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intelligence-radar/digests/weekly/2026-W44.md
tegwick 37b19d7544 Retain scheduled captures from 2026-10-21 through 2026-10-30 and the reviewed readings. 
The daily drafts and weeks 43 and 44 now record the Ultra plan wording and the OpenRouter catalog changes. The September frontier ledger is unchanged.

Assistant: grok
Assistant-Session: 01a1925d-3496-7011-a33e-6bfb99f4f4d3
2026-10-31 16:25:22 +01:00

13 KiB
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Radar weekly draft — 2026-W44

Status: draft; editorial review required. Claims retain their reported status.

Selection: event date; observation timestamps below preserve when evidence was received.

Source update: anthropic-sonnet

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/sonnet
  • Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:03.875104+00:00
  • Observation: 0eeff7b8f6b1f0b29e2e1f6b1481b1d3961bfbf5225286d21b10600ee265c3a1

Source update: anthropic-sonnet-launch

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

Source update: anthropic-sonnet

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/sonnet
  • Observed: 2026-10-28T20:40:38.495011+00:00
  • Observation: 25067c4e0217b40a3f91092d214e1d6d4c7f6b45b544316ed036310951b5c74e

Source update: anthropic-sonnet-launch

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

Source update: anthropic-sonnet-launch

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

Source update: anthropic-pricing

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://claude.com/pricing
  • Observed: 2026-10-27T20:41:40.272280+00:00
  • Observation: 3fcc25d9192f672e41d6a8cbabc1442ce50d114f8515d69de480dc0c20063cdc

Source update: openrouter-models

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
  • Observed: 2026-10-27T20:41:41.470431+00:00
  • Observation: 45585ed2687689f67a28ddff2c6eb82eec04286038ec6fb70f0dfaabe01847cc

Source update: anthropic-pricing

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://claude.com/pricing
  • Observed: 2026-10-28T20:40:37.694894+00:00
  • Observation: 4913754f73d7d4e5dc7b77d0510467b550a1eae3d6bb7d094269c0345ab14fdc

Source update: anthropic-pricing

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://claude.com/pricing
  • Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:03.163405+00:00
  • Observation: 5573723a4da66ceb0c210ed7103a5df4e2c7659e02f65b8a73c66acde24a1d4b

Source update: anthropic-sonnet

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/sonnet
  • Observed: 2026-10-29T20:56:10.216928+00:00
  • Observation: 5b9ef00f80b27e04806bf46fb532d8ce5cedc5e2400efefbc61242ae8bd10706

OpenRouter lists Ternary Bonsai 2 9B

The 27 October 20:41 UTC OpenRouter capture adds PrismML Ternary Bonsai 2 9B (prism-ml/ternary-bonsai-2-9b, context 262144, prompt 0.00000008, completion 0.00000013 per token).

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
  • Observed: 2026-10-27T20:41:41.470431+00:00
  • Observation: 76577fc1d15cc98ec285f46b9d987ee0867c15e9b683b9d1c982fcefdc33d74e

Source update: openrouter-models

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
  • Observed: 2026-10-29T20:56:10.828686+00:00
  • Observation: 834b55bd542e4b070fe437092f6111ea6176ed0e2207977202fcca028c59c232

Source update: openrouter-models

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
  • Observed: 2026-10-27T17:34:39.800774+00:00
  • Observation: 8e5ed0e50180cbbb4282a5252117c1d874cb386e2b8c666f172d8c7c21af476c

OpenRouter lists Particle-1 and drops older OpenAI ids

The 28 October OpenRouter capture adds Particle AI Particle-1 (particle-ai/particle-1, context 1048576, prompt 0.00000025, completion 0.000001 per token) and drops openai/gpt-4-turbo, openai/o1, openai/o1-pro, openai/o3-mini, openai/o3-mini-high, openai/o4-mini, openai/o4-mini-high, and qwen/qwen3-next-80b-a3b-thinking. On 30 October Particle-1 is still listed, at prompt 0.00000005 and completion 0.0000005. The dropped ids remain absent.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
  • Observed: 2026-10-28T20:40:39.078183+00:00
  • Observation: 96eb57948f37010512cd5fb3a0faed2ebab3b58c00f8585c2eb03be00e35b835

Source update: anthropic-pricing

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://claude.com/pricing
  • Observed: 2026-10-27T17:34:37.386589+00:00
  • Observation: 9fd50d73f810c00478aad2b1f9cbae6a92d045e301e4fc1e153acd3050dd4e62

Source update: anthropic-sonnet

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/sonnet
  • Observed: 2026-10-27T20:41:40.884394+00:00
  • Observation: a78c4e8bf17bd17dbc211238d9d39918f49c19d4b5c97be494c8757e2c90ef11

OpenRouter drops Solar Pro 3

The 29 October OpenRouter models document no longer lists upstage/solar-pro-3. That id is also absent from the 30 October capture.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
  • Observed: 2026-10-29T20:56:10.828686+00:00
  • Observation: b5d13a9bdea81682f00a4634786f7c2081a35fe72c29466f6c6d27a1d0a1b8c6

Source update: openrouter-models

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
  • Observed: 2026-10-28T20:40:39.078183+00:00
  • Observation: ccc7c170f7c5757b3b8d16461651b966692c989321588ef1f5b3deb353297731

Source update: anthropic-sonnet

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://www.anthropic.com/claude/sonnet
  • Observed: 2026-10-27T17:34:38.350293+00:00
  • Observation: d5a74b2cd9098edec50d789147835fce035ee66a4b3207d24d4e35ae6785085b

OpenRouter lists GPT-6.1 Terra and drops several batch ids

The 27 October 17:34 UTC OpenRouter capture adds OpenAI GPT-6.1 Terra and GPT-6.1 Terra Pro, plus both :batch ids. Terra and Terra Pro are listed at context 1050000, prompt 0.000001, completion 0.000005 per token. The batch ids use prompt 0.0000005 and completion 0.0000025. The same capture drops arcee-ai/trinity-large-thinking, ibm-granite/granite-4.0-h-micro, nvidia/nemotron-3-super-120b-a12b:free, and the :batch ids codestral-2508, ministral-8b-2512, mistral-large-2512, mistral-medium-3.1, and mistral-small-2603. The Terra prompt and completion fields are unchanged on the 30 October capture.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
  • Observed: 2026-10-27T17:34:39.800774+00:00
  • Observation: dba698ff3377e1cc975350882a30ebccae7d8654f6895dabbad08391d61b522e

Source update: openrouter-models

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
  • Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:04.487280+00:00
  • Observation: e9c7d6d19f72b85358f6df6d9057099988facad4c35d637412a9432ba6eb64fb

Source update: anthropic-sonnet-launch

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

Source update: anthropic-sonnet-launch

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

OpenRouter per-token fields moved since 20 October

Endpoint comparison of the OpenRouter models document from 20 October (artifact cb0d1f741ce1dc8560d0ea8df0ff3208c7230057b78bc056333fd70f992c1ceb) to 30 October. Prompt and completion are USD per token as stored. Only ids still present on both days, and only fields whose ratio is at least 2, are listed. Several of these fields moved by a large factor and reversed on intermediate days, so the path is not one price change. deepseek/deepseek-v4-pro prompt 0.000000371664 to 0.0000016 and completion 0.000000743328 to 0.0000032. deepseek/deepseek-v4.1-flash completion 0.00000012 to 0.0000005. nvidia/nemotron-3-super-120b-a12b prompt 0.00000008 to 0.0000003, completion 0.00000045 to 0.0000024, context 262144 to 1048576. qwen/qwen3.8-27b prompt 0.00000004 to 0.00000015. xiaomi/mimo-v2.5 prompt 0.00000014 to 0.0000004 and completion 0.00000028 to 0.000002. z-ai/glm-5.2 prompt 0.00000062 to 0.000000006 and completion 0.00000242 to 0.000007. z-ai/glm-5.3 completion 0.0000014 to 0.0000036. ~deepseek/deepseek-v4-flash-latest prompt 0.0000000065 to 0.0000000388. ~openai/gpt-terra-latest prompt 0.000002 to 0.000001 and completion 0.000012 to 0.000005. Smaller moves, including google/gemma-3-4b-it completion and xiaomi/mimo-v2.5-pro completion, are left in the artifacts. This snapshot does not update the September frontier ledger.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://openrouter.ai/api/v1/models
  • Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:04.487280+00:00
  • Observation: f89f102c67d1ad25ccc8e54e9f7bfd0674fefb37d6d5d602b034f170e1318b82

Source update: anthropic-pricing

Source content was captured or changed. Extracted claims require editorial review.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://claude.com/pricing
  • Observed: 2026-10-29T20:56:09.655031+00:00
  • Observation: f96121b5580d195d4dd099b86ec2263d53401e3cabcb494ec3fb8155dd013eea

Anthropic pricing page introduces Ultra

The 30 October capture of Anthropic's pricing page presents Max at $100 a month and a new Ultra plan at $200 a month. The 20 October capture, and each capture from 21 October through 29 October, still presented Max 5x and Max 20x and did not contain the word Ultra. On 30 October, Ultra is described as having no 5-hour limit for verified accounts, 10× Pro usage every week, and $200 a month in platform credits, against $100 on Max. Pro copy names Fable paid with usage credits, and Max copy says Fable is included up to half the weekly limit. This is a reading of visible page text, not an independent price list, and it does not show a changed Sonnet, Opus, or Haiku token price.

  • Status: reported; source kind: primary
  • Source: https://claude.com/pricing
  • Observed: 2026-10-30T20:38:03.163405+00:00
  • Observation: fa7e93faf943cb94b02983b43b6aa2d7d81b5a7c10ed05576f4efe6e4cec243e

Reviewed reading

Week 44 runs Monday 26 October through Sunday 1 November. This draft stops at the 30 October captures. 31 October's 21:30 Europe/Berlin job had not run when these claims were written.

Decision-relevant readings already listed above:

  • 27 October: GPT-6.1 Terra and Terra Pro, with batch ids, plus eight dropped ids (dba698ff3377e1cc975350882a30ebccae7d8654f6895dabbad08391d61b522e); Ternary Bonsai 2 9B the same evening (76577fc1d15cc98ec285f46b9d987ee0867c15e9b683b9d1c982fcefdc33d74e).
  • 28 October: Particle-1 added; GPT-4 Turbo, o1, o1-pro, o3-mini, o4-mini, and one Qwen thinking id removed (96eb57948f37010512cd5fb3a0faed2ebab3b58c00f8585c2eb03be00e35b835). Particle-1's per-token fields were lower again on 30 October.
  • 29 October: Solar Pro 3 removed (b5d13a9bdea81682f00a4634786f7c2081a35fe72c29466f6c6d27a1d0a1b8c6).
  • 30 October: Anthropic pricing page introduces Ultra at $200 a month beside Max at $100 (fa7e93faf943cb94b02983b43b6aa2d7d81b5a7c10ed05576f4efe6e4cec243e). OpenRouter endpoint price comparison against 20 October (f89f102c67d1ad25ccc8e54e9f7bfd0674fefb37d6d5d602b034f170e1318b82).

The Sonnet page and the Sonnet 5 launch note, compared with 20 October, changed the footer mission sentence. No product claim was extracted.

Editorial follow-up

Do not patch frontier/ledger-2026-09.md from this pass. Ultra is a plan on the pricing page. GPT-6.1 Terra is an OpenRouter id. The per-token moves are an endpoint snapshot with reversals in between. Source-update sections remain unextracted change notices.