 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.00 | none → none | 0.586 → 0.590 |
|
||||
| 0.79 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.02 | none → none | 0.570 → 0.576 |
|
||||
| 0.79 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.02 | none → none | 0.515 → 0.523 |
|
||||
| 0.56 | B1 | 0.00 → 0.00 | none → none | 0.606 → 0.609 |
|
||||
| 0.56 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.20 | none → none | 0.589 → 0.598 |
|
||||
| 0.56 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.49 | none → none | 0.574 → 0.587 |
|
||||
| 0.56 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.20 | none → none | 0.521 → 0.537 |
|
||||
| 0.78 | B1 | 0.00 → 0.00 | none → none | 0.605 → 0.606 |
|
||||
| 0.78 | B2 | 0.00 → 0.00 | none → none | 0.586 → 0.591 |
|
||||
| 0.78 | B3 | 0.00 → 0.03 | none → none | 0.570 → 0.577 |
|
||||
| 0.78 | B4 | 0.00 → 0.03 | none → none | 0.516 → 0.523 |
|
||||
|
||||
## Readings and robustness class
|
||||
|
||||
| Reading | B1 | B2 | B3 | B4 | class |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| decoupled decades with split, φ_r 0.2 | +0.00 | +0.77 | +0.68 | +0.36 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
|
||||
| decoupled decades with split, φ_r 0.57 | +0.00 | +0.15 | +0.45 | +0.19 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
|
||||
| decoupled decades with split, φ_r 0.79 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.02 | +0.02 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
|
||||
| decoupled decades with split, φ_r 0.56 | +0.00 | +0.20 | +0.49 | +0.20 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
|
||||
| decoupled decades with split, φ_r 0.78 | +0.00 | +0.00 | +0.03 | +0.03 | QUALITATIVE BREAK |
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -7,19 +7,19 @@ own start. H2 holds if AR beats the EU on relative output (years 0–100) and on
|
|||
|
||||
| Context | Loop | Export share | AR Ȳ 0–25 / 0–100 | EU Ȳ 0–25 / 0–100 | AR − EU VFAC t100 | AR P t100 | H2 |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | closed (no exports) | 0.99 / 0.81 | 1.02 / 0.86 | -0.040 | 0.83 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 1.00 / 0.82 | 1.02 / 0.86 | -0.041 | 0.83 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | sector goal (4.5 %) | 1.03 / 0.85 | 1.02 / 0.86 | -0.044 | 0.83 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | export hub (10 %) | 1.07 / 0.90 | 1.03 / 0.86 | -0.051 | 0.83 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | closed (no exports) | 0.90 / 0.68 | 0.96 / 0.76 | -0.036 | 0.78 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 0.91 / 0.68 | 0.96 / 0.76 | -0.036 | 0.78 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | sector goal (4.5 %) | 0.92 / 0.69 | 0.96 / 0.76 | -0.037 | 0.78 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | export hub (10 %) | 0.93 / 0.70 | 0.96 / 0.76 | -0.039 | 0.78 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | off | closed (no exports) | 1.06 / 0.93 | 1.10 / 1.03 | -0.055 | 0.66 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | off | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 1.07 / 0.94 | 1.10 / 1.03 | -0.057 | 0.66 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | off | sector goal (4.5 %) | 1.10 / 0.96 | 1.10 / 1.03 | -0.061 | 0.66 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | off | export hub (10 %) | 1.14 / 1.00 | 1.10 / 1.03 | -0.071 | 0.66 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | on | closed (no exports) | 0.99 / 0.84 | 1.07 / 0.98 | -0.049 | 0.62 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | on | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 1.00 / 0.85 | 1.07 / 0.98 | -0.050 | 0.62 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | on | sector goal (4.5 %) | 1.01 / 0.86 | 1.07 / 0.98 | -0.052 | 0.62 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | on | export hub (10 %) | 1.03 / 0.87 | 1.07 / 0.98 | -0.055 | 0.62 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | closed (no exports) | 1.01 / 0.83 | 1.02 / 0.86 | -0.046 | 0.84 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 1.02 / 0.85 | 1.02 / 0.86 | -0.047 | 0.84 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | sector goal (4.5 %) | 1.05 / 0.88 | 1.02 / 0.86 | -0.051 | 0.84 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | export hub (10 %) | 1.10 / 0.93 | 1.03 / 0.87 | -0.057 | 0.84 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | closed (no exports) | 0.91 / 0.68 | 0.96 / 0.76 | -0.041 | 0.79 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 0.91 / 0.69 | 0.96 / 0.76 | -0.041 | 0.79 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | sector goal (4.5 %) | 0.92 / 0.69 | 0.96 / 0.76 | -0.042 | 0.79 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | export hub (10 %) | 0.93 / 0.71 | 0.96 / 0.76 | -0.044 | 0.79 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | off | closed (no exports) | 1.07 / 0.94 | 1.10 / 1.03 | -0.063 | 0.68 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | off | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 1.08 / 0.95 | 1.10 / 1.03 | -0.065 | 0.68 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | off | sector goal (4.5 %) | 1.11 / 0.97 | 1.10 / 1.03 | -0.070 | 0.68 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | off | export hub (10 %) | 1.16 / 1.02 | 1.11 / 1.03 | -0.080 | 0.68 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | on | closed (no exports) | 0.99 / 0.83 | 1.07 / 0.98 | -0.056 | 0.64 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | on | today, upper bound (1.5 %) | 0.99 / 0.84 | 1.07 / 0.98 | -0.057 | 0.64 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | on | sector goal (4.5 %) | 1.00 / 0.85 | 1.07 / 0.98 | -0.059 | 0.64 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | on | export hub (10 %) | 1.02 / 0.87 | 1.07 / 0.98 | -0.063 | 0.64 | no |
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -11,11 +11,11 @@ output levels are normalized model units and not comparable across jurisdictions
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| off | US | 0.39 | 1.04 / 0.87 | 0.253 | 0.82 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.28 |
|
||||
| off | EU | 0.32 | 1.02 / 0.86 | 0.280 | 0.82 | 0.41 | 0.41 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| off | AR | 0.34 | 0.99 / 0.81 | 0.241 | 0.83 | 0.35 | 0.27 | 0.43 |
|
||||
| off | AR | 0.37 | 1.01 / 0.83 | 0.235 | 0.84 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.43 |
|
||||
| off | J4 | 0.43 | 1.10 / 0.93 | 0.280 | 0.77 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.77 |
|
||||
| on | US | 0.27 | 0.90 / 0.69 | 0.293 | 0.77 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.16 |
|
||||
| on | EU | 0.28 | 0.96 / 0.76 | 0.311 | 0.77 | 0.42 | 0.46 | 0.43 |
|
||||
| on | AR | 0.27 | 0.90 / 0.68 | 0.275 | 0.78 | 0.37 | 0.32 | 0.31 |
|
||||
| on | AR | 0.28 | 0.91 / 0.68 | 0.270 | 0.79 | 0.37 | 0.31 | 0.31 |
|
||||
| on | J4 | 0.39 | 1.05 / 0.85 | 0.305 | 0.73 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.70 |
|
||||
|
||||
## X2 open-lineage world
|
||||
|
|
@ -24,11 +24,11 @@ output levels are normalized model units and not comparable across jurisdictions
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| off | US | 0.45 | 1.16 / 1.10 | 0.379 | 0.60 | 0.46 | 0.47 | 0.28 |
|
||||
| off | EU | 0.35 | 1.10 / 1.03 | 0.358 | 0.64 | 0.45 | 0.38 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| off | AR | 0.37 | 1.06 / 0.93 | 0.303 | 0.66 | 0.37 | 0.25 | 0.43 |
|
||||
| off | AR | 0.40 | 1.07 / 0.94 | 0.295 | 0.68 | 0.37 | 0.24 | 0.43 |
|
||||
| off | J4 | 0.43 | 1.10 / 0.93 | 0.280 | 0.77 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.77 |
|
||||
| on | US | 0.44 | 1.14 / 1.08 | 0.394 | 0.57 | 0.47 | 0.48 | 0.26 |
|
||||
| on | EU | 0.33 | 1.07 / 0.98 | 0.378 | 0.60 | 0.46 | 0.41 | 0.46 |
|
||||
| on | AR | 0.32 | 0.99 / 0.84 | 0.330 | 0.62 | 0.40 | 0.28 | 0.31 |
|
||||
| on | AR | 0.32 | 0.99 / 0.83 | 0.322 | 0.64 | 0.39 | 0.28 | 0.31 |
|
||||
| on | J4 | 0.39 | 1.05 / 0.85 | 0.305 | 0.73 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.70 |
|
||||
|
||||
## X3 accelerating frontier
|
||||
|
|
@ -37,11 +37,11 @@ output levels are normalized model units and not comparable across jurisdictions
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| off | US | 0.73 | 1.32 / 1.20 | 0.218 | 0.84 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 0.28 |
|
||||
| off | EU | 0.40 | 1.09 / 0.95 | 0.267 | 0.84 | 0.40 | 0.38 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| off | AR | 0.42 | 1.06 / 0.89 | 0.226 | 0.85 | 0.34 | 0.24 | 0.43 |
|
||||
| off | AR | 0.44 | 1.07 / 0.91 | 0.222 | 0.85 | 0.33 | 0.24 | 0.43 |
|
||||
| off | J4 | 0.75 | 1.34 / 1.23 | 0.238 | 0.80 | 0.34 | 0.23 | 0.77 |
|
||||
| on | US | 0.44 | 0.99 / 0.74 | 0.288 | 0.78 | 0.39 | 0.37 | 0.13 |
|
||||
| on | EU | 0.35 | 1.01 / 0.81 | 0.306 | 0.78 | 0.42 | 0.44 | 0.41 |
|
||||
| on | AR | 0.33 | 0.95 / 0.72 | 0.269 | 0.78 | 0.37 | 0.30 | 0.28 |
|
||||
| on | AR | 0.34 | 0.95 / 0.73 | 0.265 | 0.79 | 0.36 | 0.30 | 0.28 |
|
||||
| on | J4 | 0.66 | 1.22 / 1.01 | 0.282 | 0.75 | 0.39 | 0.30 | 0.66 |
|
||||
|
||||
## X4 fragmented blocs
|
||||
|
|
@ -50,25 +50,25 @@ output levels are normalized model units and not comparable across jurisdictions
|
|||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| off | US | 0.39 | 1.04 / 0.87 | 0.253 | 0.82 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.28 |
|
||||
| off | EU | 0.31 | 1.01 / 0.85 | 0.282 | 0.83 | 0.41 | 0.42 | 0.54 |
|
||||
| off | AR | 0.34 | 0.99 / 0.80 | 0.235 | 0.85 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 0.43 |
|
||||
| off | AR | 0.36 | 1.01 / 0.83 | 0.229 | 0.85 | 0.34 | 0.26 | 0.43 |
|
||||
| off | J4 | 0.43 | 1.10 / 0.93 | 0.280 | 0.77 | 0.39 | 0.33 | 0.77 |
|
||||
| on | US | 0.27 | 0.90 / 0.69 | 0.293 | 0.77 | 0.39 | 0.39 | 0.16 |
|
||||
| on | EU | 0.26 | 0.94 / 0.72 | 0.307 | 0.79 | 0.42 | 0.48 | 0.43 |
|
||||
| on | AR | 0.25 | 0.87 / 0.64 | 0.266 | 0.81 | 0.37 | 0.33 | 0.32 |
|
||||
| on | AR | 0.26 | 0.88 / 0.65 | 0.261 | 0.82 | 0.36 | 0.32 | 0.31 |
|
||||
| on | J4 | 0.39 | 1.05 / 0.85 | 0.305 | 0.73 | 0.41 | 0.36 | 0.70 |
|
||||
|
||||
## Hypothesis re-test
|
||||
|
||||
| Context | Loop | H1 EU adoption lags US and AR (K_Ω t10) | EU − US: ΔȲ 0–25 / ΔVFAC | H2 AR − EU: ΔȲ 0–25 / ΔȲ 0–100 / ΔVFAC | H2 holds? |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | yes (0.32 vs 0.39, 0.34) | -0.015 / +0.027 | -0.031 / -0.050 / -0.040 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | no (0.28 vs 0.27, 0.27) | +0.061 / +0.017 | -0.059 / -0.082 / -0.036 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | off | yes (0.35 vs 0.45, 0.37) | -0.058 / -0.021 | -0.043 / -0.099 / -0.055 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | on | no (0.33 vs 0.44, 0.32) | -0.076 / -0.016 | -0.077 / -0.138 / -0.049 | no |
|
||||
| X3 accelerating frontier | off | yes (0.40 vs 0.73, 0.42) | -0.225 / +0.049 | -0.032 / -0.057 / -0.041 | no |
|
||||
| X3 accelerating frontier | on | no (0.35 vs 0.44, 0.33) | +0.026 / +0.018 | -0.063 / -0.088 / -0.037 | no |
|
||||
| X4 fragmented blocs | off | yes (0.31 vs 0.39, 0.34) | -0.027 / +0.028 | -0.027 / -0.054 / -0.047 | no |
|
||||
| X4 fragmented blocs | on | no (0.26 vs 0.27, 0.25) | +0.038 / +0.013 | -0.066 / -0.083 / -0.040 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | off | yes (0.32 vs 0.39, 0.37) | -0.015 / +0.027 | -0.012 / -0.023 / -0.046 | no |
|
||||
| X1 US-led concentrated frontier | on | no (0.28 vs 0.27, 0.28) | +0.061 / +0.017 | -0.057 / -0.079 / -0.041 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | off | yes (0.35 vs 0.45, 0.40) | -0.058 / -0.021 | -0.032 / -0.091 / -0.063 | no |
|
||||
| X2 open-lineage world | on | no (0.33 vs 0.44, 0.32) | -0.076 / -0.016 | -0.080 / -0.144 / -0.056 | no |
|
||||
| X3 accelerating frontier | off | yes (0.40 vs 0.73, 0.44) | -0.225 / +0.049 | -0.019 / -0.038 / -0.045 | no |
|
||||
| X3 accelerating frontier | on | no (0.35 vs 0.44, 0.34) | +0.026 / +0.018 | -0.059 / -0.083 / -0.041 | no |
|
||||
| X4 fragmented blocs | off | yes (0.31 vs 0.39, 0.36) | -0.027 / +0.028 | -0.007 / -0.026 / -0.053 | no |
|
||||
| X4 fragmented blocs | on | yes (0.26 vs 0.27, 0.26) | +0.038 / +0.013 | -0.062 / -0.075 / -0.045 | no |
|
||||
|
||||
## Local-in-context vs. global (EU, context X1, loop off)
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -138,12 +138,14 @@ predictions v2 as new entries that supersede v1.
|
|||
|
||||
```task
|
||||
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0015-T06
|
||||
status: todo
|
||||
status: wait
|
||||
priority: medium
|
||||
state_hub_task_id: "8cce2578-9046-502f-b4a6-bcab272accab"
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
**2026-10-19: AR data found (partly unblocked; next: re-calibrate AR).** Verified against the sources:
|
||||
**2026-10-19, re-calibrated (Calibration v0.7, `models/Calibration.md` § 3.2):** AR Pm 0.55–0.80 (measured, dated) and AR K_Ω growth 1.36–1.65 (prior, narrowed by the relative signal). k 2.18; 51 of 51 targets in range; no reading or world/export verdict changes. Remaining, so this stays `wait`: a firm-level second AR adoption point, and a current S&P/BYMA constituent file in place of the dated GFDD range.
|
||||
|
||||
**2026-10-19: AR data found.** Verified against the sources:
|
||||
|
||||
- **AR adoption growth (relative signal):** Microsoft AI Diffusion via [Our World in Data](https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/estimated-share-people-generative-ai) (`ai_user_share`, people 15–64 using generative AI; modelled from telemetry): AR 17.8 / 19.6 / 21.9 % (2025-06-30 / 2025-12-31 / 2026-03-31); US 26.3 / 28.3 / 31.3 %. Implied growth per year about 1.32 for AR and 1.26 for the US. This counts individuals, not firms, so it is not the BTOS/Eurostat operator. Use the AR/US ratio of about 1.05 to place AR's k inside the 1.25–1.65 prior; do not use it as an absolute value. No firm-level second point exists yet: INDEC has no firm AI/ICT survey, MinCyT ENDEI wave 4 is in fieldwork, and the Google/IDB study has no earlier wave.
|
||||
- **AR Pm:** World Bank GFDD via [FRED DDAM02ARA156NWDB](https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/DDAM02ARA156NWDB) (value traded outside the top 10, as a share of market cap). Top-10 share = 100 − value: 68.5 / 74.1 / 72.4 / 63.3 / 57.4 / 80.4 % for 2012–2017. This is the same operator family as the EU STOXX top-10 measure (about 21 %). Caveats: the series ends in 2017, it is volatile, and firms listed only abroad (MercadoLibre) are missing. Usable as a range of 57–80 %. Not verified in the original: S&P/BYMA General top-10 weight 73.2 % (factsheet 2022-10-31). Cross-check only (a different operator): INDEC ENGE 2024, the top 500 firms produce 17.4 % of gross value added.
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Add table
Add a link
Reference in a new issue