assembly-economics/models/GADM-CLD.md

GADM Causal Structure — Causal-Loop Diagram and Link Table

Status: v0.1 for GADM-0.1 plus the GADM-0.2 additions, exploratory.

1. Causal-loop diagram

Solid arrows are GADM-0.1. Dotted arrows are the GADM-0.2 organism additions. Edge labels give the polarity: + means same direction, − means opposite direction.

flowchart LR
  H[H Human capability] -->|+| V
  X[X Assembly commons] -->|+| V
  F[F Risk capacity] -->|+| V
  G[G Effective agency] -->|+| V
  N[N Diversity & composability] -->|+| V
  Q[Q Epistemic capacity] -->|+| V
  P[P Domination] -->|−| V
  V((V Experimentation)) -->|+| VS((V_sel Selected))
  SIG((σ Selection quality)) -->|+| VS
  VS -->|+ via ρ| X
  VS -->|+| K[K Productive capacity]
  K -->|+| Y((Y* Output))
  E[E Ecological headroom] -->|+| Y
  Y -->|+| I((I Claims))
  I -->|+| D((D Demand))
  S[S Social cohesion] -->|+| D
  D -->|+| SIG
  I -->|+ existence security| G
  F -->|+ restartability| G
  P -->|−| G
  VS -->|+ private return| P
  P -->|+ network effects| P
  Q -->|− checks| P
  X -->|− interoperability| P
  K -->|− throughput| E
  G -->|+| S
  P -->|−| S
  X -->|+| H
  S -->|+| H
  X -->|+| Q
  P -->|−| Q
  V -->|− if V > Q| Q
  V -->|+ entry| N
  P -->|−| N
  X -->|+ standards| N

  Ko[K_Ω Organism capability] -.->|+| V
  Ko -.->|+ learning with use| Ko
  VS -.->|+| Ko
  Ko -.->|+ membrane & lineage control| P
  Ko -.->|− deskilling| H
  Ko -.->|− lock-in| G
  Ko -.->|− monoculture| N
  Ko -.->|− labor share| I
  Ko -.->|− compute draw| E
  Ko -.->|− extraction| A[A Attention headroom]
  A -.->|+ adoption| SIG
  A -.->|+| H
  A -.->|+| S
  I -.->|+ recovery| A

2. Loops

ID	Type	Path	Reading
R1	reinforcing	X → V → V_sel → X	Generative reuse. Commons enable experiments, and selected experiments become commons. Strength depends on ρ.
R2	reinforcing	V_sel → K → Y* → I → D → σ → V_sel	Demand-backed growth. Works only while claims stay broad.
R3	reinforcing	V_sel → P (private return) → P (network effects)	Success becomes control (GADM-0.1 § 13). Path closure when unchecked.
R4	reinforcing	Y* → I → G → V → V_sel → K → Y*	Agency-backed growth. Existence security widens who can attempt.
R5	reinforcing	G → S → D → σ → V_sel → K → Y* → I → G	Cohesion. Legitimate participation sustains demand and selection.
R6	reinforcing	X → Q → V → V_sel → X	Epistemic commons. Open evidence improves the experiments that feed the commons.
R7 (0.2)	reinforcing	K_Ω → K_Ω (learning with use)	Organism learning. Organisms improve fastest where they are used most.
R8 (0.2)	reinforcing	K_Ω → P → G, S → D → V_sel → K_Ω	Lineage concentration. Combined with R7, this is the natural-monopoly loop of the mapping note's open question 1.
B1	balancing	P → V → V_sel → P (private return)	Domination throttles its own source. High P shrinks experimentation, which slows the success that feeds P. Weak relative to R3.
B2	balancing	K → E → Y* → I → D → V_sel → K	Ecological limit. Throughput erodes headroom and caps output.
B3	balancing	V → Q → V (when V > Q)	Epistemic brake. Experimentation that outruns model correction degrades Q, which slows V (GADM-0.1 § 15).
B4	balancing	Q → P → Q (checks)	Accountability. Epistemic capacity checks domination, and domination captures information. In the model, a reinforcing pair in disguise: whichever wins compounds.
B5 (0.2)	balancing	K_Ω → A → σ → V_sel → K_Ω	Attention limit. Extraction depletes the attention that adoption and selection need.
B6 (0.2)	balancing	K_Ω → I (labor share) → D → V_sel → K_Ω	Demand erosion. Automation without broad claims undermines its own demand.

3. Link table

Conf. is confidence in the sign: H (stated in GADM-0.1 or definitional), M (plausible, inferred from GADM text), L (contested). Src. is the source section in GADM-0.1, or the mapping note (MN).

#	Source	Target	Sign	Mechanism	Conf.	Src.
1	H	V	+	capability to attempt	H	§ 5
2	X	V	+	reusable components	H	§ 5
3	F	V	+	risk-bearing capacity	H	§ 5
4	G	V	+	effective freedom to attempt	H	§ 5
5	N	V	+	recombination potential	H	§ 5
6	Q	V	+	model quality	H	§ 5
7	P	V	−	gatekeeping	H	§ 5
8	V	V_sel	+	definitional	H	§ 6
9	σ	V_sel	+	definitional	H	§ 6
10	V_sel	X	+	preservation via ρ	H	§ 7
11	P	X	−	enclosure L_X	M	§ 7
12	V_sel	K	+	commercial conversion	H	§ 8
13	K	Y*	+	definitional	H	§ 8
14	E	Y*	+	ecological constraint f(E)	H	§ 8
15	Y*	I	+	claims on output	H	§ 9
16	I	D	+	purchasing power	H	§ 10
17	S	D	+	social confidence	H	§ 10
18	D	σ (market)	+	adoption	M	§ 19
19	I	G	+	existence security	H	§ 12
20	F	G	+	restartability	M	§ 12
21	P	G	−	domination term	H	§ 12
22	V_sel	P	+	private return → control	H	§ 13
23	P	P	+	network effects, capture	H	§ 13
24	Q	P	−	checks (audit, evidence)	M	§ 13
25	X	P	−	interoperability	M	§ 13
26	K	E	−	physical throughput	H	§ 14
27	G	S	+	agency, future opportunity	H	§ 17
28	P	S	−	domination, lack of voice	H	§ 17
29	X	H	+	education, transfer T_g	M	§§ 11, 18
30	S	H	+	care, participation	M	§ 11
31	X	Q	+	open evidence, research infrastructure	M	§ 15
32	P	Q	−	information capture	H	§ 15
33	V	Q	− (if V > Q)	experimentation outruns correction	L	§ 15
34	V	N	+	entry	M	§ 16
35	P	N	−	monoculture, lock-in	H	§ 16
36	X	N	+	open standards	M	§ 16
37	K_Ω	V	+	cheap experiments, gated by Q	M	MN § 3.1
38	K_Ω	K_Ω	+	learning with use	M	MN § 1
39	K_Ω	P	+	membrane control, lineage concentration (moderated by m, L)	M	MN § 3.5
40	K_Ω	H	−	deskilling (moderated by m)	L	MN § 2
41	K_Ω	G	±	access (+, with m) vs. lock-in (−, without m)	L	MN § 2
42	K_Ω	N	−	monoculture (moderated by L)	M	MN § 2
43	K_Ω	I (labor share)	−	automation	H	MN § 3.4
44	K_Ω	E	−	compute draw	M	MN § 4
45	K_Ω	A	−	extraction (moderated by x_att)	M	MN § 4
46	K_Ω	Q	±	audit/research (+, with expl) vs. opacity (−)	L	MN § 2
47	A	σ (market)	+	adoption needs attention	M	MN § 4
48	A	H, S	+	self-directed development, participation	M	MN § 4
49	I	A	+	economic security frees attention	L	new

Contested links (Conf. L)

• #33. GADM-0.1 states the damage hypothesis qualitatively. GADM-0.2 implements it as a degradation of Q proportional to max(0, V − Q). The threshold form is a modeling choice.
• #40, #41, #46. The sign depends on institutional levers. GADM-0.2 makes this explicit: membrane control m and explainability expl switch the dominant sign.
• #49. Not in either source. Introduced so that precarity reduces attention headroom. Needs empirical grounding (WS-14).