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assembly-economics/simulations/gadm02/results/jurisdictions.md
tegwick 15828606b4 ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T04: jurisdiction archetypes J1–J4 (perm lever, jurisdictions.py, AdoptionBand § 4, provisional EU/US/AR mapping) 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-13 15:04:13 +02:00

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GADM-0.4: jurisdiction archetypes across the band

Generated by simulations/gadm02/jurisdictions.py (ASSEMBLY-WP-0009-T04). Baseline scenario; archetype levers from t = 0 at each anchor's equilibrium. Y̅ 0–25 / 0–100 = mean potential output Y* over the period (prosperity proxy).

Archetype levers

Archetype Levers Initial Σ
J1 rights-first / precautionary perm 0.6, m 0.7, expl 0.7, L 0.6, lin_open 0.6, std 0.6, x_att 0.3 0.45
J2 deregulated fast-adopter perm 1.5, m 0.2, expl 0.2, L 0.2, lin_open 0.2, x_att 0.7 0.65
J3 platform-led perm 1.3, m 0.1, expl 0.4, L 0.1, lin_open 0.1, disc 0.6, x_att 0.8 0.5
J4 state-coordinated perm 1.3, m 0.2, expl 0.4, L 0.2, lin_open 0.2, x_att 0.5, sig_gain 0.5, leg_lag 10.0 0.6

Legitimacy loop off

Anchor Arch. K_Ω t10 / t100 Y̅ 0–25 / 0–100 VFAC t10 / t100 G A P Σ end floors broken
B1 J1 0.07 / 0.12 0.423 / 0.516 0.551 / 0.642 0.65 0.55 0.13 0.45 none
B1 J2 0.15 / 0.08 0.422 / 0.322 0.504 / 0.318 0.42 0.41 0.81 0.65 P
B1 J3 0.13 / 0.06 0.403 / 0.279 0.493 / 0.296 0.41 0.39 0.85 0.50 P
B1 J4 0.14 / 0.07 0.424 / 0.338 0.519 / 0.331 0.42 0.49 0.81 0.60 P
B2 J1 0.17 / 0.28 0.454 / 0.533 0.544 / 0.609 0.62 0.46 0.17 0.45 none
B2 J2 0.38 / 0.23 0.478 / 0.366 0.466 / 0.286 0.39 0.31 0.83 0.65 P
B2 J3 0.32 / 0.19 0.456 / 0.332 0.458 / 0.272 0.39 0.31 0.86 0.50 P
B2 J4 0.34 / 0.21 0.476 / 0.366 0.489 / 0.303 0.40 0.39 0.83 0.60 P
B3 J1 0.34 / 0.38 0.504 / 0.546 0.533 / 0.508 0.53 0.42 0.44 0.45 none
B3 J2 0.60 / 0.44 0.542 / 0.472 0.422 / 0.254 0.36 0.23 0.85 0.65 P
B3 J3 0.56 / 0.41 0.525 / 0.448 0.415 / 0.243 0.35 0.22 0.88 0.50 P
B3 J4 0.58 / 0.42 0.540 / 0.470 0.450 / 0.273 0.37 0.30 0.84 0.60 P
B4 J1 0.66 / 0.61 0.585 / 0.599 0.517 / 0.402 0.46 0.34 0.65 0.45 none
B4 J2 0.84 / 0.72 0.629 / 0.616 0.379 / 0.222 0.33 0.17 0.87 0.65 P,A
B4 J3 0.83 / 0.71 0.621 / 0.610 0.368 / 0.211 0.31 0.15 0.89 0.50 P,A
B4 J4 0.84 / 0.73 0.628 / 0.621 0.407 / 0.240 0.33 0.22 0.86 0.60 P

Legitimacy loop on

Anchor Arch. K_Ω t10 / t100 Y̅ 0–25 / 0–100 VFAC t10 / t100 G A P Σ end floors broken
B1 J1 0.06 / 0.17 0.424 / 0.519 0.551 / 0.631 0.64 0.52 0.14 0.60 none
B1 J2 0.16 / 0.02 0.412 / 0.314 0.497 / 0.343 0.43 0.46 0.79 0.29 P
B1 J3 0.11 / 0.02 0.393 / 0.274 0.495 / 0.316 0.42 0.44 0.83 0.26 P
B1 J4 0.16 / 0.05 0.425 / 0.323 0.513 / 0.337 0.42 0.50 0.80 0.44 P
B2 J1 0.15 / 0.28 0.450 / 0.533 0.546 / 0.607 0.62 0.46 0.18 0.51 none
B2 J2 0.26 / 0.05 0.426 / 0.286 0.463 / 0.334 0.43 0.43 0.79 0.25 P
B2 J3 0.20 / 0.03 0.408 / 0.257 0.470 / 0.312 0.42 0.42 0.83 0.24 P
B2 J4 0.37 / 0.13 0.467 / 0.326 0.477 / 0.320 0.41 0.44 0.81 0.41 P
B3 J1 0.28 / 0.32 0.483 / 0.547 0.537 / 0.556 0.57 0.44 0.36 0.40 none
B3 J2 0.32 / 0.08 0.436 / 0.284 0.434 / 0.328 0.42 0.41 0.80 0.22 P
B3 J3 0.26 / 0.05 0.416 / 0.256 0.446 / 0.308 0.41 0.40 0.83 0.21 P
B3 J4 0.55 / 0.25 0.512 / 0.380 0.439 / 0.303 0.40 0.37 0.82 0.38 P
B4 J1 0.48 / 0.35 0.523 / 0.546 0.527 / 0.520 0.54 0.43 0.42 0.34 none
B4 J2 0.49 / 0.08 0.454 / 0.275 0.394 / 0.327 0.42 0.41 0.80 0.21 P
B4 J3 0.39 / 0.06 0.427 / 0.248 0.412 / 0.308 0.41 0.40 0.83 0.20 P
B4 J4 0.76 / 0.38 0.576 / 0.453 0.400 / 0.287 0.38 0.32 0.83 0.34 P

Hypothesis test: J1 (lagging) − J2 (deregulated fast-adopter)

Anchor Loop Δ Y̅ 0–25 Δ Y̅ 0–100 Δ VFAC t100 Δ G Δ A Δ P reading
B1 off +0.000 +0.195 +0.324 +0.237 +0.139 -0.685 lagging better on all three; J1 not poorer early
B1 on +0.012 +0.205 +0.288 +0.211 +0.063 -0.647 lagging better on all three; J1 not poorer early
B2 off -0.024 +0.167 +0.322 +0.232 +0.151 -0.659 lagging better on all three; J2 richer early
B2 on +0.024 +0.247 +0.273 +0.197 +0.027 -0.617 lagging better on all three; J1 not poorer early
B3 off -0.038 +0.074 +0.253 +0.163 +0.187 -0.417 lagging better on all three; J2 richer early
B3 on +0.047 +0.263 +0.228 +0.148 +0.026 -0.437 lagging better on all three; J1 not poorer early
B4 off -0.044 -0.017 +0.180 +0.131 +0.171 -0.222 lagging better on all three; J2 richer early
B4 on +0.069 +0.271 +0.193 +0.118 +0.022 -0.378 lagging better on all three; J1 not poorer early

Decomposition: speed (perm) vs. rights levers

Each lever regime run at slow (perm 0.6) and fast (perm 1.5) permissiveness, other levers and initial Σ as in the archetype. Δ = slow − fast: the effect of lagging alone.

Anchor Loop Regime Δ Y̅ 0–25 Δ Y̅ 0–100 Δ VFAC t100 Δ G Δ A Δ P
B1 off J1 levers -0.031 -0.017 +0.033 +0.029 +0.083 -0.045
B1 off J2 levers -0.022 +0.072 +0.059 +0.030 +0.036 -0.059
B1 on J1 levers -0.026 -0.014 +0.023 +0.019 +0.058 -0.034
B1 on J2 levers -0.012 +0.074 +0.044 +0.020 +0.005 -0.047
B2 off J1 levers -0.071 -0.016 +0.132 +0.120 +0.062 -0.327
B2 off J2 levers -0.055 -0.044 +0.032 +0.024 +0.095 -0.019
B2 on J1 levers -0.045 -0.013 +0.068 +0.070 +0.016 -0.207
B2 on J2 levers -0.014 +0.028 +0.009 +0.005 +0.022 -0.004
B3 off J1 levers -0.087 -0.050 +0.104 +0.066 +0.077 -0.212
B3 off J2 levers -0.082 -0.128 +0.042 +0.037 +0.109 -0.024
B3 on J1 levers -0.053 -0.002 +0.046 +0.037 +0.022 -0.079
B3 on J2 levers -0.013 +0.005 +0.008 +0.004 +0.030 -0.003
B4 off J1 levers -0.074 -0.080 +0.038 +0.019 +0.061 -0.058
B4 off J2 levers -0.100 -0.210 +0.054 +0.055 +0.117 -0.031
B4 on J1 levers -0.064 -0.022 +0.042 +0.023 +0.046 -0.087
B4 on J2 levers -0.026 -0.001 +0.008 +0.005 +0.032 -0.003

Best archetype by VFAC t100

Anchor loop off loop on
B1 J1 J1
B2 J1 J1
B3 J1 J1
B4 J1 J1