tegwick
e05c8f100f
Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5.5 <noreply@anthropic.com> Assistant: claude-code Assistant-Model: opus Assistant-Process: 14913@bnt-lap001 Assistant-Session: add7ef69-b901-4756-9a67-34cf1125d96f
25 lines
4.8 KiB
Markdown
25 lines
4.8 KiB
Markdown
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Living register of qualitative breaks found when probing scenarios across the
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adoption band (research/ScenarioBandMethod.md § 5). Entries are append-only;
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resolution status is updated in place.
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-->
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# Break Register
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A **qualitative break** means a reading changes sign, ranking or regime
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within the adoption band. Each entry records where the break occurs, what it
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suggests, and whether the model needs a qualitatively different structure in
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that part of the band.
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| ID | Found | Reading | Where | Interpretation | Model consequence | Status |
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
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| BR-001 | 2026-10-12 (WP-0009-T02) | Dividend abundance and commons-rich economy keep P ≤ 0.7 | holds at B1, breaks from B2 | moderate reforms suffice only under conservative adoption | none structural; policy sufficiency is band-dependent | open: report per anchor |
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| BR-002 | 2026-10-12 (WP-0009-T02) | Floors under concentrated lineages (P) and attention extraction (A) | breach from B3; attention oligopoly breaches A at B4 | threshold crossings scale with adoption speed | none structural; checkpoints should watch these floors first | open: report per anchor |
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| BR-003 | 2026-10-12 (WP-0009-T02) | Dominant domination channel in the generative regime | market at B1–B3 → lineage at B4 | under self-enhancement, the available lineage levers (L, m ≤ 0.8) no longer bound lineage control | **structural candidate:** public/commons lineages, compute commons, mandated lineage interoperability; possibly open-economy lineage import | open: candidate for a qualitatively different model |
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| BR-004 | 2026-10-12 (WP-0009-T01) | K_Ω trajectory shape | peak-and-decline for selfenh ≤ 3; saturation at selfenh ≥ 6 | a stronger inner loop escapes the demand/domination brake | check the shape against data (WP-0010); the saturating regime may need different demand dynamics | open |
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| BR-005 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0009-T03) | Effect of the legitimacy loop on organism adoption | damping at B1–B3 → oscillation (boom, backlash, partial recovery) at B4, and at B2–B3 with a fast, strong response | sentiment falls faster than legislation follows when the inner loop is strong | none structural yet; polarization, captured legislation (Ppol) and open-economy import may change it | open: test the sentiment response against L6 |
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| BR-006 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0013-T04) | Legitimacy loop damps adoption (BR-005, AdoptionBand § 3.3) | damping under extractive regimes → amplifying under rights-first levers from the calibrated start (US, AR) | when adoption lowers domination, perceived benefit rises and sentiment accelerates adoption | none structural; the reading is regime-dependent | open: state the loop's effect per regime |
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| BR-007 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0013-T04) | Rights-first levers bound domination | holds when switching to J1 levers (US: P 0.64 → 0.54) → fails for a jurisdiction already at J1 levers (EU: P 0.65 → 0.77) | calibrated domination comes from levels set abroad that local levers cannot reach | **structural:** cross-border coupling (ASSEMBLY-WP-0011) | open |
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| BR-008 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0011-T05) | Which levers bound domination (BR-007 follow-up) | closed model: host rights levers → coupled model: only host access rules on foreign operators and the home's levers reach the foreign-run channels | measured channels (Pd, Pmem, Plin, Pi) are operated from the US for EU and AR hosts | **structural, implemented:** cross-border coupling (`world.py`); observed DMA effect on search ≈ 0 (at most a 0.006/yr) | update 2026-10-13 (WP-0016-T01): a host lineage access rule does reach imported-lineage concentration (EU Plin 0.91 → 0.19 at a 0.15); portability needs the domestic lineage market's concentration (CB3) |
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| BR-009 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0012) | Sentiment dynamics of the legitimacy loop | Σ relaxes toward 0.5 + gain × Δ(perceived benefit), so from the measured US Σ 0.285 it rises → measured US sentiment fell 2021–2026 (0.405 → 0.285) while adoption grew fast | the neutral reference 0.5 is an assumption; US adoption also shows no braking by low sentiment (all loop-on candidates fail the US match) | **resolved 2026-10-13 (WP-0017-T01):** parameter `sig_ref`; calibrated runs anchor Σ at its measured level, and adoption and legislation respond to changes relative to it. Default (None = 0.5) keeps earlier results. R1–R4 and H1/H2 verdicts unchanged; the matching loop weights become ≈ 0.5 | resolved; `sig_adopt` not yet identified |
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| BR-010 | 2026-10-13 (WP-0007-T01) | Non-rival growth decouples welfare from throughput (core hypothesis, GADM-0.1 § 14) | output split rival / non-rival (GADM-0.5-dev): no genuine decoupling in any anchor; the generative regime's ecological cost unchanged | GADM has no demand composition: non-rival output adds to, but never replaces, rival consumption | **structural candidate:** demand substitution (dematerialization) and ecological classes (WP-0007-T02, T04) | open |
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