tegwick
78d79ac4e3
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
271 lines
17 KiB
Markdown
271 lines
17 KiB
Markdown
# Checkpoint indicator catalog
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**Status:** v0.2 (2026-10-13). v0.1 held only the light and full lists. v0.2
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adds a sensor bundle for every GADM stock (§ Stock sensor bundles), following
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`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`. IDs L1–L7 and F1–F8 are unchanged because
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recorded checkpoints refer to them. Only indicators with an entry in
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`sources.json` are fetched automatically. All others are collected by hand at
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reviews.
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Jurisdictions: **US**, **EU** (with Germany where available), **Argentina**
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(the owner's hypotheses: the EU lags, Argentina may thrive). Add others only
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with a reason.
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Mapping caveat: these indicators are *proxies*. None of them equals the model
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quantity. Band positions are judged from several proxies together, never from
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one.
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## Light checkpoint: adoption, investment, sentiment, legislation
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| # | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Primary source | Model quantity (proxy for) |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| L1 | Share of firms using AI to produce goods or services | US | U.S. Census Bureau, Business Trends and Outlook Survey (BTOS) | K_Ω adoption breadth |
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| L2 | Share of enterprises using AI technologies | EU, DE | Eurostat, ICT usage in enterprises (AI module) | K_Ω adoption breadth |
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| L3 | AI use by firms or workers | AR | INDEC / national ICT surveys, or OECD / IDB regional data | K_Ω adoption breadth |
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| L4 | Share of tasks or conversations by occupation; automation vs. augmentation | global, per country where published | Anthropic Economic Index; comparable usage indices | K_Ω task share, automation share |
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| L5 | AI-related investment (data-center capex, information-processing equipment) as share of GDP or of GDP growth | US, EU | BEA; Fed / central bank notes; company capex guidance | organism investment `aO` |
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| L6 | Public sentiment toward AI (benefit vs. harm, trust) | US, EU, AR | Pew Research; Eurobarometer; Edelman Trust Barometer; Latinobarómetro | sentiment Σ |
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| L7 | AI legislation milestones since the last checkpoint | US (federal and state), EU (AI Act implementation), AR | official journals; legislative trackers | legislation levers (permissiveness, `m`, `expl`) |
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## Full checkpoint: additions (annual)
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| # | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Primary source | Model quantity |
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|---|---|---|---|---|
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| F1 | Labour share of income | US, EU, AR | BLS / BEA, Eurostat, INDEC | claims breadth B, wage share |
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| F2 | Market concentration (top-firm sales shares, HHI) in digital sectors | US, EU | competition authorities, academic trackers | domination P (market, infrastructure channels) |
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| F3 | Leading-firm displacement / persistence | US | Bessen et al. series and updates | self-reinforcement r_k |
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| F4 | Time use: leisure, TV, social media | US (ATUS), EU (HETUS where available) | BLS ATUS; DataReportal | attention headroom A |
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| F5 | Informal care hours | US, EU | AARP/NAC; Eurofound | care load |
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| F6 | Displaced-worker re-employment by age | US | BLS Displaced Worker Survey (biennial) | senior agency modifiers |
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| F7 | Public R&D share of GDP; open-source investment initiatives | US, EU, DE | OECD MSTI; national data | commons investment IX |
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| F8 | Energy use of data centers | US, EU | IEA; national energy agencies | ecological draw of K_Ω (`e2`) |
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## Stock sensor bundles
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One bundle per GADM stock, with the four measure kinds from
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`metrics/MetricsCatalog.md`: **O** objective outcome, **St** structural,
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**B** behavioral, **Su** subjective. Most bundles reuse L and F indicators
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where they apply.
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Column *Access*: **api** = machine-readable source that can get a
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`sources.json` entry; **file** = downloadable tables without a stable API;
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**manual** = report, paywall or registration, collected by hand.
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**Fetched automatically (`sources.json`, `kind: full`, verified 2026-10-13):**
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H1 (US, DE, AR), H3 (US, DE, AR), H4 (EU, DE), K1 (US, EU, DE; AR as GDP per
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person employed), F1 (US; EU, DE via unit labour cost as a proxy), F-R1 (US),
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F-R2 (EU, DE), G4 (US quits rate), X2 (AR, open-access share = two counts),
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E1 (US, DE, AR), E2 (EU, DE), E4 (EU, DE). Everything else is collected by
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hand at reviews, even where a source is marked `api`. Probes failed for N1
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(no FRED series; use the Census BDS tables) and Q1 (the AI Incident Database
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has no simple REST endpoint). X1 is reachable, but the API gives package
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counts, not reuse, so it is not wired.
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Cadence: **a** annual, **q** quarterly, **m** monthly, **irr** irregular or
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multi-year survey waves. Bundles are collected at full (annual) checkpoints
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unless an L indicator already covers them.
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### H — Human capability
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| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| H1 | O | Healthy life expectancy (HALE) at birth | US, EU, DE, AR | WHO Global Health Observatory | api | a |
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| H2 | O | Adult literacy, numeracy, adaptive problem solving | US, DE (no AR) | OECD Survey of Adult Skills (PIAAC cycle 2) | file | irr |
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| H3 | St | Public expenditure on education, % of GDP | US, EU, DE, AR | World Bank WDI; UNESCO UIS | api | a |
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| H4 | B | Adult participation in learning (last 4 weeks) | EU, DE | Eurostat `trng_lfse_01` | api | a |
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| H5 | Su | Perceived freedom of choice and control over one's life | US, DE, AR | World Values Survey; Gallup World Poll (via World Happiness Report) | file | irr |
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Gaps: no unassisted-capability measure (MetricsCatalog link #40). Argentina
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is not in PIAAC; PISA covers only 15-year-olds.
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### X — Assembly commons
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| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| X1 | O | Reuse of open packages (dependents per package, top ecosystems) | global | ecosyste.ms; deps.dev | api | q |
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| X2 | St | Open-access share of research output | US, EU, DE, AR | OpenAlex | api | a |
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| X3 | B | Developers and git pushes per economy | US, DE, AR, EU members | GitHub Innovation Graph | file | q |
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| X4 | B | Maintainer continuity in critical projects | global | OpenSSF Scorecard; CHAOSS metrics | api | irr |
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| X5 | Su | Developers' ease of building on existing components | global, per country | Stack Overflow Developer Survey | file | a |
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| F7 | St | Public R&D share; open-source investment | US, EU, DE | OECD MSTI | api | a |
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### K_phys / K_Ω — Productive capacity and organism capability
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| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| L4 | O | AI task coverage by occupation; automation vs. augmentation | global | Anthropic Economic Index | manual | irr |
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| K1 | O | Labour productivity growth | US, EU, DE, AR | BLS; Eurostat `nama_10_lp_ulc`; ILOSTAT | api | q/a |
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| K2 | St | Installed supercomputing capacity per country | US, EU, DE | TOP500 | file | semiannual |
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| K3 | St | Number of independent developers of notable or frontier models | global, per country | Epoch AI data; Stanford AI Index | file | irr |
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| L5 | St | Investment in information-processing equipment | US | BEA via FRED | api | q |
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| L1–L3 | B | Firm adoption of AI | US, EU, DE, AR | BTOS; Eurostat; manual for AR | api / manual | 2-weekly / a |
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| K4 | Su | Workers' assessment of AI usefulness at work | US, EU | Pew Research; Eurofound | manual | irr |
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Report K together with B (F1) and P, as the MetricsCatalog requires.
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### F — Risk capacity
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| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| F-R1 | O | Business applications (high-propensity) | US | Census Business Formation Statistics via FRED | api | m |
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| F-R2 | O | Business registrations and bankruptcy declarations | EU, DE | Eurostat `sts_rb_q` | api | q |
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| F-R3 | O | Employer firm births and deaths | AR | Ministerio de Trabajo, OEDE (Observatorio de Empleo y Dinámica Empresarial) | file | q |
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| F-R4 | St | Insolvency and business-entry regime | US, DE, AR | World Bank B-READY | file | a |
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| F-R5 | B | Total early-stage entrepreneurial activity (TEA) | US, DE, AR | Global Entrepreneurship Monitor | file | a |
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| F-R6 | Su | Fear-of-failure rate | US, DE, AR | Global Entrepreneurship Monitor | file | a |
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Gap: no source separates founders without inherited wealth.
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### G — Effective agency
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| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| G1 | O | Intergenerational income mobility | US | Opportunity Insights | file | irr |
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| G2 | O | Re-employment of displaced workers by age | US | BLS Displaced Worker Survey (= F6) | file | biennial |
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| G3 | St | Data and service portability rules in force | EU, US, AR | EU Data Act, DMA; legislative trackers (with L7) | manual | irr |
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| G4 | B | Voluntary job switching: quits rate (US); job-to-job transitions (EU) | US, EU | BLS JOLTS via FRED; Eurostat LFS | api (US) / file (EU) | m / a |
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| H5 | Su | Perceived freedom of choice (shared with H) | US, DE, AR | WVS; Gallup | file | irr |
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Gap: restartability (time × cost × restrictions) has no direct source; it
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needs a composite built from F-R4, G2 and G4.
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### N — Diversity & composability
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| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| N1 | O | Firm entry and exit rates (business dynamism) | US | Census Business Dynamics Statistics | file | a |
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| N2 | O | Diversity of model publishers (entropy of downloads by organization) | global | Hugging Face Hub API | api | q |
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| F2 | St | Concentration per component class | US, EU | competition authorities, trackers | manual | a |
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| N3 | B | Multi-vendor use of AI models and clouds by firms | US, EU | vendor and analyst surveys | manual | irr |
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| N4 | Su | Perceived lock-in | global | Stack Overflow Developer Survey; Eurostat cloud module | file | a |
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Gap: interoperability test pass rates have no public series.
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### Q — Epistemic capacity
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| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| Q1 | O | Reported AI incidents and time to response | global | AI Incident Database | file | irr |
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| Q2 | St | Press freedom; freedom of academic and cultural expression | US, EU, DE, AR | RSF World Press Freedom Index; V-Dem | file | a |
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| Q3 | St | Concentration of news and information channels | US, DE, AR | Reuters Institute Digital News Report; StatCounter (search share) | file | a / m |
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| Q4 | B | Share of AI-mediated decisions with retrievable provenance | EU | AI Act transparency obligations (with L7) | manual | irr |
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| Q5 | Su | Trust in news and in AI-generated information | US, DE, AR | Reuters Institute Digital News Report; Edelman | file | a |
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Caveat: Q5 measures trust *levels*. Calibration (trust against reliability)
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needs Q1 or Q2 alongside. Disagreement between them is the finding.
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### P — Domination concentration (per channel)
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| ID | Kind | Channel | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| F2 | O | market | Top-firm shares, HHI in digital sectors | US, EU | competition authorities | manual | a |
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| P1 | St | infrastructure | Cloud infrastructure market shares | global, regional | Synergy Research; Canalys (press summaries) | manual | q |
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| P2 | St | discovery | Search engine market share | US, DE, AR | StatCounter Global Stats | file | m |
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| P3 | St | membrane | Mobile OS and browser shares | US, DE, AR | StatCounter Global Stats | file | m |
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| P4 | St | lineage | Share of notable models from the top three developers | global | Epoch AI; Stanford AI Index (with K3) | file | irr |
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| P5 | St | political | Lobbying spend of large technology firms | US, EU | OpenSecrets; EU Transparency Register | api | q / a |
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| P6 | B | — | Self-preferencing and exclusion decisions | US, EU | FTC, DOJ, European Commission DMA decisions | manual | irr |
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| P7 | Su | — | Perceived ability to contest decisions of platforms | EU | Eurobarometer (when asked) | manual | irr |
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### E — Ecological headroom
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| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| E1 | O | Territorial CO₂ emissions | US, EU, DE, AR | Global Carbon Budget; Our World in Data | api | a |
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| E2 | O | Domestic material consumption per capita | US, EU, DE, AR | Eurostat `env_ac_mfa` (EU, DE); UNEP IRP Global Material Flows (US, AR) | api / file | a |
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| E3 | St | Electricity mix (low-carbon share) | US, EU, DE, AR | Ember | api | m |
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| E4 | St | Circular material use rate | EU, DE | Eurostat `env_ac_cur` | api | a |
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| F8 | B | Data-center energy use | US, EU | IEA; national energy agencies | manual | a |
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Su is empty by design (MetricsCatalog).
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### S — Social cohesion
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| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| S1 | O | Political violence and protest events | US, AR | ACLED (registration) | manual | m |
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| S2 | St | Democracy and deliberation indices | US, EU, DE, AR | V-Dem | file | a |
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| S3 | B | Voter turnout in national elections | US, DE, AR | International IDEA | file | per election |
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| S4 | Su | Generalized interpersonal trust | US, DE, AR | World Values Survey; Latinobarómetro (AR) | file | irr / a |
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| S5 | Su | Trust in national institutions | US, EU, DE, AR | Pew; Eurobarometer; Latinobarómetro | file | a |
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### A — Attention headroom
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| ID | Kind | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| F4 | O | Time use: leisure, TV, social media | US, EU | BLS ATUS; Eurostat HETUS | api / file | a / irr |
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| A1 | O | Time use including unpaid care | AR | INDEC Encuesta Nacional de Uso del Tiempo (2021) | file | irr |
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| A2 | St | Rules on engagement design and default notifications | EU, US | DSA enforcement; state laws (with L7) | manual | irr |
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| A3 | B | Daily time on social media and on the internet | US, DE, AR | DataReportal (GWI survey) | manual | a |
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| A4 | Su | Reported time scarcity; perceived control over attention | US | Pew Research | manual | irr |
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Caveat: A3 measures captured attention. It is the inverse of A, not A
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itself (MetricsCatalog, Goodhart risk). F4 and A1 give self-directed time.
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## Coverage summary
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| Stock | O | St | B | Su | AR covered |
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| H | H1, H2 | H3 | H4 (EU only) | H5 | partly |
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| X | X1 | X2, F7 | X3, X4 | X5 | X2, X3 |
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| K | L4, K1 | K2, K3, L5 | L1–L3 | K4 | L3 manual |
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| F | F-R1–3 | F-R4 | F-R5 | F-R6 | yes |
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| G | G1, G2 (US only) | G3 | G4 | H5 | weak |
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| N | N1, N2 | F2 | N3 | N4 | no |
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| Q | Q1 | Q2, Q3 | Q4 | Q5 | yes |
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| P | F2 | P1–P5 | P6 | P7 | P2, P3 |
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| E | E1, E2 | E3, E4 | F8 | — | E1–E3 |
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| S | S1 | S2 | S3 | S4, S5 | yes |
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| A | F4, A1 | A2 | A3 | A4 | A1 only |
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Weakest bundles: G (restartability), N (composability) and Q (calibration).
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Their readings should carry wide uncertainty until better sources exist.
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## Coupling indicators (ASSEMBLY-WP-0011-T06)
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For the cross-border model (`models/CrossBorder.md`): foreign shares f per
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channel, the strength of host access rules, and frontier access.
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| ID | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| CB1 | Search and mobile-OS shares by operator, with operator home | US, EU members, AR | StatCounter monthly CSV (`chart.php?...&granularity=monthly&csv=1`) | file | m |
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| CB2 | DMA effect: EU-minus-US change of the leading search share since March 2024 | EU members vs. US | derived from CB1 (`cross_border.py`, `DMA_EXCESS`) | derived | q |
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| CB3 | Origin of deployed models: enterprise spend by developer; open-weight downloads by developer home | global, US, EU | Menlo Ventures, Ramp AI Index; Hugging Face Hub API | manual / api | irr / q |
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| CB4 | Cloud infrastructure share of non-domestic providers by region | EU, AR | Synergy Research regional releases | manual | q |
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| CB5 | Frontier access: share of firms using frontier models from abroad; export controls on chips and models | EU, AR | surveys; official journals (with L7) | manual | irr |
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CB2 is the observable for the access-rule strength a. At the 2026-10-13
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review it gave a ≈ 0 (at most 0.006 per year).
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## Investment indicator for the regime filter (ASSEMBLY-WP-0017-T06)
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| ID | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| L5b | Private construction put in place, Office (includes data centers), SAAR | US | Census Construction Spending, `https://www.census.gov/construction/c30/xlsx/release.xlsx`, Table 1 (second "Office" row = private) | file (fixed layout; last 5 months + year-ago month) | m |
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L5b is closer to organism investment than L5, which covers all
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information-processing equipment. The regime filter's reliability rests on
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an investment indicator (`research/ModelMatching.md` § 4.2). Hyperscaler
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capital expenditure (company filings) is a second candidate, but the 2026
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guidance figures conflict across sources and are not audited quarterly
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values.
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## Export indicator for Argentina (ASSEMBLY-WP-0016-T04)
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| ID | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| CB6 | Knowledge-based services exports (USD; % of GDP) | AR | INDEC, Balance of payments / knowledge-economy reports (USD 9.6 bn in 2025) | manual | q |
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CB6 tells whether Argentina moves toward the export path that would let it
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out-grow the EU on output (`models/CrossBorder.md` § 7): from about 4.5 % of
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GDP upward.
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## Dematerialization indicator (ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T01)
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| ID | Indicator | Jurisdiction | Source | Access | Cadence |
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| E5 | Resource productivity: GDP per kg of domestic material consumption (chain-linked 2015 EUR) | EU, DE | Eurostat `env_ac_rp` (wired in `sources.json`, kind full) | api | a |
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E5 constrains the rival share of organism output φ_r through the
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material-intensity trend (`models/GADM-0.5.md` § 5). Post-2024 values are the
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first that reflect generative-AI adoption.
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