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assembly-economics/simulations/gadm02/results/eco_classes.md
tegwick b62111ee3e ASSEMBLY-WP-0018-T02: ecological classes grounded (control variables, IEA compute load e2 0.0015, copper reserves); physical load on rival capacity; sinks breach disappears; BR-011 conflict sharpened 
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

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2026-10-14 01:55:19 +02:00

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GADM-0.5-dev: ecological resource classes across the band

Generated by simulations/gadm02/eco_classes.py (ASSEMBLY-WP-0007-T02). Floors 0.20 per class. Starting levels and loads: gadm05.py (priors from measured indicators). Crossing = first year below the floor. t = 100 levels.

Materials replenishment: none (strict depletion)

Scenario Anchor Er / Ed / Es t100 renewables below floor materials below floor sinks below floor lowest at t100
Baseline (current trends) B1 0.13 / 0.09 / 0.30 below at start t 50 — materials
Baseline (current trends) B2 0.17 / 0.14 / 0.36 below at start t 59 — materials
Baseline (current trends) B3 0.18 / 0.16 / 0.37 below at start t 70 — materials
Baseline (current trends) B4 0.18 / 0.16 / 0.37 below at start t 75 — materials
Generative regime B1 0.07 / 0.02 / 0.21 below at start t 33 — materials
Generative regime B2 0.08 / 0.03 / 0.21 below at start t 33 — materials
Generative regime B3 0.08 / 0.03 / 0.22 below at start t 34 — materials
Generative regime B4 0.09 / 0.04 / 0.23 below at start t 35 — materials
Attention oligopoly B1 0.20 / 0.18 / 0.40 below at start t 77 — materials
Attention oligopoly B2 0.21 / 0.20 / 0.41 below at start t 97 — materials
Attention oligopoly B3 0.21 / 0.20 / 0.41 below at start t 100 — materials
Attention oligopoly B4 0.20 / 0.20 / 0.40 below at start t 97 — materials

Materials replenishment: at rest today

Scenario Anchor Er / Ed / Es t100 renewables below floor materials below floor sinks below floor lowest at t100
Baseline (current trends) B1 0.13 / 0.47 / 0.30 below at start — — renewables
Baseline (current trends) B2 0.17 / 0.57 / 0.36 below at start — — renewables
Baseline (current trends) B3 0.18 / 0.58 / 0.37 below at start — — renewables
Baseline (current trends) B4 0.18 / 0.58 / 0.37 below at start — — renewables
Generative regime B1 0.07 / 0.32 / 0.21 below at start — — renewables
Generative regime B2 0.08 / 0.33 / 0.21 below at start — — renewables
Generative regime B3 0.08 / 0.34 / 0.22 below at start — — renewables
Generative regime B4 0.09 / 0.37 / 0.23 below at start — — renewables
Attention oligopoly B1 0.20 / 0.61 / 0.40 below at start — — renewables
Attention oligopoly B2 0.21 / 0.64 / 0.41 below at start — — renewables
Attention oligopoly B3 0.21 / 0.63 / 0.41 below at start — — renewables
Attention oligopoly B4 0.20 / 0.62 / 0.40 below at start — — renewables

Organism growth: class draw attributable to adoption speed (baseline, B4 − B1)

Relative change of each class between t 0 and t 50, B4 minus B1 (negative = organisms draw more).

Materials replenishment renewables materials sinks order (most hit first)
none -0.000 +0.000 -0.001 sinks > renewables > materials
at rest -0.000 +0.000 -0.001 sinks > renewables > materials