assembly-economics/workplans/ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-reality-checkpoints.md

id	type	title	domain	repo	status	flavor	depends_on	owner	topic_slug	created	updated	state_hub_workstream_id
ASSEMBLY-WP-0010	workplan	Reality checkpoints: indicators, prediction register, recurring comparison	communication	assembly-economics	active	implementation		claude-code	coulomb-social	2026-10-12	2026-10-13	a878617a-bde6-5690-9b8d-f44c72f253dc

Reality checkpoints: indicators, prediction register, recurring comparison

Implements research/ScenarioBandMethod.md § 6: regular comparison of the adoption band and model readings with observed economic, sociological and technical data, per jurisdiction where possible.

Checkpoint indicator catalog

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T01
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "52cb88b0-9a5c-583f-a983-4b331f255f9e"

Map model stocks and levers to observable indicators and data sources, per jurisdiction where available. Examples: AI use shares of enterprises and workers, AI investment, labour share, concentration, time use, care hours, displaced-worker re-employment, trust and sentiment surveys, AI legislation trackers. Store in checkpoints/IndicatorCatalog.md, linked to metrics/MetricsCatalog.md.

Done 2026-10-13: catalog v0.2 has sensor bundles (O/St/B/Su) for all eleven stocks, with jurisdiction, source, access class and cadence, and a coverage summary. The weakest bundles are G, N and Q. Wiring sources is T08.

Checkpoint protocol and prediction register format

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T02
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "f03b5bbe-a40f-54a6-a77f-cdf18cc77950"

Write checkpoints/README.md (protocol, method § 6) and checkpoints/predictions.md (an append-only register of pre-registered predictions and their later observations).

Baseline checkpoint 2026-Q4

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T03
status: done
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "2d236d7f-05b4-5219-aa40-7d83cce10bae"

Collect current values of the catalog indicators. This is checkpoint 0, the reference against which later observations are compared. Record where each jurisdiction sits relative to the band today.

Recurring checkpoint schedule

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T04
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "ef899d58-d010-55f1-8f1e-7cef95f90fab"

Set up the cadence (quarterly light, annual full). Each checkpoint is a dated record in checkpoints/. An automated reminder or scheduled agent run needs the owner's approval, so this task waits on that decision.

Done 2026-10-12 (founder-approved): activity-core definitions assembly-checkpoint-* (setup daily 13–15 Oct 2026, monthly Nov–Dec 2026, quarterly, annual) are projected through the activity-core GitOps lane (commit f9f2640, ArgoCD synced). They are executed by the rein-aharness approach assembly-checkpoint (commit 06bd08c), with data via web-fetcher. Checkpoint 0 was produced end to end (checkpoints/2026/2026-10-12-light.md). Decision: docs/decisions/2026-10-12-checkpoint-origin-publication.md.

Governed execution profile before legacy routing expires

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T05
status: todo
priority: high
state_hub_task_id: "1084162d-eb52-53c8-b58e-c4ef3b57b788"

The assembly-checkpoint approach runs on rein-aharness legacy (profile-absent) routing, which is allowed until 2026-12-31. Coordinate with rein-aharness and glas-harness on a governed execution profile and a path-scoped publish grant. Re-arm close-down checklist row 20 accordingly. Deadline: 2026-12-15, before the last monthly run.

Disable transitional definitions after 2026

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T06
status: wait
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "61e42cad-8821-546e-b746-525678030ece"

After 2026-12-31, set enabled: false for assembly-checkpoint-setup-daily and assembly-checkpoint-monthly-2026 (domain files and the activity-core projection), then run the GitOps lane and the admin sync. The window guard makes this harmless if late. Waits until January 2027.

Publish web-fetcher on Forgejo and register it

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T07
status: wait
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "eddbae28-d03f-59f7-bff0-59de3bd43418"

The founder creates coulomb/web-fetcher on forgejo.coulomb.social (push-to-create is disabled). Then: push from the workstation, repoint the railiance01 checkout (currently cloned from a git bundle) to origin, and register the repo with the State Hub (statehub register).

Machine-readable sources for full-checkpoint bundles

id: ASSEMBLY-WP-0010-T08
status: done
priority: medium
state_hub_task_id: "85cb9eb0-911e-57ec-9cf0-ef886b3589bb"

For each catalog v0.2 indicator marked api or file, check that web-fetcher can retrieve it and add a sources.json spec (kind: full) with an adapter. Mark any that fail as manual in the catalog. Do this before the first annual full checkpoint. Full runs pick up every spec, so test each adapter with --no-llm before committing.

Done 2026-10-13: 22 kind: full specs, all probed live with web-fetcher. A full fetch returns 36 observations: 31 ok, and 5 not_found, which are the manual light specs. The catalog lists the automated IDs and corrects the access class of N1, Q1, G4 and E2. The X2 publication year is fixed in the URL and must be moved forward at each annual review.