CB-WP-0039: a seat that does not regulate — and it changes H1's verdict

CB-EV-0030 concluded H1's DARVO arm rate was still 0. That was true of the
panel, and the panel was greedy-family throughout. GreedyPolicy ranks
`Ground if gated => 100`, so it grounds the instant the stress gate bites,
Stress plateaus at 3, and the arm at 5 is unreachable by construction. "H1
does nothing" was really "H1 does nothing to a seat that already manages
its Stress" — and H1 was written for the seat that does not.

`reactive` is greedy with exactly one preference changed: GROUND demoted
below ATTACK. Under it, H1's criteria 1 and 2 are MET — DARVO arms 400
times per cell, ATTACK is chosen 3 times per seat per game. Criterion 3
fails harder: reactive wins nothing at any seat count.

The larger finding is about the baseline. Greedy and reactive play
IDENTICALLY under baseline, and peak Stress across 3,200 baseline games
was 1 — against a starting value of 2. The gate at 4, the DARVO arm at 5
and the Freedom token are all unreachable, and a policy built to be
reckless with Stress is indistinguishable from one built to husband it.
That is a deeper account of F17 than F17 has. Not raised as a finding yet:
it wants the plural panel first.

A constant was investigated rather than reported: darvo was exactly 400 in
every cell while atk scaled with seats. Six-player final Stress is
[5,5,4,4,4,4] every seed — H1-B holds the attacker at 4, below the arm,
and pushes its targets to 5. The self-soothe suppresses DARVO in the
aggressor and concentrates it in the attacked. The direction follows from
H1-B's arithmetic; the number 2 is partly an artifact of reactive's
first-legal targeting, and is labelled as such.

Still unreviewed: tier L review outstanding on CB-WP-0038, and nothing
here reaches ground-game until it runs.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>

specs/ChaosRollHistory.md

@@ -64,6 +64,7 @@ it recurs; not evidence of anything on its own.
 | 8 | CB-WP-0036 (re-declared L→M) | d8 = 7 | — |
 | 9 | CB-WP-0037 | d8 = 1 | — |
 | 10 | CB-WP-0038 | **d8 = 8** | **yes — redraw L, structural was L, so it changed nothing** |
+| 11 | CB-WP-0039 | d8 = 2 | — |
 
 **The window's first 8, at declaration 10.** Expectation over ten rolls at
 d8 is 1.25; one is exactly on rate.
@@ -71,7 +72,7 @@ d8 is 1.25; one is exactly on rate.
 **The override changed nothing**, which is the observation ADR-0017 D2's
 retirement condition is built from — it needs *a full window whose
 overrides all change nothing*, in two consecutive windows. This window now
-has one qualifying override and two declarations left to run.
+has one qualifying override and **one declaration left to run**.
 
 **Declaration 8 is a re-declaration of the same workplan**, counted
 separately because it was a materially different pass: CB-WP-0036 was