tegwick
851c6a74ca
Week 43 keeps the Kimi K3.1 Pro catalog row and the Claude Duet navigation label. Week 44 keeps GPT-6.1 Terra, the 29 October Mistral Large 4 fields, and the 30 October Max and Ultra plan text. Assistant: grok Assistant-Session: 01a1925d-3496-7011-a33e-6bfb99f4f4d3
251 lines
14 KiB
Markdown
251 lines
14 KiB
Markdown
# Radar weekly draft — 2026-W44
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Status: draft; editorial review required. Claims retain their reported status.
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Selection: event date; observation timestamps below preserve when evidence was received.
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## Source update: anthropic-sonnet
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/sonnet
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- Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:03.875104+00:00
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- Observation: 0eeff7b8f6b1f0b29e2e1f6b1481b1d3961bfbf5225286d21b10600ee265c3a1
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## Source update: anthropic-sonnet-launch
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-sonnet-5
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- Observed: 2026-10-27T20:41:41.195762+00:00
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- Observation: 170359f856984bac46673176e97a6e04fb8cfd08420930a657b7b912368b6d60
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## Source update: anthropic-sonnet
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/sonnet
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- Observed: 2026-10-28T20:40:38.495011+00:00
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- Observation: 25067c4e0217b40a3f91092d214e1d6d4c7f6b45b544316ed036310951b5c74e
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## Source update: anthropic-sonnet-launch
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-sonnet-5
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- Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:04.210546+00:00
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- Observation: 343dc52c11a239d7d17f536a2a7f190c8b588f43da274e1fe84674c6a82a368f
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## Source update: anthropic-sonnet-launch
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-sonnet-5
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- Observed: 2026-10-29T20:56:10.532561+00:00
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- Observation: 3d6c0990b6b952e3f5e69cde2d969ded0107223f4726aef6b0ef6532685f2384
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## Source update: anthropic-pricing
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://claude.com/pricing
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- Observed: 2026-10-27T20:41:40.272280+00:00
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- Observation: 3fcc25d9192f672e41d6a8cbabc1442ce50d114f8515d69de480dc0c20063cdc
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## Source update: openrouter-models
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
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- Observed: 2026-10-27T20:41:41.470431+00:00
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- Observation: 45585ed2687689f67a28ddff2c6eb82eec04286038ec6fb70f0dfaabe01847cc
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## Source update: anthropic-pricing
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://claude.com/pricing
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- Observed: 2026-10-28T20:40:37.694894+00:00
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- Observation: 4913754f73d7d4e5dc7b77d0510467b550a1eae3d6bb7d094269c0345ab14fdc
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## Source update: anthropic-pricing
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://claude.com/pricing
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- Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:03.163405+00:00
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- Observation: 5573723a4da66ceb0c210ed7103a5df4e2c7659e02f65b8a73c66acde24a1d4b
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## Source update: anthropic-sonnet
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/sonnet
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- Observed: 2026-10-29T20:56:10.216928+00:00
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- Observation: 5b9ef00f80b27e04806bf46fb532d8ce5cedc5e2400efefbc61242ae8bd10706
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## OpenRouter lists Ternary Bonsai 2 9B
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The 27 October 20:41 UTC OpenRouter capture adds PrismML Ternary Bonsai 2 9B (prism-ml/ternary-bonsai-2-9b, context 262144, prompt 0.00000008, completion 0.00000013 per token).
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
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- Observed: 2026-10-27T20:41:41.470431+00:00
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- Observation: 76577fc1d15cc98ec285f46b9d987ee0867c15e9b683b9d1c982fcefdc33d74e
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## Source update: openrouter-models
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
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- Observed: 2026-10-29T20:56:10.828686+00:00
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- Observation: 834b55bd542e4b070fe437092f6111ea6176ed0e2207977202fcca028c59c232
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## Source update: openrouter-models
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
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- Observed: 2026-10-27T17:34:39.800774+00:00
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- Observation: 8e5ed0e50180cbbb4282a5252117c1d874cb386e2b8c666f172d8c7c21af476c
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## OpenRouter lists Particle-1 and drops older OpenAI ids
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The 28 October OpenRouter capture adds Particle AI Particle-1 (particle-ai/particle-1, context 1048576, prompt 0.00000025, completion 0.000001 per token) and drops openai/gpt-4-turbo, openai/o1, openai/o1-pro, openai/o3-mini, openai/o3-mini-high, openai/o4-mini, openai/o4-mini-high, and qwen/qwen3-next-80b-a3b-thinking. On 30 October Particle-1 is still listed, at prompt 0.00000005 and completion 0.0000005. The dropped ids remain absent.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
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- Observed: 2026-10-28T20:40:39.078183+00:00
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- Observation: 96eb57948f37010512cd5fb3a0faed2ebab3b58c00f8585c2eb03be00e35b835
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## Source update: anthropic-pricing
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://claude.com/pricing
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- Observed: 2026-10-27T17:34:37.386589+00:00
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- Observation: 9fd50d73f810c00478aad2b1f9cbae6a92d045e301e4fc1e153acd3050dd4e62
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## Source update: anthropic-sonnet
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/sonnet
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- Observed: 2026-10-27T20:41:40.884394+00:00
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- Observation: a78c4e8bf17bd17dbc211238d9d39918f49c19d4b5c97be494c8757e2c90ef11
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## OpenRouter drops Solar Pro 3
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The 29 October OpenRouter models document no longer lists upstage/solar-pro-3. That id is also absent from the 30 October capture.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
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- Observed: 2026-10-29T20:56:10.828686+00:00
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- Observation: b5d13a9bdea81682f00a4634786f7c2081a35fe72c29466f6c6d27a1d0a1b8c6
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## Source update: openrouter-models
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
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- Observed: 2026-10-28T20:40:39.078183+00:00
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- Observation: ccc7c170f7c5757b3b8d16461651b966692c989321588ef1f5b3deb353297731
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## Source update: anthropic-sonnet
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/sonnet
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- Observed: 2026-10-27T17:34:38.350293+00:00
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- Observation: d5a74b2cd9098edec50d789147835fce035ee66a4b3207d24d4e35ae6785085b
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## OpenRouter lists GPT-6.1 Terra and drops several batch ids
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The 27 October 17:34 UTC OpenRouter capture adds OpenAI GPT-6.1 Terra and GPT-6.1 Terra Pro, plus both :batch ids. Terra and Terra Pro are listed at context 1050000, prompt 0.000001, completion 0.000005 per token. The batch ids use prompt 0.0000005 and completion 0.0000025. The same capture drops arcee-ai/trinity-large-thinking, ibm-granite/granite-4.0-h-micro, nvidia/nemotron-3-super-120b-a12b:free, and the :batch ids codestral-2508, ministral-8b-2512, mistral-large-2512, mistral-medium-3.1, and mistral-small-2603. The Terra prompt and completion fields are unchanged on the 30 October capture.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
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- Observed: 2026-10-27T17:34:39.800774+00:00
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- Observation: dba698ff3377e1cc975350882a30ebccae7d8654f6895dabbad08391d61b522e
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## Source update: openrouter-models
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
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- Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:04.487280+00:00
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- Observation: e9c7d6d19f72b85358f6df6d9057099988facad4c35d637412a9432ba6eb64fb
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## Source update: anthropic-sonnet-launch
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-sonnet-5
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- Observed: 2026-10-28T20:40:38.796996+00:00
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- Observation: ec33aea9e03c481b1530493d7928861505532c65656e5dfe5ee63bbc0b81f722
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## Source update: anthropic-sonnet-launch
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://www.anthropic.com/news/claude-sonnet-5
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- Observed: 2026-10-27T17:34:39.092187+00:00
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- Observation: f3364d5c8bb91c47ddd10418d4b2900935463ca41e40f04669fd8b04229b0b13
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## OpenRouter per-token fields moved since 20 October
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Endpoint comparison of the OpenRouter models document from 20 October (artifact cb0d1f741ce1dc8560d0ea8df0ff3208c7230057b78bc056333fd70f992c1ceb) to 30 October. Prompt and completion are USD per token as stored. Only ids still present on both days, and only fields whose ratio is at least 2, are listed. Several of these fields moved by a large factor and reversed on intermediate days, so the path is not one price change. deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro prompt 0.000000371664 to 0.0000016 and completion 0.000000743328 to 0.0000032. deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash completion 0.00000012 to 0.0000005. nvidia/nemotron-3-super-120b-a12b prompt 0.00000008 to 0.0000003, completion 0.00000045 to 0.0000024, context 262144 to 1048576. qwen/qwen3.8-27b prompt 0.00000004 to 0.00000015. xiaomi/mimo-v2.5 prompt 0.00000014 to 0.0000004 and completion 0.00000028 to 0.000002. z-ai/glm-5.2 prompt 0.00000062 to 0.000000006 and completion 0.00000242 to 0.000007. z-ai/glm-5.3 completion 0.0000014 to 0.0000036. ~deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-latest prompt 0.0000000065 to 0.0000000388. ~openai/gpt-terra-latest prompt 0.000002 to 0.000001 and completion 0.000012 to 0.000005. Smaller moves, including google/gemma-3-4b-it completion and xiaomi/mimo-v2.5-pro completion, are left in the artifacts. This snapshot does not update the September frontier ledger.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
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- Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:04.487280+00:00
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- Observation: f89f102c67d1ad25ccc8e54e9f7bfd0674fefb37d6d5d602b034f170e1318b82
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## Source update: anthropic-pricing
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Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://claude.com/pricing
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- Observed: 2026-10-29T20:56:09.655031+00:00
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- Observation: f96121b5580d195d4dd099b86ec2263d53401e3cabcb494ec3fb8155dd013eea
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## Anthropic pricing page introduces Ultra
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The 30 October capture of Anthropic's pricing page presents Max at $100 a month and a new Ultra plan at $200 a month. The 20 October capture, and each capture from 21 October through 29 October, still presented Max 5x and Max 20x and did not contain the word Ultra. On 30 October, Ultra is described as having no 5-hour limit for verified accounts, 10× Pro usage every week, and $200 a month in platform credits, against $100 on Max. Pro copy names Fable paid with usage credits, and Max copy says Fable is included up to half the weekly limit. This is a reading of visible page text, not an independent price list, and it does not show a changed Sonnet, Opus, or Haiku token price.
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- Status: reported; source kind: primary
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- Source: https://claude.com/pricing
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- Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:03.163405+00:00
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- Observation: fa7e93faf943cb94b02983b43b6aa2d7d81b5a7c10ed05576f4efe6e4cec243e
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## Reviewed reading
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Week 44 runs Monday 26 October through Sunday 1 November. No Grok weekly file for this week is retained. This pass reads the daily briefs for 26–30 October. There is no 26 October capture and no 31 October capture. The pass against ledger captures is publication `43113feeff26834ad3d7585469141fe2c13a4652b7c650500d4e4e23afba1630`.
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Included from captures: the 25 October OpenRouter capture does not list `openai/gpt-6.1-terra`. The 27 October capture lists `openai/gpt-6.1-terra` and `openai/gpt-6.1-terra-pro` at context 1050000, prompt `0.000001`, completion `0.000005`, and input-cache read `0.00000005` per token. The batch ids are half those prompt and completion fields. On that capture, `openai/gpt-5.6-terra` is prompt `0.000002` and completion `0.000012`, and `openai/gpt-6.1-sol` is prompt `0.000002` and completion `0.00001`. The 30 October capture still lists the GPT-6.1 Terra fields. `mistralai/mistral-large-4-0` is prompt `0.00000136` and completion `0.00000418` on 28 October, and prompt `0.0000007` and completion `0.0000021` on 29 and 30 October. The 29 October pricing capture lists Max 5x and Max 20x and does not contain Ultra. The 30 October pricing capture lists Max at $100 a month and Ultra at $200 a month, with no 5-hour limit for verified accounts, 10x Pro usage every week, and $200 a month in platform API credits. Opus 5.5, Sonnet 5.5, and Haiku 5.5 token rows on that page are the rates already recorded for 25 October. The Sonnet page footer mission sentence changed. That sentence is outside the briefs.
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Left out: Terra's benchmark scores, speed claims, and the blanket 50% cut against the prior Terra completion field; Carbon's announcement, index score, cyber-benchmark percentages, and later price; Mistral's weights, parameter count, license, and benchmark scores; Rosalind, Genie, the S-1, the financing items, and the Duet product description. Frontier, Efficient, and Budget are not assigned. Price readings are in `frontier/readings-2026-W44.md`.
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## Editorial follow-up
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Source-update sections above remain unextracted change notices. This pass does not make the external briefs a belief. `frontier/ledger-2026-09.md` stays the September import.
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