clay-borg/decisions
tegwick 05d1a9aada
Some checks failed
ci / check (push) Failing after 4s
ADR-0021: the chaos roll is retired, and the condition that retired it was wrong
The condition is met and the tally was verified rather than recalled.
ADR-0017 D2 named window 3 as the decider; windows 2 and 3 each produced
exactly one override and each changed nothing. Every roll in window 3 was
cross-checked against the workplan that made it, because the last time
this project tallied chaos rolls from memory it was wrong and asserted the
wrong figure four times (F23). All twelve agree.

But meeting the condition is not evidence. P(an override changes nothing)
is 1/3, and each window had exactly one override, so the condition fires
on a 1/9 coincidence. ADR-0017 restated it to be REACHABLE and made it
weak in the process; reachability was checked and discriminating power was
not.

Worse, it measures the wrong subject. It asks whether an override changed
the tier; the question is whether changing the tier helped. Under it, a
die that always changed the tier could never be retired however useless
its changes were.

The real ground is stronger. Four overrides across roughly forty
declarations, and the mechanism's value has never once been demonstrated.
The one substantive intervention dropped CB-WP-0011 from a structural L to
S, and that work then needed CB-WP-0016 and CB-WP-0017 to fix defects a
human found by playing. Not offered as causation — a tier is process
weight, not a guarantee — but it is the only evidence we have about an
override's consequences and it points the wrong way.

And the purpose has no live evidence of need: 17 M, 11 S, 4 L across every
workplan, with the only two structural/declared mismatches being the
window-1 overrides themselves. Tier declaration has not ossified.

So: retired, with nothing replacing it. Adding a successor to guard
against ossification that has not occurred would invent a gate for an
instance we do not have. The revival trigger is stated: tiers collapsing
toward one value, or a pass declaring below its structural tier to dodge a
review.

InnerLoop loses the chaos paragraph, loop-lint loses the chaos-recorded
check — a check that outlives its rule becomes an obstruction — and its
self-test now asserts the opposite: a note with no roll must pass.
ChaosRollHistory is closed. Window 4 ends incomplete at four declarations,
the last of which is this one, rolled because the rule was still in force.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-08 15:51:52 +02:00
..
ADR-0002-game-kernel.md T04: adversarial review round + survey corrections + ADR-0002 (reimplement, assimilate patterns) 2026-07-31 01:25:02 +02:00
ADR-0003-cost-accounting.md T02: ADR-0003 — transcript as instrument, commit intervals as attribution 2026-07-31 08:44:27 +02:00
ADR-0004-am4-ratification.md CB-WP-0019 T01/T02: AM-4b asks what a contributor acquires 2026-08-03 19:04:54 +02:00
ADR-0005-assertion-coverage-and-replay.md ADR-0005 + CB-WP-0005: count assertions, not names 2026-07-31 14:25:26 +02:00
ADR-0006-adaptive-control-gates.md ADR-0006 + CB-WP-0009: control gates are experiments 2026-08-01 15:34:27 +02:00
ADR-0007-render-html-not-a-port.md CB-WP-0012-T03: ADR-0007 — render to HTML, and do not declare the port yet 2026-08-02 04:13:35 +02:00
ADR-0008-instrument-corrections.md CB-WP-0013-T02/T03: retire SH-3 as a gate; correct AM-4a and its target 2026-08-02 07:30:14 +02:00
ADR-0009-embed-the-js-engine.md CB-WP-0014-T01/T02: execute the JavaScript — and find AM-4b blind 2026-08-02 07:56:02 +02:00
ADR-0010-what-the-script-may-do.md CB-WP-0017: legible interaction, and the chaos window's verdict 2026-08-02 22:42:45 +02:00
ADR-0011-vendor-the-edition.md CB-WP-0021 T01/T02/T05: the engine plays its own data — AM-7 blocks 2026-08-04 00:47:56 +02:00
ADR-0012-the-design-instrument.md CB-WP-0022 T03: ADR-0012 -- the register already existed, and the rule was 2026-08-05 15:05:51 +02:00
ADR-0013-could-we-have-won.md CB-WP-0025 T03: ADR-0013 -- one world after the game, and difficulty that 2026-08-05 18:47:07 +02:00
ADR-0014-the-commentary-track.md CB-WP-0027 T01-T04: the commentary track 2026-08-06 10:37:46 +02:00
ADR-0015-the-cards-own-words.md CB-WP-0028 T01/T02: the cards say what they do 2026-08-06 17:22:04 +02:00
ADR-0016-the-tokens-on-the-table.md CB-WP-0029 T01-T03: components you can count, and a supply that does not bind 2026-08-07 09:54:20 +02:00
ADR-0017-chaos-window-2-verdict.md ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did 2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00
ADR-0018-a-number-that-does-not-move.md CB-WP-0030: a control for the wrong-subject family 2026-08-07 11:35:41 +02:00
ADR-0019-a-game-is-the-unit.md CB-WP-0033: a game is the unit 2026-08-07 17:41:11 +02:00
ADR-0020-we-do-not-build-the-port.md CB-WP-0041 done: ADR-0020 refuses the port, and T02 is why 2026-08-08 15:35:03 +02:00
ADR-0021-the-chaos-roll-is-retired.md ADR-0021: the chaos roll is retired, and the condition that retired it was wrong 2026-08-08 15:51:52 +02:00