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assembly-economics/simulations/gadm02/results/matching_synthetic.md
tegwick 597eb4176e ASSEMBLY-WP-0012 finished: model matching (matching.py, observed series), flip definition and regime filter, synthetic test (negative: flips not yet reliable), FlipRegister, BR-009; residuals to WP-0017 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

Assistant: claude-code
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2026-10-13 20:33:38 +02:00

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GADM-0.4: matching and flip detection on synthetic data

Generated by simulations/gadm02/matching.py --synthetic (ASSEMBLY-WP-0012-T06). US calibrated state. Truth simulated from a known candidate (optionally switching regime at t_switch), observed biweekly as 25 × K_Ω with log-noise sd 0.03, from t 2 to t 8. Quarterly regime filter: the first year fixes the initial state and the scale (whole-path alignment); then every quarter each regime runs forward from the current state estimate over the last quarter, and the estimate advances with the best regime. Weights accumulate across quarters (forward filter, switch probability 0.02 per quarter). Level evidence: true K_Ω ± 0.075 (as wide as the real US target). Flip: new best with weight ≥ 0.75 twice in a row.

Indicators Truth Seed Best at first evaluation Flips detected (t, from → to) Verdict
adoption B3/loop off 1 B3/loop off none ok (no false flip)
adoption B3/loop off 2 B3/loop off 4.50: B3/loop off → B4/loop off; 7.75: B4/loop off → B3/loop off FALSE FLIP
adoption B3/loop off 3 B3/loop off 4.75: B4/loop off → B3/loop off FALSE FLIP
adoption + annual sentiment B3/loop off 1 B3/loop off none ok (no false flip)
adoption + annual sentiment B3/loop off 2 B3/loop off 4.50: B3/loop off → B4/loop off; 7.75: B4/loop off → B3/loop off FALSE FLIP
adoption + annual sentiment B3/loop off 3 B3/loop off 4.75: B4/loop off → B3/loop off FALSE FLIP
adoption B2/loop off 1 B4/loop on none ok (no false flip)
adoption B2/loop off 2 B3/loop on 8.00: B3/loop on → B2/loop off FALSE FLIP
adoption B2/loop off 3 B3/loop on none ok (no false flip)
adoption + annual sentiment B2/loop off 1 B4/loop on none ok (no false flip)
adoption + annual sentiment B2/loop off 2 B3/loop on none ok (no false flip)
adoption + annual sentiment B2/loop off 3 B3/loop on 8.00: B2/loop off → B4/loop on FALSE FLIP
adoption B2/loop off → B4/loop off at t 4.0 1 B4/loop on none missed
adoption B2/loop off → B4/loop off at t 4.0 2 B3/loop on none missed
adoption B2/loop off → B4/loop off at t 4.0 3 B3/loop on none missed
adoption + annual sentiment B2/loop off → B4/loop off at t 4.0 1 B4/loop on none missed
adoption + annual sentiment B2/loop off → B4/loop off at t 4.0 2 B3/loop on 4.50: B2/loop off → B4/loop off detected, delay 0.50 y
adoption + annual sentiment B2/loop off → B4/loop off at t 4.0 3 B3/loop on none missed
adoption B3/loop off → B3/loop on at t 4.0 1 B3/loop off none missed
adoption B3/loop off → B3/loop on at t 4.0 2 B3/loop off none missed
adoption B3/loop off → B3/loop on at t 4.0 3 B3/loop off none missed
adoption + annual sentiment B3/loop off → B3/loop on at t 4.0 1 B3/loop off none missed
adoption + annual sentiment B3/loop off → B3/loop on at t 4.0 2 B3/loop off 8.00: B3/loop off → B4/loop on missed
adoption + annual sentiment B3/loop off → B3/loop on at t 4.0 3 B3/loop off 7.25: B4/loop off → B3/loop on detected, delay 3.25 y