clay-borg/evidence
tegwick a9978c7a91
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ci / check (push) Failing after 4s
ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did
not

Tier M (changes how the loop constrains its own operation), declared at
d8 because the rate for window 3 is what this document decides and
declaring at a rate it invents would be circular. chaos d8 = 7, no
override.

I CLAIMED WINDOW 2 PRODUCED ZERO OVERRIDES, FIVE TIMES, AND IT IS FALSE.
Declaration 3 (CB-WP-0020) rolled d8 = 8, overrode, drew S against a
structural S, and changed nothing -- and CB-WP-0020 recorded it correctly
at the time, in those words: "the first override at d8... It changed
nothing... One."

Counting the workplans takes one command and I never ran it. CB-EV-0024
asserted "zero" without checking; CB-EV-0025, 0026, 0027 and CB-WP-0029
each cited the one before. A claim propagated five times by citation
rather than by measurement, in files whose subject was that exact failure.
facts-check catches a copied number that disagrees with its source;
nothing catches a number with NO source, asserted once and repeated.
Registered F23, and all four evidence files carry an in-place correction
rather than a silent edit (ADR-0012 D5).

THE ACTUAL VERDICT: THE RATE IS WORKING. Eleven rolls at d8 -- declaration
1 opened the window at the old d4 -- against 1.375 eights expected, 1
observed. Not a shortage of evidence; the design.

BUT THE RETIREMENT CONDITION GENUINELY CANNOT FIRE, and that took
computing to see. "An override changes nothing twice running" needs a
consecutive pair at P=1/3 each, so ~12 overrides expected, at ~1.4 per
window: ~9 windows, roughly 100 declarations. A gate that cannot cash out
on any realistic horizon is decoration, which ADR-0006 D3 forbids.

Restated to be evaluated PER WINDOW: retire if a full window's overrides
all change nothing, met in two consecutive windows. A window with no
overrides is inconclusive and advances nothing. ~24 declarations rather
than ~100. Window 2 counts as the first; window 3 opens at d8 and decides.

Recorded and deliberately not acted on: declarations 5-9 rolled six five
times running, ~1 in 370 for some run of five in eleven rolls. shuf tested
over 200 rapid successive calls looks uniform, longest run three. Found
post hoc, which is how coincidences become findings, so it is logged for a
future window to check rather than treated as evidence.

InnerLoop.md then crossed the loadability limit, and so did
InnerLoopReference.md. The window log moved to specs/ChaosRollHistory.md:
it grows by one entry per window, and a log inside a reference eventually
crowds out the reference.

make all: exit 0.

Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00
..
CB-EV-0001-game-kernel.md CB-WP-0019 T01/T02: AM-4b asks what a contributor acquires 2026-08-03 19:04:54 +02:00
CB-EV-0002-cost-accounting.md CB-WP-0004 T04: fact registry and make facts-check — DFD gets a gate 2026-07-31 10:24:39 +02:00
CB-EV-0003-mechanical-work.md CB-WP-0004 T05: control loop — 6 points recovered, not 25-30 2026-07-31 10:27:09 +02:00
CB-EV-0004-assertion-coverage.md CB-WP-0005 T07/T08: control loop, retrospective, InnerLoop v1.4 2026-07-31 18:05:31 +02:00
CB-EV-0005-instrument-the-table.md CB-WP-0006 T08: control loop — 4 of 14 to 8 of 14, and a cost regression 2026-08-01 13:39:12 +02:00
CB-EV-0007-stage-0.md CB-WP-0008-T04: CB-EV-0007 — stage 0 is shipped, and the spend curve is a V 2026-08-01 15:25:19 +02:00
CB-EV-0008-adaptive-gates.md CB-WP-0009-T04: CB-EV-0008 — the gate changes, measured 2026-08-01 15:45:08 +02:00
CB-EV-0009-inspectable-table.md CB-WP-0011-T03: evidence — the chaos roll fired, and it was right 2026-08-02 02:48:51 +02:00
CB-EV-0010-render-port.md CB-WP-0012-T05: evidence — tier L deleted its own deliverable 2026-08-02 04:30:10 +02:00
CB-EV-0011-instrument-corrections.md CB-WP-0013-T04: evidence — and a rule about quoting your own cost 2026-08-02 07:32:07 +02:00
CB-EV-0012-execute-the-javascript.md CB-WP-0014-T03: hot-seat evidenced; stage 1 open on one human check 2026-08-02 07:58:59 +02:00
CB-EV-0013-the-inert-clauses.md CB-EV-0013: correct the cost table, and the self-quoting rule with it 2026-08-02 14:09:52 +02:00
CB-EV-0014-the-drop-target.md CB-WP-0017: legible interaction, and the chaos window's verdict 2026-08-02 22:42:45 +02:00
CB-EV-0015-legible-interaction.md CB-WP-0017: legible interaction, and the chaos window's verdict 2026-08-02 22:42:45 +02:00
CB-EV-0016-the-browser-is-a-client.md CB-WP-0018 T03/T04: explanations, and window 1's verdict 2026-08-03 02:24:13 +02:00
CB-EV-0017-budgets.md CB-WP-0019 T03/T04: the cost rule written down, and the lifecycle 2026-08-03 19:25:18 +02:00
CB-EV-0018-the-table-you-can-read.md CB-WP-0021: correct the declaration before writing any code 2026-08-03 20:35:39 +02:00
CB-EV-0019-import-the-edition.md CB-WP-0021 T04: evidence -- the endings are tight, and the cost chain snapped 2026-08-05 15:56:31 +02:00
CB-EV-0020-solve-legality.md CB-EV-0020: a gate moved the rule, and the report was wrong 2026-08-04 00:21:21 +02:00
CB-EV-0021-the-design-instrument.md CB-WP-0022 T05/T06/T07: the register, and what its first run found 2026-08-05 15:22:33 +02:00
CB-EV-0022-collect-the-rulings.md CB-WP-0026: collect the rulings -- ten answers that arrived and were never applied 2026-08-05 16:13:37 +02:00
CB-EV-0023-the-table-you-can-watch.md CB-WP-0024: the table you can watch 2026-08-05 17:32:48 +02:00
CB-EV-0024-could-we-have-won.md ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did 2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00
CB-EV-0025-the-commentary-track.md ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did 2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00
CB-EV-0026-the-table-you-sit-at.md ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did 2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00
CB-EV-0027-the-tokens-on-the-table.md ADR-0017: window 2's verdict — the mechanism worked, my account of it did 2026-08-07 10:55:54 +02:00