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7a374d37d2 CB-WP-0004 T05: control loop — 6 points recovered, not 25-30
cb-cost gains --since, so the baseline (--pin 578dcbe, 662 responses,
$135.60) and this pass (--since 578dcbe, 83 responses, $7.82) are two
disjoint windows over the same transcripts. Every verdict is on share of
pass, since the windows differ 17x in size.

Test 1 — did mechanical turns disappear? Partly. Mechanical share fell
38.2% -> 32.4%. Six points against a predicted 25-30; reported unmet, and
no target was moved in this commit.

  environment setup   11.5% -> 0.6%   (85 turns -> 1)   met, decisively
  hub + workplan      8.5%  -> 0.0%   (46 turns -> 0)   met
  text patching       10.4% -> 9.6%                     not met
  orientation         5.1%  -> 21.2%                    not met, worse

The confound is stated before any defence of the numbers: this is the
pass that built the tools, and the two categories that missed are exactly
the two whose tools were under construction. The clean test is the next
pass, and it is carried forward rather than waived.

Test 2 — did the work relocate? Not into prose. Output tokens per
response fell 896 -> 681. Output's rising share of cost is a shrinking
denominator, not more writing. Cost per response halved and the evidence
refuses to claim it: that is compaction (mean context 232,982 ->
117,822), and attributing it to tooling would repeat CB-WP-0002's
original error in a new direction.

Test 3 — did quality hold? Yes, recorded as explicit judgment. make all
green with two gates that did not exist before, and four findings
surfaced this pass, three caught by controls written this pass — one of
them a 5.2x attribution error that would have reached the hub as a
measured number.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-31 10:27:09 +02:00
53c460c992 CB-WP-0004 T04: fact registry and make facts-check — DFD gets a gate
Duplicated-fact drift is the fourth error class and the only one with no
executable rule. No positive control catches it (both copies are
internally consistent) and re-derivation does not either (the copy
reproduces whatever it was copied from). It is caught only by reading a
copy against its source, which nothing in the loop required.

facts.toml holds 15 facts and is GENERATED by `make facts-gen` from
cb-cost, dep-weight and rule-coverage. The trap this task named — a
hand-maintained registry that becomes another drifting copy — is closed
by facts-check re-running the instruments and failing when the committed
registry disagrees with them. A stale registry cannot certify stale
artifacts.

An artifact quoting a fact tags it: **$93.15** <!-- fact --> with the key.
17 occurrences across 5 artifacts are now checked.

Falsified before being believed: changing CostAccounting.md line 158 from
$93.15 to $92.87 — the exact historical drift — produced exit 1 naming
the file, the line and the expected value. Tested against the class it
exists to catch, on a real artifact, not only in its self-test.

It then caught a live tag inside its own documentation example in
InnerLoop.md within the hour. Third time a gate has failed on its own
pass's work.

What it does not close is stated rather than implied: 22 untagged literal
copies remain and are reported, not failed. Tagging is opt-in, a number
can legitimately recur, and a gate that fires on coincidence gets routed
around. Naming the uncovered surface beats claiming the class is closed.

InnerLoop single-source-of-fact moves from prose to executable — v1.3.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-31 10:24:39 +02:00
db731aa0bc T11: dated rates and staleness become data, ahead of the 2026-08-31 flip
The price sheet had two defects of one shape -- a schema that could not
hold the fact it needed, the same criticism the cost survey levelled at
the State Hub.

  CA-16  time-boxed rates are DATA. Sonnet's intro price lived in a
         `# intro ...` comment and was invisible to the collector that
         reads the file. Now promo_input/promo_output/promo_until,
         applied per response at its own timestamp.
  CA-17  the 90-day staleness rule was prose in MetricsAndScenarios 1a
         that every M-D2-CST verdict silently inherited. Now `recorded`
         + `max_age_days` in the sheet, and a stale sheet ABORTS.

Both are exercised by make cost-test: the promo rate must apply before
2026-08-31 and lapse after, and a 102-day-old sheet must trip.

Applying CA-16 moved AC-1 from $93.32 to $93.15 -- the $0.17 CB-EV-0002
predicted, now collected rather than noted. That is a legitimate
retarget under T07's distinction: the instrument disproved the target,
and its output is in this commit. The number has now been stated five
times ($248.46, $92.21, $92.87, $93.32, $93.15), each correction from a
different mechanism.

Evidence tables regenerated from the tool rather than hand-patched,
per CA-15 -- which is the rule that exists because hand-typed tables
were the only thing the adversarial review found wrong.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-31 09:23:29 +02:00
c0eef604e8 T05: CB-EV-0002 — all 9 metrics met, and /compact measured at 3.1x
AC-1 $93.32 ($92.21 main + $1.11 subagent), residual $0.000000. No
unmeasured rows. Composition: 88.0% cache, 11.9% output, 249:1 context
re-read to text written.

The question that could not be answered before: what /compact costs.
The transcript records it directly — 542,991 -> 19,974 tokens, a 27x
reduction. Cost per turn fell from $0.457 (136 turns before) to $0.149
(202 turns after). The 202 post-compact turns cost less than half the
136 before them.

This qualifies CB-WP-0003 T04: sessions are bounded-quadratic, not
quadratic. Cost grows with context between compactions and resets at
each one, so the failure mode is a long UNCOMPACTED session. Whether a
fresh session beats a compaction is now measurable, and T04 should
measure it before prescribing one task per session.

Stale $0.66/$92.87 targets updated across survey and workplan.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-31 08:51:50 +02:00
72c594ee49 CI: enforce every gate; close the silent-skip holes
The gates existed; CI ran half of them and tolerated the failure case.

- cb-sim no longer has a "tolerable" non-zero exit. An unregistered game
  prefix is a failure, and a run in which nothing executed is a failure.
  Previously CI carried `|| test $? -eq 2`, so renaming a scenario prefix
  would have skipped every scenario while the pipeline stayed green.
  Verified with a negative control.
- CI now runs make coverage (AM-1) and make dep-weight (AM-4), both
  added after CI was written and neither enforced until now.
- dep-weight enforces its targets instead of only reporting them.
- CI lints the shipped-runtime configuration separately, so the feature
  split cannot rot unnoticed.
- Dropped the stale `make deps` target, which still measured the retired
  crate-count metric.

The positive-control rule is now executable: CI runs
`cargo bench -- --test`, which executes every benchmark once, so a
workload that stalls fails the build.

That step immediately found a fourth instance of the error class it was
written for. The committed replay benchmark was the broken version — an
earlier patch never applied, leaving a command sequence that omits
Resolve, so every round produced nothing and the log-building loop spun
forever. It had never run to completion; the reported AM-7 replay
numbers came from a probe test instead. Fixed, given the same positive
control as the round loop, and re-measured from the benchmark: 100k
events fold in 2.18ms (95% CI 2.14-2.23), against a 5s budget.

Evidence now reports confidence intervals rather than point estimates,
so the 3% regression rule in MetricsAndScenarios is enforceable.

The finding worth carrying: writing the positive-control rule into
InnerLoop v1.0 did not prevent the next instance. Making it a CI step
did.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-31 04:02:33 +02:00
4be6e020ea AM-4: gate scenario YAML, retarget on audited source, re-measure
Some checks failed
ci / check (push) Failing after 3s
Adopts both remediations from CB-EV-0001 §4 (maintainer decision).

Option A — serde_yaml is now optional behind cb-game-runtime's
`scenarios` feature. The scenario module, the ScenarioGame impl and the
string parsers behind it are cfg-gated; cb-sim opts in explicitly. Both
configurations compile and lint clean under -D warnings.

A trap worth recording: `default-features = false` on a *member*
dependency is silently ignored when the workspace dependency does not
specify it. The first attempt gated nothing while looking correct — the
build succeeded and cargo tree still showed all six YAML crates. Fixed
by setting it on the workspace dependency. This is the positive-control
failure mode in miniature: success was not evidence the change applied.

Retarget — AM-4 now measures third-party source under audit, split by
build configuration, replacing a crate count that was unreachable
without undoing K5/K7 and that does not compare across ecosystems.

Re-measured via the new `make dep-weight`, whose own positive control
refuses to report when any crate's source cannot be located:

  shipped runtime   23 crates   246,250 lines   target <=250,000  met
  dev toolchain     29 crates   317,021 lines   target <=350,000  met
  own source                      3,408 lines

Scenario tooling costs 70,771 lines a shipped game never compiles —
the split the single number was hiding.

Targets are set at current measurement plus headroom, so they bind on
future growth rather than retroactively passing what had failed.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-31 03:35:41 +02:00
8e11fc412e Amend CB-EV-0001; add CB-WP-0002 for cost accounting
Some checks failed
ci / check (push) Failing after 4s
AM-4: measured what each remediation option actually buys, rather than
leaving one recommendation unquantified. serde_yaml optional removes 6
crates, not 5 — ryu belongs to that group, since serde_json now uses
zmij for floats. Full ladder: -6 to 27, serde_json -4 more to 23,
inlining SHA-256 -8 to 19, inlining ChaCha12 -4 to 15. Only
reimplementing a primitive gets under 20, so the target is unreachable
without undoing K5/K7.

Also records that crate count compares badly across ecosystems, and
offers the alternative the count is a proxy for: 307,317 lines of
third-party source under audit against 3,398 of our own.

AM-12: corrected from "uncomputable" to measured. The refusal to
estimate was right; the claim that no instrument existed was wrong.
Session transcripts carry exact per-message usage including the cache
breakdown. This session cost $248.46 at Fable 5 rates, of which 53% is
cache reads — cost is driven by context size times turn count, not by
output volume. What is still missing is per-task attribution, since
nothing marks task boundaries in a transcript.

CB-WP-0002 makes cost measurable and attributable: survey the
instruments, decide the attribution model by ADR, spec metrics that
include cost composition rather than a bare total, build a collector
whose positive control refuses to emit unreconciled numbers, and prove
it by answering a question that could not be answered before.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-31 03:26:03 +02:00
eb1378e667 T08 complete: benchmarks, determinism evidence, and one missed metric
evidence/CB-EV-0001-game-kernel.md records the acceptance run against
the CB-RES-0001 baseline.

Met: AM-1 rule coverage 58/58; AM-6 throughput 1.65M events/s against a
100k target; AM-7 scaling 1.08x at 20x workload and a 100k-event replay
in 4.13ms against a 5s budget; AM-8 zero divergence over 10 full runs
with fmt and clippy clean; AM-10 zero foreign collection types.

Not met and reported as such: AM-4 at 33 transitive crates against a
<=20 target. Attribution is in the evidence file. The recommended fix
is making serde_yaml optional (-5, a test-only concern), after which
the remainder is sha2 and rand_chacha, which K5 and K7 require. We are
not hand-rolling crypto primitives to win a dependency count.

AM-12 is recorded as uncomputable: per-task token counts were never
instrumented, and inventing a USD figure would defeat the metric.

A measurement error was found and corrected before publication. The
first benchmark reported 9.3M events/s on a flat curve. The workload
had a player selecting SUPPORT while parked at Stress 4, so GR-R03
rejected it, rounds never completed, and throughput was computed for
rounds that never happened. The bench now asserts the per-round event
count and panics rather than measuring a stalled loop. The corrected
figure is 5.6x lower.

The evidence file states plainly what the boardgame.io comparison does
and does not support: the ~450x command-rate ratio is cross-runtime and
cross-feature-set, so it is a direction, not a verdict, per the
InnerLoop parity-cap rule.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-07-31 03:09:14 +02:00