coulomb-social/docs/release/goal-progress-audit-2026-10-31.md

Progress assessment for CSOC-WP-0012–0015

Assessment date: 2026-10-31. This is an effort estimate against the full four-workplan objective, not a task-count percentage or a new acceptance decision.

Working estimate: roughly 60% complete, with about 40% still ahead. A reasonable remaining-work range is 35–50%. Productive review may expose further work; elapsed hours, test counts and the number of prepared release packets do not predict that rework. This is not a calendar completion promise.

Basis and uncertainty

Workplan	Planning weight	Estimated work remaining	What drives the remainder
WP-0012 recovery/service	35%	35–45%	Recurring route and inactive installation, native failure/retry/watchdog proof, schedule observation, retention/capacity, complete service registration/cost/offboarding evidence
WP-0013 sharing/content	20%	25–40%	Actual corpus/assets fidelity and revision lifecycle acceptance, four productive sharing/portability journeys and any resulting fixes
WP-0014 migration/off-ramp	30%	50–65%	Source exceptions and identity/grant/assets mapping, remaining productive cohort transfers and date verification, retained use-case verdicts, separate cutover/retirement decision
WP-0015 communication	15%	25–40%	General sender/reply/inbox/DNS/bounce ownership, native reset-authority return, productive registration/invitation acceptance

Weights are an explicit engineering judgment about relative scope, not measured historical effort. Weighted bounds are approximately 36–50%; the public estimate is deliberately rounded. Do not count final acceptance gates and their detailed execution tasks twice. Substantial implementation is complete, but pending native operations and productive acceptance are real work. The range assumes existing implementations largely survive review and that the remaining source exceptions can be resolved without a new platform feature set. More reconstruction or major rejected workflows would raise it. Waiting for an owner or observation window can extend calendar time without proportionate engineering effort.

Verified progress that the old task counts concealed

• Independent encrypted paired recovery, provider-only protected-kit recovery and immutable readback have been exercised. Latest corrected-date recovery compares 13 tables, 114 rows and 86 files, with owner/outsider view checks. See provider-kit-recovery-post-date-2026-10-31.json and the identity release return.
• Storage enforcement was deployed and verified at revision 18. The later identity/ export image release is verified at revision 19 with unchanged business data, content and migration history. See storage-release-review-2026-10-31.md and identity-export-release-return-2026-10-31.md.
• The accepted-cohort date correction is complete, with all 36 imported source dates verified and three local pages preserved. See accepted-cohort-date-manifest-proof-2026-10-31.json.
• State Hub backup notification readback and the SMTP proof are verified; the user confirmed actual Gmail inbox receipt. Recurring delivery source and isolated native checks are complete. This does not establish automatic monitoring.
• All 71 known spaces are retained in inventory, with 67 draft trees and explicit unresolved exceptions. Native identity/browser and owner-source communication rehearsals pass. Neither preparation nor automated success supplies a productive transfer verdict.

The latest source gate is make check: 475 passed, zero failures/errors/skips, including required browser journeys. Fifteen cases cover the source installer library. No source code changed during this tracking audit; its source hashes and result envelope are in backup-source-installer-validation-2026-10-31.json.

Tracking correction and scope conservation

Before this audit, 4 of 14 very broad tasks were marked done. Hundreds of lines of implementation and deployment receipts accumulated inside the others. State Hub received description updates, but its unchanged completion counts hid meaningful progress. That was a planning/tracking weakness, not evidence that no work happened.

The audit retains every original task ID and evidence trail, adds 16 concrete execution/milestone tasks, and splits three broad tasks at verified boundaries:

Original task	Now complete	Remaining original scope remains live in
WP-0012-T01	Independent custody and protected retrieval	WP-0012-T04 retention, capacity and historical-copy disposition; ongoing service remains T03/T07–T12
WP-0014-T04	Accepted live cohort date correction and postflight	WP-0014-T06 remaining trees/dates/productive verification; T07 transfer
WP-0015-T04	Browser implementation/native rehearsal and verified app release	WP-0015-T05 productive flow verdicts; T06 native reset-authority return

No workplan is finished. New source/rehearsal milestone tasks say explicitly what is and is not proved. WP-0012-T03 remains a final service acceptance gate, not a second estimate for its detailed implementation tasks. WP-0013-T02 similarly consumes T04 preparation and T05 lifecycle acceptance. New task totals are 11 of 30 done, useful as a checklist but still unsuitable as effort arithmetic.

Central REST readback at 10:18:38Z verifies all 30 task titles, statuses and human-action flags against the source files, and all four workplans remain active. Receipt: goal-progress-statehub-2026-10-31.json. statehub fix-consistency synchronized the task records and regenerated the work-record index; the three renamed titles were explicitly reconciled from the files because that command does not synchronize existing task titles.

Next task state changes must occur at the named milestone: execution receipt, independent postflight, native recurring run, or explicit productive verdict. Any failed review becomes a concrete live task. Progress updates should name which task advanced and its next closure condition, rather than only append a long session narrative.

Immediate sequence

1. WP-0012-T07: receive and verify the existing attended telemetry route execution. Its receipt was absent at the latest native observation (10:04:37Z). The reviewed packet and digest4d848106 are unchanged; this audit performs no privileged action.
2. WP-0012-T08/T04: finish the supervised inactive installer and resolve operating retention/capacity requirements. Source primitives are complete; installation and timer activation have not occurred.
3. WP-0012-T09/T10: prove native capture and failure reception, then activate and observe the already approved schedule after its prerequisites are met.
4. Resume WP-0013 fidelity/journey review and WP-0014 source-exception/cohort work; prepare WP-0015 productive flow and general sender ownership returns. These lanes are not completed by backup work and must remain visible.

There is no need to rerun completed storage, date, image or one-off email commands, or to approve the already settled alert destinations and schedule again.

Topic visibility correction — October 31 follow-through

A later orientation check found that all four workplans had the correct Coulomb repository ID but the Markitect topic ID, despite their authoritative topic_slug: coulomb-social. The topic-filtered query in AGENTS therefore omitted these plans. The earlier task/status readback did not test topic associations.

Corrected only the four existing workplan topic links to the declared Coulomb topic, preserving IDs, repository bindings, statuses, task references and backing files. The original AGENTS topic query now returns all four active goal workplans. Proof: goal-topic-reconciliation-2026-10-31.json. This is an additional tracking defect, separate from the oversized tasks corrected above. It does not change the effort estimate or imply that unfinished work has completed.

The shared State Hub C-06 creation path currently chooses the first topic matching a domain instead of the declared topic slug. That code is not changed by this projection correction; future newly registered plans need an explicit topic readback until the owner fixes that selection.