ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01: indicator catalog v0.2 — sensor bundles for all stocks; T08 for source wiring
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
This commit is contained in:
parent
4c49310a18
commit
f67787017c
3 changed files with 202 additions and 4 deletions
|
|
@ -1,7 +1,11 @@
|
|||
# Checkpoint indicator catalog
|
||||
|
||||
**Status:** v0.1 (minimal, for setup runs). ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01 extends it to
|
||||
full sensor bundles for all stocks (`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`).
|
||||
**Status:** v0.2 (2026-10-13). v0.1 held only the light and full lists. v0.2
|
||||
adds a sensor bundle for every GADM stock (§ Stock sensor bundles), following
|
||||
`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`. IDs L1–L7 and F1–F8 are unchanged because
|
||||
recorded checkpoints refer to them. Only indicators with an entry in
|
||||
`sources.json` are fetched automatically. All others are collected by hand at
|
||||
reviews.
|
||||
|
||||
Jurisdictions: **US**, **EU** (with Germany where available), **Argentina**
|
||||
(the owner's hypotheses: the EU lags, Argentina may thrive). Add others only
|
||||
|
|
@ -35,3 +39,176 @@ one.
|
|||
| F6 | Displaced-worker re-employment by age | US | BLS Displaced Worker Survey (biennial) | senior agency modifiers |
|
||||
| F7 | Public R&D share of GDP; open-source investment initiatives | US, EU, DE | OECD MSTI; national data | commons investment IX |
|
||||
| F8 | Energy use of data centers | US, EU | IEA; national energy agencies | ecological draw of K_Ω (`e2`) |
|
||||
|
||||
## Stock sensor bundles
|
||||
|
||||
One bundle per GADM stock, with the four measure kinds from
|
||||
`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`: **O** objective outcome, **St** structural,
|
||||
**B** behavioral, **Su** subjective. Most bundles reuse L and F indicators
|
||||
where they apply.
|
||||
|
||||
Column *Access*: **api** = machine-readable source that can get a
|
||||
`sources.json` entry; **file** = downloadable tables without a stable API;
|
||||
**manual** = report, paywall or registration, collected by hand. The access
|
||||
values are not yet verified against web-fetcher. Verification and wiring
|
||||
belong to ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T08.
|
||||
|
||||
Cadence: **a** annual, **q** quarterly, **m** monthly, **irr** irregular or
|
||||
multi-year survey waves. Bundles are collected at full (annual) checkpoints
|
||||
unless an L indicator already covers them.
|
||||
|
||||
### H — Human capability
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| H1 | O | Healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth | US, EU, DE, AR | WHO Global Health Observatory | api | a |
|
||||
| H2 | O | Adult literacy, numeracy, adaptive problem solving | US, DE (no AR) | OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC cycle 2) | file | irr |
|
||||
| H3 | St | Public expenditure on education, % of GDP | US, EU, DE, AR | World Bank WDI; UNESCO UIS | api | a |
|
||||
| H4 | B | Adult participation in learning (last 4 weeks) | EU, DE | Eurostat `trng_lfse_01` | api | a |
|
||||
| H5 | Su | Perceived freedom of choice and control over one's life | US, DE, AR | World Values Survey; Gallup World Poll (via World Happiness Report) | file | irr |
|
||||
|
||||
Gaps: no unassisted-capability measure (MetricsCatalog link #40). Argentina
|
||||
is not in PIAAC; PISA covers only 15-year-olds.
|
||||
|
||||
### X — Assembly commons
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| X1 | O | Reuse of open packages (dependents per package, top ecosystems) | global | ecosyste.ms; deps.dev | api | q |
|
||||
| X2 | St | Open-access share of research output | US, EU, DE, AR | OpenAlex | api | a |
|
||||
| X3 | B | Developers and git pushes per economy | US, DE, AR, EU members | GitHub Innovation Graph | file | q |
|
||||
| X4 | B | Maintainer continuity in critical projects | global | OpenSSF Scorecard; CHAOSS metrics | api | irr |
|
||||
| X5 | Su | Developers' ease of building on existing components | global, per country | Stack Overflow Developer Survey | file | a |
|
||||
| F7 | St | Public R&D share; open-source investment | US, EU, DE | OECD MSTI | api | a |
|
||||
|
||||
### K_phys / K_Ω — Productive capacity and organism capability
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| L4 | O | AI task coverage by occupation; automation vs. augmentation | global | Anthropic Economic Index | manual | irr |
|
||||
| K1 | O | Labour productivity growth | US, EU, DE, AR | BLS; Eurostat `nama_10_lp_ulc`; ILOSTAT | api | q/a |
|
||||
| K2 | St | Installed supercomputing capacity per country | US, EU, DE | TOP500 | file | semiannual |
|
||||
| K3 | St | Number of independent developers of notable or frontier models | global, per country | Epoch AI data; Stanford AI Index | file | irr |
|
||||
| L5 | St | Investment in information-processing equipment | US | BEA via FRED | api | q |
|
||||
| L1–L3 | B | Firm adoption of AI | US, EU, DE, AR | BTOS; Eurostat; manual for AR | api / manual | 2-weekly / a |
|
||||
| K4 | Su | Workers' assessment of AI usefulness at work | US, EU | Pew Research; Eurofound | manual | irr |
|
||||
|
||||
Report K together with B (F1) and P, as the MetricsCatalog requires.
|
||||
|
||||
### F — Risk capacity
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| F-R1 | O | Business applications (high-propensity) | US | Census Business Formation Statistics via FRED | api | m |
|
||||
| F-R2 | O | Business registrations and bankruptcy declarations | EU, DE | Eurostat `sts_rb_q` | api | q |
|
||||
| F-R3 | O | Employer firm births and deaths | AR | Ministerio de Trabajo, OEDE (Observatorio de Empleo y Dinámica Empresarial) | file | q |
|
||||
| F-R4 | St | Insolvency and business-entry regime | US, DE, AR | World Bank B-READY | file | a |
|
||||
| F-R5 | B | Total early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA) | US, DE, AR | Global Entrepreneurship Monitor | file | a |
|
||||
| F-R6 | Su | Fear-of-failure rate | US, DE, AR | Global Entrepreneurship Monitor | file | a |
|
||||
|
||||
Gap: no source separates founders without inherited wealth.
|
||||
|
||||
### G — Effective agency
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| G1 | O | Intergenerational income mobility | US | Opportunity Insights | file | irr |
|
||||
| G2 | O | Re-employment of displaced workers by age | US | BLS Displaced Worker Survey (= F6) | file | biennial |
|
||||
| G3 | St | Data and service portability rules in force | EU, US, AR | EU Data Act, DMA; legislative trackers (with L7) | manual | irr |
|
||||
| G4 | B | Job-to-job transition rate | US, EU | Census J2J; Eurostat LFS `lfsi_long_e01` | api | q |
|
||||
| H5 | Su | Perceived freedom of choice (shared with H) | US, DE, AR | WVS; Gallup | file | irr |
|
||||
|
||||
Gap: restartability (time × cost × restrictions) has no direct source; it
|
||||
needs a composite built from F-R4, G2 and G4.
|
||||
|
||||
### N — Diversity & composability
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| N1 | O | Firm entry and exit rates (business dynamism) | US | Census Business Dynamics Statistics | api | a |
|
||||
| N2 | O | Diversity of model publishers (entropy of downloads by organization) | global | Hugging Face Hub API | api | q |
|
||||
| F2 | St | Concentration per component class | US, EU | competition authorities, trackers | manual | a |
|
||||
| N3 | B | Multi-vendor use of AI models and clouds by firms | US, EU | vendor and analyst surveys | manual | irr |
|
||||
| N4 | Su | Perceived lock-in | global | Stack Overflow Developer Survey; Eurostat cloud module | file | a |
|
||||
|
||||
Gap: interoperability test pass rates have no public series.
|
||||
|
||||
### Q — Epistemic capacity
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| Q1 | O | Reported AI incidents and time to response | global | AI Incident Database | api | irr |
|
||||
| Q2 | St | Press freedom; freedom of academic and cultural expression | US, EU, DE, AR | RSF World Press Freedom Index; V-Dem | file | a |
|
||||
| Q3 | St | Concentration of news and information channels | US, DE, AR | Reuters Institute Digital News Report; StatCounter (search share) | file | a / m |
|
||||
| Q4 | B | Share of AI-mediated decisions with retrievable provenance | EU | AI Act transparency obligations (with L7) | manual | irr |
|
||||
| Q5 | Su | Trust in news and in AI-generated information | US, DE, AR | Reuters Institute Digital News Report; Edelman | file | a |
|
||||
|
||||
Caveat: Q5 measures trust *levels*. Calibration (trust against reliability)
|
||||
needs Q1 or Q2 alongside. Disagreement between them is the finding.
|
||||
|
||||
### P — Domination concentration (per channel)
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Channel | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| F2 | O | market | Top-firm shares, HHI in digital sectors | US, EU | competition authorities | manual | a |
|
||||
| P1 | St | infrastructure | Cloud infrastructure market shares | global, regional | Synergy Research; Canalys (press summaries) | manual | q |
|
||||
| P2 | St | discovery | Search engine market share | US, DE, AR | StatCounter Global Stats | file | m |
|
||||
| P3 | St | membrane | Mobile OS and browser shares | US, DE, AR | StatCounter Global Stats | file | m |
|
||||
| P4 | St | lineage | Share of notable models from the top three developers | global | Epoch AI; Stanford AI Index (with K3) | file | irr |
|
||||
| P5 | St | political | Lobbying spend of large technology firms | US, EU | OpenSecrets; EU Transparency Register | api | q / a |
|
||||
| P6 | B | — | Self-preferencing and exclusion decisions | US, EU | FTC, DOJ, European Commission DMA decisions | manual | irr |
|
||||
| P7 | Su | — | Perceived ability to contest decisions of platforms | EU | Eurobarometer (when asked) | manual | irr |
|
||||
|
||||
### E — Ecological headroom
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| E1 | O | Territorial CO₂ emissions | US, EU, DE, AR | Global Carbon Budget; Our World in Data | api | a |
|
||||
| E2 | O | Domestic material consumption per capita | US, EU, DE, AR | UNEP IRP Global Material Flows; Eurostat `env_ac_mfa` | file / api | a |
|
||||
| E3 | St | Electricity mix (low-carbon share) | US, EU, DE, AR | Ember | api | m |
|
||||
| E4 | St | Circular material use rate | EU, DE | Eurostat `env_ac_cur` | api | a |
|
||||
| F8 | B | Data-center energy use | US, EU | IEA; national energy agencies | manual | a |
|
||||
|
||||
Su is empty by design (MetricsCatalog).
|
||||
|
||||
### S — Social cohesion
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| S1 | O | Political violence and protest events | US, AR | ACLED (registration) | manual | m |
|
||||
| S2 | St | Democracy and deliberation indices | US, EU, DE, AR | V-Dem | file | a |
|
||||
| S3 | B | Voter turnout in national elections | US, DE, AR | International IDEA | file | per election |
|
||||
| S4 | Su | Generalized interpersonal trust | US, DE, AR | World Values Survey; Latinobarómetro (AR) | file | irr / a |
|
||||
| S5 | Su | Trust in national institutions | US, EU, DE, AR | Pew; Eurobarometer; Latinobarómetro | file | a |
|
||||
|
||||
### A — Attention headroom
|
||||
|
||||
| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| F4 | O | Time use: leisure, TV, social media | US, EU | BLS ATUS; Eurostat HETUS | api / file | a / irr |
|
||||
| A1 | O | Time use including unpaid care | AR | INDEC Encuesta Nacional de Uso del Tiempo (2021) | file | irr |
|
||||
| A2 | St | Rules on engagement design and default notifications | EU, US | DSA enforcement; state laws (with L7) | manual | irr |
|
||||
| A3 | B | Daily time on social media and on the internet | US, DE, AR | DataReportal (GWI survey) | manual | a |
|
||||
| A4 | Su | Reported time scarcity; perceived control over attention | US | Pew Research | manual | irr |
|
||||
|
||||
Caveat: A3 measures captured attention. It is the inverse of A, not A
|
||||
itself (MetricsCatalog, Goodhart risk). F4 and A1 give self-directed time.
|
||||
|
||||
## Coverage summary
|
||||
|
||||
| Stock | O | St | B | Su | AR covered |
|
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
||||
| H | H1, H2 | H3 | H4 (EU only) | H5 | partly |
|
||||
| X | X1 | X2, F7 | X3, X4 | X5 | X2, X3 |
|
||||
| K | L4, K1 | K2, K3, L5 | L1–L3 | K4 | L3 manual |
|
||||
| F | F-R1–3 | F-R4 | F-R5 | F-R6 | yes |
|
||||
| G | G1, G2 (US only) | G3 | G4 | H5 | weak |
|
||||
| N | N1, N2 | F2 | N3 | N4 | no |
|
||||
| Q | Q1 | Q2, Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | yes |
|
||||
| P | F2 | P1–P5 | P6 | P7 | P2, P3 |
|
||||
| E | E1, E2 | E3, E4 | F8 | — | E1–E3 |
|
||||
| S | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4, S5 | yes |
|
||||
| A | F4, A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 | A1 only |
|
||||
|
||||
Weakest bundles: G (restartability), N (composability) and Q (calibration).
|
||||
Their readings should carry wide uncertainty until better sources exist.
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -29,6 +29,9 @@ Rules for using the catalog:
|
|||
4. Changes to indicators are governed like model changes: versioned, with a
|
||||
rationale (WS-11, governance of metrics).
|
||||
|
||||
Concrete sources per jurisdiction for each bundle are listed in
|
||||
`checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md` (v0.2).
|
||||
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
## H — Human capability
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
|
|
@ -10,7 +10,7 @@ depends_on: []
|
|||
owner: claude-code
|
||||
topic_slug: coulomb-social
|
||||
created: "2026-10-12"
|
||||
updated: "2026-10-12"
|
||||
updated: "2026-10-13"
|
||||
state_hub_workstream_id: "a878617a-bde6-5690-9b8d-f44c72f253dc"
|
||||
---
|
||||
|
||||
|
|
@ -24,7 +24,7 @@ technical data, per jurisdiction where possible.
|
|||
|
||||
```task
|
||||
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01
|
||||
status: progress
|
||||
status: done
|
||||
priority: high
|
||||
state_hub_task_id: "52cb88b0-9a5c-583f-a983-4b331f255f9e"
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
|
@ -36,6 +36,10 @@ displaced-worker re-employment, trust and sentiment surveys, AI legislation
|
|||
trackers. Store in `checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md`, linked to
|
||||
`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`.
|
||||
|
||||
**Done 2026-10-13:** catalog v0.2 has sensor bundles (O/St/B/Su) for all
|
||||
eleven stocks, with jurisdiction, source, access class and cadence, and a
|
||||
coverage summary. The weakest bundles are G, N and Q. Wiring sources is T08.
|
||||
|
||||
## Checkpoint protocol and prediction register format
|
||||
|
||||
```task
|
||||
|
|
@ -125,3 +129,17 @@ The founder creates `coulomb/web-fetcher` on forgejo.coulomb.social
|
|||
(push-to-create is disabled). Then: push from the workstation, repoint the
|
||||
railiance01 checkout (currently cloned from a git bundle) to origin, and
|
||||
register the repo with the State Hub (`statehub register`).
|
||||
|
||||
## Machine-readable sources for full-checkpoint bundles
|
||||
|
||||
```task
|
||||
id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T08
|
||||
status: todo
|
||||
priority: medium
|
||||
```
|
||||
|
||||
For each catalog v0.2 indicator marked `api` or `file`, check that
|
||||
web-fetcher can retrieve it and add a `sources.json` spec (`kind: full`)
|
||||
with an adapter. Mark any that fail as `manual` in the catalog. Do this
|
||||
before the first annual full checkpoint. Full runs pick up every spec, so
|
||||
test each adapter with `--no-llm` before committing.
|
||||
|
|
|
|||
Loading…
Add table
Add a link
Reference in a new issue