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T06: raise the chaos roll to d4 for a 12-declaration calibration window

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The mechanism never fired. Two rolls across two workplans (9, then 2)
against ~0.2 expected firings at d10. At ~2 tier decisions per workplan
it would take roughly twenty workplans to see four overrides -- a rate
that prevents its own evaluation, which T06 named as the one option to
reject.

Raised to d4 for the next 12 tier declarations, then kept, reverted to
d10, or deleted on the evidence. Expected ~3 firings.

Cost stated up front rather than discovered: a chaos-L override on
S-shaped work buys a full survey + review + ADR, and the comparable
measured figure is CB-WP-0001 T03 at $9.91. The window should cost
$20-30. Cheaper than carrying an unevaluated ritual indefinitely.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
This commit is contained in:
tegwick 2026-07-31 09:24:12 +02:00
parent db731aa0bc
commit ced573ba75
2 changed files with 23 additions and 4 deletions
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25
specs/InnerLoop.md
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@ -46,10 +46,29 @@ are never skipped for code-producing work.
| **M** | Survey and ADR merged into one document; review optional | Touches a canonical interface, or adds/updates an external dependency |
| **S** | One provenance paragraph in the commit message | Everything else (utilities, fixes, refactors inside a boundary) |
**The chaos roll.** After deriving the structural tier, roll d10
(`shuf -i 1-10 -n 1`). On a **10**, the tier is instead picked uniformly at
**The chaos roll.** After deriving the structural tier, roll **d4**
(`shuf -i 1-4 -n 1`). On a **4**, the tier is instead picked uniformly at
random (`shuf -e S M L -n 1`), overriding the structural derivation — up or
down. Both rolls are recorded in the tier declaration
down.
> **Calibration window, opened 2026-07-31 (CB-WP-0003 T06).** The rate was
> d10 and the mechanism **never fired**: two rolls across two workplans
> (CB-WP-0001: 9, CB-WP-0002: 2), against ~0.2 expected firings. At d10 and
> ~2 tier decisions per workplan it would take roughly twenty workplans to
> observe four overrides, so the mechanism was set at a rate that prevented
> its own evaluation — the one option T06 ruled out.
>
> Raised to **d4 (25%) for the next 12 tier declarations**, then evaluated
> and either kept, returned to d10, or deleted. Expected ~3 firings in the
> window, which is enough to see whether an overridden tier produces a
> different outcome than the argued one.
>
> **Stated cost:** a chaos-L override on work that would have been S buys a
> full survey, adversarial review, and ADR. Measured comparable: CB-WP-0001
> T03 (a tier-L survey) cost **$9.91**. At 25% over 12 declarations the
> window is expected to cost **$20–30**. That is the price of finding out
> whether the mechanism is worth keeping, and it is cheaper than carrying an
> unevaluated ritual indefinitely. Both rolls are recorded in the tier declaration
(`tier: M (structural L, chaos 10→M)`). **Record the roll every time,
including when it changes nothing** (`tier: L (structural L, chaos 4)`),
so a mechanism that never fires is visible rather than assumed. Purpose:

2
workplans/CB-WP-0003-loop-hardening.md
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@ -234,7 +234,7 @@ Unblocked: depends on CB-WP-0002, now complete.
```task
id: CB-WP-0003-T06
status: todo
status: done
priority: low
state_hub_task_id: "8f3a6147-54e8-48f9-8543-c13b0e0b0278"
```