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intelligence-radar/digests/weekly/2026-W37.md
tegwick d0e6438609 Integrate founding explorations and bootstrap operational radar 
Assistant: codex
Assistant-Model: gpt-6-astra
Assistant-Session: 01a09c77-b1a9-7eb3-b501-6cb24b458c97
2026-09-13 22:42:09 +02:00

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Imported exploration, 2026-09-13. Source claims have not been independently verified by this repository. See integration review.

Weekly digest — 2026-W37 (7–13 September)

Inaugural week. Ranked by decision relevance for Intelligence Radar.

  1. Artificial Analysis rebased the Intelligence Index twice (v4.2 then v4.3). Terminal-Bench 4.0 and AutomationBench-AA entered the composite. Headline: Claude Fable 5.1 and GPT-6 Astra tied at 53. Old scores are not comparable.
  2. GPT-6 Astra launched (3 Sep). Computer-use and cybersecurity-preparedness framing; wrapper-sensitive ARC-AGI-3 numbers; capacity constraints on Pro plans reported later in the week.
  3. Claude Fable 5.1 generally available (1 Sep); Mythos 5.1 restricted. Cache-read price cut changes long-agent economics.
  4. Gemini 3.8 Flash GA; Gemini 3.5 Pro still missing. Google’s usable frontier is a Flash-class model this week.
  5. DeepSeek V4.1 Flash + Cognition SWE-2 (10 Sep). Coding-agent Pareto moved; Budget/Efficient picks for software work must be revisited.
  6. Grok 4.7 did not ship. Grok 4.6 remains the xAI reference.
  7. Meta Muse Spark 1.3 continues Meta’s closed frontier line at aggressive prices on some trackers.
  8. Measurement politics: harness gaps (ARC-AGI-3) are now large enough to mislead buyers. Radar rule: name the harness.
  9. Policy: US leadership acknowledges rising risk without a bill; Amodei slowdown proposal; cross-border distillation allegations. No new binding global rule this week.
  10. Science-of-intelligence stack is alive independently of product launches: NeuroAI foundational-brain proposals, complementary cognitive/machine AI frameworks, latent-space recurrent architectures.

Frontier one-pager

Joint general Frontier: Fable 5.1 ↔ Astra.
Default Efficient generalist: Opus 5 (task-dependent: Terra or Grok 4.6).
Default Budget with evidence: DeepSeek V4.1 Flash / GLM-5.3-Flash depending on jurisdiction.

Compendium edit proposals

  • Add “harness is part of the model” as a measurement principle. (Accept.)
  • Do not add Grok 4.7 until a model card exists. (Accept.)
  • Watch Pathway BDH as an architecture outlier, not a product Frontier. (Accept.)