tegwick
2c2a6073ff
T06: optimization-case schema, fail-closed evaluator, cadence and decision template. Every option including the baseline must present all ten decision fields; one unknown blocks the comparison. Validated on the storage case (Hetzner computes and loses to Scaleway by EUR 29.14/month on operator labour; Host Europe blocks on four named gaps) and on the non-storage reef-railiance k3s rightsizing case (low utilization is real, but nothing is costable while the railiance01 price is unknown). T07: portfolio report over coverage, lifecycle, utilization, cost, renewals, risks, open cases, and next actions, derived only from committed evidence. Portfolio spend is reported null rather than as a partial sum, unattributed cost is a named list rather than a spread, and unmeasurable resources are reported rather than dropped. RESOURCE-WP-0003 is finished; both cases remain blocked_on_evidence against live delegated records in other repositories. RESOURCE-WP-0002 is untouched. Co-Authored-By: Claude Opus 5 <noreply@anthropic.com>
106 lines
6.9 KiB
Markdown
106 lines
6.9 KiB
Markdown
# Expanded object-storage comparison — 2026-08-10
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This adds self-managed S3-compatible storage and four large-cloud price points
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to the managed-provider comparison. All recurring totals include operator labor
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at €60/hour. Taxes are excluded. USD prices use the 2026-08-10 ECB reference
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rate of 1 EUR = 1.1555 USD.
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## Self-managed reference architecture
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Garage is the reference open-source implementation. It has an S3-compatible
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API and is designed for distributed deployments. Garage explicitly says its
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single-node quick-start has no redundancy and must not be used in production.
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CNPG/Barman compatibility remains a live preflight requirement.
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The initial fixed-size estimates use locally attached storage:
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- Host Europe: 8 vCPU, 16 GB RAM, 400 GB NVMe at €37.99/month including 19%
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VAT, normalized to €31.92 net per node. Network traffic is flat-rate.
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- Hetzner: CX53, 16 vCPU, 32 GB RAM, 320 GB local SSD at €29.49/month plus
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€0.50 IPv4, net per node. The June 2026 price adjustment is used.
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Replication consumes the extra nodes; it does not multiply usable capacity.
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All nodes at one provider/location still share provider and site failure risk.
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| Topology | Infrastructure/month | Internal labor/month | Running total at 320 GB | Internal setup | External setup | Usable ceiling | Assessment |
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| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | --- |
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| Host Europe, 1 node | €31.92 | 2 h / €120 | €151.92 | 8 h / €480 | not quoted | 400 GB | no redundancy; not production |
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| Host Europe, 2 nodes | €63.85 | 3 h / €180 | €243.85 | 12 h / €720 | not quoted | 400 GB | replicated, but poor failure/quorum shape |
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| Host Europe, 3 nodes | €95.77 | 4 h / €240 | €335.77 | 16 h / €960 | not quoted | 400 GB | production candidate; single provider/site risk |
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| Hetzner, 1 node | €30.09 | 2 h / €120 | €150.09 | 8 h / €480 | not quoted | 320 GB | no redundancy; not production |
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| Hetzner, 2 nodes | €60.18 | 3 h / €180 | €240.18 | 12 h / €720 | not quoted | 320 GB | replicated, but poor failure/quorum shape |
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| Hetzner, 3 nodes | €90.27 | 4 h / €240 | €330.27 | 16 h / €960 | not quoted | 320 GB | production candidate; single location risk |
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These sizes cover the base scenario's first month (180 GB), but not its month
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12 estimate (458 GB). The calculator therefore returns `null` once the fixed
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capacity is exceeded. A larger Host Europe 800 GB node tier or Hetzner Volumes
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would be required; obtain account quotes before treating that expansion as a
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decision price. Hetzner also documents that its Volumes are already replicated
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across three physical servers, which means combining three Garage replicas with
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three replicated Volumes would buy nested redundancy at additional cost.
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## Managed object-storage price points
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Azure Blob and Google Cloud Storage are Barman-supported object stores but are
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not S3-compatible APIs. AWS and STACKIT are direct S3 API comparisons. The
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following table fixes stored volume at **320 GB**, uses the base request pattern
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(2,500 writes and 1,000 reads/month), and includes one 5 GB restore drill. This
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puts elastic per-GB products, Hetzner's bundled minimum, and Garage's fixed
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capacity on the same running-cost basis.
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| Service | Infrastructure at 320 GB | Internal labor/month | Running total at 320 GB | Internal setup | External setup |
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| --- | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: | ---: |
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| Scaleway Standard Multi-AZ | €5.14 | 1 h / €60 | **€65.14** | none | €0 assumed |
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| Hetzner Object Storage | €6.49 | 1.5 h / €90 | **€96.49** | none | €0 assumed |
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| AWS S3 Standard, Frankfurt | €6.80 | 1.5 h / €90 | **€96.80** | 4 h / €240 | €0 assumed |
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| STACKIT Object Storage Premium-EU01 | €8.52 | 1.5 h / €90 | **€98.52** | 4 h / €240 | €0 assumed |
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| Google Cloud Storage Standard, Frankfurt | €6.05 | 2 h / €120 | **€126.05** | 6 h / €360 | €0 assumed |
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| Azure Blob Hot ZRS, Germany West Central | €6.72 | 2 h / €120 | **€126.72** | 6 h / €360 | €0 assumed |
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Cloud request costs are negligible here; operator effort and egress assumptions
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matter more. Azure/GCP egress figures are explicit planning estimates rather
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than captured retail meters, so they must be refreshed in an account calculator
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before decision approval.
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"Internal setup" values the federation's own implementation time at €60/hour.
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"External setup" means paid consulting, vendor professional services, or a
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contractor. No such service is assumed for managed self-service onboarding. It
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is **not quoted**, rather than zero, for Garage because an external security or
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operations review may be prudent and no scope or rate has been obtained.
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The apparent difference between the earlier €62.89 Scaleway total and the
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normalized €5.14 infrastructure figure is reconciled in
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`docs/forecast-actual-control.md`: €62.89 is 180 GB infrastructure (€2.89) plus
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€60 labor, while €5.14 is infrastructure alone at 320 GB. The comparable 320 GB
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total is €65.14.
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## Interpretation
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Self-management does not win at this workload once even two hours/month of
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patching, monitoring, certificate handling, upgrades, disk replacement,
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capacity management, and restore support are valued. Three-node Garage costs
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roughly €330–€336/month plus €960 setup labor and still shares a provider/site
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failure domain. It may become attractive if the platform wants the capability
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for broader workloads, can amortize operations across them, or deliberately
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values open-source control above the cost difference.
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For this backup alone, Scaleway remains the lowest modeled managed option.
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STACKIT is especially interesting as a sovereign three-AZ S3-compatible
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alternative: its documentation now states automatic replication across all
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three availability zones, versioning, lifecycle rules, server-side encryption,
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bucket policies, and Object Lock.
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## Primary sources
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- Host Europe VM pricing: https://www.hosteurope.de/Server/Virtual-Server/
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- Hetzner June 2026 pricing: https://docs.hetzner.com/general/infrastructure-and-availability/price-adjustment/
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- Hetzner Volume replication: https://docs.hetzner.com/cloud/volumes/overview/
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- Garage single-node warning: https://garagehq.deuxfleurs.fr/documentation/
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- AWS S3 price list: https://pricing.us-east-1.amazonaws.com/offers/v1.0/aws/AmazonS3/current/eu-central-1/index.json
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- AWS egress/free allowance: https://aws.amazon.com/ec2/pricing/on-demand/
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- Azure retail pricing API: https://learn.microsoft.com/en-us/rest/api/cost-management/retail-prices/azure-retail-prices
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- Google Cloud Storage pricing: https://cloud.google.com/storage/pricing
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- STACKIT storage pricing: https://www.stackit.de/de/preise__trashed/cloud-services/iaas/stackit-storage/
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- STACKIT object-storage capabilities: https://docs.stackit.cloud/de/products/storage/object-storage/basics/introduction/
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- STACKIT network pricing: https://www.stackit.de/de/preise__trashed/cloud-services/iaas/stackit-network/
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- ECB daily FX rate: https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/eurofxref/eurofxref-daily.xml
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