tegwick
ee7b17da5e
- dO grounded at 0.20/yr (software, R&D capital, AI hardware evidence); investment/learning rescaled so the baseline organism path is unchanged - robustness.py: key readings hold for grounded dO and brackets on channel self-reinforcement and wealth conversion; P3 effect size grows at strong self-reinforcement - models/ParameterGrounding.md: register of grounded / bracketed / assumed / calibrated parameters, open grounding needs Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 1494246@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: caf6de6f-f9e4-47ce-a584-49baa271fa4b
76 lines
5.3 KiB
Markdown
76 lines
5.3 KiB
Markdown
<!--
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Created 2026-10-12 under ASSEMBLY-WP-0006-T02. A register of how each key
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GADM parameter is justified. Update it whenever a parameter is grounded,
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bracketed or changed.
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-->
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# Parameter Grounding Register
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**Status:** v0.1. Most GADM parameters are still assumptions. This register
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says which ones have evidence behind them, which are bracketed by
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sensitivity analysis only, and which are open.
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Status codes: **G** grounded in external evidence · **B** bracketed: not
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grounded, but key readings checked across a range · **A** assumed, not yet
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checked · **C** calibration choice (set to reproduce a target behaviour).
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| Parameter | Meaning | Value | Status | Basis |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| time unit | one period | 1 year | C | WP-0005-T01; implied timescales checked in `GADM-0.2.md` § 3.4 |
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| `dO` | depreciation of organism capability | 0.20 (range 0.15–0.35) per year; GADM-0.2/0.3: 0.06 | **G** | Software depreciates geometrically over roughly 3–10 years (CBO-based summary); business R&D capital depreciation is generally above the traditional 15 % (Li & Hall 2020, *Review of Income and Wealth* 66(1)); economic life of AI GPUs is about 2–6 years. Organism capability combines all three. |
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| `aO`, `ell`, `oseed` | organism investment, learning with use, seeding | 0.50, 0.83, 0.033 (×3.33) | C | Rescaled with `dO` so the baseline organism path stays as before (0.46 at t = 25, 0.37 at t = 100). The **level** of organism capability is therefore still ungrounded. |
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| `aext` | attention extraction | 0.275; GADM-0.2: 0.12 | **G** (order of magnitude) | ATUS 2023: 5.2 h/day leisure, 2.7 h TV; social media about 2 h 20 min/day. Engagement media take about half of discretionary time (`GADM-0.3.md` § 4.1). |
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| `r_k` | channel self-reinforcement | 0.3 (0.4 discovery) | **B** | Not grounded. Readings checked for 0.15–0.45 (`results/robustness.md`). |
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| `k_w` | wealth → control conversion | 0.04 | **B** | Not grounded. Readings checked for 0.02–0.20. |
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| `birth`, ageing and death rates | demography | 1/45; 1/20, 1/45, 1/15; 1/8 | C | Gives a stationary structure of about 23 / 51 / 17 / 9 % at replacement fertility, plausible for an aged high-income society. |
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| `hform` | durable capability formation | 0.15 | C | Chosen so children's durable capability settles near 0.6. |
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| `v0`, `aK`, `n1` | experimentation, capacity build, entry | 2.5, 0.35, 0.30 | C | Keep the GADM-0.2 baseline from collapsing (`GADM-0.2.md` § 3.4). |
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| all other rates | — | see code | A | First guesses in the 0.03–0.3 per-year range. |
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## Robustness of key readings (T02)
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`simulations/gadm02/results/robustness.md`, GADM-0.4 with cohorts and
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durable capability. Channel counters are recalibrated for every variant.
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| Reading | dO 0.06 → 0.20 | r 0.15 / 0.45 | k_w 0.02 / 0.20 |
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|---|---|---|---|
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| Generative regime best, automated capitalism worst | holds | holds | holds |
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| Scenario ranking (Spearman ρ vs. grounded) | 1.00 | 0.98 / 1.00 | 1.00 / 1.00 |
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| Generative regime has the lowest domination | holds | holds | holds |
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| Organism lever order lineage > membrane > attention | holds | holds | holds |
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| P3: full wealth tax lowers P by < 0.06 where membrane/lineage dominate | holds (−0.055) | holds (−0.035) / **fails (−0.078)** | holds |
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Readings:
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1. **Grounding `dO` changes almost nothing**, because the organism level was
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held fixed by rescaling. The GADM-0.2 Sobol result ("dO explains a third of
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baseline variance") really measures sensitivity to the **level** of
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organism capability, which `dO` sets together with investment and learning.
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That level is the next thing to ground, for example from AI-capital or
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task-automation shares.
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2. **The structural readings are robust** across the brackets for the two
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ungrounded power parameters.
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3. **P3 is robust in direction, but its size depends on r.** With strong
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self-reinforcement, market and political channels sit closer to their
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tipping points, so a wealth tax tips them down and becomes more effective
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(ΔP −0.078). Even then, total domination stays dominated by membrane and
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lineage control.
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## Open grounding needs
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1. The level of organism capability K_Ω (AI capital share, task-automation
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share).
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2. The channel self-reinforcement r_k (persistence of market leadership,
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platform tipping evidence).
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3. The wealth → influence conversion k_w (political-economy evidence on
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lobbying and influence).
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4. Durable capability formation `hform` and the ½ / ½ durable/current split
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(human-capital literature on the persistence of early education).
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## Sources
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- Li, W. C. Y. & Hall, B. H. (2020). Depreciation of Business R&D Capital. *Review of Income and Wealth* 66(1): 161–180. https://www.bea.gov/research/papers/2016/depreciation-business-rd-capital
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- BEA, Estimation of Software in the US National Accounts. https://www.bea.gov/sites/default/files/2018-05/Estimation-of-Software-in-the-US-National-Accounts.pdf
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- Software depreciation schedule (CBO-based summary). https://www.route-fifty.com/digital-government/2002/05/by-the-numbers/286193/
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- AI GPU economic life: https://siliconangle.com/2025/11/22/resetting-gpu-depreciation-ai-factories-bend-dont-break-useful-life-assumptions/ ; https://drops.mts.now/ai-capex/wiki/economics/gpu-depreciation/
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- BLS American Time Use Survey. https://www.bls.gov/news.release/PDF/atus.pdf
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